OT: COVID-19- March 17 2020 - No politics! Read post #1

[JT AM da real deal]

They are banning evictions no?

No one is going to be evicted from anywhere. The courts are closed down effective Tuesday this week. So no one can remove anyone by law from their current residence. Under any circumstance. No cop could get an order to remove you. They may scare you but no one is moving anyone right now.

On mortgage front folks after talking by my CPA this morning, unless you have a CMHC mortgage which provides for interest fee 6 month period, everyone else is only maybe going to get deferral of payments for 6 months assuming we have lost your income. Interest will still accumulate and it will in fact take even longer to pay off your mortgage. Deferrals don't mean we don't pay interest or tax. We are going to pay both but it is deferred.

Same with 55B tax deferral. All it means is tax date moved back 1 month and for businesses back 2 months to pay tax. So you will feel like you have more cash, which you will if your income does not stop, but if you spend it then you are going to have a problem when it is due later.

and nothing has changed as of yet with EI except you don't have a 1 week grace period now. You are maxed out in Ontario at 573 per week. So if you make more than $55K per year and laid off then you will be hurt economically by the forced shutdown.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Not every Financial expert. I had my clients mostly out of the market, as the valuations were far too high, that eventually something was going to cause a problem.

Even today, valuations are well above normal over history, and certainly well above where any other Bear market ended. I would expect the Dow to end up, somewhere between 8,000-14,000 when this is all said and done.

We are always at risk of being wrong, the question you have to ask yourself being... which are you most comfortable with being wrong.

a) The market rebounding now, and you miss out on it?
b) The market losing another 35-60% from where it is, and you ride it all the way down?

Agreed all around. I'm just talking about the typical advice not to panic sell which, let's be honest, is what I'd be doing. I'll friggin hate myself if everything recovers within a year. But this is way more complicated for me because I'm 50, in a very good position to just pull the rip chord and bail out. I could spend the next few years winding the business down with income coming in so I don't have to touch my savings. I also have a lot of weird feelings about my business and whether clients are going to pay up or if there will be any work soon. It feels like the stars are aligning telling me to just walk away. One further complication is my son has had his eye on possibly taking my business over one day so I'd be having a tough conversation with him as well.

Sorry to give my life story but I'll bet a lot of people are dealing with tough decisions right now.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

I can only speak for myself but I have had the flu bad like 5 times I can remember in 55 years. I have been taking the shot since I turned 50 and this year was 1st time I got mild symptoms like the shakes and diarrhea for 3 days and then ongoing nasal congestion for like 2 months. It felt like a mild cold for quite some time nothing to stop me but I could not shake it until end of February. It was really weird because every other time I got flu I was down for a week but then was completely back to myself when it left.

 

[deletethis]

I had no clue that was the way it is. I always assumed I took my flu shot I would not get da flu that year. This year I got a mild flu back in January after taking my shot. But my doc said well sometimes people get mild symptoms of flu after da shot but not full blown flu. I think this whole thing is not really completely understood here. Either that or I have been in da dark for years.

I remember posting years ago that I felt quite unwell for a few days after a flu shot. Man, did a few people jump down my throat saying I didn't understand how vaccines work. It's the people who think flu vaccines are entirely innocuous and magic who don't understand how they work. This isn't a condemnation of flu vaccines in any way. When you've got a choice between a bit of fever, chills and headache versus a bad case of flu that is dangerous to my elderly relatives, it's an easy decision.

 

[DenisSamson3]

I can only speak for myself but I have had the flu bad like 5 times I can remember in 55 years. I have been taking the shot since I turned 50 and this year was 1st time I got mild symptoms like the shakes and diarrhea for 3 days and then ongoing nasal congestion for like 2 months. It felt like a mild cold for quite some time nothing to stop me but I could not shake it until end of February. It was really weird because every other time I got flu I was down for a week but then was completely back to myself when it left.

Thanks for the reply. It was something I never really thought about until the discussion here caused some flashbacks to my past experiences. I never discussed with friends or other people in general how often they got sick. Usually that topic never came up in discussions.

 

[ULF_55]

My parents remember double digit mortgage rates.

I worked in banking when rates hit around 20%. My wife worked in mortgages and people were dropping off their keys, saying it's all yours.

In the 80's it was buy the most expensive house you can afford because with salary increases it would get easier and easier to afford.

I wouldn't subscribe to that today.

 

[thewave]

I worked in banking when rates hit around 20%. My wife worked in mortgages and people were dropping off their keys, saying it's all yours.

I imagine the same will happen with double digit unemployment rates...

 

[Confucius]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

I rarely been sick, I've probably had 4 colds in my entire adult life. I may have had the flu once when I was 24, my temp was 104 and I coughed up at least a cupful of thick clear bile. Was fine the next day though. Im 64 now.

 

[Pookie]

I had no clue that was the way it is. I always assumed I took my flu shot I would not get da flu.... I think this whole thing is not really completely understood here. Either that or I have been in da dark for years.

We are all learning about all kinds of things now

 

[Fogelhund]

Agreed all around. I'm just talking about the typical advice not to panic sell which, let's be honest, is what I'd be doing. I'll friggin hate myself if everything recovers within a year. But this is way more complicated for me because I'm 50, in a very good position to just pull the rip chord and bail out. I could spend the next few years winding the business down with income coming in so I don't have to touch my savings. I also have a lot of weird feelings about my business and whether clients are going to pay up or if there will be any work soon. It feels like the stars are aligning telling me to just walk away. One further complication is my son has had his eye on possibly taking my business over one day so I'd be having a tough conversation with him as well.

Sorry to give my life story but I'll bet a lot of people are dealing with tough decisions right now.

Like I said... what would you hate yourself more for?

It rebounds in a year?

It drops in half from here, and doesn't recover for years?

Which is worse? Then make a decision, and live with it.

 

[yubbers]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

I'll catch the occasional cold or whatnot. But a put me on my ass flu? 1 maybe 2 a decade. I don't get sick often thankfully.

 

[Confucius]

I worked in banking when rates hit around 20%. My wife worked in mortgages and people were dropping off their keys, saying it's all yours.

In the 80's it was buy the most expensive house you can afford because with salary increases it would get easier and easier to afford.

I wouldn't subscribe to that today.

On the flip side, if you had cash you scored big time. 5 year Canada savings bond paid 19% per annum

 

[Clark4Ever]

Yeah, at my age LOL like getting to the top of the rollercoaster track and seeing you're heading down ...

COVID-19: How it has affected the markets and your investment?

It may take 6 months to a year, but the markets will bounce back. If anything, I see the next little while as a tremendous buying opportunity for many blue chip stocks.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I imagine the same will happen with double digit unemployment rates...

It may be already here.
About 1,000,000 Ontarians work in hospitality.
My guess is no one will report how bad things are right now.
Who knows maybe 1M Ontarians with go on EI very soon. Maybe even more as other industries are affected too.
10% is a given today. Could we get to 25% soon?
Anywho the govt will have to print more money until this thing is over.
Most of these job layoffs will all come back as soon as bans are opened up again.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

When I was young I never got the flu. Around 22 I took the flu shot (I don't know why, just said why not) and I got sick bad that year. Never took the flu shot since and have yet to get the flu again. Must of been the heavy metals and aborted fetus cells that got me sick. I'll never get the shot (of any kind) again.

 

[Fogelhund]

It may be already here.
About 1,000,000 Ontarians work in hospitality.
My guess is no one will report how bad things are right now.
Who knows maybe 1M Ontarians with go on EI very soon. Maybe even more as other industries are affected too.
10% is a given today. Could we get to 25% soon?
Anywho the govt will have to print more money until this thing is over.
Most of these job layoffs will all come back as soon as bans are opened up again.

You would hope most of the jobs return right away... but after whatever period in time this lasts... and people are on EI for that period... it's a certainty that there won't be people who have full pockets, looking to spend them in retail, or at restaurants etc... Consumer Spending is going to take some time to recover, there is going to be a hangover.... and well, nobody will need to buy Toilet Paper until 2023.

 

[deletethis]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

Some people like you are just better physical specimen's than others.

I'll catch the occasional cold or whatnot. But a put me on my ass flu? 1 maybe 2 a decade. I don't get sick often thankfully.

I don't think I've gotten through a calendar year without at least the type of cold that leaves me mostly functional but coughing and blowing my nose constantly for several days.

 

[Cotton]

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

I typically get a cold once a year but I hadn't had the flu in probably more than a decade, nor had I had the flu shot in just as long.

This year I've been fighting off something minor it seems since about January, last week for a few days it involved a Cough, some laboured breathing and a low-grade fever. I actually only decided not to get panicked because of an online coronavirus test they have for Albertans that someone posted here that said based on my answers I didn't need to bother. And it was right.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You would hope most of the jobs return right away... but after whatever period in time this lasts... and people are on EI for that period... it's a certainty that there won't be people who have full pockets, looking to spend them in retail, or at restaurants etc... Consumer Spending is going to take some time to recover, there is going to be a hangover.... and well, nobody will need to buy Toilet Paper until 2023.

So true I did not think it through but yes there are lots of servers in Toronto making 75K per year who will not be making same $$$ with EI. So the longer this goes on the worse it will be with the hangover. Which is why I think we should just escalate EI program temporarily so people are WHOLE. After all no one asked to be laid off because the GOVT shut them down. These are often the most vulnerable among us. These are the young people making rent payments. Clearly this thing is not fair here.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I typically get a cold once a year but I hadn't had the flu in probably more than a decade, nor had I had the flu shot in just as long.

This year I've been fighting off something minor it seems since about January, last week for a few days it involved a Cough, some laboured breathing and a low-grade fever. I actually only decided not to get panicked because of an online coronavirus test they have for Albertans that someone posted here that said based on my answers I didn't need to bother. And it was right.

Yeah this years flu/cold season many people had slight symptoms for longer periods of time it has been a weird year for sure

 

[PromisedLand]

When we conquer this as a world, I am excited to resume our seemingly insignificant arguements about whether Marner or Nylander is better.

I appreciate all the info everyone has tried to keep everyone informed and kept hostilities to a minimum. Warms the heart that although we all have different opinions, political or religious beliefs that we are trying our best to help each other out

marner is obviously better but given the contract/production (not just offense but also defense) Willy makes more sense

 

[yubbers]

Some people like you are just better physical specimen's than others.



I don't think I've gotten through a calendar year without at least the type of cold that leaves me mostly functional but coughing and blowing my nose constantly for several days.

I have a really active lifestyle which i guess helps. But I'm far from a health nut. Hell, I hack darts occasionally. I give credit to running around a farm often as a kid The dirt is like 30% poo

 

[ULF_55]

It may take 6 months to a year, but the markets will bounce back. If anything, I see the next little while as a tremendous buying opportunity for many blue chip stocks.

I'm staying the course.

I have friends who play but I know enough to know I don't.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I'm staying the course.

I have friends who play but I know enough to know I don't.

Lots of people playing likely because too many at home. You can only walk and make babies for so long. And we have only been at this for 1 week. I think a month from now people are going to lose it.

 

[Jojalu]

marner is obviously better but given the contract/production (not just offense but also defense) Willy makes more sense

That's more like it!!