OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[eco's bones]

I think this is the essence of why so many early models were completely ridiculous.

Its described in this report:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf

Many persons are just not susceptible to a virus. You beat it at the door step so to speak. As people get infected and subsequently immune, it simultaneously reduce the virus ability to reproduce itself. With a voluntary vaccination program, if you vaccinate 10% you can count on that the virus R0 value is reduced 10%. You will have vaccinated both people susceptible to the virus as well as people that are not susceptible to the virus, so the effect is just 10%.

With disease-induced immunity, you get a positive benefit from the natural selection. The persons most likely to get the virus will become immune first on average of course.

So to calculate on the true impact of disease-induced immunity you must multiply it with a coefficient. They don't know what that is yet, but the best comparables they can find indicates a coefficient of 2 to 4.

At the bottom line this has a huuuge impact. If 10% of a population have disease-induced immunity -- a coefficient of 4 gives you a direct reduction of the R factor of 40%. With limited restrictions you should surely be able to bring down the R value to a range where 40% effective immunity brings the R0 value below 1, meaning that cases cannot grow.

If the Liverpool study is correct, it basically means that all places can have cases that goes up towards 10% of the population, but after that it will start to drop pretty rapidly with just limited social distancing efforts. It will be a huge positive factor when NYC opens up again...

There are still questions about immunity or even limited immunity in respect to this virus. The virus also seems to have morphed off in different directions as recently seen in the new cases appearing among children, teenagers and younger adults. IMO what we're seeing now in NYS (even if not so much in other states) are structures being put in place to take on a second wave of this virus or other future pandemics. Ramping up testing and tracing, coordinating and sorting out issues between public and private hospitals, a primer on how to set public health and safety policy in a time of pandemic which also should mean learning from mistakes made and not repeating them the next time, also understanding the importance to not be caught short again on medical equipment and supplies again and hopefully we will start producing and manufacturing much of those things ourselves in the future instead of being dependent on other nations.

There is a prevalent mindset in the United States particularly among the political elites that health care is not a human right and that it should be subject in pretty much every aspect to for profit enterprises. This has hampered our responding to this pandemic in an organized way. Too many millions of people uninsured or underinsured worried that a trip to the doctor or a hospital is tantamount to financial ruin. Medical bills are the leading cause of bankruptcy in the United States. As well leaving the response up to 50 state governors to do as they will can only lead to an uncoordinated response. IMO this didn't have to be as bad or even as nearly as bad as it turned out to be for us. There are lessons to be learned and neither our health care system or our political response to the pandemic proved to be up to the job. It's why we have the most cases and it's why we have the most deaths. We need to have the structures in place and a coordinated political response the next time something like this happens.

 

[Machinehead]

 

[True Blue]

I didn't realize Cuomo was also governor of Minnesota. Anyway do you have a link? Deaths in nursing homes in NYS was under 5k and aren't all attributed to the state's decision.

Minnesotta has nothing to do with NY. That was there to highlight the effect of how much of the overall mortality rate is attributed to nursing homes.

Just google and you will get the results. One third of the overall Covid deaths in America are attributed to what has gone on in nursing homes.

You do not believe that ordering nursing homes to take Covid patients where they went on to infect the people who are at the highest risk category is not a large contributor the the nursing homes massacre? The fact of the matter is the the overall mortality rate could have been much, much better if you had taken care of those in the highest risk category. Instead, Cuomo consigned them to a death sentence.

 

[True Blue]

With regards to masks, in general yes they are a good idea. But there are some instances where they are just not practical. Kids have to get back to real school. Ok, you can state that you will put masks on them only to have them taken off in gym or lunch? They are also not practical when kids play sports, unless the plan is to never have any kind of organized sports ever again. Same goes for college cafeterias and athletics. Same goes for professional athletics. Can't really have a mask on when you are swimming. The solution cannot be to never teach kids to swim ever again.

If you are sitting on a beach at 95 degrees, again, the mask aspect looses practicality. Same goes really for any type of exercising. Or any dining out locale.

Again, in general yes, but it cannot simply be a blanket rule. And in some things may well come to choices that people have to make and what risk they deem as too much or not enough not to conduct an activity. That goes for adults and kids. If parent feels that their child is not safe at a school, then they have a choice to make regarding private tutoring (not a cheap option) or having them be home schooled with themselves as the teacher.

 

[Machinehead]

With regards to masks, in general yes they are a good idea. But there are some instances where they are just not practical. Kids have to get back to real school. Ok, you can state that you will put masks on them only to have them taken off in gym or lunch? They are also not practical when kids play sports, unless the plan is to never have any kind of organized sports ever again. Same goes for college cafeterias and athletics. Same goes for professional athletics. Can't really have a mask on when you are swimming. The solution cannot be to never teach kids to swim ever again.

If you are sitting on a beach at 95 degrees, again, the mask aspect looses practicality. Same goes really for any type of exercising. Or any dining out locale.

Again, in general yes, but it cannot simply be a blanket rule. And in some things may well come to choices that people have to make and what risk they deem as too much or not enough not to conduct an activity. That goes for adults and kids. If parent feels that their child is not safe at a school, then they have a choice to make regarding private tutoring (not a cheap option) or having them be home schooled with themselves as the teacher.

The world won't end if we don't do gym class for a year.

 

[sbjnyc]

Minnesotta has nothing to do with NY. That was there to highlight the effect of how much of the overall mortality rate is attributed to nursing homes.

Just google and you will get the results. One third of the overall Covid deaths in America are attributed to what has gone on in nursing homes.

You do not believe that ordering nursing homes to take Covid patients where they went on to infect the people who are at the highest risk category is not a large contributor the the nursing homes massacre? The fact of the matter is the the overall mortality rate could have been much, much better if you had taken care of those in the highest risk category. Instead, Cuomo consigned them to a death sentence.

The one third is nationwide but you implied it was all on Cuomo which is why I asked you about it. I have no idea why you brought up Minnesota. In fact the article you (apparently) cited reports 20% in New York. Still bad so Cuomo isn't off the hook but one of the lowest rates of every state and far from the 1/3 figure you cited since we were discussing Cuomo specifically.

 

[Synergy27]

With regards to masks, in general yes they are a good idea. But there are some instances where they are just not practical. Kids have to get back to real school. Ok, you can state that you will put masks on them only to have them taken off in gym or lunch? They are also not practical when kids play sports, unless the plan is to never have any kind of organized sports ever again. Same goes for college cafeterias and athletics. Same goes for professional athletics. Can't really have a mask on when you are swimming. The solution cannot be to never teach kids to swim ever again.

If you are sitting on a beach at 95 degrees, again, the mask aspect looses practicality. Same goes really for any type of exercising. Or any dining out locale.

Again, in general yes, but it cannot simply be a blanket rule. And in some things may well come to choices that people have to make and what risk they deem as too much or not enough not to conduct an activity. That goes for adults and kids. If parent feels that their child is not safe at a school, then they have a choice to make regarding private tutoring (not a cheap option) or having them be home schooled with themselves as the teacher.

Or, you know, unless the plan is to not play sports for some amount of time between now and forever until we get our collective shit together.

 

[True Blue]

The world won't end if we don't do gym class for a year.

Probably not end, but such activity is important for their physical health. Again, just about view points

 

[Machinehead]

Probably not end, but such activity is important for their physical health. Again, just about view points

Absolutely, but I think there's more important things for their physical health going on right now.

 

[True Blue]

Or, you know, unless the plan is to not play sports for some amount of time between now and forever until we get our collective shit together.

What does that even mean? Waiting for some miraculous vaccine that may never come? Organized athletics is far more important to kids than people realize.

 

[True Blue]

The one third is nationwide but you implied it was all on Cuomo which is why I asked you about it. I have no idea why you brought up Minnesota. In fact the article you (apparently) cited reports 20% in New York. Still bad so Cuomo isn't off the hook but one of the lowest rates of every state and far from the 1/3 figure you cited since we were discussing Cuomo specifically.

A radio report cited 30% rate in NYC. The 20% is NY State. At any rate, I never implied that Cuomo was responsible for that on a national level. He is however, responsible on a local level. If you really want to quibble about it, fine let's say it is 20% in NYC. That is still a material amount for the local mortality rate. And one third of the national rate being from nursing homes is a fairly staggering amount.

 

[True Blue]

Absolutely, but I think there's more important things for their physical health going on right now.

Physical and mental. Or is the intent to not have any summer camps for the kids and not to let them associate with each other? How are you going to put on masks for the little kids in day care?

 

[sbjnyc]

A radio report cited 30% rate in NYC. The 20% is NY State. At any rate, I never implied that Cuomo was responsible for that on a national level. He is however, responsible on a local level. If you really want to quibble about it, fine let's say it is 20% in NYC. That is still a material amount for the local mortality rate. And one third of the national rate being from nursing homes is a fairly staggering amount.

It is. It's almost like it's a national problem.

 

[Machinehead]

Physical and mental. Or is the intent to not have any summer camps for the kids and not to let them associate with each other? How are you going to put on masks for the little kids in day care?

You're building a strawman, here. Of course kids should go back to school and associate. It's necessary. That being said, it's a risky endeavor and there are specific activities in school which, for the short-term (in the grade scheme of things), may not be entirely necessary or simply, the risk outweighs the benefits.

There can be some time for physical activity, but having adults play team sports is a risk and has to be closely managed, let alone kids.

Getting kids to wear a mask is going to be like getting them to do anything -- not easy but not impossible.

 

[Off Sides]

I know someone who works in the development mental health field, they said what happened at some of the facilities and group homes they oversee, was the staff was unwilling to show up.

There are rules about staff to patient ratio.

So they had to try to send those people somewhere else, however what they found were some facilities or homes could not take them due to having the same issue, and others were already at peak capacity.

I have no idea if that also was partially what led to the nursing home issue many states faced, but if so it seems like this was a lot more complicated than let's just send these sick or possibly sick people to the proper place as there was no real proper place to send them.

 

[Synergy27]

What does that even mean? Waiting for some miraculous vaccine that may never come? Organized athletics is far more important to kids than people realize.

It means that your argument, which includes hyperbolic statements about “forever”, is not in good faith. No one is talking about forever.

For me, personally, I’d like to hold off on making decisions until we have a better idea about what is actually going on. I’d like to live in a world in which governments or those in charge of such things were actively pursuing data and informing the public about risk from a quantitative perspective. The world you seem to be envisioning, or at least resigned to, one in which we can’t really know anything and therefore can’t be expected to impact anything with our actions, so, f*** it let’s get back to it now, isn’t for me.

 

[will1066]

You're building a strawman, here. Of course kids should go back to school and associate. It's necessary. That being said, it's a risky endeavor and there are specific activities in school which, for the short-term (in the grade scheme of things), may not be entirely necessary or simply, the risk outweighs the benefits.

There can be some time for physical activity, but having adults play team sports is a risk and has to be closely managed, let alone kids.

Getting kids to wear a mask is going to be like getting them to do anything -- not easy but not impossible.

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah, that's the exact guy.

 

[chosen]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...bc6d10-9ab4-11ea-a282-386f56d579e6_story.html

Hot spots erupting. Maybe it was too early to celebrate

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

One of the most detailed interviews about testing and how we are likely to see second and third waves of infections that I have seen. I would always take sites like these with a HUGE grain of salt but the information is coming straight from a Cellular Neurobiologist. Very interesting.

Scroll down to the audio files

Medical Experts Say A Second Wave of COVID-19 Is Coming Fall 2020 — And Could Be Worse Mixed with Fall Flu Season. Mp3 Audio Interview with Prof. Jay Couey, Ph.D., Cellular Neurobiologist, Univ. of Pittsburgh.

 

[Machinehead]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...bc6d10-9ab4-11ea-a282-386f56d579e6_story.html

Hot spots erupting. Maybe it was too early to celebrate

Second wave in the South? When did their first wave end?

 

[Machinehead]

Coronavirus: *subsides in about 8 states that got it earlier*

The 42 other states:

 

[eco's bones]

I know someone who works in the development mental health field, they said what happened at some of the facilities and group homes they oversee, was the staff was unwilling to show up.

There are rules about staff to patient ratio.

So they had to try to send those people somewhere else, however what they found were some facilities or homes could not take them due to having the same issue, and others were already at peak capacity.

I have no idea if that also was partially what led to the nursing home issue many states faced, but if so it seems like this was a lot more complicated than let's just send these sick or possibly sick people to the proper place as there was no real proper place to send them.

From my experience there are the good nursing homes, the okay ones and the bad ones and okay and bad ones each outnumber the good ones. You can tell a lot by cleanliness or by the food a home will serve. You can tell a lot if most of the staff are friendly or at least not pissed off all the time. In many of these homes there is a ton of turnover constantly going on with the staff. Nursing homes are notorious for paying low wages and a lot of these places cut corners like nobody's business and in a lot the staff are treated like shit. Again the food and a clean environment is important. Something like fresh fruit and vegetables everyday instead of out of a can everyday. Different choices of entrees at every meal--not a take it or leave it. Activities. Music. Flowers. Day trips if possible. And you have plenty of people who just dump their parents and grandparents and forget about them though nursing homes are also notorious for sucking estates dry.

If you have a low wage job in an unhappy shithole of a place that only cares about the bottom line then you know maybe you don't show up and risk your life in a time of pandemic. Without a doubt there will be places that try to hang on to their patients no matter how sick they are because they can mean a lot of money and that will probably at least figure into at least some of the nursing home deaths in NYS.

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Was just on Monday to keep working from home for another 8-10 weeks. I'm fine with it. No point in risking going into the city when there are three layers of travel.