OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part V

[Metranger]

Because 90% of the posters here weren't alive (or a thought) the last time there was inflation.

Wouldn't there be deflation since folks won't want to spend money so prices will drop? Esp. if they don't have much money? Or will their pockets be line with unemployment money.

 

[eco's bones]

Because 90% of the posters here weren't alive (or a thought) the last time there was inflation.

Just where exactly do you see prices going up when this virus is finally beaten down? Real estate? Oil? If 30 or 50% of the population has taken a major economic hit--many without jobs or unable to pay their rent or utilities or whatever. Are cars going to be more expensive when it's a lot harder to find buyers. I can see certain things going up like meat maybe but that's mostly because right now production is bottoming out. We'll be healthier eating more vegetables anyway. But when the local auto dealer can't sell cars because banks won't approve loans to people who don't have the means to repay the loans (like they would have been able to a few months ago) what happens then? Does the car dealer raise his prices? He can I guess. Will that help him to sell more though?

But anyway if you're talking about the late 70's I was very much alive. I lost my job at National Homes then. It was kind of a shit job but our area also lost both firetruck manufacturing companies Ward and American Lafrance and the A&P food processing plant which at that time was the largest food processing plant in the country and a few other manufacturing and industrial plants as well and so at least where I was a good % of people were absolutely f***ed--that in fact is why I went in the Coast Guard--not because I'm a some super wave the flag guy but because I needed a job and because the region I lived in was like a two ton bomb had been dropped on it.

What's happening now is not that.

 

[Ola]

Just where exactly do you see prices going up when this virus is finally beaten down? Real estate? Oil? If 30 or 50% of the population has taken a major economic hit--many without jobs or unable to pay their rent or utilities or whatever. Are cars going to be more expensive when it's a lot harder to find buyers. I can see certain things going up like meat maybe but that's mostly because right now production is bottoming out. We'll be healthier eating more vegetables anyway. But when the local auto dealer can't sell cars because banks won't approve loans to people who don't have the means to repay the loans (like they would have been able to a few months ago) what happens then? Does the car dealer raise his prices? He can I guess. Will that help him to sell more though?

But anyway if you're talking about the late 70's I was very much alive. I lost my job at National Homes then. It was kind of a shit job but our area also lost both firetruck manufacturing companies Ward and American Lafrance and the A&P food processing plant which at that time was the largest food processing plant in the country and a few other manufacturing and industrial plants as well and so at least where I was a good % of people were absolutely f***ed--that in fact is why I went in the Coast Guard--not because I'm a some super wave the flag guy but because I needed a job and because the region I lived in was like a two ton bomb had been dropped on it.

What's happening now is not that.

I am no expert, but fairly certain that the USD must take a beating for inflation to go up.

Inflation is a common effect of a recession followed by very big stimulation moves. But that is because others start to doubt that economy, which means that (a) all imported gods become more expensive (b) other nations will buy gods from that country because it’s cheaper (ie the country is somewhat “drained” of gods), and (c) the countries interest rates go up when they loan money, which in turn spills over to national loans. This means that gods become more expensive, all mortgages become more expensive, it’s more expensive for company’s to finance their business so they must raise prices and so forth.

There is a financial term for it that I don’t remember, but it’s in essence “the perfect storm”. A country has a recession and on top of that that they inflation which forces “the fed” to increase rates which will slow down the economy even more.

Can this happen in the US? Certainly in a country like Sweden. Very small currency, easily affected. But for the USD to get smacked now something very bad would have to happen in the US but not Asia/Europe — and that doesn’t seem to be on the map.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/cuomo-outlines-rough-plan-for-reopening-new-york-in-phases/

Shocked nobody has posted this yet. Judging by his outline we won't be opening anything up anytime soon, especially in the Westchester/NYC/L.I. areas.

“Phase one of reopening will involve construction and manufacturing activities, and within construction and manufacturing, those businesses that have a low risk,” said Cuomo.
The state would then take two weeks to monitor for any flare-ups of the disease, before potentially moving on to the next step, Cuomo said.
“Phase two would then be more a business-by-business analysis,” said the governor.
That calculus would include looks at “how essential a service does that business provide, and how risky is that business,” said Cuomo.
Individual businesses cleared for reopening would have to thoughtfully consider what precautions they can take towards preventing a coronavirus resurgence.p.

Cuomo stressed that hard-hit New York City and its suburbs will likely lag behind in the process.
“Downstate New York is going to be more complicated,” he said. “You can’t do anything in New York City that you don’t do in Suffolk, you don’t do in Nassau, you don’t do in Westchester.”

Don't expect anywhere Westchester and below to be anywhere close back to normal before June 15th..at least how I read that. Upstate areas with low population may start getting back to a little normal June 1st as long as there are no flare ups from May 15th-June 1st when they allow minor things like construction to reopen.

Yikes.

 

[ponytrekker]

Just where exactly do you see prices going up when this virus is finally beaten down?

What's happening now is not that.

If it's beatine downthat is one thing. If not, I see the prices for food and tp going up.

 

[NYSPORTS]

So true.

The late 1970s and early 1980s were brutal. My first mortgage 14.5% interest.

But can you imagine the 20-30-40% that third world countries have gone through at times? You simply can’t print money forever.

imagine getting 14-17% interest on your savings account lol.

No wonder people always preached you can live off the interest.

Not today

 

[eco's bones]

I am no expert, but fairly certain that the USD must take a beating for inflation to go up.

Inflation is a common effect of a recession followed by very big stimulation moves. But that is because others start to doubt that economy, which means that (a) all imported gods become more expensive (b) other nations will buy gods from that country because it’s cheaper (ie the country is somewhat “drained” of gods), and (c) the countries interest rates go up when they loan money, which in turn spills over to national loans. This means that gods become more expensive, all mortgages become more expensive, it’s more expensive for company’s to finance their business so they must raise prices and so forth.

There is a financial term for it that I don’t remember, but it’s in essence “the perfect storm”. A country has a recession and on top of that that they inflation which forces “the fed” to increase rates which will slow down the economy even more.

Can this happen in the US? Certainly in a country like Sweden. Very small currency, easily affected. But for the USD to get smacked now something very bad would have to happen in the US but not Asia/Europe — and that doesn’t seem to be on the map.

Yeah well retailers here who have made their living in the past selling goods from other countries are going to be taking a shellacking coming out of this. Just saying. For so many people the main concerns are going to be how am I going to pay for my rent, utilities and food to eat and if you've just lost your job along with millions of others you're not going to be spending more than necessary on clothes and not going to buy unnecessary gizmos either......and meanwhile a lot of people are going to be leery of walking into big box stores and shopping malls or anyplace that's crowded and retailers are going to have to get really strategic if they want to save Xmas. So I see the demand for foreign goods going down. As far as mortgages tons of people are refinancing at lower rates right now. My youngest sister works for a real estate lawyer. I was talking to her today. She was telling me about all the closings for refinancings she has to do before the end of the month because interest is down. Other people aren't going to be able to pay the rent they use to pay. Where are they going to go if they're evicted? If we're talking in hundreds of thousands, millions of people being chucked out on the street at the same time who is going to replace them? There are degrees of being poor but at the end of the day the poor are still poor.

All in all I see a restructuring of the economy.

 

[frozenrubber]

There is a financial term for it that I don’t remember, but it’s in essence “the perfect storm”. A country has a recession and on top of that that they inflation which forces “the fed” to increase rates which will slow down the economy even more.

Stagflation

 

[eco's bones]

If it's beatine downthat is one thing. If not, I see the prices for food and tp going up.

I could see that too. I could also see congresspeople and Senators whenever they're back in their districts or states getting unrelenting pressure from their constituents for more stimulus--the federal reserve people getting an earful from the politicians then--however all that works out.

My mom (b.1922) and dad (b.1923) both grew up during the depression. My dad was an only child and his father worked for the post office---so he had a dependable job throughout. My mom's dad worked for American Lafrance--one of the firetruck manufacturers but that was always very iffy. He was off and on all the time. 3/4's of the people back then had vegetable gardens in their backyards and/or neighborhood plots and they shared and were often living hand to mouth. In some respects my mom and dad had similar perspectives of how all that was and in other respects not so much.

 

[eco's bones]

I am no expert, but fairly certain that the USD must take a beating for inflation to go up.

Inflation is a common effect of a recession followed by very big stimulation moves. But that is because others start to doubt that economy, which means that (a) all imported gods become more expensive (b) other nations will buy gods from that country because it’s cheaper (ie the country is somewhat “drained” of gods), and (c) the countries interest rates go up when they loan money, which in turn spills over to national loans. This means that gods become more expensive, all mortgages become more expensive, it’s more expensive for company’s to finance their business so they must raise prices and so forth.

There is a financial term for it that I don’t remember, but it’s in essence “the perfect storm”. A country has a recession and on top of that that they inflation which forces “the fed” to increase rates which will slow down the economy even more.

Can this happen in the US? Certainly in a country like Sweden. Very small currency, easily affected. But for the USD to get smacked now something very bad would have to happen in the US but not Asia/Europe — and that doesn’t seem to be on the map.

To go a little further I think we're in an absolutely unprecedented never charted before situation and if the most some people can think that this is going to cause is hyperinflation---millions of people out of work and unable to afford a roof over their head is much more than that and changes the economic dynamic beyond anything anyone here has ever seen. As well we're on the cusp of an election which depending on how that turns out at not only the presidential level but in how congress shakes out is going to inform how this is dealt with at least for the next couple years until the midterm election that follows after that.

So everyone here when they talk about our future economy is doing a bit of guessing---some looking at it more from the business perspective and some looking at it more from a people perspective. I just don't see how you can leave millions of people out in cold and that's the premise I'm working from---and to learn no lessons from this either---just apply the same old band aids to even deeper and bloodier cuts.

By the way I was wikipedia-ing a little today. The United States currently (even with our own limited testing) has more positive Covid-19 cases than the next 6 highest countries combined which are Italy, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Turkey. We're almost at the million mark--the highest of the rest is 209,000. I don't think there's much of a case for saying we responded to this at all well.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[True Blue]

Yes, part of the slowing down of things can be attributed to what you are saying. But is there really any question that a lockdown helped flatten things out? How is that even questionable, of course it helped slow things down. As you are saying, still plenty to learn about this virus. Which is all the more reason why delaying things as much as possible will only lead to handling this better on a pure health level.

And the people who are more on the side of staying home are worried about living again. I understand their fears, but it just isn't as bad losing that many potential lives. Again, I am referring to a place like NY here and not the places that haven't been hit overly hard.

I appreciate the sentiment (which probably sounds sarcastic based on all of our back and forth, but it isn't.)

There is not question that the lockdown had helped. The only question that exists is how much did it help or was this thing not as deadly as originally thought and it might not have needed such a complete lockdown. Or when it is time to start to reopen.

The sentiment is for real. Like I said, I have friends who are not earning paychecks at this point. The fear is not so much can they hold on, but rather will they even be able to work when people start to emerge? I also have friends on the front lines who fear how it is that their hospital is supposed to make enough money to where layoffs are not needed?

 

[True Blue]

I'm not trying to be insulting but whose definition of recession is that?

I am not taking it an insult, but a recession is typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The NBER calls it a negative decline lasting more than a few months.

A recession does not happen over night, as I am sure you know. So to state that the country was in a recession in end of February is simply not accurate.

 

[Leonardo87]

Things are starting to get back to normal, supermarket had both toilet paper and paper towels. Yay!!

 

[True Blue]

I believe I said we were on the verge... maybe I was just looking down the road more than u because I saw it clearly coming as did many others but I guess it’s semantics at this point in time.

That much we agree on. What is happening is beyond awful.

I am going to continue to state that what they praise Cuomo for today, they will curse him for tomorrow.

 

[True Blue]

One other thought about this. I agree with you that there is a lot of ill will towards Trump. I disagree with you that it’s all, or mostly, unwarranted. Most of the ill will originated from the fact that he has broken so many norms. The vetting of key officials is one of the norms he has repeatedly broken. I won’t bother posting the laundry list of other things.

So, basically, you can’t have it both ways. Most of the people that support Trump do so because they like the fact that he breaks norms. “He says what’s on his mind”, etc. I am allowed to be concerned when a norm that I find important is broken. You can’t turn around and claim that norm breaker in chief is actually doing things the normal way to begin with, but everyone is just too deranged to realize it. He’s not. That’s why his supporters like him.

I have never claimed that he was doing things the normal way. And I have not debated what is and what is not warranted. However, I also believe that by and large the media detest him. And if he was to walk on water, they headline would be "He couldn't fly".

He is a narcissistic megalomaniac. But that actually does not make him that much different than Obama. The difference is delivery. And yes, like you said one of the reasons that he got elected is because people say "He talks like we do".

 

[FultonReed]

Things are starting to get back to normal, supermarket had both toilet paper and paper towels. Yay!!

any time the store I'm at gets any of that stuff, or meat, it's gone by the end of the day

 

[True Blue]

I think there's not just going to have to be a restructure of our economy but a new politics is going to have to come out of this. By that I mean politicians are going to start to be held to account and no matter what party they belong to. If you look at those in Washington now--most of them are in their 60's, 70's and 80's which isn't all that representative. Blacks, Hispanics and women are also underrepresented. Graft and corruption are all too common--lobbyist's for industries write legislation as much or more than legislators do. So the more people in the shit the more it's going to turn into an us (as in those in the shit) vs. those types (as in those who are only concerned about maintaining their own bank accounts) and it won't necessarily even have to fall along party lines all the time.

Unless I am misunderstanding you, I think that is very easy to say, but no offense, just a bit pie in the sky. No amount of restructuring is going to fix anything if a third of the population is unemployed. And if you have industries that are wiped away, there is no potential for employment. Retail, planes, they employ a lot of people. Whether you like it or not (not specifically you), people will most certainly travel again.

 

[Leonardo87]

any time the store I'm at gets any of that stuff, or meat, it's gone by the end of the day

I didn’t need TP, so didn’t buy it, but did buy a 8 pack of paper towels which I desperately needed.

I’m willing to bet someone would hoard it just to have it, even if they don’t need it.

that’s the kinda world we are living in right now.

 

[Synergy27]

I have never claimed that he was doing things the normal way.

Yes you did. You directly said that you have every reason to believe that the person in question was fully vetted because that’s how things always/must operate.

Also curious to hear your thoughts on the last couple of days worth of developments. You know, intense light, disinfectant, cancelled press conferences, etc. Just more media unfairness I presume?

 

[Trxjw]

That much we agree on. What is happening is beyond awful.

I am going to continue to state that what they praise Cuomo for today, they will curse him for tomorrow.

I don't think that's a particularly wild stance to take. People always criticize those who made hard decisions after the time to make those decisions is over. Cuomo is saving people from their own ignorance and they'll chide him for it six months from now. People will say we survived in spite of those tough decisions he made, not because of them, and the burden of proof will fall upon the people saying "more people could have died" instead of those making the accusations. It's the way we are as a society.

 

[True Blue]

I’m very curious to see what the world is going to look like as we start to roll back some of these restrictions. I have so many questions that really only time is going to tell.

Whats going to happen to the restaurant industry? What are they going to do to limit their capacity? And whose really going to want to go out to a restaurant or bar right now?

What’s going to happen with offices? Are companies going to just keep people working from home?

What’s going to happen to real estate as businesses close for good, there are empty offices, and city dwellers decide maybe they’d rather flock to the comfort and safety of the suburbs?

Are some of these lost jobs just never coming back? Aside from losing their pay, suddenly people are also losing their health insurance when they’re in a time where they need it the most. Not to get political, but could suddenly UBI and Single Payer Healthcare become more of a reality as we look for solutions?

How will testing people handled going forward? Testing, contact tracing, and isolation are incredibly important towards getting the country up and moving again, and with some people being asymptomatic carriers, will periodic testing possible become a normal going forward?

There are clearly going to be businesses that go under, but in a measured way and over the course of x amount of months, people come back to them. It is learned human behavior vs a virus. At some point and time, social distancing collapses on itself. Not for all, as there will be people who do not come out at all. But more than enough will. On this board, it is very easy to create your own echo chamber. We will need to recognize this for what it is, a disease and not some sort of apocalyptic plague. Just my view.

 

[True Blue]

Yes you did. You directly said that you have every reason to believe that the person in question was fully vetted because that’s how things always/must operate.

Also curious to hear your thoughts on the last couple of days worth of developments. You know, intense light, disinfectant, cancelled press conferences, etc. Just more media unfairness I presume?

Is there any evidence that would point to him not being vetted?

Seems to me that you are trying to draw me into a fight about Trump. Which we can certainly do if you just tell me which aspect of his we should be debating. I mean are you really going to debate with me that by and large the media loathes him can basically never be impartial when it comes to him?

 

[True Blue]

I don't think that's a particularly wild stance to take. People always criticize those who made hard decisions after the time to make those decisions is over. Cuomo is saving people from their own ignorance and they'll chide him for it six months from now. People will say we survived in spite of those tough decisions he made, not because of them, and the burden of proof will fall upon the people saying "more people could have died" instead of those making the accusations. It's the way we are as a society.

The debate is going to come to was this not as deadly as originally believed and was such complete shutdown worth it? I do not know that the answer is. We can just speculate. As more and more people are laid off and have their benefits rolled off, you will see him being burned in effigy more and more.

 

[True Blue]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/cuomo-outlines-rough-plan-for-reopening-new-york-in-phases/

Shocked nobody has posted this yet. Judging by his outline we won't be opening anything up anytime soon, especially in the Westchester/NYC/L.I. areas.





Don't expect anywhere Westchester and below to be anywhere close back to normal before June 15th..at least how I read that. Upstate areas with low population may start getting back to a little normal June 1st as long as there are no flare ups from May 15th-June 1st when they allow minor things like construction to reopen.

Yikes.

If he holds to this, you can expect social distancing to collapse as soon as people take to marching in the streets.

This upcoming weekend will be a good test. It is supposed to be very nice outside. It will also be 7 weeks since the shut down. I am going to believe that you will see many, many people out and about in NYC.