OT: COVID-19- March 17 2020 - No politics! Read post #1

[Bluelines]

Because then I'd have angst that I was an idiot a bailed when I should have followed the advice of every financial expert.

For me it would be the sting of bailing now and in 2 years seeing all that loss come back and you have no way to recoup it. Mine is through my company, so if I leave now, I have to port that investment out of my company's investment portfolio.

 

[Blue Nate]

Maybe Canadian's that can't work right now should go work on a farm.

Its not just the fact that nobody wants to do that work. Many of these migrant workers have been coming back to the same farm for years or decades. They know what and how to do it.

 

[Blue Nate]

All this talk about the government helping and banks stepping up is sweet. What about people who haven't been able to purchase a place to live and are renting month to month? Nice kick in the bag for those people that they're being completely ignored. Isn't the measure of a society supposed to be how it takes care of those that are most vulnerable?

Here's how Toronto renters feel about the new mortgage deferrals in Canada

They are banning evictions no?

 

[deletethis]

Remember there is no such thing as a SARS vaccine or a Spanish Flu vaccine. An Ebola vaccine was only approved in 2019 apparently and this disease had a well-documented and studied outbreak in the mid-90's. There may never be a vaccine for a very long time and certainly not in a few months but doubtlessly there will be countless reports of people claiming to have developed one. Sometimes charlatans wear white coats.What may be found is an existing vaccine works partially to lessen the severity.

As discussed above, cold viruses ( including the corona viruses) are notorious for their fast mutation rate. That makes vaccine development harder I understand. But it also probably explains why Spanish flu terminated itself. It probably mutated into a less harmful version of itself going forward.

There's a reason why they are going this route of isolation. Preventing infection spread by creating a system where most infections don't produce further infections is the only thing they've got.

 

[Blue Nate]

With all that said there was a report of one woman in Morocco (i think) that contracted the Covid-19 virus twice.

Different strains maybe? That's scary to think about. If we hypothetically develop a vaccine and the virus just mutates next winter.

 

[ULF_55]

All this talk about the government helping and banks stepping up is sweet. What about people who haven't been able to purchase a place to live and are renting month to month? Nice kick in the bag for those people that they're being completely ignored. Isn't the measure of a society supposed to be how it takes care of those that are most vulnerable?

Here's how Toronto renters feel about the new mortgage deferrals in Canada

What are renters putting up for collateral?

I see their point, but I don't think they see the landlord's point.
And what about landlords who don't have a mortgage on their property? They aren't getting anything from the government, so their tenants shouldn't complain?
How about people who aren't getting cash from the government because they're still working?
What about people with lots of money and no debt that get laid off? Should they get money from the government?

Perhaps it should be an UBI.

Give all citizens who voted UBI.

 

[deletethis]

Different strains maybe? That's scary to think about. If we hypothetically develop a vaccine and the virus just mutates next winter.

I think most of the time the mutation strains that survive to re-infect the population are almost always less severe.

 

[PuckMagi]

Because then I'd have angst that I was an idiot a bailed when I should have followed the advice of every financial expert.

Most financial experts are idiots.

Doesn't have to be all or nothing. Sell half or two thirds of your shares if you want.

This market can go a lot lower.

 

[ULF_55]

Most financial experts are idiots.

Doesn't have to be all or nothing. Sell half or two thirds of your shares if you want.

This market can go a lot lower.

Oh, remember the days you could buy CSB's with 7% return ...

 

[Gary Nylund]

They are banning evictions no?

I haven't heard that, I could easily have missed it though so ... dunno.

What are renters putting up for collateral?

I see their point, but I don't think they see the landlord's point.
And what about landlords who don't have a mortgage on their property? They aren't getting anything from the government, so their tenants shouldn't complain?
How about people who aren't getting cash from the government because they're still working?
What about people with lots of money and no debt that get laid off? Should they get money from the government?

Perhaps it should be an UBI.

Give all citizens who voted UBI.

All good points/questions.

Perhaps the govt. should help renters who are in financial difficulty because of this virus with some sort of temporary assistance.

Lots of money and no debt is trickier. On the surface it's easy to say no but ... it's tricky.

It's a tricky situation in so many ways, all I can pretty much guarantee is that there is no formula that is fair to everyone, all I can hope is that the govt. does the best the can do without letting their political agenda get in the way (and it's been suggested that Trudeau has already done this) and also hope that Trudeau is smarter then he sounds.

Seems like a lot to hope for, doesn't it?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Different strains maybe? That's scary to think about. If we hypothetically develop a vaccine and the virus just mutates next winter.

Did you see the report yesterday that because of all the testing done recently in Canada and US for corona that it appears we completely missed on the flu shot this year in both Canada and US. Turns out thousands of people got the full flu who took the shot. It just goes to show that the medical establishment who are providing guidelines completely missed this flu season. Now it may turn out that it could help you in future years if that strain comes back. Kinda scary really. But these viruses are clearly not well understood.

 

[Blue Nate]

I haven't heard that, I could easily have missed it though so ... dunno.

I just checked; you're right, Canada hasn't enacted any eviction bans yet. At the very least they should not allow any landlord who takes a mortgage deferral to evict a tenant for a missing payment.

 

[Bluelines]

Different strains maybe? That's scary to think about. If we hypothetically develop a vaccine and the virus just mutates next winter.

There is a theory, not supported by science, that every time someone gets a cold, it adds small snips of DNA from its host to its DNA so each time you have a cold you have small snips of millions of other peoples DNA in you.

We have seen strains that are antibiotic resistant, that is scary that there might be a time where humans cant interact with other humans because we might kill someone by just breathing on them.

 

[Fogelhund]

Because then I'd have angst that I was an idiot a bailed when I should have followed the advice of every financial expert.

Not every Financial expert. I had my clients mostly out of the market, as the valuations were far too high, that eventually something was going to cause a problem.

Even today, valuations are well above normal over history, and certainly well above where any other Bear market ended. I would expect the Dow to end up, somewhere between 8,000-14,000 when this is all said and done.

We are always at risk of being wrong, the question you have to ask yourself being... which are you most comfortable with being wrong.

a) The market rebounding now, and you miss out on it?
b) The market losing another 35-60% from where it is, and you ride it all the way down?

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Hearing about the TTC employee who has tested positive following a return home from a trip, the more I am thinking the PM and President bungled the situation by not banning international travel when the virus was exploding in China and Italy, two countries which sees a lot of travel to and from Canada and the U.S. Harsh and punitive, but also proactive and reactive, which could have minimized the severity of the situation we are now facing.

 

[Fogelhund]

Different strains maybe? That's scary to think about. If we hypothetically develop a vaccine and the virus just mutates next winter.

I believe the issue isn't different strains, as there is only one so far. From what I've read, is that it can appear to go dormant, and then reflare up at a later date.

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I just checked; you're right, Canada hasn't enacted any eviction bans yet. At the very least they should not allow any landlord who takes a mortgage deferral to evict a tenant for a missing payment.

At the very least, agreed. Can you imagine if thousands of people were evicted all in a short period of time, yikes? Riot time!

 

[Bluelines]

Did you see the report yesterday that because of all the testing done recently in Canada and US for corona that it appears we completely missed on the flu shot this year in both Canada and US. Turns out thousands of people got the full flu who took the shot. It just goes to show that the medical establishment who are providing guidelines completely missed this flu season. Now it may turn out that it could help you in future years if that strain comes back. Kinda scary really. But these viruses are clearly not well understood.

That is not unusual, there are multiple strains every year. There is a medical board that sits, every year, and determines which strain is most likely to be most prevalent and the vaccine is then made for that particular strain. You could have multiple strains floating around at the same time, you are protected against one but not the other and boom, you are infected. Some years they are really good at predicting the strain that will be most prevalent and some years they totally miss the boat.

 

[Mess]

For up to date information on COVID-19, the following resources are available:

World Health Organization
Coronavirus

Health Canada
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak updates, symptoms, prevention, travel, preparation - Canada.ca

 

[Bluelines]

Not every Financial expert. I had my clients mostly out of the market, as the valuations were far too high, that eventually something was going to cause a problem.

Even today, valuations are well above normal over history, and certainly well above where any other Bear market ended. I would expect the Dow to end up, somewhere between 8,000-14,000 when this is all said and done.

We are always at risk of being wrong, the question you have to ask yourself being... which are you most comfortable with being wrong.

a) The market rebounding now, and you miss out on it?
b) The market losing another 35-60% from where it is, and you ride it all the way down?

Wasn't it around 30,000 before last weeks collapse?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That is not unusual, there are multiple strains every year. There is a medical board that sits, every year, and determines which strain is most likely to be most prevalent and the vaccine is then made for that particular strain. You could have multiple strains floating around at the same time, you are protected against one but not the other and boom, you are infected. Some years they are really good at predicting the strain that will be most prevalent and some years they totally miss the boat.

I had no clue that was the way it is. I always assumed I took my flu shot I would not get da flu that year. This year I got a mild flu back in January after taking my shot. But my doc said well sometimes people get mild symptoms of flu after da shot but not full blown flu. I think this whole thing is not really completely understood here. Either that or I have been in da dark for years.

 

[DenisSamson3]

I was watching an interesting program about the great depression in the usa. During that event is where welfare as we know it came along. But what was stagerring is that people felt shameful for receiving money from the government. 40% of people who got money from the government ended up paying it back as a choice. It was a different mindset. Also it wasnt a credit driven society and people had savings at the begining. The government actually borrowed from the people at times. Was neat to see how the pendulum shifted. Im guessing there may not have been bailouts as well.

 

[DenisSamson3]

I had no clue that was the way it is. I always assumed I took my flu shot I would not get da flu that year. This year I got a mild flu back in January after taking my shot. But my doc said well sometimes people get mild symptoms of flu after da shot but not full blown flu. I think this whole thing is not really completely understood here. Either that or I have been in da dark for years.

Ate there other people out there like me who only get sick once or twice every 10 years? Most of my friends get sick once or twice a year and im curious to know if thats the norm. I remember some people missing weeks of school in a year when they were sick. Or if I wanted to call a friend up to play sports and they were sick, I had to find some other friend to play with.

 

[Pookie]

Oh, remember the days you could buy CSB's with 7% return ...

My parents remember double digit mortgage rates.

 

[Fogelhund]

Wasn't it around 30,000 before last weeks collapse?

29,568 was the peak. It's been falling since Feb 19th.

Here is a great valuations resource, where you can compare the current market, with prior.... it's still well above prior bottoms, and my calculations for Dow at 14,000 are based on a PE of 15x, the highest ever ending Shiller PE for the end of a Bear, and 8,000 based on a PE of 9x... which is more typical of the ending of a bear.

Shiller PE Ratio