OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[Tawnos]

I can definitely understand all of that. Nobody really thought that this would be nearly what it is and has been.

Here's the difference: For whatever reason, people think that DeBlasio and Cuomo did well in response, while Trump did not. That does not make any sense. There isn't much nuance here for this. It's either nobody saw this coming or everyone f***ed up, but here we are with this:



Makes. No. Sense.

Except that all the fluff pieces for how Cuomo is doing definitely help him. He did not do well. Nobody did well. You can't tell by how things are covered.

There's actually a TON of room for nuance in this. A ton.

 

[NYSPORTS]

The Worldwide Lockdown May Be the Greatest Mistake in History

The scary thing is, this is probably correct...

what an angry piece by that writer. Good lord. The meat of the message is honest and scary yet omg, the first two and last paragraph are obnoxious.

It’s not the full picture when he doesn’t include the risk of overwhelming the hospitals and comparing the death rate of a mature disease like TB to this young virus is sadly premature. What an angry fella surrounding some nice work with emotion.

Good lord, look at all his pieces. Happy fella

 

[Leonardo87]

Disney is opening their Shanghai park in the next few weeks under similar precautions

No one allowed in without a reservation, a fraction of the amount of people. I read somewhere Shanghai would clear them for 30% of max capacity but that they’re doing even less

If Disney has success with Shanghai, almost assuredly other places will follow suit

I have reservations in Sept for Disney Orlando. I go every fall for the food and wine festival. I am hearing that they will re-open with limited capacity and only guest resorts will be able to attend at first. They are not accepting any additional reservations till at least June. So it seems that is their plan in Florida as well. At least they can control the amount of people based on their resort reservations.

A park at 30% to 40% capacity can use precautions easier and social distance shouldn’t be an issue. Lines would be more controlled as well.

 

[Ola]

what an angry piece by that writer. Good lord. The meat of the message is honest and scary yet omg, the first two and last paragraph are obnoxious.

It’s not the full picture when he doesn’t include the risk of overwhelming the hospitals and comparing the death rate of a mature disease like TB to this young virus is sadly premature. What an angry fella surrounding some nice work with emotion.

He is probably correct though.

As pointed out by Michael Leviatte, Nobel Price Winner, you got to be able to explain why the curve is starting to drop fast at places with herdy immunity around 20% like NYC and not in other places -- despite NYC and the compareables shutting down at exactly the same time.

He puts herd immunity threshold at below 30%. Other top experts say 10-20%.

This is the curve in NYC:

NYC is nowhere near the herd immunity threshhold as some claim is necessary of 70-80%.

Same with Belgium:

Around 60 dead per 100k the curve starts to go down fast. Before that the curves is plateauing or increasing.

US as a whole:

In places that had a wide outbreak later and could take of the sharpness of the first wave, Corona is not falling nearly as rapidly as in NYC or Belgium:

 

[JimmyG89]

But the thing is, again, it's not really about initial responses. Yes, all of the initial stuff was bad.

But right now, today, Cuomo is taking it very seriously. De Blasio is taking it very seriously. There are valid criticisms of how they're still handling it, in particular De Blasio. That being said, it goes a long way to assure people who are afraid that you have some kind of plan, even if it's flawed.

Trump doesn't have a plan. He doesn't want one because he doesn't really care. He's now threatening to disband the task force, he's criticizing the CDC, he pulled funding from the WHO, and he's criticizing the governors who he told to manage this themselves and supported protests against them. He's outbidding states for resources and then sending them elsewhere. He's actively fighting the entire nation on this every step of the way. To what end, I don't know -surely something that puts money in his pocket- but he's straight up siding with the virus at this point. It goes way beyond incompetence.

Best thing he did. In bed with China. Outright lied to everyone from the get go. The countries that did the best are the ones that did not listen to them because they knew better. Their leadership is garbage which has resulted in this going from something that could have been like SARS or Ebola, which was mostly limited to their specific regions, instead it went global. WHO said we don't need to wear something over your face, no human to human transmission, both incorrect. Places that required face coverings have been much better off, especially South Korea. Now it's recommended we wear masks. Highly comical to say we should give an organization money that is just straight lying or terrible at what they are supposed to be doing.

As for DeBlasio and Cuomo, every decision they made initially is the reason why their response seems so good. They have no choice but to do this now. How can it be so positive when they just shut the subways down YESTERDAY to do a deep clean? We've known for months how this thing lives on metal and other surfaces. It was just shut down to be cleaned YESTERDAY. Let's not even get into how MTA workers are being treated, which is the state's responsibility. Literally uncovered in the subway with the dirty disgusting air and COVID on top of it. They're dying in the tunnels, workers are legit passing out on the job. You know about the schools because you were there. That's their decision and it cost lives across the board. Believe me, I got that list of teachers/staff that died.

Yet, they are getting more than 2/3rds of people to approve of their job. It's outrageous and it just means that they are not being informed on what has really happened here.

Cuomo has used a transparent, facts-based approach, which is a foreign concept to Trump.

An even starker contrast between the two is that Cuomo is capable of expressing empathy in an extraordinarily difficult time for NY. Not only has Trump failed to express any empathy, but he actually criticized and blamed New Yorkers and threatened to withhold federal help.

That's not to say that Cuomo hasn't had his shortcomings throughout this crisis. But standing up and fighting for fellow New Yorkers goes a long way.

Cuomo can spare me the empathy bullshit. He knows how to earn pity points. I don't need it. His plan was to deflect everything up when he wasn't doing things to help the people of the state, especially the city.

I don't need the governor to tell me that NY is strong and resilient. I knew that shit already, we see it everyday with people packing themselves into infested subways, cramming themselves into places where they got sick.

He didn't react. He could have closed down airports, he could have closed schools, he could have done so much more because he has power as the leader of the state. Remember when he kept saying that Trump couldn't close things down and it's his decision, well I think everyone has forgotten that it was his decision to do these things.

The fact is that it does not matter what you say, it matters what you do. All three did things they should not have and apparently only one of them is getting the short end of the stick in NYC.

 

[xbure9x]

I have reservations in Sept for Disney Orlando. I go every fall for the food and wine festival. I am hearing that they will re-open with limited capacity and only guest resorts will be able to attend at first. They are not accepting any additional reservations till at least June. So it seems that is their plan in Florida as well. At least they can control the amount of people based on their resort reservations.

A park at 30% to 40% capacity can use precautions easier and social distance shouldn’t be an issue. Lines would be more controlled as well.

I have a trip booked to universal in July. I am wondering if there is a chance it will be open because honestly whether they open in July or September, it will initially be the same thing with regards to the precautions so if it is open I will definitely be going. My one concern is if they lift the self quarantine requirement upon arriving in Florida. It is still in effect according to the Southwest Airlines website, my flight is on JetBlue and I have not heard one piece of info about that. If things progress well enough to open the parks in Florida by July, would you think this 14 day self quarantine would be lifted as well? Would be kind of shitty if everyone can fly into Orlando and go to the parks except people coming from NY. I would love to see how that would be handled for a refund from the airlines or the parks

 

[NYSPORTS]

He is probably correct though.

As pointed out by Michael Leviatte, Nobel Price Winner, you got to be able to explain why the curve is starting to drop fast at places with herdy immunity around 20% like NYC and not in other places -- despite NYC and the compareables shutting down at exactly the same time.

He puts herd immunity threshold at below 30%. Other top experts say 10-20%.

This is the curve in NYC:


NYC is nowhere near the herd immunity threshhold as some claim is necessary of 70-80%.

Same with Belgium:


Around 60 dead per 100k the curve starts to go down fast. Before that the curves is plateauing or increasing.

US as a whole:


In places that had a wide outbreak later and could take of the sharpness of the first wave, Corona is not falling nearly as rapidly as in NYC or Belgium:
View attachment 345333

the piece which came out of Harvard explained how this works too. Yes, it’s better to get people sick and recover than a few sick and hide the rest (high level paraphrase). Problem is, this would have overrun the healthcare system. That’s what we were trying to avoid.

Outside of Ny, yeah, maybe we should have kept some open but maybe not. Look at Louisiana right after Mardi Gras. It went off like a bomb.

Those who write pieces or make these things Political don’t have the answers. Nobody does. Try to fix one aspect of life and another breaks. Our Government is trying to use stimulus packages to help. They didn’t just shut down and not try to provide aid or not shut down all and watch more people die while preaching “we’re doing it so more people don’t starve to death down the line”. The media would have a field day with that.

One step at a time and the first few steps are going to be shaky regardless. It’s broken and the whole world is trying to fix it. Based on that writers work he was complaining well before this virus was even on the radar.

 

[Leonardo87]

I have a trip booked to universal in July. I am wondering if there is a chance it will be open because honestly whether they open in July or September, it will initially be the same thing with regards to the precautions so if it is open I will definitely be going. My one concern is if they lift the self quarantine requirement upon arriving in Florida. It is still in effect according to the Southwest Airlines website, my flight is on JetBlue and I have not heard one piece of info about that. If things progress well enough to open the parks in Florida by July, would you think this 14 day self quarantine would be lifted as well? Would be kind of shitty if everyone can fly into Orlando and go to the parks except people coming from NY. I would love to see how that would be handled for a refund from the airlines or the parks

I would think the state ban would be lifted before they even open the theme parks. Florida is already on phase 2 I guess you would call it? Restaurants and retail open with limited capacity. Beaches also open. I think by the summer Florida should be entering the later phases and theme parks will be open but with limited capacity.

Quick question, are you staying on the grounds in one of their hotels?

 

[Ola]

Missed the links to my last post:
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Q&A: Nobel laureate says COVID-19 curve could be naturally self-flattening | The Stanford Daily

 

[NYSPORTS]

It means face masks and covering and sanitizer do work. It’s the careless people who don’t use precautions. I want to get back to normal like anyone else but I’m willing to take precautions like wearing a face cover and use sanitizer wherever I go. If everyone takes one or two more steps of inconvenience we can get back to opening things. But people as a whole are ignorant and dumb, sadly.

Did we stop air travel after 9-11? No just took precautions and still do to this day.

too many won’t abide by the rules.

In the hospital/healthcare workers, yeah, it’s a controlled and organized environment. A lot different than the General Public where careless people are everywhere.

 

[Ola]

the piece which came out of Harvard explained how this works too. Yes, it’s better to get people sick and recover than a few sick and hide the rest (high level paraphrase). Problem is, this would have overrun the healthcare system. That’s what we were trying to avoid.

Outside of Ny, yeah, maybe we should have kept some open but maybe not. Look at Louisiana right after Mardi Gras. It went off like a bomb.

Those who write pieces or make these things Political don’t have the answers. Nobody does. Try to fix one aspect of life and another breaks. Our Government is trying to use stimulus packages to help. They didn’t just shut down and not try to provide aid or not shut down all and watch more people die while preaching “we’re doing it so more people don’t starve to death down the line”. The media would have a field day with that.

One step at a time and the first few steps are going to be shaky regardless. It’s broken and the whole world is trying to fix it. Based on that writers work he was complaining well before this virus was even on the radar.

At the same time, those early prognosis had many parameters that were completely wrong. Death rates at 1-3% instead of what all likelihood seem to be 0.25%, herd immunity being reached at 70-90% instead of at 10-20%.

I don't know about the US, but the UK model that got them to close down counted on zero new ER beds being created. As it is -- even NYCs health care did survive, although it of course was very far from optimal. But OTOH, NYC is by far the most high population density area in the US, so if they can survive it, why wouldn't other places?

 

[Machinehead]

Best thing he did. In bed with China. Outright lied to everyone from the get go. The countries that did the best are the ones that did not listen to them because they knew better. Their leadership is garbage which has resulted in this going from something that could have been like SARS or Ebola, which was mostly limited to their specific regions, instead it went global. WHO said we don't need to wear something over your face, no human to human transmission, both incorrect. Places that required face coverings have been much better off, especially South Korea. Now it's recommended we wear masks. Highly comical to say we should give an organization money that is just straight lying or terrible at what they are supposed to be doing.

As for DeBlasio and Cuomo, every decision they made initially is the reason why their response seems so good. They have no choice but to do this now. How can it be so positive when they just shut the subways down YESTERDAY to do a deep clean? We've known for months how this thing lives on metal and other surfaces. It was just shut down to be cleaned YESTERDAY. Let's not even get into how MTA workers are being treated, which is the state's responsibility. Literally uncovered in the subway with the dirty disgusting air and COVID on top of it. They're dying in the tunnels, workers are legit passing out on the job. You know about the schools because you were there. That's their decision and it cost lives across the board. Believe me, I got that list of teachers/staff that died.

Yet, they are getting more than 2/3rds of people to approve of their job. It's outrageous and it just means that they are not being informed on what has really happened here.

You could easily say that Trump also has no choice but to respond now and what's he doing?

We could criticize the responses until the cows come home, I have no problem with that, but what's happening now?

It's May 7th. New York is outperforming every projection and may end this crisis with one of the better curves in the country when all is said and done. That's not just down to the response in the New York, it's down to many other stats not really giving a shit. What's the common denominator between those other states?

And regardless of the response of officials here in New York, Trump has stopped just short of coughing on people and I wouldn't put it past him. "Cuomo bad/De Blasio bad" doesn't absolve him of anything. It's nothing more than meaningless identity politics.

 

[NYSPORTS]

At the same time, those early prognosis had many parameters that were completely wrong. Death rates at 1-3% instead of what all likelihood seem to be 0.25%, herd immunity being reached at 70-90% instead of at 10-20%.

I don't know about the US, but the UK model that got them to close down counted on zero new ER beds being created. As it is -- even NYCs health care did survive, although it of course was very far from optimal. But OTOH, NYC is by far the most high population density area in the US, so if they can survive it, why wouldn't other places?

i can’t get my head around bouncing from country to country, City vs City, hospital vs etc anymore.

Ny was a disaster and i believe we slowed it down. Had we gone about our business as not locked this down i can’t image how bad this would have been.

IMO, right now we need to keep an eye on Georgia. Let’s see what happens by next week.

 

[Machinehead]

It's like we're sitting here debating the best way to cook a steak, Trump walks in and shits on the grill and people are like "well that wasn't it, but none of us really have any answers so whatever."

 

[xbure9x]

I would think the state ban would be lifted before they even open the theme parks. Florida is already on phase 2 I guess you would call it? Restaurants and retail open with limited capacity. Beaches also open. I think by the summer Florida should be entering the later phases and theme parks will be open but with limited capacity.

Quick question, are you staying on the grounds in one of their hotels?

yes staying onsite. here comes my next question, I wonder if they will allow me to extend my reservation. I was originally going for 2 nights and then to my family's condo in Vero beach for a week but my in-laws are still in the condo because they haven't come back to New York yet. im not sure if it would be worth it to go all the way down there just for 3 days because Im not staying at the condo with them and my family lol.
I guess let's make sure it opens first then I'll go from there

 

[NYSPORTS]

It's like we're sitting here debating the best way to cook a steak, Trump walks in and shits on the grill and people are like "well that wasn't it, but none of us really have any answers so whatever."

and guy sitting at the table eating dog food adamantly claims he has all the answers to grilling steak.

 

[Leonardo87]

yes staying onsite. here comes my next question, I wonder if they will allow me to extend my reservation. I was originally going for 2 nights and then to my family's condo in Vero beach for a week but my in-laws are still in the condo because they haven't come back to New York yet. im not sure if it would be worth it to go all the way down there just for 3 days because Im not staying at the condo with them and my family lol.
I guess let's make sure it opens first then I'll go from there

Im not sure of universal’s guidelines now. I know Disney is not taking any “new” reservations but you should be able to modify. It’s good you are staying on the grounds because from what I’ve heard between Other Disney and Universal passholders and (this is just speculation but makes sense), that the parks will only be open to guests staying on property for their first re-open phase.

 

[Machinehead]

and guy sitting at the table eating dog food adamantly claims he has all the answers to grilling steak.

Who has said that?

 

[Ola]

i can’t get my head around bouncing from country to country, City vs City, hospital vs etc anymore.

Ny was a disaster and i believe we slowed it down. Had we gone about our business as not locked this down i can’t image how bad this would have been.

IMO, right now we need to keep an eye on Georgia. Let’s see what happens by next week.

I know, it is easy to feel like this, but I am basically 100% sure its not the case lol.

Here is why: It is a fact that no lock-out has had any significant effect the first 5-6 weeks anywhere. First of all it takes 3.5 weeks from infection to a death on average. Second of all, when you lock-down, you put family members in close quarters with infected people in many cases, so at least for another couple of weeks the spread can actually increase. This is very established.

Here is the 3 week period from when NYC locked down:

So after 21 days, you are already past the peak. Add two weeks to this, i.e. late april, and numbers are waaaay down already.

But then comes the natural question -- Ola, doesn't it seem really obvious like that the shut down worked a little faster than 3 weeks in NYC and then have had a tremendous effect?? Yeah it does, if we only look at NYC. The same lock-down don't even remotely have the same effect at any other place.

Like Michael Leviette puts it, "You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect. "

Because its a fact, that no other place even remotely had the same effect downward like NYC. In all other places, despite lock-downs put in place earlier in the process than NYC, i.e. earlier in relation to first death, 10th death or whatever -- the curves keeps climbing today. NYC peaked 5 april and the curve have been heading down since. Boston, Chicago, California, NJ and so forth -- they have not had their curve start to drop yet. The ones that have dropping curves are the hardest hit places like NYC, Belgium, Italy and Spain. Sweden too.

It cannot be a coincidence that the curves at all those places start to drop when immunity start to get up towards 20%, while it never drops at all in any other place (with some kind of significant wide spread in the society, some have shut it down completely, but that is anotehr question) that doesn't have an immunity up towards 10-20%. But instead often 3-4%. No matter how strict lockdowns.

Independently, you have a scientist group like this -- very established and big, from all parts of the globe -- showing how herd immunity in their mathematical model should be expected to be 10-20% instead of 50 or 90 or whatever discussed by some.
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Their rationale for it is quite simple, many people are much much much more likely to be infected by others, be it that you are a frontline worker or has a weak immunity system, and the first 10-20% that gets will be so over representative in likeliness to get infected that it is compareable to up to 4x as many being infected.

 

[ETTER DE]

A little update from Norway as we are now starting to open up again.
Total infected: ca 8000. Deaths 215.

Kindergarten and the first 4 school grades have already opened a couple of weeks ago. From monday 5-10 graders can get back to school and high schools will open.
Groups of up to 20 people is allowed (1 meter between them). For public arrangements it is 50 people.
This means that organised training for athletes can be up to to 20 people.
Sports halls, playing fields can be used but not the showers
Employers in larger cities whose employees use public transportation must try to make arrangements so that they can work from home (Includes me)

From June 1st

Amusement parks can open.
Pubs, coffee shops can open (no food is allowed so no restaurants)
Organised swimming (also schools) returns

From June 15th
Up to 200 people in public arrangements
Intention to open gyms and swimming halls for all
The top soccer league can start to play

Myself: Have been working from home since 13th of march. Not much to do besides shopping groceries and playing golf and reading the forum. Been a little bit careful because of diabetes type 2 and a couple of other things.

Hopefully you guys in NYC (and elsewhere) soon will be over the top too.

 

[Machinehead]

I know, it is easy to feel like this, but I am basically 100% sure its not the case lol.

Here is why: It is a fact that no lock-out has had any significant effect the first 5-6 weeks anywhere. First of all it takes 3.5 weeks from infection to a death on average. Second of all, when you lock-down, you put family members in close quarters with infected people in many cases, so at least for another couple of weeks the spread can actually increase. This is very established.

Here is the 3 week period from when NYC locked down:
View attachment 345341

So after 21 days, you are already past the peak. Add two weeks to this, i.e. late april, and numbers are waaaay down already.

But then comes the natural question -- Ola, doesn't it seem really obvious like that the shut down worked a little faster than 3 weeks in NYC and then have had a tremendous effect?? Yeah it does, if we only look at NYC. The same lock-down don't even remotely have the same effect at any other place.

Like Michael Leviette puts it, "You could say that each of these places stopped because they had wonderful social distancing, or we can simply say they stopped because there was no one left to infect. "

Because its a fact, that no other place even remotely had the same effect downward like NYC. In all other places, despite lock-downs put in place earlier in the process than NYC, i.e. earlier in relation to first death, 10th death or whatever -- the curves keeps climbing today. NYC peaked 5 april and the curve have been heading down since. Boston, Chicago, California, NJ and so forth -- they have not had their curve start to drop yet. The ones that have dropping curves are the hardest hit places like NYC, Belgium, Italy and Spain. Sweden too.

It cannot be a coincidence that the curves at all those places start to drop when immunity start to get up towards 20%, while it never drops at all in any other place (with some kind of significant wide spread in the society, some have shut it down completely, but that is anotehr question) that doesn't have an immunity up towards 10-20%. But instead often 3-4%. No matter how strict lockdowns.

Independently, you have a scientist group like this -- very established and big, from all parts of the globe -- showing how herd immunity in their mathematical model should be expected to be 10-20% instead of 50 or 90 or whatever discussed by some.
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Their rationale for it is quite simple, many people are much much much more likely to be infected by others, be it that you are a frontline worker or has a weak immunity system, and the first 10-20% that gets will be so over representative in likeliness to get infected that it is compareable to up to 4x as many being infected.

I do see the pattern of the hardest hit places coming down the quickest, although I think fear and relative lack of mobility among the population may have something to do with that.

I also concede that particular susceptibility lowers the threshold.

That being said, there's no way herd immunity kicks in at 20%. That just seems impossible to me.

My other problem is that the article states: " the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline." That's a very nice way of saying people die by the thousands. That's going to suck for places where that hasn't already happened.

 

[sbjnyc]

 

[JimmyG89]

it's down to many other stats not really giving a shit.

The states you are referring to have nowhere near the infection rates that the NYC area does. Nowhere close to it.

Check infection rates. All are dropping across the board, in NYC, NYS, and in all other locations. Testing is skyrocketing, so of course positive cases are too. Deaths lag for weeks, so death rates rising is not something that restricts from re-opening. It's solely the infection rate and the percentage of space in hospitals to treat those that do get sick. That was the point of this entire exercise.

Deaths are tragic. Nobody likes them, but they do not tell the story for re-opening.



The curve is bending for everyone, across the board. If locations have hospitals that can handle new cases as they are coming in, have ICU space, have the ability to treat people, it's time to turn that faucet on a little bit and get some things up and running. It's then up to you if you want to go out into places.

 

[Machinehead]

The states you are referring to have nowhere near the infection rates that the NYC area does. Nowhere close to it.

Check infection rates. All are dropping across the board, in NYC, NYS, and in all other locations. Testing is skyrocketing, so of course positive cases are too. Deaths lag for weeks, so death rates rising is not something that restricts from re-opening. It's solely the infection rate and the percentage of space in hospitals to treat those that do get sick. That was the point of this entire exercise.

Deaths are tragic. Nobody likes them, but they do not tell the story for re-opening.



The curve is bending for everyone, across the board. If locations have hospitals that can handle new cases as they are coming in, have ICU space, have the ability to treat people, it's time to turn that faucet on a little bit and get some things up and running. It's then up to you if you want to go out into places.

It's not bending across the board. You literally posted a chart where the US excluding New York is still going up.

Again, what's the common denominator there?

 

[JimmyG89]

It's not bending across the board. You literally posted a chart where the US excluding New York is still going up.

Again, what's the common denominator there?

Yes, the first chart is junk, just new cases. No relation to testing. 2nd is new cases in relation to new testing. 3rd is infection rate.

I would assume you know how to read charts.