OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[NYSPORTS]

Like Michael Leviette puts it, "You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect. "

QUOTE]

botched the reply format

i think is the former. Had people continued traveling within and between the tri-state area and beyond more and more people would have become infected. Do we really believe this virus ran through 327 million people? We kept ourselves apart is the reason this hasn’t spread more IMO.

i’ve said it before, it may have been better for me to get it then wait to get it in the future. Then again, maybe i wouldn’t be typing this post had i got it before.

Watching Georgia.

i think is the former. Had people continued traveling within and between the tri-state area and beyond more and more people would have become infected. Do we really believe this virus ran through 327 million people? We kept ourselves apart is the reason this hasn’t spread more IMO.

i’ve said it before, it may have been better for me to get it then wait to get it in the future. Then again, maybe i wouldn’t be typing this post had i got it before.

Watching Georgia.

 

[Machinehead]

Yes, the first chart is junk, just new cases. No relation to testing. 2nd is new cases in relation to new testing. 3rd is infection rate.

I would assume you know how to read charts.

The rising number of new tests, which is bringing the third chart down, is inflated by a few states. Most states are still barely testing at all.

The states lacking the most in testing tend to be states coming last in the timeline which means, at this point, that's where most of the sick people are.

Massachusetts and New Jersey driving down the positive rate when they're both on the downtown isn't indicative of anything in the country at large.

Not to mention we're moving the goalposts here. What does any of this have to do with Trump?

 

[JimmyG89]

The rising number of new tests, which is bringing the third chart down, is inflated by a few states. Most states are still barely testing at all.

The states lacking the most in testing tend to be states coming last in the timeline which means, at this point, that's where most of the sick people are.

Massachusetts and New Jersey driving down the positive rate when they're both on the downtown isn't indicative of anything in the country at large.

Not to mention we're moving the goalposts here. What does any of this have to do with Trump?

Has nothing to do with Trump at all. This conversation had nothing to do with him. Not sure why you can't differentiate the two, but here we are.

Once again, infection rates. You can see if for all the states: IHME | COVID-19 Projections (these samples go up to 5/1)

You can see testing is going up across the board and the infection rates dropping in a lot of places.

In fact, your comments about NJ and Massachusetts propping up the positive numbers when you exclude NY are not accurate. Florida's infection rate is much much lower as well. Texas is testing much higher as well. Near 5% infection rate per test. Ohio is 10%. These places people are ridiculing that are opening up have nowhere near the issues that other states have, including most of the northeast.

NJ is way too high, and Massachusetts is closer to getting to where Florida and others are. Not to mention, those rates in Florida, Ohio, and Texas are dropping. These are places that are opening more and more up. Unfortunately due to the data being up through 5/1, we are not getting any more info on Georgia which ended stay at home orders. I'll be curious to see if infection rates jump up, but it's been at a good rate before this.

 

[Machinehead]

Has nothing to do with Trump at all. This conversation had nothing to do with him. Not sure why you can't differentiate the two, but here we are.

Once again, infection rates. You can see if for all the states: IHME | COVID-19 Projections (these samples go up to 5/1)

You can see testing is going up across the board and the infection rates dropping in a lot of places.

In fact, your comments about NJ and Massachusetts propping up the positive numbers when you exclude NY are not accurate. Florida's infection rate is much much lower as well. Texas is testing much higher as well. Near 5% infection rate per test. Ohio is 10%. These places people are ridiculing that are opening up have nowhere near the issues that other states have, including most of the northeast.

NJ is way too high, and Massachusetts is closer to getting to where Florida and others are. Not to mention, those rates in Florida, Ohio, and Texas are dropping. These are places that are opening more and more up. Unfortunately due to the data being up through 5/1, we are not getting any more info on Georgia which ended stay at home orders. I'll be curious to see if infection rates jump up, but it's been at a good rate before this.

I was responding to something specifically about Trump. I think you're having trouble differentiating between the two.

 

[will1066]

On the topic of murder hornets, just saw a video of a praying mantis catching one and devouring its head. It was awesome. Praying mantises gonna save us from the murder hornets.

 

[Metranger]

On the topic of murder hornets, just saw a video of a praying mantis catching one and devouring its head. It was awesome. Praying mantises gonna save us from the murder hornets.

You see the video where the Japanese Honey Bees lured a hornet into there lair and then, just at the right time, they all jumped it and wiggled to raise the body temperature high enough to kill the hornet??

Great teamwork to make the dreamwork.

 

[Ola]

I do see the pattern of the hardest hit places coming down the quickest, although I think fear and relative lack of mobility among the population may have something to do with that.

I also concede that particular susceptibility lowers the threshold.

That being said, there's no way herd immunity kicks in at 20%. That just seems impossible to me.

My other problem is that the article states: " the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline." That's a very nice way of saying people die by the thousands. That's going to suck for places where that hasn't already happened.

Yeah its a tragedy, but these reports are also based on the assumption that there are no alternatives. We have been afraid of a pandemic in 106 years, the reason for it is because its principally impossible to stop when its this contagious and asymptomatic people can pass the virus around.

I don't think its black and white either. But Michael Levitte has a point. Why are the curves coming down at places that have reached around 20% immunity but nowhere else? Its really nowhere else except for in places that had very few cases when they shut down. I think the explanations you give are well thought through so to speak. I also think that could be factors. But I just don't think its plausible that they explain the extreme difference.

 

[eco's bones]

Supposedly everyone coming into NYC from Europe was supposed to be tested and quarantined, if positive. That was a statement from Trump. It never happened.

Donald was claiming we had tests for everyone which was a lie.

 

[Crease]

Supposedly everyone coming into NYC from Europe was supposed to be tested and quarantined, if positive. That was a statement from Trump. It never happened.

Anecdotal: My wife came back to NYC through Japan in mid-March. TSA took temperatures on the tarmac at JFK before deboarding. If you were in normal range, you were good to go. No self-quarantine order. No follow-up.

 

[sbjnyc]

Anecdotal: My wife came back to NYC through Japan in mid-March. TSA took temperatures on the tarmac at JFK before deboarding. If you were in normal range, you were good to go. No self-quarantine order. No follow-up.

There was an interview at the time with someone coming here from Milan. He was surprised how he went through immigration and customs as if everything was normal.

 

[Tawnos]

Yes, the first chart is junk, just new cases. No relation to testing. 2nd is new cases in relation to new testing. 3rd is infection rate.

I would assume you know how to read charts.

Percent of positive tests doesn’t mean as much as people keep proclaiming. A downward curve in percentage doesn’t actually mean the actual curve is going down. It means that the data is aligning with the reality. Where once we were only testing the most likely positives, now were testing as much as the resources will allow. The data before was exaggerated in the direction of positive cases. In other words, had we tested earlier as much as were testing now, the data might have shown a similar number, or possibly even a lower infection rate.

Really, you still need both numbers.

 

[charliemurphy]

Supposedly everyone coming into NYC from Europe was supposed to be tested and quarantined, if positive. That was a statement from Trump. It never happened.

Of course it never happened.
Are people genuinely believing what comes out of that guy's mouth?

 

[charliemurphy]

Nobody knew what this was or the extent of the threat.

I think the point about Trump is that it's May 7th and he clearly still doesn't get it.

He will never get it. He goes from "we have it under control... there are maybe 1 or 2 cases..." to "I claim no responsibility at all... there will be more death..." in the span of 8 about weeks.

 

[Machinehead]

He will never get it. He goes from "we have it under control... there are maybe 1 or 2 cases..." to "I claim no responsibility at all... there will be more death..." in the span of 8 about weeks.

And now he's going back the other way. He's imitating the curve.

 

[charliemurphy]

Percent of positive tests doesn’t mean as much as people keep proclaiming. A downward curve in percentage doesn’t actually mean the actual curve is going down. It means that the data is aligning with the reality. Where once we were only testing the most likely positives, now were testing as much as the resources will allow. The data before was exaggerated in the direction of positive cases. In other words, had we tested earlier as much as were testing now, the data might have shown a similar number, or possibly even a lower infection rate.

Really, you still need both numbers.

We have to keep in mind that the data will always be skewed because of the amount of people that aren't being tested. We've tested such a low percentage that the death toll is probably already well beyond 100k. There are also corporations and states that will shy away from testing altogether because it will prove their decisions on closing and reopening was wrong and could be held liable to lawsuits which will probably start happening in some red states. The next couple of months will give folks a good look at the difference between red states and blue states.
As a NYC public school teacher I can promise you that the Department of Education will not want those numbers to be made public. City hall and the Dept of Health even disagreed on when they should have closed schools in March. I also firmly believe that public schools will return to remote learning this fall. There is zero guarantee that the city can keep mass transit in the clear as well as health and safety within the schools. That's approx. 1.1 million students. Think about the teachers as well that depend on mass transit from the all the boroughs and Long Island as well. Think about child care needs. Apart from purchasing full face respirators and other PPE there is very little that can be done to protect everyone.
Forget about a vaccine. Way down the road. Better start crossing fingers on some form of viable treatment or miracle cocktail of drugs already on the market because NYC looks like it will be the last city to return to somewhat normalcy.

 

[charliemurphy]

And now he's going back the other way. He's imitating the curve.

Give his base of voters in states that are opening up a few weeks to come around.

 

[will1066]

You see the video where the Japanese Honey Bees lured a hornet into there lair and then, just at the right time, they all jumped it and wiggled to raise the body temperature high enough to kill the hornet??

Great teamwork to make the dreamwork.

Yes. The Japanese honeybees have adapted this defense of cooking them alive against the hornets. Noble but it's inefficient unfortunately.

 

[eco's bones]

We have to keep in mind that the data will always be skewed because of the amount of people that aren't being tested. We've tested such a low percentage that the death toll is probably already well beyond 100k. There are also corporations and states that will shy away from testing altogether because it will prove their decisions on closing and reopening was wrong and could be held liable to lawsuits which will probably start happening in some red states. The next couple of months will give folks a good look at the difference between red states and blue states.
As a NYC public school teacher I can promise you that the Department of Education will not want those numbers to be made public. City hall and the Dept of Health even disagreed on when they should have closed schools in March. I also firmly believe that public schools will return to remote learning this fall. There is zero guarantee that the city can keep mass transit in the clear as well as health and safety within the schools. That's approx. 1.1 million students. Think about the teachers as well that depend on mass transit from the all the boroughs and Long Island as well. Think about child care needs. Apart from purchasing full face respirators and other PPE there is very little that can be done to protect everyone.
Forget about a vaccine. Way down the road. Better start crossing fingers on some form of viable treatment or miracle cocktail of drugs already on the market because NYC looks like it will be the last city to return to somewhat normalcy.

I think a lot of numbers are being skewed and not just here. In China they certainly were. I've talked to someone in Northern Iran a few weeks ago and he told me there were at least 5 times more cases than the Iranian govt. was admitting. I expect they're being skewed in Russia, Israel, Sweden and you name it. They're going to be skewed in the United States particularly by states that have rushed to reopen. Governors in those states have made a political choice and so the consequences of admitting they were wrong would destroy them politically. The governor of Georgia didn't even realize that the disease was being spread by asymptomatic people until well into April. He doesn't have the facts and yet he moves ahead anyway. A Cornell U. epedemiologist said recently that without testing making a decision to open up would be tantamount to crossing alone and blind a busy intersection. He went on to say massive testing is needed and probably people will need to be tested numerous times. The decision to gradually open certain regions upstate may be workable but downstate I think we could be months away. It's not just all the deaths which are awful but we cannot let our hospital system be overwhelmed either.

 

[Tawnos]

We have to keep in mind that the data will always be skewed because of the amount of people that aren't being tested. We've tested such a low percentage that the death toll is probably already well beyond 100k. There are also corporations and states that will shy away from testing altogether because it will prove their decisions on closing and reopening was wrong and could be held liable to lawsuits which will probably start happening in some red states. The next couple of months will give folks a good look at the difference between red states and blue states.
As a NYC public school teacher I can promise you that the Department of Education will not want those numbers to be made public. City hall and the Dept of Health even disagreed on when they should have closed schools in March. I also firmly believe that public schools will return to remote learning this fall. There is zero guarantee that the city can keep mass transit in the clear as well as health and safety within the schools. That's approx. 1.1 million students. Think about the teachers as well that depend on mass transit from the all the boroughs and Long Island as well. Think about child care needs. Apart from purchasing full face respirators and other PPE there is very little that can be done to protect everyone.
Forget about a vaccine. Way down the road. Better start crossing fingers on some form of viable treatment or miracle cocktail of drugs already on the market because NYC looks like it will be the last city to return to somewhat normalcy.

Oh yeah, I don’t think the data aligning with reality will ever be completely in line. I guess I should say the data is aligning *better* with reality.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Here’s the average local genius in my social media feed. And everyone knows this guy.

Early March - lots of FAKE NEWS! It’s a hoax

mid March - it’s the corona virus! Have a corona with Lyme? lol. No?! Wow snowflakes

late March - OH MY GOD WE ARE GONNA DIE thank our first responders!

earlty April - Social distance! You could kill a first responder!

late April - Face masks are tyranny! Cuomo? More like Mussolini!

early May - has anyone seen this YouTube video about Bill Gates and Chinese biological weapons? Was there even a virus?

 

[Barnaby]

260 million people facing starvation under global capitalism but communism is evil.

I'll stop now, I just had to get that one in there.

I think the results speak for themselves... free market capitalistic countries have faired far better and its not debatable.

You’re pro-containment.. am I right? Your optimal socialistic country in Sweden has done the exact opposite that you go on about.

China? Burning people in the streets and locking them away to starve to death... better plan?

 

[Barnaby]

Now they're saying that frontline medical workers are showing a lower infection rate than the general population.

Honestly doesn't surprise me. They're extremely careful and know everything there is to know about not getting infected.

They are careful, but there’s no way they can avoid coming in contact with it... I’m guessing it’s more likely health/age range.

 

[Machinehead]

They are careful, but there’s no way they can avoid coming in contact with it... I’m guessing it’s more likely health/age range.

Young people don't just not get it.

 

[Machinehead]

I think the results speak for themselves... free market capitalistic countries have faired far better and its not debatable.

You’re pro-containment.. am I right? Your optimal socialistic country in Sweden has done the exact opposite that you go on about.

China? Burning people in the streets and locking them away to starve to death... better plan?

Sweden socialist

 

[Barnaby]

But the thing is, again, it's not really about initial responses. Yes, all of the initial stuff was bad.

But right now, today, Cuomo is taking it very seriously. De Blasio is taking it very seriously. There are valid criticisms of how they're still handling it, in particular De Blasio. That being said, it goes a long way to assure people who are afraid that you have some kind of plan, even if it's flawed.

Trump doesn't have a plan. He doesn't want one because he doesn't really care. He's now threatening to disband the task force, he's criticizing the CDC, he pulled funding from the WHO, and he's criticizing the governors who he told to manage this themselves and supported protests against them. He's outbidding states for resources and then sending them elsewhere. He's actively fighting the entire nation on this every step of the way. To what end, I don't know -surely something that puts money in his pocket- but he's straight up siding with the virus at this point. It goes way beyond incompetence.

1. Cuomo send CoVid positive patients into nursing homes killing numerous people. Imagine Trump doing that? You want to give him the chair saying “what if it was your mother?”

2. What has Deblasio done?

3. Trumps team developed a phase system and is allowing Governors to determine when they can progress. Everyone on this site was blasting DeSantis but low and behold he’s done way better than Cuomo. I hate to make this political but NY, Michigan, California - which governors have done worse?