OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VII - READ THE OP

[Gardner McKay]

I was hoping that we wouldn't have to go to Part VII... but here we are. Moderator tolerance for political discussion is at an all time low. There will be no warnings. There will be no second chances. At this point, crossing that line will come with a forum ban that will remain in place until hockey season starts.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

Click to read more...

 

[Gardner McKay]

I think comparing NY current cases to that of other states is like Apples and Oranges.

NY has 3x the cases compared to Florida despite housing a smaller population and, NY pretty much wiped out their most vulnerable citizens early on in the pandemic.

With that being said, I really didn't think we would be seeing these spikes in Georgia and FL. I thought that as the summer heat ushered in, as with most viruses, this would fade a bit. That is a major part of the reason why I thought those two states in particular being open early was fine. Definitely was wrong on that one.

Edited*

 

[Off Sides]

If someone is wearing a mask their respiratory droplets can not travel as far, especially if they cough or sneeze.

It is astounding how something that simple is not universally accepted as common sense.

 

[Trxjw]

My friend refuses to wear a seatbelt. He would sit there and go through the whole process of the car beeping nonstop and not put it on. Every time I tell him be tells me to shut up. His GF told him at first and then next time I heard her say it he said: "I told you not to tell me this". It's absolutely mind-boggling. Add to that he has a 2-year-old son.

As far as masks go, there was a brief period of time I didn't wear mine because the mask I had didn't fit, it kept sliding off my face. It was like a week and I'd really only be outside and would walk around people. But then I heard others urge me to wear it and now I always wear it.

There are certain cases like with a friend of mine where I can understand people not wearing masks. She has asthma and also she's a domestic violence victim where she was violently choked by her ex-husband. She said constraining herself in that way gives her PTSD. But most people are like my neighbor who "got sick of wearing it".

I think a lot of people went through the same thing you did. A lot of people I know didn't take it seriously even after we were several weeks into the shelter at home orders. The fact that you've adapted and wear it consistently now is great.

There are certainly going to be a handful of exceptions for people who cannot always wear a mask in public, but the majority of people we've seen and whom I've encountered are simply people who are "sick of wearing it" as you put it. Wearing a normal mask really does little to restrict the flow of oxygen, but if you have a legitimate medical reason to not wear one, then it is what it is.

 

[Trxjw]

Here’s my thing. I have gone out and forgotten to wear a mask. I run back upstairs and get it, but if I didn’t, say, and I pop into a store, social distance, pull my shirt over my mouth, keep my head down, hurry up with my shop and get back home, I think that’s pretty reasonable. And I shouldn’t get bothered by the authorities. I would rather the line were drawn at ‘unsafe’ behavior. Same with driving, I don’t think someone should get pulled over simply for going over the speed limit on an empty road at midday.
I know...I know...it’s not so cut-and-dried. I’m just talking ‘perfect world’.

I don't think people should be punished for it like that either, but I think the fact that so much of the population was slow to adopt the policies or are still flat out ignoring them means that the people enforcing them need to take some drastic measures.

 

[Fireonk]

I think comparing NY current cases to that of other states is like Apples and Oranges.

NY has 3x the cases compared to Florida despite housing a smaller population and, NY pretty much wiped out their most vulnerable citizens early on in the pandemic.

With that being said, I really didn't think we would be seeing these spikes in Georgia and NY. I thought that as the summer heat ushered in, as with most viruses, this would fade a bit. That is a major part of the reason why I thought those two states in particular being open early was fine. Definitely was wrong on that one.

I believe you mean FL in the last part.

I think, from what I have seen at least, as long as people stay outside things have been fine. It looks like the places that started getting a little too lax on the inside parts are where things are going up again, making the heat aspect of things less impactful.

 

[Trxjw]

So even with Phase 4, Gyms, movie theaters , and indoor malls will not be able to open. Stick a nail in the coffin of these industries. Governor just killed them.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/24/heres-what-will-not-reopen-in-new-yorks-phase-four/

Don't gyms derive very little of their revenue from physical attendance to begin with? I think it's like 80% of gym memberships subsidize the other 20% that actually go to the gym and work out. The real problem is that Covid make people pay close attention to their budgets and a gym membership they never use is an easy thing to cut -- though god knows places like LA Fitness make it practically impossible to cancel your membership. I literally had to convince them I had moved to a place where there wasn't a location within 50 miles before they'd even connect me with someone who could terminate my membership.

The other problem is that few people are able to save any money at all, let alone enough to float them for 3+ months of unemployment. So those people are canceling all of their memberships as well.

 

[NYSPORTS]

though god knows places like LA Fitness make it practically impossible to cancel your membership. .

can’t get anybody to help cancel a membership but if you change your credit card you’ll get 30 kids from the across the country calling for payment daily.

Went to LA Fitness for 12 years yet took almost a year to cancel. Finally found an Adult who made it easy. The kids/meatheads/robots/brain dead . . . forget it. Lol

 

[Tawnos]

Back to work-from-home for the moment, as my brother-in-law was feeling run down and is having some taste issues. I saw him Sunday. He started feeling that way Tuesday and got tested yesterday. Fingers crossed it comes back negative.

In state news, the NC governor extended Phase 2 yesterday by 3 weeks. And it sounds like bars might have been removed from the phase 3 opening and put onto phase 4. He also issued an order requiring facemasks in public spaces and businesses. The order requires that businesses enforce the order, and they can be cited by law enforcement if they do not. I don't know if that's how other states are doing their facemask requirements, but I thought it was an interesting approach.

 

[Leetch3]

Don't gyms derive very little of their revenue from physical attendance to begin with? I think it's like 80% of gym memberships subsidize the other 20% that actually go to the gym and work out. The real problem is that Covid make people pay close attention to their budgets and a gym membership they never use is an easy thing to cut -- though god knows places like LA Fitness make it practically impossible to cancel your membership. I literally had to convince them I had moved to a place where there wasn't a location within 50 miles before they'd even connect me with someone who could terminate my membership.

The other problem is that few people are able to save any money at all, let alone enough to float them for 3+ months of unemployment. So those people are canceling all of their memberships as well.

I just had to cancel my membership at 24 hour fitness after they filed for bankruptcy and I shouldn't jinx it because I'm still waiting for the final confirmation but I was shocked at how easy it was to cancel. and maybe they made it that way cause of the situation but you always hear horror stories were you basically need to fake your own death to get out of it lol...

i'm likely switching to la fitness when quarantine is over so you give me something to look forward to down the road lol

 

[Gardner McKay]

I believe you mean FL in the last part.

I think, from what I have seen at least, as long as people stay outside things have been fine. It looks like the places that started getting a little too lax on the inside parts are where things are going up again, making the heat aspect of things less impactful.

Yes. Thank you.

 

[Tawnos]

I think comparing NY current cases to that of other states is like Apples and Oranges.

NY has 3x the cases compared to Florida despite housing a smaller population and, NY pretty much wiped out their most vulnerable citizens early on in the pandemic.

With that being said, I really didn't think we would be seeing these spikes in Georgia and NY. I thought that as the summer heat ushered in, as with most viruses, this would fade a bit. That is a major part of the reason why I thought those two states in particular being open early was fine. Definitely was wrong on that one.

I've mentioned this before, but some studies of MERS (another Coronavirus) point to either a lack of seasonality or peaking in warmer months. They're not conclusive, and neither are other studies going the other way, but there isn't necessarily any reason to assume covid-19 would have a seasonal component.

 

[LokiDog]

Don't gyms derive very little of their revenue from physical attendance to begin with? I think it's like 80% of gym memberships subsidize the other 20% that actually go to the gym and work out. The real problem is that Covid make people pay close attention to their budgets and a gym membership they never use is an easy thing to cut -- though god knows places like LA Fitness make it practically impossible to cancel your membership. I literally had to convince them I had moved to a place where there wasn't a location within 50 miles before they'd even connect me with someone who could terminate my membership.

The other problem is that few people are able to save any money at all, let alone enough to float them for 3+ months of unemployment. So those people are canceling all of their memberships as well.

All of the gyms that I’m aware of (I have active memberships at 3) suspended billing until they’re open anyway. So whether or not you cancelled your membership, the gym isn’t getting any revenue. Not sure that’s the case universally, but it seems to be.

Personally if you can hang out at the beach, go to an outdoor bar, etc. I’d say open gyms, enforce strict cleaning, set up a smaller capacity and the gym has to designate “stations” of sorts, so you bring your weights over here and stay away from other people. Make every other machine and treadmill available. Strictly enforce that all members wipe down their machine, bench, weights before and after use. This way the guy before me wiped it down and then I wiped it down again before using it. I don’t know. Or allow gyms that have the means to move some equipment outdoors and offer outdoor hours. I need the gym dammit.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I've mentioned this before, but some studies of MERS (another Coronavirus) point to either a lack of seasonality or peaking in warmer months. They're not conclusive, and neither are other studies going the other way, but there isn't necessarily any reason to assume covid-19 would have a seasonal component.

Completely disagree. I think there was enough evidence to suggest it was a fairly reasonable assumption and it still could be a reasonable assumption. It just may follow a different seasonal pattern.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Completely disagree. I think there was enough evidence to suggest it was a fairly reasonable assumption and it still could be a reasonable assumption. It just may follow a different seasonal pattern.

View attachment 351367

ty - perfect example of why, despite so many claims of certainty, we are still in the discovery phase of this virus. Although we appear to have learned a lot there is so much uncertainty.

 

[eco's bones]

A point I would make is that when someone who I have never seen here before on the Rangers forum to discuss hockey--only comes here for this one subject and tells people here they're being sheep for wearing masks or social distancing after what NYC and NYS has been through it does raise hackles. Do I make that apples and oranges post if he/she doesn't post what they did?--no I don't make it. I know people who live in Florida and I worry about them.

As for the virus dying down over the summer months I had hopes that it would but it's not been the case. But then again they've had numerous cases in Hawaii all along. We were there in November and it was about the hottest climate I've ever been in.

 

[Trxjw]

I just had to cancel my membership at 24 hour fitness after they filed for bankruptcy and I shouldn't jinx it because I'm still waiting for the final confirmation but I was shocked at how easy it was to cancel. and maybe they made it that way cause of the situation but you always hear horror stories were you basically need to fake your own death to get out of it lol...

i'm likely switching to la fitness when quarantine is over so you give me something to look forward to down the road lol

I got absorbed into LA Fitness through my original Bally's membership. For the most part LAF was fine. Facilities were nice and clean -- though it was always crowded -- and the staff was pretty friendly. Always had quality equipment and new machines pretty regularly. The corporate side is a whole different ball game. They're a predatory organization through-and-through. The only customer support I've ever dealt with that was worse than Comcast.

To cancel my membership I had to convince them I was moving back to my home town where there wasn't a facility within reasonable driving distance. I'm from the east end of Long Island and the closest place was Patchogue. They tried to convince me that an hour's drive was still within "reasonable distance" according to their terms of service and that I should definitely keep the membership in case I was ever in some random city where there was a location and wanted to get a work out in. That's the one and only time I actually lost my shit at a customer service rep. I finally got in touch with the cancellation department after I told my CC company to block the charges and I had to physically print out a paper form, fill it out, sign it and mail it to them in order to get my membership cancelled. Took them four months from the day I got an email confirming they'd received it before they stopped trying to bill me.

 

[Gardner McKay]

ty - perfect example of why, despite so many claims of certainty, we are still in the discovery phase of this virus. Although we appear to have learned a lot there is so much uncertainty.

Absolutely. I think that is the big take away, at least it is for me. I don't think any assumptions are unreasonable anymore.

For example, @Machinehead posted something 2 months ago that suggested we could easily have 150 - 250k COVID deaths by fall IIRC. I didn't think we would come close to that number... and here we are at 125k already and its not even July.

 

[Trxjw]

All of the gyms that I’m aware of (I have active memberships at 3) suspended billing until they’re open anyway. So whether or not you cancelled your membership, the gym isn’t getting any revenue. Not sure that’s the case universally, but it seems to be.

Personally if you can hang out at the beach, go to an outdoor bar, etc. I’d say open gyms, enforce strict cleaning, set up a smaller capacity and the gym has to designate “stations” of sorts, so you bring your weights over here and stay away from other people. Make every other machine and treadmill available. Strictly enforce that all members wipe down their machine, bench, weights before and after use. This way the guy before me wiped it down and then I wiped it down again before using it. I don’t know. Or allow gyms that have the means to move some equipment outdoors and offer outdoor hours. I need the gym dammit.

That would certainly make it harder on them if that was the case. As far as re-opening, the guidelines are pretty hard for gyms to adhere to unless they add more staff to monitor things. Not something I expect they want to do when they're trying to claw back profits. I can totally appreciate your predicament though. From day one of the stay at home I was glad I had started building out a home gym. It's definitely helped to keep me sane.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I think a lot of people went through the same thing you did. A lot of people I know didn't take it seriously even after we were several weeks into the shelter at home orders. The fact that you've adapted and wear it consistently now is great.

There are certainly going to be a handful of exceptions for people who cannot always wear a mask in public, but the majority of people we've seen and whom I've encountered are simply people who are "sick of wearing it" as you put it. Wearing a normal mask really does little to restrict the flow of oxygen, but if you have a legitimate medical reason to not wear one, then it is what it is.

I wore it and then I stopped because I social distanced, but then later realized I should still wear it.

 

[LokiDog]

I got absorbed into LA Fitness through my original Bally's membership. For the most part LAF was fine. Facilities were nice and clean -- though it was always crowded -- and the staff was pretty friendly. Always had quality equipment and new machines pretty regularly. The corporate side is a whole different ball game. They're a predatory organization through-and-through. The only customer support I've ever dealt with that was worse than Comcast.

To cancel my membership I had to convince them I was moving back to my home town where there wasn't a facility within reasonable driving distance. I'm from the east end of Long Island and the closest place was Patchogue. They tried to convince me that an hour's drive was still within "reasonable distance" according to their terms of service and that I should definitely keep the membership in case I was ever in some random city where there was a location and wanted to get a work out in. That's the one and only time I actually lost my shit at a customer service rep. I finally got in touch with the cancellation department after I told my CC company to block the charges and I had to physically print out a paper form, fill it out, sign it and mail it to them in order to get my membership cancelled. Took them four months from the day I got an email confirming they'd received it before they stopped trying to bill me.

The closest I’ll ever get to working out at one of these big corporate gyms is something under the powerhouse umbrella, and those are usually franchises and not part of the large corporate structure. I do a ton of research and find great independent gyms to work out at. Iron Culture in NJ is one of the best gyms I’ve ever been a member at. From the quality of the equipment to the environment, the people, the cost and the ease of working with them. And there’s a lot less groups of teens and wannabe pro body builders taking selfies and doing ridiculous workouts or monopolizing equipment, in my experience.

 

[Trxjw]

can’t get anybody to help cancel a membership but if you change your credit card you’ll get 30 kids from the across the country calling for payment daily.

Went to LA Fitness for 12 years yet took almost a year to cancel. Finally found an Adult who made it easy. The kids/meatheads/robots/brain dead . . . forget it. Lol

Yeah I ultimately had to just tell my CC company to stop accepting the charges and suddenly I slipped through the wall of BS they were giving me.

 

[Leonardo87]

Don't gyms derive very little of their revenue from physical attendance to begin with? I think it's like 80% of gym memberships subsidize the other 20% that actually go to the gym and work out. The real problem is that Covid make people pay close attention to their budgets and a gym membership they never use is an easy thing to cut -- though god knows places like LA Fitness make it practically impossible to cancel your membership. I literally had to convince them I had moved to a place where there wasn't a location within 50 miles before they'd even connect me with someone who could terminate my membership.

The other problem is that few people are able to save any money at all, let alone enough to float them for 3+ months of unemployment. So those people are canceling all of their memberships as well.

I think it's more the movie theaters , small gyms, and indoor mall retail (Which has lost a lot from amazon already), are going to be in serious trouble. We are looking at a total different society moving forward. It's kinda scary.

 

[Tawnos]

Completely disagree. I think there was enough evidence to suggest it was a fairly reasonable assumption and it still could be a reasonable assumption. It just may follow a different seasonal pattern.

View attachment 351367

Not a great graphic to display on this topic, since nothing on there is a coronavirus. The 4 common human coronaviruses, a group which covid-19 doesn't belong to, do have a seasonality. There were 2 other human coronaviruses before now, both of which also evolved from animals before infecting humans, just like covid-19: MERS and SARS. The SARS seasonality is well-documented and understood, while the MERS seasonality is not. Because, of the two closest examples, we don't have enough evidence for seasonality of one of them, I don't think it's a fairly reasonable assumption.

Not to mention that I don't think it's EVER reasonable to assume anything like this about a new illness. You just said "I don't think any assumptions are unreasonable anymore" but the takeaway from what you're saying should really be that *all* assumptions are unreasonable.

 

[Trxjw]

I think it's more the movie theaters , small gyms, and indoor mall retail (Which has lost a lot from amazon already), are going to be in serious trouble. We are looking at a total different society moving forward. It's kinda scary.

Yeah there are definitely a lot of small businesses that will be negatively impacted and our society will definitely change. However, I think it's important that we do change. If this whole situation doesn't make us reevaluate where we are, then we're doing our children and grandchildren a great disservice. I won't get too far into the weeds there because it's bound to get political, but I think this pandemic should knock the shine off of American exceptionalism.