OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VII - READ THE OP

[NYSPORTS]

5,004 new COVID-19 cases in Florida and 46 more deaths Thursday not looking good

 

[Trxjw]

The closest I’ll ever get to working out at one of these big corporate gyms is something under the powerhouse umbrella, and those are usually franchises and not part of the large corporate structure. I do a ton of research and find great independent gyms to work out at. Iron Culture in NJ is one of the best gyms I’ve ever been a member at. From the quality of the equipment to the environment, the people, the cost and the ease of working with them. And there’s a lot less groups of teens and wannabe pro body builders taking selfies and doing ridiculous workouts or monopolizing equipment, in my experience.

I definitely would've preferred that, but I joined Bally's when I was new to the area and didn't have the resources to find a better option. Just rolled with it from there. I was a member of a local, privately owned gym for a while but the ownership really stopped investing in it and I had to bail.

 

[East Coast Bias]

It would be interesting to see if cases are peaking in climates like GA, FL, TX, AZ now because it's hotter and more people are moving indoors. Or if it was bars opening back up (due to the high % of cases in younger people).

There's obviously a behavioral aspect to why the cases are going up. I fear we don't have the tracing infrastructure in place to accurately track this though.

 

[JimmyG89]

It would be interesting to see if cases are peaking in climates like GA, FL, TX, AZ now because it's hotter and more people are moving indoors. Or if it was bars opening back up (due to the high % of cases in younger people).

There's obviously a behavioral aspect to why the cases are going up. I fear we don't have the tracing infrastructure in place to accurately track this though.

I think it is going to be a combination of everything listed here. There are people going out, without masks and spreading it, on top of the groups of people that are probably more indoors due to heat and age and with the spread going up, they're more at risk with recycled air in their home locations and spreading it within their own family.

Memorial Day played a role, protests played a role, current behavior in general played a role. The fact they did not get hit before like NY did, and they are now is because of the gatherings.

Remember back in January and February there was a lot of in jest comments about how it's in China and won't come here, when it was already here and we didn't know. The same thing is happening in these other places now. Unfortunately they did not learn from our mistake and kept going.

We did not take precautions in January and February here in NYC and the northeast that we should have because we thought we were immune to it. That ideal transcended politics too, so it was not the belief that we needed to alter our lives until it was way too late. Hopefully it is not way too late for them.

It seems them closing everything up at the same time as us delayed their spread, which in the end is going to result in infections going up now, but because of the last 3 months of finding out how to treat people better with it will result in fewer deaths.

 

[eco's bones]

5,004 new COVID-19 cases in Florida and 46 more deaths Thursday not looking good

Initially on the east coast it was coming into the New York airports from European destinations--maybe on the west coast it was more from China but it was probably already circulating through the population of New York in January--for certain in February and then took off sometime around St. Patrick's day. When a state gets to 5000 cases a day it's pretty much forest fire time--meaning it can't be ignored anymore. We saw it happening in Italy and Spain before it was our turn and it was a long, excruciating climb up that hill. But the way it's trending in some states like Florida those state governments are going to have to step in and shut things down or I'm afraid they're going to be making that same climb and the longer they wait to step in the worse it's likely to be.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Initially on the east coast it was coming into the New York airports from European destinations--maybe on the west coast it was more from China but it was probably already circulating through the population of New York in January--for certain in February and then took off sometime around St. Patrick's day. When a state gets to 5000 cases a day it's pretty much forest fire time--meaning it can't be ignored anymore. We saw it happening in Italy and Spain before it was our turn and it was a long, excruciating climb up that hill. But the way it's trending in some states like Florida those state governments are going to have to step in and shut things down or I'm afraid they're going to be making that same climb and the longer they wait to step in the worse it's likely to be.

my sister had it in early November. Diagnosed as pneumonia yet none of the Docs could figure out why they couldn’t get her over it. She lost her sense of taste, smell, etc and was using an inhaler for 2 weeks. Her company had visitors coming and going from China.

Regarding Florida, i agree.

 

[sbjnyc]

This is just fantastic.

Doctors Warn COVID-19 May Trigger Diabetes in Otherwise Healthy People

 

[bl02]

All of the gyms that I’m aware of (I have active memberships at 3) suspended billing until they’re open anyway. So whether or not you cancelled your membership, the gym isn’t getting any revenue. Not sure that’s the case universally, but it seems to be.

Personally if you can hang out at the beach, go to an outdoor bar, etc. I’d say open gyms, enforce strict cleaning, set up a smaller capacity and the gym has to designate “stations” of sorts, so you bring your weights over here and stay away from other people. Make every other machine and treadmill available. Strictly enforce that all members wipe down their machine, bench, weights before and after use. This way the guy before me wiped it down and then I wiped it down again before using it. I don’t know. Or allow gyms that have the means to move some equipment outdoors and offer outdoor hours. I need the gym dammit.

Bingo

 

[bl02]

The closest I’ll ever get to working out at one of these big corporate gyms is something under the powerhouse umbrella, and those are usually franchises and not part of the large corporate structure. I do a ton of research and find great independent gyms to work out at. Iron Culture in NJ is one of the best gyms I’ve ever been a member at. From the quality of the equipment to the environment, the people, the cost and the ease of working with them. And there’s a lot less groups of teens and wannabe pro body builders taking selfies and doing ridiculous workouts or monopolizing equipment, in my experience.

That looks like a badass gym. Sucks I am a bit far from Hanover.

 

[eco's bones]

my sister had it in early November. Diagnosed as pneumonia yet none of the Docs could figure out why they couldn’t get her over it. She lost her sense of taste, smell, etc and was using an inhaler for 2 weeks. Her company had visitors coming and going from China.

Regarding Florida, i agree.

There have been a few people on this forum who have mentioned having it or someone close to them having it which is hardly surprising since the NYC metropolitan area and surrounding counties into Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut was pretty much ground zero for at least two months. When you've reached the point where your hospitals are overwhelmed deaths are going to start piling up and not doing anything becomes not really an option and when you have thousands of new cases every day that means there are thousands of people out there spreading it around. New York City is kind of different from most places just because of population density but even so people don't usually run to their doctor or to a hospital the first moment they think they might have something. I know I don't.

Hopefully your sister got through it without any major issue.

 

[Gardner McKay]

my sister had it in early November. Diagnosed as pneumonia yet none of the Docs could figure out why they couldn’t get her over it. She lost her sense of taste, smell, etc and was using an inhaler for 2 weeks. Her company had visitors coming and going from China.

Regarding Florida, i agree.

That was when my doctor suspects that I had it. I was sick for weeks (starting a few days before Halloween to be exact). Horrible respiratory issues. Definite loss of taste. I'll never forget feeling better on Halloween night so I made myself a hot coco and peppermint schnapps and couldn't taste much at all. It was the strangest illness ever. I'd feel like I was on my death bed in the AM and by the evening, I'd feel somewhat better.

I've been meaning to get an antibody test for the last few weeks but have been so busy with work.

 

[Machinehead]

Absolutely. I think that is the big take away, at least it is for me. I don't think any assumptions are unreasonable anymore.

For example, @Machinehead posted something 2 months ago that suggested we could easily have 150 - 250k COVID deaths by fall IIRC. I didn't think we would come close to that number... and here we are at 125k already and its not even July.

I also didn't think it would be that high because the true fatality rate is nowhere near what's on record, and I still think that's true.

I just didn't think it would spread like this so far into it.

 

[NYSPORTS]

That was when my doctor suspects that I had it. I was sick for weeks (starting a few days before Halloween to be exact). Horrible respiratory issues. Definite loss of taste. I'll never forget feeling better on Halloween night so I made myself a hot coco and peppermint schnapps and couldn't taste much at all. It was the strangest illness ever. I'd feel like I was on my death bed in the AM and by the evening, I'd feel somewhat better.

I've been meaning to get an antibody test for the last few weeks but have been so busy with work.

wow, thanks for sharing. Only difference for my sister was the early AM, despite fatigue, may have been her best time. Got progressively worse as day went on with nights really bad. I thought nothing of it besides pneumonia and wait it out. She canceled for Thanksgiving which may have been a blessing with quite a few older generations present.

Who knew come April a test would show she has antibodies for Covid. Meanwhile, her husband is a diabetic and got nothing.

 

[LokiDog]

I’m pretty sure I had it in April. I have an appointment to give blood in a couple of weeks and they provide free antibody testing with your donation, so I’ll know for sure at that point.

 

[Irishguy42]

RE: the recent surges/"second wave"

Just remember that death counts will pretty much always lag a few weeks behind the infection counts...

 

[sbjnyc]

I also didn't think it would be that high because the true fatality rate is nowhere near what's on record, and I still think that's true.

What do you mean here?

 

[Machinehead]

What do you mean here?

The fatality rate of known cases is still somewhere between 3-6% but that's not accounting for cases that are too mild to even requiring testing and reporting of which there are many.

 

[Gardner McKay]

What do you mean here?

I think he could be referring to the fact that there were people who died of COVID that were never properly diagnosed as a COVID death and there also hospitals that were so overrun that nearly anything viral was being marked as a COVID death.

 

[nyr2k2]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So, around 25 million either infected or having been infected previously. It's amazing. And yet it's still less than 10% of the population. Imagine if the lethality of this was double or triple what it is.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So, around 25 million either infected or having been infected previously. It's amazing. And yet it's still less than 10% of the population. Imagine if the lethality of this was double or triple what it is.

Yeah for real.

If it were ebola we'd be completely f***ed.

 

[LokiDog]

I think he could be referring to the fact that there were people who died of COVID that were never properly diagnosed as a COVID death and there also hospitals that were so overrun that nearly anything viral was being marked as a COVID death.

Well, I’d wager there are more people who had mild Covid, or were asymptomatic carriers, and don’t figure into the total of confirmed cases because they’ve never been tested, than there have been unattributed deaths. The percentage of Covid infections that result in death would be lower than reported because there’s likely a large abundance of cases that have never been counted. May not really change much in the grand scheme of things, but it seems difficult to argue that the number of unreported positives is quite large due to cases too mild to bother getting tested, or completely asymptomatic situations.

 

[Synergy27]

The fatality rate of known cases is still somewhere between 3-6% but that's not accounting for cases that are too mild to even requiring testing and reporting of which there are many.

There are a couple of recently released analyses that compute an "excess death rate". There have been a lot more deaths this year compared to what was statistically expected, even after subtracting out those that have been officially attributed to COVID.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah for real.

If it were ebola we'd be completely f***ed.

Facts, but ebola doesn't spread like this because if you have ebola, you don't leave your bed.

Infectivity and severity have a funny way of balancing themselves out like that.

Covid hit a sweet spot right in the middle.

 

[Machinehead]

I think he could be referring to the fact that there were people who died of COVID that were never properly diagnosed as a COVID death and there also hospitals that were so overrun that nearly anything viral was being marked as a COVID death.

There are a couple of recently released analyses that compute an "excess death rate". There have been a lot more deaths this year compared to what was statistically expected, even after subtracting out those that have been officially attributed to COVID.

What is the true death toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

I simply mean that if more people are infected than previously thought, the IFR is lower than the resolved case fatality rate.

Yes, diagnosing has been an issue but it's a lot easier to tell if someone drops dead than to tell if they have mild coronavirus.

The resolved fatality rate in the US currently -meaning we know for sure they had it and they're either dead or they went home- is 9%. There is no way this thing is killing 9% of who it infects.

The greater number of fatalities, then, is likely because of more infections than we thought, not greater severity than we thought.

 

[Barnaby]

All of the gyms that I’m aware of (I have active memberships at 3) suspended billing until they’re open anyway. So whether or not you cancelled your membership, the gym isn’t getting any revenue. Not sure that’s the case universally, but it seems to be.

Personally if you can hang out at the beach, go to an outdoor bar, etc. I’d say open gyms, enforce strict cleaning, set up a smaller capacity and the gym has to designate “stations” of sorts, so you bring your weights over here and stay away from other people. Make every other machine and treadmill available. Strictly enforce that all members wipe down their machine, bench, weights before and after use. This way the guy before me wiped it down and then I wiped it down again before using it. I don’t know. Or allow gyms that have the means to move some equipment outdoors and offer outdoor hours. I need the gym dammit.

I agree. At first glance, it’s one of those things that doesn’t seem like a big deal - like a movie theatre in today’s world - but I have couple family members where I think it really aides in their mental health even moreso than their physical health. I’d like to think that some reasonable precautions could be taken.