NHC Cone Heads in a New Direction
Posted on August 12, 2024
Robbie Berg, Warning Coordination Meteorologist; Daniel Brown, Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit; Larry Kelly, Hurricane Specialist
You may have seen our
announcement back in February that we at the National Hurricane Center would start producing an experimental version of the cone of uncertainty in mid August that depicts coastal
and inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental United States. Well that time has come, and even though we don’t currently have a tropical cyclone threatening the continental United States, we want to refresh everyone on some of the things you’ll notice about the new cone, and some of the things that you should be aware of when using it, particularly since this will be the biggest change made to the NHC cone graphic since 2017.
But first a comment about the new cone being “experimental.” In National Weather Service (NWS) vocabulary, “experimental” means that a potential new product or service is being tested by the NWS, and partners and users are encouraged to provide feedback during a comment period. This also means that the product may, at times, be a little rough around the edges, may not be available on a consistent basis, and probably should not be used yet for critical support decisions. After the comment period is over, we go through your feedback to determine (1) should the product go operational, (2) if it does go operational, are there things in the product we need to modify, or (3) do we need to create an updated version of the product and open up another comment period. Think of it like a pharmaceutical company testing a new drug: it sometimes takes multiple rounds of testing before the drug is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for human consumption. If you want the nitty-gritty on the public comment period, refer to the
NWS Public Information Statement or
description page on the NHC website. Comments can be provided in the
NWS Survey on the NHC Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone Graphic. One important note to keep in mind:
the current operational version of the cone will still be available and will not change during the experimental period. ...
Read & See more at: NHC Cone Heads in a New Direction | NOAANHC