Cryptocurrencies Part III - We ran as if to meet the Moon

[beowulf]

Well we definitely just fundamentally disagree about the account freezing. I do think governments will all try and make their own CBDC's, crypto backed by their central banks. China already has. Of course for someone like me, that's just even scarier. It's even easier for the government to interfere with your money in a digital environment created by them and privacy would be non-existent.

There are also lots of governments around the world less trustworthy than Canada. If your finances are reliant on the approval of a dictator, for me it's easy to see the appeal of Bitcoin and a store of wealth outside the view of the government.

Ohh indeed I am indeed looking at it from the viewpoint of living in a western country that is generally democratic and free and not somewhere like China or some 3rd world country.

As for a Canadian government crypto...it will come in time. They are already creating a CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency which is supposed to be a digital Canadian dollar that will be fully accepted by banks and retailers in time.

 

[S E P H]

It’s an insanely niche transactional method propped up by COVID stimulus checks and being able to easily gamble on your phone.

Are you talking about crypto? I think you're underselling it, when Biden won the presidency that's when all investments (including stocks and crypto) went straight into a bear market. During Bear Markets, that is when you have technological sectors lose value and commodities gain value (look at the gains oil made since the 2016 election and the losses Tesla/Amazon/Apple got). But honestly, all you have to do is make people believe that something has value and it will. Look at the art market right now, van Gogh sold like zero paintings when he was alive, but now you can't find one under a million. Another market that has gone absolutely nuts is the violin market with Stradivari violins ONLY going between 8 to 20 million. In 2017, the average price of one was 1.7 million pounds, now you would be lucky to get one in the 5 million range. Think about it, the entire US dollar is backed by gold and last seeing, the national debt for the USA is 31 trillion, you really think Fort Knox gold equals 31 trillion dollars? There is no way in hell, but the global economy would shut down if that truth ever came out and the USD would tank to an all-time low. That's why there has to be a belief about the power of gold and it backing the dollar.

There is a great PBS news article talking about Brasil. Supposedly a ton of Brasilians were getting into major debt crisis at a very early age, so the actual government funded a programme where they made this new form of currency to pay for groceries and other items so the economy wouldn't collapse. That currency had zero value when it was released, but the government made the population believe that it had value to be used and help prevent further debt for their citizens. The same psychological and sociological aspect applies both in NASDAQ and Binance, Bitcoin went to 69,000 dollars because people believed that it had that type of value. Autozone stock is currently at 2,500 a share (not a typo) because people believe the company has that value currently. It's all about belief regardless if it is a governmental bond or a currency, but that belief comes through what the cryptocurrency is doing now and what it's project is in the future. If you put your money into Dogecoin, then you'll be in trouble since there is nothing behind the coin that will give it long term value. However, Theta Network has deals signed with Samsung and Google making it have great potential as an Altcoin. It's the same way with FTT, which was the FTX coin. There was nothing about FTT that made it have long-term value since it only was a coin for FTX to get rich off of. It had no potential at all, just an exchange currency for the people who were using FTX. The same thing happened with Enron on Wallstreet, corruption exists in all platforms. There are a lot of stupid coins out there, there's a Trump coin, there's a Marilyn Monroe coin, and there are sports teams coins. It's your job to figure out what projects a coin has and if that will successfully impact the field in the future.

OK so a person can walk into any random retailer or restaurant and use their crypto directly to pay for my meal? Not having to buy some crypto debit card in advance. What about paying a property tax bill with crypto or a hydro bill?

As of yet, for the average person trying to pay for things using crypto is straight forward or as easy as cash, debit or credit cards, etc. The day that it is, then it might have a chance to supplant the current methods of payment. So you can talk down to me as much as you want and think I "don't know what you're on about" (lol wut?), but I know far more than you realize bub.

Mate, I don't care if you hate crypto. You can have whatever opinion you want, but I am just here correcting the wrong information regardless of who wrote it. Once again, Uphold allows you to use your crypto investment as a debit card, my cousin has been using it for the past two years to pay for everything that you would use a debit card for.

This is something that most don't understand. COVID stimulus checks are what DROVE the crypto boom in 2021.

I would be more concerned for crypto if it was just them who dropped big time, but very prominent stocks also have lost a ton in the last three or so years.

 

[Cas]

The U.S. Dollar is not backed by gold, and the gold reserves of the U.S. Government are public information. None of this is a problem, and the reasons cryptocurrencies are (or have) a problem are distinct.

 

[beowulf]

Mate, I don't care if you hate crypto. You can have whatever opinion you want, but I am just here correcting the wrong information regardless of who wrote it. Once again, Uphold allows you to use your crypto investment as a debit card, my cousin has been using it for the past two years to pay for everything that you would use a debit card for.

I would be more concerned for crypto if it was just them who dropped big time, but very prominent stocks also have lost a ton in the last three or so years.

Mate, where did I say I hate them? I said they are not what they were supposed to be, are full of scams and are more unstable than any stock and are not easy to sue a hard cash or debit/credit cards to make actual retail purchases etc. They are not backed by anything of value and go on massive swings of boom or bust far greater than any stock.

So you link to what is in essence a bank for crypto that is regulated and has fees just like a regular bank...huh...it's basically a trading app as you can also buy stocks using it. It also has a long list of countries is cannot be used in. They also have a cooldown period for moving funds to external crypto wallets, etc. Sound amazing...

 

[S E P H]

Mate, where did I say I hate them? I said they are not what they were supposed to be, are full of scams and are more unstable than any stock and are not easy to sue a hard cash or debit/credit cards to make actual retail purchases etc. They are not backed by anything of value and go on massive swings of boom or bust far greater than any stock.

So you link to what is in essence a bank for crypto that is regulated and has fees just like a regular bank...huh...it's basically a trading app as you can also buy stocks using it. It also has a long list of countries is cannot be used in. They also have a cooldown period for moving funds to external crypto wallets, etc. Sound amazing...

I think the majority of coins are awful coins that can follow the likes of FTX, but there are legit coins out there. They are unstable compared to stocks because coins are very new with a higher chance of making more money, I am very sure stocks were in the same boat when they were first created as well.

 

[Tonneau]

The U.S. Dollar is not backed by gold, and the gold reserves of the U.S. Government are public information. None of this is a problem, and the reasons cryptocurrencies are (or have) a problem are distinct.

The US Dollar is backed by something far more valuable than gold: the most powerful military in the world.

 

[HanSolo]

I was so tempted to come here and ask whatever happened to that Ethereum boom after the merge? But I'll have to come back and contribute more now that the thread had an activity spike lol.

That said If I listened to Crypto Bro about the merge I'd be banking on a promise that Ethereum would skyrocket after the merge and if make a killing if I invested. Instead, what happened was nothing. It continued on its previous trend. Glad I checked out on crypto a while back. Dipped my toe in, made a little money before the big crash, no involvement in the shit show state its in now.

 

[HanSolo]

Oh , you must be new in the crypto world. Those FUD articles have been coming out during every bear market..and guess what, it keeps on chugging along and it’s value keeps increasing. Of course i’m talking about just the big 2. Shame on you if you buy anything other than Bitcoin or Ether.


Um, it would take me all of 30 seconds to sell my crypto and get USD. If you arent smart enough to keep your crypto on a secure device and not use a trusted exchange I dont know what to tell you. You deserve to be scammed. Probably the same people who are being scammed on the phone to give out gift card numbers.


Same story and same dance as in every bear market. Then you all crawl away again when the bull market is back.

What in the hell do you mean keeps increasing? Ethereum peaked at almost 4k a coin and its been stable below 2k for half a year. Very close to sub 1k as of today. Bitcoin peaked at around 61k and has been holding steady at well below 20k for the past half year. If you want to be taken seriously at least be honest that the market has, at the very least, struggled significantly lately.

I mean I have way more thoughts on crypto than that, but as it stands to your argument, it's not "FUD" it's just fact. Saying crypto keeps increasing is beyond disingenuous.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

What in the hell do you mean keeps increasing? Ethereum peaked at almost 4k a coin and its been stable below 2k for half a year. Very close to sub 1k as of today. Bitcoin peaked at around 61k and has been holding steady at well below 20k for the past half year. If you want to be taken seriously at least be honest that the market has, at the very least, struggled significantly lately.

I mean I have way more thoughts on crypto than that, but as it stands to your argument, it's not "FUD" it's just fact. Saying crypto keeps increasing is beyond disingenuous.

Come back during the next bull run so you can see what “keeps increasing” means. Also if you want, you can look at what happened after each bear market

 

[CokenoPepsi]

I bought one of those world of women nfts...who knows if it will go back up next bull run or of it nfts will die off,

Going to start contributing back to all my investments after a bit of a spending spree on things the second half the year and rebuilding my day to day fund

 

[PeteWorrell]

Come back during the next bull run so you can see what “keeps increasing” means. Also if you want, you can look at what happened after each bear market

Funny you say that the stock market is a scam but you apply the same rules to crypto admitting that they are actually no different. I'll place my bet on the side of the market that is proven to actually create long term wealth instead of bubbles that can burst after a few years.

I was so tempted to come here and ask whatever happened to that Ethereum boom after the merge? But I'll have to come back and contribute more now that the thread had an activity spike lol.

That said If I listened to Crypto Bro about the merge I'd be banking on a promise that Ethereum would skyrocket after the merge and if make a killing if I invested. Instead, what happened was nothing. It continued on its previous trend. Glad I checked out on crypto a while back. Dipped my toe in, made a little money before the big crash, no involvement in the shit show state its in now.

The best thing about the merge was make GPUs affordable again. Miners can go pound sand.

 

[HanSolo]

Come back during the next bull run so you can see what “keeps increasing” means. Also if you want, you can look at what happened after each bear market

So. It's not increasing.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

So. It's not increasing.

Indeed it is. Each cycle.

 

[HanSolo]

Indeed it is. Each cycle.

Again, that's a disingenuous way to put it. A year ago the top currencies were valued substantially higher than they are today. In that year, there have been significant market crashes. Just using the easy examples, putting Bitcoin and Ethereum at their best, they were fluctuating between 50-60k and 2.5-3.6k. Since crypto crashed out, Bitcoin has not established any baseline trend that its on its way to being steady over 20k, and Ethereum rarely stays above 1.5k for long. I'm not an overly experienced investor, but I know how to read these market histories. Many people who invested heavily in the last real "bull" market and refused to sell partially for their own hopium and partially from crypto evangelists constantly espousing "HODL" and preaching a future bear run with values soaring which still hasn't happened after a year. Those people have been stuck in the red for that year and can't get their ROI much less withdraw without taking heavy losses.

At best you could say that crypto is very slowly recovering and it will take a long time, along this current trend to even get back to where it was.

 

[HanSolo]

Anyway I'd want to respond to multiple posters but there's too many topics to cover. Point is, I just don't see the long running vitality in cryptocurrency. There's utility in blockchain cryptosecurity in some more limited use cases, but cryptocurrency itself feels like a desperate push to monetize and capitalize on the expansion the applicability of this tech innovation for something that is ultimately not needed.

It'd be going to far to say the solutions crypto aims to present are for problems that don't exist, but the current Web3 dream of unregulated and indiscriminate financial freedom and equality is rendered futile by 1) the heaviest hitters in the market manipulating said market being the most affluent of the already established global financial institution 2) fraudsters and criminals who scam people left and right and have ostensibly ruined the NFT market (among other factors, including market oversaturation, rug pull or half assed projects, and low use case utility across the board) 3) the toxic positivity of crypto evangelists on a daily overdose of hopium who keep espousing said web3 utopia and how crypto will go to the moon while simultaneously shutting down even the slightest hint of criticism or concerns and dismissing/disregarding anything that isn't blind and total positivity as "FUD" even in light of a market that is really struggling right now. You don't have to look farther than this thread to find an example of that.

And for what? We're told that crypto is supposed to present financial independence and unencumbered opportunities to attain wealth and financial security while simultaneously being told that the early adopters were the smart ones for getting in early. They weren't smart, they were obscenely wealthy. And even if that's true, that means there's a significant roadblock to ordinary people making meaningful gains now. Oh no but wait, crypto is still increasing and will recover. It's not volatile, you can still be smart and get in now before prices skyrocket again! Forget that as soon as real world market trends indicated that their might be a global recession, crypto value tanked across the board.

And that's because, as discussed in this thread, things like stocks are based on tangible market factors. What is crypto based on? Hype and the promise of Web3 application functionality. And because my girlfriend has done art for NFT projects I've spent the better part of the past year around crypto people so I'm always asking them to explain that element to me. I get 1 of two general answers: Either they don't know anything about what Web3 will actually look like and they go off on diatribes about how advancements in technology are always hard to imagine or conceive until the most innovative of us actually develops something, or the Web3 use cases I hear are almost always for niche technical applications that most ordinary people would never be interested in and they generally have de minimis/niche utility in serving corporate needs. I have a friend couple that are really just wonderful people but they're tech people and they're investing their entire future in creating their own metaverse. And this is just a husband and wife living less than ten minutes away from me. They're not the only ones. As it stands the flagship metaverse, Facebook's "Meta" is significantly failing to convince ordinary people that there's much of a point in getting involved and using it. Imagine when every independent tech dev in the world tries to put out their own metaverse at the same time and no one is in them.

And this is where it gets into solutions for problems, that maybe do exist but they're not significant enough to warrant unwavering faith in crypto for its tenuous potential for solving those problems. Especially not at the expense of our environment. I'm not going to direct quote back to that discussion, but it's not a question of how clean one coin is versus another. It's a question of how the totality of cryptomining is having a measurably negative environmental impact for something that we don't need. Traditional manufacturing is harmful to the environment too and our species has to figure out a way to mass produce necessary products in a cleaner way if we want to survive, but at least most manufacturing is for things people need or at the very least can use for something. Crypto is only adding fuel to the wildfire on a product that we can all live just fine without. It hasn't created anything new and it hasn't presented as an optimal replacement for anything that already exists other than methodology for money laundering.

Crypto, in my view, just seeks to create a tech based world replete with benefits and use case applications that ordinary people just don't need and many that they would get little to no utility out of. And it's backed by the wealthy seeking to get wealthier, criminals looking to exploit people, tech devs looking for alternative ways to earn a living, and cryptobros who are so invested in this alternative financial space that they make the majority of their personality and motivation this dedication to hyping up crypto at every turn to do their part to foster the development and growth of their investments while defiantly ignoring every struggle the market faces, or any criticism or concern regarding its longterm vitality.

Like I said, I was pretty skeptical going into it, and more than a year of watching how this space operates, I don't see it as anything more than downright silly and to the extent that it speeds up the destruction of our environment, dangerous. f*** crypto.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Indeed it is. Each cycle.

What will have to happen to lake ETH and BTC rise above $3500 and $35000 again respectively? When do you foresee that happening? Who is going to invest in this again?

We’ve been waiting for this utility to materialize for years now and we’re getting nada, even after ETH’s big changes

 

[TheDoldrums]

It's a question of how the totality of cryptomining is having a measurably negative environmental impact for something that we don't need. Traditional manufacturing is harmful to the environment too and our species has to figure out a way to mass produce necessary products in a cleaner way if we want to survive, but at least most manufacturing is for things people need or at the very least can use for something. Crypto is only adding fuel to the wildfire on a product that we can all live just fine without. It hasn't created anything new and it hasn't presented as an optimal replacement for anything that already exists other than methodology for money laundering.

Spoken like someone who can't imagine a world where you can't trust your government.

"Money laundering" is not a bad thing if you live under a regime that can confiscate your life savings based on political beliefs . Having an alternative store of wealth can sure feel like a necessity if your country is going through rapid inflation. If you're a refugee fleeing your country, keeping your savings on a USB stick is probably a lot more practical and feasible than going through the central banking system in a crisis.

We as free people absolutely do need the ability to transact and hold capital outside of the governments grip and in todays world Bitcoin is a lot more practical than a bunch of gold bars.

 

[beowulf]

Guess the EU central bank is not a fan of crypto

European Central Bank Says Bitcoin Is On 'Road to Irrelevance'

High-ranking members of Europe’s preeminent central bank said that trading the world’s most-used cryptocurrency is more like gambling.

gizmodo.com

We can now add the European Central Bank to the ranks of high-ranking crypto skeptics, with high-ranking execs going further to say that crypto shouldn’t be legitimized by any government or major financial institution.

In a blog post written by ECB execs Ulrich Bindseil, director general of market infrastructure, and Jürgen Schaaf, an ECB markets advisor, the pair said that bitcoin is currently experiencing an “artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance.” Bitcoin’s precipitous fall in price over the past few years and the implosion of major crypto institutions—most recently the collapse of FTX and its subsequent fallout—shows that even if the price of bitcoin is stabilized, that won’t stop the tide from turning, according to the authors.

Spoken like someone who can't imagine a world where you can't trust your government.

"Money laundering" is not a bad thing if you live under a regime that can confiscate your life savings based on political beliefs . Having an alternative store of wealth can sure feel like a necessity if your country is going through rapid inflation. If you're a refugee fleeing your country, keeping your savings on a USB stick is probably a lot more practical and feasible than going through the central banking system in a crisis.

We as free people absolutely do need the ability to transact and hold capital outside of the governments grip and in todays world Bitcoin is a lot more practical than a bunch of gold bars.

The problem is that far more is for illegitimate or downright illegal purposes from drugs to weapons to tax evasion and can't forget terrorism funding.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Spoken like someone who can't imagine a world where you can't trust your government.

"Money laundering" is not a bad thing if you live under a regime that can confiscate your life savings based on political beliefs . Having an alternative store of wealth can sure feel like a necessity if your country is going through rapid inflation. If you're a refugee fleeing your country, keeping your savings on a USB stick is probably a lot more practical and feasible than going through the central banking system in a crisis.

We as free people absolutely do need the ability to transact and hold capital outside of the governments grip and in todays world Bitcoin is a lot more practical than a bunch of gold bars.

The large majority of people bought into the crypto space because the price was going up and they thought they were going to get rich quick, not because they were trying to protect themselves from government tyranny.

 

[beowulf]

The large majority of people bought into the crypto space because the price was going up and they thought they were going to get rich quick, not because they were trying to protect themselves from government tyranny.

Indeed getting rich quick is always going to draw some people in.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The large majority of people bought into the crypto space because the price was going up and they thought they were going to get rich quick, not because they were trying to protect themselves from government tyranny.

I'm explaining why I see the need for Bitcoin. I can't control if others simply see it as a get rich quick play.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The problem is that far more is for illegitimate or downright illegal purposes from drugs to weapons to tax evasion and can't forget terrorism funding.

Sure and growing up I used the internet for porn a lot more than I used it for homework. That is the trade-off with technology, it can usually be used for "bad" just as much as good. Again, I'd just reiterate that "illegal" just means against the governments wishes, which isn't always a bad thing. The "terrorists" in Russia are trying to oust Putin.

 

[beowulf]

Sure and growing up I used the internet for porn a lot more than I used it for homework. That is the trade-off with technology, it can usually be used for "bad" just as much as good. Again, I'd just reiterate that "illegal" just means against the governments wishes, which isn't always a bad thing. The "terrorists" in Russia are trying to oust Putin.

So nothing should be illegal then. I mean if it only because it is against government wishes we should just allow a world in which anything goes.

 

[HanSolo]

Spoken like someone who can't imagine a world where you can't trust your government.

"Money laundering" is not a bad thing if you live under a regime that can confiscate your life savings based on political beliefs . Having an alternative store of wealth can sure feel like a necessity if your country is going through rapid inflation. If you're a refugee fleeing your country, keeping your savings on a USB stick is probably a lot more practical and feasible than going through the central banking system in a crisis.

We as free people absolutely do need the ability to transact and hold capital outside of the governments grip and in todays world Bitcoin is a lot more practical than a bunch of gold bars.

Yeah I'm not going to rehash what other people have covered but I agree that there's benefit there. And no I'm not speaking from the perspective of someone with unshakeable faith in government.

But as said, there's a lot of potential for criminal exploitation with anonymous and unregulated currency and transactions of the same. It becomes a point of how much lesser between evils is a person picking from under their individual circumstances? Couple that with many exchanges being outright fraud schemes or others that generally struggle to permit withdrawals these days with the general reality that these currencies are based primarily on speculation and intangible factors, and even the use case of assets outside of the government's grasp is not bulletproof.

And to take it a step further, with onchain ownership and transactions being reviewable on certain chains, there's plenty of potential for an oppressive government, with sufficient motivation, to regulate and restrict crypto transactions on their own soil, at least as far as incoming transfers go. It'll be some time until they develop policy and procedures to do that, but it's conceivable.

 

[TheDoldrums]

And to take it a step further, with onchain ownership and transactions being reviewable on certain chains, there's plenty of potential for an oppressive government, with sufficient motivation, to regulate and restrict crypto transactions on their own soil, at least as far as incoming transfers go. It'll be some time until they develop policy and procedures to do that, but it's conceivable.

I think in time every government will issue their own CBDC, a cryptocurrency backed by their central bank. It has already happened in some places and seems inevitable given we are increasingly becoming a cashless society. I do think there are a lot of scary possibilities with that model, which is why I value maintaining a decentralized alternative.