Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Captain3rdLine]

It’s been a month since the original poll, a decent amount has happened since, and the draft is in less than a month. Original poll also excluded a viable option in Cooley as well as a couple of other reach options.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Delete

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Assuming most if not all trade it/others will be people looking to trade it but if that’s not the case and there’s another player you want the Devils to to take let us know who that is.

 

[Oneiro]

"This is a tough case to read, because we have a body of work that suggests he’s statistically not among top-tier players in his own league historically, but we have this immense skillset that is so unique in this draft class that it’s impossible to overlook. I think Slafkovsky is right in the mix with Cooley and Wright to be the best players in this class, and even though I know what the numbers say, I can’t get past the incredible ceiling I believe his size-and-skill package creates."

I'd basically say the opposite of this. I can't look past the numbers and think there's too much risk at 2 since I don't think him hitting that ceiling is likely.

Is there ever a scenario where you would look past numbers, though?

I'm not entirely convinced either but also don't see a "tools"-y player here. We're a team with cap/asset flexibility for a trade and our best players signed to objectively favorable contracts - you can take the risk to find out. The downside of what - another Zacha with more of a pulse? - is bearable and you have a long term middle six guy with size and pretty decent mitts.

 

[Hisch13r]

Is there ever a scenario where you would look past numbers, though?

I'm not entirely convinced either but also don't see a "tools"-y player here. We're a team with cap/asset flexibility for a trade and our best players signed to objectively favorable contracts - you can take the risk to find out. The downside of what - another Zacha with more of a pulse? - is bearable and you have a long term middle six guy with size and pretty decent mitts.

If we didn't drop and were 5-7 then I think about taking that risk. I'm not taking that risk at 2 when I think Cooley's a forward with a better chance to be an impact top 6er and I think Jiricek on the backend has some similar risk factors with an upside just as high and D>W. The TPS numbers are just simply awful for a 2nd overall pick. The WC performance made it so I'd be "fine" with it but there's still other guys I definitely take ahead of him.

I like Jiricek and Cooley more so I'd take them and go get Puljujarvi this offseason. I think there's a pretty decent chance that's the type of player you end up getting out of Slaf down the line.

 

[Saugus]

I'm still on board with Slafkovsky. A highly skilled winger with size and willingness to use it in board battles is exactly what we need.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm still on board with Slafkovsky. A highly skilled winger with size and willingness to use it in board battles is exactly what we need.

If you also think he is the best hockey player then fair. Taking a player because that is what you think the team currently needs though is flawed thinking. There's a guy available out there right now over in Edmonton who is that guy.

 

[Saugus]

If you also think he is the best hockey player then fair. Taking a player because that is what you think the team currently needs though is flawed thinking. There's a guy available out there right now over in Edmonton who is that guy.

I think in this case we are lucky that the need pick and the BPA pick are the same guy.

We should pick Slafkovsky and run away chuckling that the draft lottery has provided exactly half of our top 6 forward group.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

The interesting thing to me is that Slaf did not look like someone who's almost 230 pounds to me. He looked quite slim out there....must be no fat, all muscle kind of guy. Which ofc is a very good thing.

 

[The Wumpus]

I will be 100% thrilled with any of Slaf, Wright, Cooley, Nemec, or Jiricek. I always to not to get fixated on one guy and set myself up to be disappointed on draft day, which would be a lousy way to feel on Hockey Christmas.

 

[JimEIV]

I've been in camp Slaf as soon as I saw the card turned over on the most important day of New Jersey Devils hockey for the last 8 years

 

[Devilsfan92]

Draft Slavkovsky, unless the pick can be used to get Pasternak

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we didn't drop and were 5-7 then I think about taking that risk. I'm not taking that risk at 2 when I think Cooley's a forward with a better chance to be an impact top 6er and I think Jiricek on the backend has some similar risk factors with an upside just as high and D>W. The TPS numbers are just simply awful for a 2nd overall pick. The WC performance made it so I'd be "fine" with it but there's still other guys I definitely take ahead of him.

I like Jiricek and Cooley more so I'd take them and go get Puljujarvi this offseason. I think there's a pretty decent chance that's the type of player you end up getting out of Slaf down the line.

Two questions, and they are legitimate and sincere questions which really beg to be answered by anyone championing the arguments you are making.

1) How was Slafkovsky supposed to put up big numbers for TPS over a 20-game stretch where he received virtually zero top-6 minutes and virtually zero PP time?

2) How many points would Slafkovsky have scored if he were a member of the US-NTDP? Or in the CHL? Do we sincerely think Shane Wright's 94 points or Howard's US-NTDP-leading 80 points would have been out of reach?

Because these questions help answer the question of whether Slafkovsky is in the mix for #1 overall, or in a lower mix of players after Wright.

Personally, I watched Slafkovsky all year long and we can legitimately split his season into 5 parts.
1) Finland Jr. -- Slaf dominated
2) Initial stint as TPS bottom 6 F -- Slafkovsky struggled
3) Olympics -- Slafkovsky dominated
4) Final stint for TPS/Liiga Playoffs, Slaf finally playing some top 6 and PP -- Slafkovsky produced well and played well
5) World Championships -- Slafkovsky dominated

This is almost the classic description of why statistics need to be a supporting argument for a draft prospect and not the argument itself. Because, if you're overvaluing them, you are focusing in on precisely the aspect which could lead one to pass on the forward with the greatest upside in the 2022 class. Which leads us to question #2 -- do we really think Slafkovsky wouldn't have been in the 90 point range in the CHL? That he wouldn't have topped Howard (and Cooley and Gauthier) in scoring for the US-NTDP with 81 points? Would 90+ points have been out of the question, based on his dominance against older competition in the Olympics and WCs?

This is the same argument I made for Lucas Raymond, another great player. To me, Slafkovsky represents a rare opportunity for the Devils to get a player whose upside is just north of Mikko Rantanen, and that's a player the Devils need as much as anything. It's potentially devastating to pass on a player like this with a singular argument of "well, he didn't score enough in a 20 game stretch as a 3rd/4th liner in a men's league".

 

[MauDevils]

If we didn't drop and were 5-7 then I think about taking that risk. I'm not taking that risk at 2 when I think Cooley's a forward with a better chance to be an impact top 6er and I think Jiricek on the backend has some similar risk factors with an upside just as high and D>W. The TPS numbers are just simply awful for a 2nd overall pick. The WC performance made it so I'd be "fine" with it but there's still other guys I definitely take ahead of him.

I like Jiricek and Cooley more so I'd take them and go get Puljujarvi this offseason. I think there's a pretty decent chance that's the type of player you end up getting out of Slaf down the line.

I agree. I think Cooley ends up being the best player in the entire draft.

He would be my pick.

 

[bossram]

IIRC some tweet saying Slafv's shooting % and on-ice shooting % were weirdly low early on in his Liiga season - indicating his raw production is under-estimating his actual play there.

I was very impressed with him at the WCs and OGs, and his underlying xG numbers at the WCs were also excellent.

I'm not super high on Cooley. Honestly don't think he's really a better prospect than Nazar.

I could see an argument for Nemec or Jiricek, but to me, the clear 1/2 tier is still Wright and Slavkovsky, with Nemec just a bit behind.

 

[JimEIV]

I agree. I think Cooley ends up being the best player in the entire draft.

He would be my pick.

If I am going to miss, be "wrong"...

I'd 1000x rather be wrong with a Slafkovsky than Cooley.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Two questions, and they are legitimate and sincere questions which really beg to be answered by anyone championing the arguments you are making.

1) How was Slafkovsky supposed to put up big numbers for TPS over a 20-game stretch where he received virtually zero top-6 minutes and virtually zero PP time?

2) How many points would Slafkovsky have scored if he were a member of the US-NTDP? Or in the CHL? Do we sincerely think Shane Wright's 94 points or Ian Howard's US-NTDP-leading 80 points would have been out of reach?

Because these questions help answer the question of whether Slafkovsky is in the mix for #1 overall, or in a lower mix of players after Wright.

Personally, I watched Slafkovsky all year long and we can legitimately split his season into 5 parts.
1) Finland Jr. -- Slaf dominated
2) Initial stint as TPS bottom 6 F -- Slafkovsky struggled
3) Olympics -- Slafkovsky dominated
4) Final stint for TPS/Liiga Playoffs, Slaf finally playing some top 6 and PP -- Slafkovsky produced well and played well
5) World Championships -- Slafkovsky dominated

This is almost the classic description of why statistics need to be a supporting argument for a draft prospect and not the argument itself. Because, if you're overvaluing them, you are focusing in on precisely the aspect which could lead one to pass on the forward with the greatest upside in the 2022 class. Which leads us to question #2 -- do we really think Slafkovsky wouldn't have been in the 90 point range in the CHL? That he wouldn't have topped Howard (and Cooley and Gauthier) in scoring for the US-NTDP with 81 points? Would 90+ points have been out of the question, based on his dominance against older competition in the Olympics and WCs?

This is the same argument I made for Lucas Raymond, another great player. To me, Slafkovsky represents a rare opportunity for the Devils to get a player whose upside is just north of Mikko Rantanen, and that's a player the Devils need as much as anything. It's potentially devastating to pass on a player like this with a singular argument of "well, he didn't score enough in a 20 game stretch as a 3rd/4th liner in a men's league".

I agree with basically all of this. I still think I’d go with Nemec over him but I really don’t care that much about the Liiga stats. The international tournaments are just as big of a sample.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Two questions, and they are legitimate and sincere questions which really beg to be answered by anyone championing the arguments you are making.

1) How was Slafkovsky supposed to put up big numbers for TPS over a 20-game stretch where he received virtually zero top-6 minutes and virtually zero PP time?

2) How many points would Slafkovsky have scored if he were a member of the US-NTDP? Or in the CHL? Do we sincerely think Shane Wright's 94 points or Ian Howard's US-NTDP-leading 80 points would have been out of reach?

Because these questions help answer the question of whether Slafkovsky is in the mix for #1 overall, or in a lower mix of players after Wright.

Personally, I watched Slafkovsky all year long and we can legitimately split his season into 5 parts.
1) Finland Jr. -- Slaf dominated
2) Initial stint as TPS bottom 6 F -- Slafkovsky struggled
3) Olympics -- Slafkovsky dominated
4) Final stint for TPS/Liiga Playoffs, Slaf finally playing some top 6 and PP -- Slafkovsky produced well and played well
5) World Championships -- Slafkovsky dominated

This is almost the classic description of why statistics need to be a supporting argument for a draft prospect and not the argument itself. Because, if you're overvaluing them, you are focusing in on precisely the aspect which could lead one to pass on the forward with the greatest upside in the 2022 class. Which leads us to question #2 -- do we really think Slafkovsky wouldn't have been in the 90 point range in the CHL? That he wouldn't have topped Howard (and Cooley and Gauthier) in scoring for the US-NTDP with 81 points? Would 90+ points have been out of the question, based on his dominance against older competition in the Olympics and WCs?

This is the same argument I made for Lucas Raymond, another great player. To me, Slafkovsky represents a rare opportunity for the Devils to get a player whose upside is just north of Mikko Rantanen, and that's a player the Devils need as much as anything. It's potentially devastating to pass on a player like this with a singular argument of "well, he didn't score enough in a 20 game stretch as a 3rd/4th liner in a men's league".

Exactly, there’s no chance in hell Slafkovsky wouldn’t have been able to put up 80+ points or even as much as 100 in the CHL as a first line player or have put up comparable or better numbers on a talented NTDP team.

And there’s certainly no guarentee Cooley or even Wright would’ve been able to have decent production or even stick in a mens league in Finland.

It’s not like he doesn’t have an elite skillset or he has major flaws. He just didn’t get much opportunity and wasn’t able to produce in a good mens hockey league at 17-18 years old. It isn’t comparable at all to how these NA players do in juniors and the NTDP program.
And he showed what he can do when given the opportunity at the international level. He played great, was dominant, showed his skillset and produced very well.

 

[glenwo2]

In that case we might consider trading with Arizona, so they can get their franchise center, and we can take Slafkovsky as we originally planned, while picking up an extra asset. Or we might just take Wright.

Montreal probably won't do that though. So this is just a fun thought experiment.

The thing about trading with Arizona in that scenario is this : Why would they trade with us when they KNOW who we will pick?

Let's say MTL goes Cooley instead of Wright...It's a bit more obvious we are going Slaf than Wright so as incompetent as the management in Arizona is, even they would be like "Nah. We good" and just wait for them to be on the clock to get Wright.

 

[MartyOwns]

i’m fine with any of them, i don’t really care anymore.

 

[Nubmer6]

Let's say MTL goes Cooley instead of Wright...It's a bit more obvious we are going Slaf than Wright so as incompetent as the management in Arizona is, even they would be like "Nah. We good" and just wait for them to be on the clock to get Wright.

Or we can threaten to trade down with Seattle or Philly so they get Wright and we get one of the D.

 

[LouJersey]

Draft Slavkovsky, unless the pick can be used to get Pasternak

What would the Devils offer for Pastrnak in your opinion?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The problem with Pastrnak is that he needs to be extended. So it adds an extra layer of complication to the deal and makes it even less likely than it already was.

27 days till the draft!
Can’t wait to see this roster come together at draft and once free agency starts.

 

[Devilsfan92]

What would the Devils offer for Pastrnak in your opinion?

I don't really know what that would potentially cost, but playing armchair

#2, Holtz, Tatar/Johnsson/Zacha & #141

For

Pasternak & #91

 

[glenwo2]

What would the Devils offer for Pastrnak in your opinion?

Not enough, imo.

BTW, I don't think I've ever seen you around here before so nice to meet you.

You have to be the oldest member of these forums (and I here I thought Saugus was).

You're a true OG, sir.