I haven't listened yet, but I will.
Just one thing, many waves are sure to come (even if we get a vaccine, it is likely not 100%). But by many accounts it don't at all have to be as bad as this one or even the "normal" flu.
1. A lot of things point at that we will be able to protect the elders much better. In Sweden nursing homes are "cleared" of Covid on a regular basis. The second largest city, Malmö, has managed to keep it out of the nursing homes really well from Day 1. A big reason for the disasters we have seen in nursing homes have definitely been that they were "under-resourced" from Day 1. Most personell are assistant nurses and they have the lowest paid jobs by a wide margin in Stockholm, only compareable to iffy cleaning services. Average time of employment is low, and a huge portion of the personel work at a place for a few months, not years. A huuuge porition have subpar language skills, and many down right poor language skills/barely speaks Swedish. They have had accesss to little to none protective gear. Anonomyous surveys show that many went to work with mild flu symptoms long into the pandemic.
If the nursing homes are protected -- 50% of the battle is won. Its not about preventing covid from ever coming into a nursing home (to start with). Many places have had up towards 50 effin % of the elders infected, and you often hear numbers of how around 1/3 - 1/2 of the nursing homes had elders with Covid. If these numbers can be reduced to like 1/10 having odd cases -- which seems to be possible with more resources and clearer guidelines -- that alone has a huge impact.
2. By all accounts the effect of the virus is dying down all over the western world at about the same rate. Climate. We have a significant level of immunity. 10% is significant in itself. Reduced a R value from 1.5 t0 1.35.
This is the difference between 1,000 cases left alone with an R value of 1.5 and with a R value reduced with 10% to 1.35 -- over just two months (showing total cases, the number at the X axis is Covid's cycle, which is days x4, so 16 = 64 days):
View attachment 347050
More and more experts, with more and more support, are pointing out that even if the immunity headcount is low, in like NYC around 10%, and other places like 2-3%, it doesn't show the true picture. A coefficient must be applied, that is believed to be around 3. That alone has a really drastic impact on the above curve.
3. Our habits will change if not for good, for a long time going forward. Just take something as simple as going to work with a bad flu. Hands up anyone who ever popped like an aspirin to push down a fever to go to work? Despite having a bad cough or whatever. At my firm we all did it. I once got a bad pnemonia for working through a flu, it was really bad to be honest. I had a closing my last day at work, after it my collegues asked half jokingly how are you Ola? And I joked and said "think of Tom Hanks in Philadelphia, but worse". I ride a train into Stockholm. January-February you get a sympohny of coughing constantly before this thing.
These things will just not be accepted anymore. I herd one expert make this comparison: You have a colleague who shows up to work, sits at his desk, and then all of a sudden starts running to the bathroom, and then comes out saying 'darn I cannot shake the stomach flu I got, I am puking all the time' before going back to work along with the rest of us. How many would accept that? Everyone would go 'wtf go home, now!!!!!'. This is supposedly -- exactly -- how people in Japan would feel if someone showed up for work with a bad cough. I cannot imagine -- not even remotely -- going to work with a fever and a bad cough in February 2021, 2022, 2023 and probably for a good number of years. Forever? Who knows. But it will be different.
Even if it might be theoretically possible for an asymptomatic person infected with Covid to pass it on, and especially for people with mild symptoms, its of course those who get a severe infection that is most infectious by far.
Stuff like this will have a huuuuge impact too. Add on masks and what not.
4. A study by JP Morgan has gone viral. They are pointing at this -- and claiming that the current situation in the US with wide ongoing full scale lock-outs is purely a result of the political climate and they are showing how most lockdowns still ongoing are doing much more damage than good -- looking at covid cases alone.
Its a good read!
I wouldn't trust anything JP Morgan says, but they are putting their money where their mouths are and there is little I would trust more when it comes to an analysis of reality than those made by the world's investors. Nobody has a bigger completely unbiased incentive to be right in this regard then them.
The stock market are surely pushing some unmotivated surges shortly thereafter followed by big downfalls, because trades benefit on the volatility. But they are counting on this thing being over already. If they are wrong, it will cost them a tremendous amount of money. They have the most resources and have snatched up the top experts a long time ago. If they believed that a second wave was coming soon, this summer already or in the fall, the stock market wouldn't look like it does right now. Not even remotely.
The current full scale lockdowns are 100% driven by politics.
