Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[glenwo2]

This mock draft also has us taking Cooley.

Personally, I want to see us go with Slaf...though Cooley (or Wright if Montreal somehow passes on him) would be be the other pick that I'd at least be OK with. I don't really have interest in going with D.

Holy balls!

I would be LIVID at Fitz if he picked Cooley over Slaf.

Especially since Slaf not only is the BETTER PLAYER, he's also the "NEED" the Devils require for the team.

Devils do not "NEED" another center and Cooley is NOT Shane Wright.


Also, I love this reply by someone there in regards to this statement :

Two, the prospect power forward is not able to move as well as to keep up in pro hockey.

If anyone else can explain this logic, or even what this sentence means, let us know. Also, if your only knock on him is his mobility, that's not a great argument. For a power forward, Slafkovsky is actually widely regarded as a very good skater for his size so where are your receipts on his mobility being an issue? He certainly "has NHL speed" according to Pronman, for example, though he and Wheeler acknowledge that not many power forwards are very effective above 220 lbs. Could the bias towards Cooley be that he plays a 'premium position'? What good is Cooley if he's dishing to guys who can't score? That's what we have now and it ain't working.

 

[StevenToddIves]

His 31 games Liiga stats seems to be the only reason cited?

I mostly do not commented and just read opinions...and I suppose it's a valid argument but the same people seem to want to dismiss all his other games this year.

I don't know. He looks like a fantastic player with an amazing tool set to me.

Slafkovsky had 10 points in 31 Liiga games, then 7 in 18 playoff games. Comparatively, Brad Lambert -- who has been ranked higher than Slafkovsky by some of the more daft rankings -- had 10 points in 49 Liiga games and 0 points in 3 playoff games. Joakim Kemell had 23 points in 39 Liiga games, trumping all 2022 draft eligibles quite easily.

This can be found on eliteprospects.com, but the whole story cannot be told without context. Slafkovsky's first 20+ games in Liiga saw him in a bottom 6 role. Lambert started the season in a top 6 role, was demoted due to ineffectiveness, then switched teams to the Pelicans, where he once again found himself played primarily in the top 6. Kemell was top 6 all year long,

We also must ask, how many points does Slafkovsky score in the CHL or for the US-NTDP? Similarly, we must ask how many points do Shane Wright, Logan Cooley, Cutter Gauthier and Matthew Savoie score in Liiga?

This is where scouting must enter the picture, and the people drafting purely on statistics need to be utterly ignored. Slafkovsky's low ranking -- by far -- is by Byron Bader, who strictly ranks based on a statistical algorithm. Bader, who is perennially the least accurate of draft rankings in the business, has Slafkovsky at #16 and has essentially unleashed a negative PR campaign against the young Slovakian. But Bader also does not factor in Olympic play or World Championship play into his algorithm -- probably because he's not intelligent enough to figure out how to measure those stats in with the algorithm he already has.

Look, it's time to throw out the "10 points in 31 Liiga games" argument. Slafkovsky was a bottom 6 forward for over 20 of those games, and barely received PP time. He tore up the Finland juniors, the Olympics and WCs and played quite well in the Liiga playoffs. He's a top 2 pick for 2022, and deservedly so.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Holy balls!

I would be LIVID at Fitz if he picked Cooley over Slaf.

Especially since Slaf not only is the BETTER PLAYER, he's also the "NEED" the Devils require for the team.

Devils do not "NEED" another center and Cooley is NOT Shane Wright.


Also, I love this reply by someone there in regards to this statement :


If anyone else can explain this logic, or even what this sentence means, let us know. Also, if your only knock on him is his mobility, that's not a great argument. For a power forward, Slafkovsky is actually widely regarded as a very good skater for his size so where are your receipts on his mobility being an issue? He certainly "has NHL speed" according to Pronman, for example, though he and Wheeler acknowledge that not many power forwards are very effective above 220 lbs. Could the bias towards Cooley be that he plays a 'premium position'? What good is Cooley if he's dishing to guys who can't score? That's what we have now and it ain't working.

This is just another guy with an opinion based on false information which he needs to project upon his mock draft. I'm not sure it's worth paying attention to.

 

[njdevils1982]

Slafkovsky had 10 points in 31 Liiga games, then 7 in 18 playoff games. Comparatively, Brad Lambert -- who has been ranked higher than Slafkovsky by some of the more daft rankings -- had 10 points in 49 Liiga games and 0 points in 3 playoff games. Joakim Kemell had 23 points in 39 Liiga games, trumping all 2022 draft eligibles quite easily.

This can be found on eliteprospects.com, but the whole story cannot be told without context. Slafkovsky's first 20+ games in Liiga saw him in a bottom 6 role. Lambert started the season in a top 6 role, was demoted due to ineffectiveness, then switched teams to the Pelicans, where he once again found himself played primarily in the top 6. Kemell was top 6 all year long,

We also must ask, how many points does Slafkovsky score in the CHL or for the US-NTDP? Similarly, we must ask how many points do Shane Wright, Logan Cooley, Cutter Gauthier and Matthew Savoie score in Liiga?

This is where scouting must enter the picture, and the people drafting purely on statistics need to be utterly ignored. Slafkovsky's low ranking -- by far -- is by Byron Bader, who strictly ranks based on a statistical algorithm. Bader, who is perennially the least accurate of draft rankings in the business, has Slafkovsky at #16 and has essentially unleashed a negative PR campaign against the young Slovakian. But Bader also does not factor in Olympic play or World Championship play into his algorithm -- probably because he's not intelligent enough to figure out how to measure those stats in with the algorithm he already has.

Look, it's time to throw out the "10 points in 31 Liiga games" argument. Slafkovsky was a bottom 6 forward for over 20 of those games, and barely received PP time. He tore up the Finland juniors, the Olympics and WCs and played quite well in the Liiga playoffs. He's a top 2 pick for 2022, and deservedly so.

love this post... have a drink on me.


no, enjoy two









"have a drink on me, get stoned"

 

[Xirik]

I think one of the reason people are down on Slafs offensive upside is that compared to say Cooley he isn't going to have as many Highlight reel plays. After watching all of Slafs goals and assists this year I must say they are all pretty...boring? they aren't really mind blowing. He just seems to know where the best spot on the ice is and gets himself there at the right time. Being able to do stuff like that shows he can think the game well but it isn't "razzle dazzle".

Meanwhile Cooley's competitive will and Skating ability is easy as hell to see.

 

[OmNomNom]

would it be insane if mtl ended up taking cooley at 1?

 

[RememberTheName]

I think one of the reason people are down on Slafs offensive upside is that compared to say Cooley he isn't going to have as many Highlight reel plays. After watching all of Slafs goals and assists this year I must say they are all pretty...boring? they aren't really mind blowing. He just seems to know where the best spot on the ice is and gets himself there at the right time. Being able to do stuff like that shows he can think the game well but it isn't "razzle dazzle".

Meanwhile Cooley's competitive will and Skating ability is easy as hell to see.

My question surrounding Slaf is his poor passing ability (don't confuse this with vision), slightly slow decision making, and lack of anticipation. Slaf will no doubt have his fair share of highlight-reel plays in the NHL because he is so damn skilled. He has a top 3 set of hands in the draft, that is not at all a concern with him.

 

[glenwo2]

would it be insane if mtl ended up taking cooley at 1?

I would legit believe the Habs fans actually rushing the stage in anger at that point.

And Cooley would be like "What did I do??? HELP!!" and hide behind Daly (or Bettman) using him as a human shield.

But it would leave the Devils in quite the Conundrum......OR Fitz could have a deal in place with Arizona who wants either Slaf/Wright and we'd take whomever is remaining....

But this scenario is as likely to happen as Jon Gillies winning the Vezina.

My question surrounding Slaf is his poor passing ability (don't confuse this with vision), slightly slow decision making, and lack of anticipation. Slaf will no doubt have his fair share of highlight-reel plays in the NHL because he is so damn skilled. He has a top 3 set of hands in the draft, that is not at all a concern with him.

He's 18.

last I checked, I believe it is permitted for 18 year old NHL'ers to....oh I don't know.....IMPROVE?

 

[TBF1972]

It's interesting... Jeff Gorton during the last draft or the year before, I don't remember which, said something very similar to the point you are making...he said something like I never wanted to see a prospect that looked like a man.
And said something to the effect that a highly ranked immature player has much more room to grow and get better and that just about no 18 year is truly good enough for the NHL as is without that growth.

you read that and it made sense to you?

too bad you can't see it with jack hughes.

 

[glenwo2]

Good point. I don't know if I would quite say 5 years, but it could take some time for him to really put it all together. His shot is good, but not high end like you might expect from a winger billed as a high-end big offensive forward. I think his passing and pace will be good enough to still be an impact forward if he's riding shotgun with Hughes or Bratt, but it will likely take a few years for him to be a PPG kind of player I think he has the potential to be.

And that's why he should be drafted.

He'd be good NOW and fill a "NEED" *now*.

That he'll get even better as he matures will be an outstanding bonus that we'll bear witness down the road.

I know we live in an instant-gratification world but in this case, Slaf probably (at worst) won't spend more than a year in the AHL (if at all) before joining the team.

 

[ninetyeight]

Comparatively, Brad Lambert -- who has been ranked higher than Slafkovsky by some of the more daft rankings -- had 10 points in 49 Liiga games and 0 points in 3 playoff games. Joakim Kemell had 23 points in 39 Liiga games, trumping all 2022 draft eligibles quite easily.

Who has Lambert over Slaf?

Lambert doesn't score in a mens league (yet) but against players his age he looks like the best player on the ice. I think he's just one of those guys who will need more than few years to mature, but will eventually break out. If fans were drafting he'd probably slip all the way into round two, but nhl gms can see through the liiga production and I don't see him slipping past #15oa. If he plays in the U20 I think he's the top candidate for finnish points leader (over Kemell). Kemell with his incredible shot might score more in the NHL early on, but he's more one dimensional and doesn't have the kinda skating talent Lambert has.

 

[Guadana]

Who has Lambert over Slaf?

Lambert doesn't score in a mens league (yet) but against players his age he looks like the best player on the ice. I think he's just one of those guys who will need more than few years to mature, but will eventually break out. If fans were drafting he'd probably slip all the way into round two, but nhl gms can see through the liiga production and I don't see him slipping past #15oa. If he plays in the U20 I think he's the top candidate for finnish points leader (over Kemell). Kemell with his incredible shot might score more in the NHL early on, but he's more one dimensional and doesn't have the kinda skating talent Lambert has.

Mister WILL SCOOOUCHIIING.

And thats fun because Scouch love drivers and playmakers, and Slaf is good in both and has more versatility in that aspects.

 

[Jukurit]

Slafkovsky had 10 points in 31 Liiga games, then 7 in 18 playoff games. Comparatively, Brad Lambert -- who has been ranked higher than Slafkovsky by some of the more daft rankings -- had 10 points in 49 Liiga games and 0 points in 3 playoff games. Joakim Kemell had 23 points in 39 Liiga games, trumping all 2022 draft eligibles quite easily.

This can be found on eliteprospects.com, but the whole story cannot be told without context. Slafkovsky's first 20+ games in Liiga saw him in a bottom 6 role. Lambert started the season in a top 6 role, was demoted due to ineffectiveness, then switched teams to the Pelicans, where he once again found himself played primarily in the top 6. Kemell was top 6 all year long,

Average season icetimes:
Slafkovsky: 14:11, Kemell: 16:13, Lambert: 14:15
So not a huge difference there.

September (first month of Liiga) stats for Kemell and Slafkovsky:
Kemell: 8 GP, 6 G, 9 Pts, 16:00 TOI
Slafkovsky : 7 GP, 0 G, 1 Pts, 14:47 TOI
I wonder which of these guys should get more icetime from this point onwards. Hmm.

Also "Lambert started the season in a top 6 role", dafuq? No he didn't. He played 7 games in September and averaged 12:34, which is less than Slafkovsky.

 

[JimEIV]

you read that and it made sense to you?

too bad you can't see it with jack hughes.

Doesn't mean that you let the children play preschool in the NHL.

It highlights the point even more that Juck Hughes should not have been in the league in 2020 and probably shouldn't have in 2021 either.

 

[Team Concept]

Okay, so I wanted to get an idea of Slaf's icetime last season with TPS. The narrative is that he didn't get top 6 minutes at the start of the season was the reason why he didn't produce a lot of stats. So I expected to see a lot of games under 10 minutes of ice time. However, there were only 3 games where he got under 10 minutes. I am missing one game I believe from his game log as he should have 31 regular season games. He finished the regular season with 5 points in his last 6 regular season games. I don't know what to make of this, but its impressive that he played with men. However, I think he got decent ice time throughout the regular season and especially during the playoffs.

TPS Game Log

9-15-21 0-0-0 E 16:25
9-17-21 0-0-0 E 19:58
9-18-21 0-1-1 +2 19:52
9-22-21 0-0-0 +1 11:23
9-23-21 0-0-0 E 10:49
9-25-21 0-0-0 +1 13:07
9-29-21 0-0-0 -1 11:55
10-2-21 0-0-0 -1 13:20
10-22-21 0-1-1 +1 9:01
10-23-21 0-0-0 E 12:27
10-26-21 0-0-0 E 17:34
10-27-21 0-1-1 -1 14:11
11-6-21 0-0-0 E 12:16
11-19-21 0-0-0 E 12:36
11-25-21 0-0-0 -1 11:24
12-1-21 0-0-0 E 8:29
12-2-21 1-0-1 +1 14:07
12-4-21 0-0-0 E 12:03
12-9-21 0-0-0 -1 17:33
12-11-21 0-0-0 E 11:03
1-22-21 0-0-0 E 6:02
3-2-22 0-0-0 E 18:38
3-4-22 0-0-0 E 15:25
3-5-22 0-0-0 E 14:11
3-9-22 0-2-2 +1 18:29
3-11-22 0-0-0 E 16:47
3-12-22 1-0-1 -1 15:23
3-16-22 1-0-1 -1 16:04
3-20-22 1-0-1 E 17:50
3-22-22 0-0-0 +1 15:40
--------------------------------------
Playoffs:
3-27-22 0-1-1 +2 14:06
3-29-22 1-1-2 +1 16:18
3-31-22 0-0-0 E 20:03
4-2-22 0-1-1 +1 14:46
4-3-22 0-0-0 E 13:00
4-5-22 0-0-0 -1 12:49
4-6-22 0-0-0 -1 13:26
4-9-22 0-0-0 E 19:22
4-10-22 0-0-0 E 16:35
4-12-22 0-1-1 +2 16:44
4-13-22 0-0-0 E 14:10
4-15-22 0-0-0 -1 16:56
4-16-22 0-0-0 E 11:56
4-20-22 1-0-1 E 18:22
4-23-22 0-0-0 -1 16:24
4-25-22 0-1-1 E 16:05
4-26-22 0-0-0 E 16:18
4-28-22 0-0-0 E 11:00

Average season icetimes:
Slafkovsky: 14:11, Kemell: 16:13, Lambert: 14:15
So not a huge difference there.

September (first month of Liiga) stats for Kemell and Slafkovsky:
Kemell: 8 GP, 6 G, 9 Pts, 16:00 TOI
Slafkovsky : 7 GP, 0 G, 1 Pts, 14:47 TOI
I wonder which of these guys should get more icetime from this point onwards. Hmm.

Also "Lambert started the season in a top 6 role", dafuq? No he didn't. He played 7 games in September and averaged 12:34, which is less than Slafkovsky.

You beat me to it Jukurit. I wanted to see this mysterious lack of ice time in the first half of the season. I just posted his TOI game log.

 

[HBK27]

 

[hidek91]

if you consider all top 5 guys more/less equal, why do you think we take a center? Where are locked long term for a couple of years? You go to fill a need - either at wing or D.

Unless you do think Cooley is the best player then whatever, you take him.

But i'm not of the opinion that any of the these top 5 is head and shoulders above the others. Wright might be the safest with a higher floor. But otherwise they all have similar cost/benefit

That's what people on HFBoards may say but if people in scouting department say that, then we need a brand new scouting department. Scouts and GM have to compare top prospects, understand risks and rewards of each pick, assess their personality and project their development.

 

[Bcap88]

Whoever is 1 on his list is likely going 1 overall he’s 10 for his last 10

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I think one of the reason people are down on Slafs offensive upside is that compared to say Cooley he isn't going to have as many Highlight reel plays. After watching all of Slafs goals and assists this year I must say they are all pretty...boring? they aren't really mind blowing. He just seems to know where the best spot on the ice is and gets himself there at the right time. Being able to do stuff like that shows he can think the game well but it isn't "razzle dazzle".

Meanwhile Cooley's competitive will and Skating ability is easy as hell to see.

well you didn't watch the wc then. He certainly has flair to his game. A lot more than I expected honestly.

 

[Devils731]

That's what people on HFBoards may say but if people in scouting department say that, then we need a brand new scouting department. Scouts and GM have to compare top prospects, understand risks and rewards of each pick, assess their personality and project their development.

But what if those top 5 picks are more or less equal?

If I was a GM, I need my scouts to make strong calls but that strong call can be that certain groups of players have about the same overall value. That would signal me that I should explore moving down or select for organizational need.

I don’t need my scout saying player A is better than player B, when that’s not true, but the scout is expected to make a call.

 

[hidek91]

But what if those top 5 picks are more or less equal?

If I was a GM, I need my scouts to make strong calls but that strong call can be that certain groups of players have about the same overall value. That would signal me that I should explore moving down or select for organizational need.

I don’t need my scout saying player A is better than player B, when that’s not true, but the scout is expected to make a call.

I don't think bolded could be attributed to any existing draft class in the history (at the moment the draft was happening) but in a hypothetical scenario, let's make it more extreme and say that in 2013 MacKinnon is cloned 4 times and this fills out the top 5 meaning that you not only have more or less equal prospects but ideally equal, the correct decision would be to trade down to 5th overall pick.

The problem is that the scenario above all contains centers, however there's also higher risk attached to drafting a defenseman because they're harder to project so in reality if you have centers/wingers/defensemen/goalies in your top 5, then they can't be equal because by the nature of the position you're risking more when drafting a d-man using a top pick.

In other words, the example of top 5 picks being more or less equal can exist only in theory.

 

[Saugus]

Whoever is 1 on his list is likely going 1 overall he’s 10 for his last 10

I wonder if at a certain point now, McKenzie's rankings are actually influencing teams' thinking with the #1 pick. Like it's a self-fulfilling prophecy because the team with the #1 pick sees McKenzie reporting who the consensus top pick is and don't feel they can go against that.

No way to prove or disprove that this is a factor, but I think it would be interesting if teams did consider that.

 

[Bcap88]

I wonder if at a certain point now, McKenzie's rankings are actually influencing teams' thinking with the #1 pick. Like it's a self-fulfilling prophecy because the team with the #1 pick sees McKenzie reporting who the consensus top pick is and don't feel they can go against that.

No way to prove or disprove that this is a factor, but I think it would be interesting if teams did consider that.

My guess is he is just that connected he has the majority of the teams draft boards. Two years ago he was tweeting the picks live before they happened

 

[My3Sons]

love this post... have a drink on me.


no, enjoy two









"have a drink on me, get stoned"

Lonnie Donegan?

 

[NjDevsRR]

you read that and it made sense to you?

too bad you can't see it with jack hughes.