Proposal: Curtis Lazar for Tobias Rieder

[Leafs87]

Giving up on Lazar this early would be a mistake IMO for Ottawa. I'm surprised so many Sens fans want to make this deal

 

[Kanneda]

Weird that this comes from a Coyotes fan...

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Weird that this comes from a Coyotes fan...

Why is that?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Giving up on Lazar this early would be a mistake IMO for Ottawa. I'm surprised so many Sens fans want to make this deal

Lazar's ceiling is what Rieder is now - a 30-40 point two-way forward that is an asset on the PK. I have my doubts that Lazar will ever produce more than 35 points in a season, which Rieder has already done.

If Rieder's contract demands aren't out of this world, it's an easy deal to make as a Sens fan. He's the significantly better player at this point in time, and it will probably stay that way.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Giving up on Lazar this early would be a mistake IMO for Ottawa. I'm surprised so many Sens fans want to make this deal

I agree. Too early to give up on Lazar.

 

[Leafs87]

Lazar's ceiling is what Rieder is now - a 30-40 point two-way forward that is an asset on the PK. I have my doubts that Lazar will ever produce more than 35 points in a season, which Rieder has already done.

If Rieder's contract demands aren't out of this world, it's an easy deal to make as a Sens fan. He's the significantly better player at this point in time, and it will probably stay that way.

I remember him at the world juniors he seemed to have a big impact there and I was thinking maybe he had more potential. But if everyone view him this way then I guess it makes sense

 

[rt]

Now it seems neutral fans are also pretty split.

 

[Kanneda]

Why is that?

Thought Rieder was untouchable and you were super high on him. Lazar doesn't look like the type of overpayment I thought you'd demand.
But if you ask me, the OP proposal is almost balanced. The only issue I see is that Ottawa might have more reasons to trade Lazar than Arizona to trade Rieder.

 

[edguy]

But if you ask me, the OP proposal is almost balanced. The only issue I see is that Ottawa might have more reasons to trade Lazar than Arizona to trade Rieder.

What?? Isn't it the other way around?
Rieder and Arizona have a contract dispute on their hands. That have caused many players to be traded.
Lazar is a 21 year old cost controlled player. But more importantly has a contract for this year. Ottawa litterally has 0 reason to move Lazar, other then to improve the roster

 

[rt]

What?? Isn't it the other way around?
Rieder and Arizona have a contract dispute on their hands. That have caused many players to be traded.
Lazar is a 21 year old cost controlled player. But more importantly has a contract for this year. Ottawa litterally has 0 reason to move Lazar, other then to improve the roster

Is there enough incentive in the OP for Ottawa to pull the trigger for those reasons?

 

[edguy]

Is there enough incentive in the OP for Ottawa to pull the trigger for those reasons?

Ive been in favor of this deal since the beginning.

I'm just say Arizona definitely has more reason to move Rieder then Ottawa does to move Lazar

 

[Neiler]

I remember him at the world juniors he seemed to have a big impact there and I was thinking maybe he had more potential. But if everyone view him this way then I guess it makes sense

Don't listen to these guys... the hive mind over at HF Sens seem convinced that Lazar will never amount to more than he is today. At age 21. You'd think this fanbase of all fanbases would know better (Stone, Hoffman).

Lazar might not be showing immediate signs of being a special talent but he's so young still and many will argue he was in the NHL a bit early. It's not worth it for Ottawa to trade him now unless it makes the team significantly better, not Rieder better.

 

[yoplait]

If Lazar gets more comfortable with the puck, he could be a great complementary piece to a winning team. I believe that at 21, he still has alot of time to do this, and think his potential is higher than Reider's. I wouldn't make this trade.

 

[rt]

How do people rate Rieder's upside?

 

[King In The North]

How do people rate Rieder's upside?

As a neutral fan is it crazy to say he compares to Frolik in my eyes?

 

[OCPenguin]

I have no idea why on earth Arizona would even think of that deal. Rieder >>>>> Lazar

 

[edguy]

I have no idea why on earth Arizona would even think of that deal. Rieder >>>>> Lazar

Thats a mad exaggeration. Rieder>Lazar RIGHT NOW. Lazar has the better upside though as well as being 2 years younger. They should max out as similar players

 

[rt]

Is it a reasonable expectation that Lazar doubles his point totals next season? I feel like that's a tall order. If Rieder improves his output by just 10% he's a .50ppg, >40pt player next season. If Curtis Lazar improves by 50% he's a 30pt player next year. I feel like that's a pretty conservative expectation for Rieder given his young age, and a pretty optimistic expectation for Lazar, given the huge percentage increase that represents.

So if you're that bullish on Lazar and that bearish on Rieder, it makes sense to hang onto Lazar. If your hopes are a little higher for Rieder and a little lower for Lazar next season and maybe the season after, this might make some sense if you're Ottawa and making moves like Zibanejad for Brassard already, and trying to make the playoffs. Cal it 40% jump for Lazar and 20% jump for Rieder and you're looking at 28pts vs 45pts for a 17pt difference. Not a ton of points but a 61% bump over Lazar in that scenario. Plus a very early 3rd rounder for a redundant piece is Borowiecki. Is that enough? Tough call.

 

[rt]

I have no idea why on earth Arizona would even think of that deal. Rieder >>>>> Lazar

Yotes are having trouble getting Rieder to sign the deal they want.

Yotes have a crap ton of LHS forwards coming up, many of whom will end up wingers like Rieder.

Lazar will be a little cheaper for a few years.

Lazar might eventually end up the better player or at least break even (maybe not for a long time and maybe not at all, but it's possible)

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Is it a reasonable expectation that Lazar doubles his point totals next season? I feel like that's a tall order. If Rieder improves his output by just 10% he's a .50ppg, >40pt player next season. If Curtis Lazar improves by 50% he's a 30pt player next year. I feel like that's a pretty conservative expectation for Rieder given his young age, and a pretty optimistic expectation for Lazar, given the huge percentage increase that represents.

So if you're that bullish on Lazar and that bearish on Rieder, it makes sense to hang onto Lazar. If your hopes are a little higher for Rieder and a little lower for Lazar next season and maybe the season after, this might make some sense if you're Ottawa and making moves like Zibanejad for Brassard already, and trying to make the playoffs. Cal it 40% jump for Lazar and 20% jump for Rieder and you're looking at 28pts vs 45pts for a 17pt difference. Not a ton of points but a 61% bump over Lazar in that scenario. Plus a very early 3rd rounder for a redundant piece is Borowiecki. Is that enough? Tough call.

The problem is that, all-in, this costs Ottawa too much money for a, frankly, marginal upgrade.

If Reider gets between 2.5-2.6 million, this will likely cost Ottawa an additional 1.5 million dollars once you find an 800-900K replacement for Borowiecki. There are many more places on the roster that need to be improved on Ottawa that get a much bigger upgrade for 1.5 million.

I think the gap is a lot closer than 17 points next season. Assuming Ottawa does have 1.5 million in extra budget, most would rather they simply sign a quality defensive Free Agent.

The third does nothing.

 

[Samsquanch]

Is it a reasonable expectation that Lazar doubles his point totals next season? I feel like that's a tall order. If Rieder improves his output by just 10% he's a .50ppg, >40pt player next season. If Curtis Lazar improves by 50% he's a 30pt player next year. I feel like that's a pretty conservative expectation for Rieder given his young age, and a pretty optimistic expectation for Lazar, given the huge percentage increase that represents.

So if you're that bullish on Lazar and that bearish on Rieder, it makes sense to hang onto Lazar. If your hopes are a little higher for Rieder and a little lower for Lazar next season and maybe the season after, this might make some sense if you're Ottawa and making moves like Zibanejad for Brassard already, and trying to make the playoffs. Cal it 40% jump for Lazar and 20% jump for Rieder and you're looking at 28pts vs 45pts for a 17pt difference. Not a ton of points but a 61% bump over Lazar in that scenario. Plus a very early 3rd rounder for a redundant piece is Borowiecki. Is that enough? Tough call.

Lazar had 20 pts so unless I'm missing something, he would be a 40pt player if you increased his production by 50% next season...

Just out of curiosity, who were Reiders linemates last season?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they were better linemates than Chris Neil (13pts), Alex Chiasson (17pts), or whatever other player was called up at that time to play on the 4th line with him.

Lazar looked excellent as Pageau's right winger during the second half of his rookie season, and that's where he will be next season, instead of the 4th line with Neil and company.

Hes apparently been working like a machine this off season at a variety of things, and coming in with a huge chip on his shoulder too because he's aware of the opinions out there that he's destined to be a plug.

I definitely wouldn't give up on him yet, and I can 100% guarantee you that Ottawa wouldn't either, at least not for Reider anyways. He's a born leader with a relentless work ethic, and will surprise a lot of people when he finishes developing.

 

[IPreferPi]

Lazar had 20 pts so unless I'm missing something, he would be a 40pt player if you increased his production by 50% next season...

That's not quite how math works. 50% of 20 points is 10, so a 50% increase in production results in 20 + 10 = 30 points.

 

[rt]

Lazar had 20 pts so unless I'm missing something, he would be a 40pt player if you increased his production by 50% next season...

Just out of curiosity, who were Reiders linemates last season?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say they were better linemates than Chris Neil (13pts), Alex Chiasson (17pts), or whatever other player was called up at that time to play on the 4th line with him.

Lazar looked excellent as Pageau's right winger during the second half of his rookie season, and that's where he will be next season, instead of the 4th line with Neil and company.

Hes apparently been working like a machine this off season at a variety of things, and coming in with a huge chip on his shoulder too because he's aware of the opinions out there that he's destined to be a plug.

I definitely wouldn't give up on him yet, and I can 100% guarantee you that Ottawa wouldn't either, at least not for Reider anyways. He's a born leader with a relentless work ethic, and will surprise a lot of people when he finishes developing.

Yep. There are some math issues there.

And obviously I'm proposing one of our really effective, awesome young bright spots for a reason; I like Lazar. I wouldn't offer up a tremendous young player like Rieder for a kid I didn't have faith in.

I wouldn't have moved Zibanejad and a 2nd for Brassard either. So in terms of your 100% guarantee, I'm obviously looking at this through a different lense. I'm looking at it from the perspective of a team who probably wouldn't have made that trade because they likely have a different outlook. I'm not suggesting you trade Turris for Jagr, here. It's a young guy for young guy offer.

Also, very early thirds do mean something; they mean legal tender at trade deadlines for teams looking to get over the hump and make a little noise. That's not Arizona. Is it Ottawa? It sure feels that way. But I'm an outsider without too much context.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I dunno. I'm hesitant to move Lazar. The kid has It. He's a winner. He has that Mike Fisher type leadership quality about him that can do wonders for a room. Plus, he put up decent numbers in junior while also being the defensive conscious of his team.

I'm hoping his lack of points is more to do with the lack of system in Ottawa and his bouncing all over the lineup for most of his short NHL career. I'd give the kid another year or two to see what he can do before thinking of moving him.

 

[Samsquanch]

Yep. There are some math issues there.

And obviously I'm proposing one of our really effective, awesome young bright spots for a reason; I like Lazar. I wouldn't offer up a tremendous young player like Rieder for a kid I didn't have faith in.

I wouldn't have moved Zibanejad and a 2nd for Brassard either. So in terms of your 100% guarantee, I'm obviously looking at this through a different lense. I'm looking at it from the perspective of a team who probably wouldn't have made that trade because they likely have a different outlook. I'm not suggesting you trade Turris for Jagr, here. It's a young guy for young guy offer.

Also, very early thirds do mean something; they mean legal tender at trade deadlines for teams looking to get over the hump and make a little noise. That's not Arizona. Is it Ottawa? It sure feels that way. But I'm an outsider without too much context.

I definitely understand the nature of the trade, and its does make a bit of sense for both teams in their current situations, but I still think its a no go for Ottawa.

If Lazar was traded it would be for a more established player imo, but even then I don't think Ottawa plans on squandering all of their youth in an all out push for the cup.

Zibanejad for Brassard was a bold, brilliant move imo. I can understand someone outside of the fan base not quite understanding the move, but it was necessary to help the Sens take the next step.

Outsiders don't realize just how badly Pageau outplayed Zibanejad when Turris went down last year (aka the time we needed him to step up the most). He was usually the biggest passenger on his line, and I don't see him being a regular 50pt center unless there are some big changes to his game.

Brassard brings leadership, high energy and playmaking skill, a left shot (only LH center on the team), and a track record of being a beast in big games. Aside from that, the Sens will have both Colin White and Logan Brown (centermen) knocking at the door sometime in the next few seasons, so the timing of this move just made a lot of sense. It simply wasn't the big sacrifice that it appeared to be.

But anyways, back to Lazar. I guess the bottom line on him is that the Sens would be foolish to trade him now, after his softmore slump, when his value is probably at the lowest it will ever be. It just doesn't make sense to do it for Reider, even though he is a very solid young player.

For all those writing Lazar off already, just some food for thought;


Ryan Kesler - 21yrs old - 82 10-13-23pts (2nd pro season)

Ryan Callahan - 22yrs old - 52 8-5-13pts (2nd pro season)

Jared Stoll - 21yrs old - 68 10-11-21pts (2nd pro season)

Justin Abdelkader - 22yrs old - 50-3-3-6pts (2nd pro season)

Shane Doan - 21yrs old - 79 6-16-22pts (3rd pro season)

Troy Brouwer - 23yrs old - 69-10-16-26pts (2nd pro season)

Shawn Horcoff - 22yrs old - 61-8-14-22pts (2nd pro season)

Mike Fisher - 21yrs old - 60-7-12-19pts (2nd pro season)

Curtis Lazar - 21 yrs old - 76 6-14-20pts (2nd pro season)

Lazar is very comparable to most of these guys listed here in both style of play and his potential.