OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part V

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Thank you. With the stigma there is about artists, and comments that have been made towards myself and fellow artists in the past being taken seriously sometimes is a sore subject for me. As hard of a life it can be (and it really is right now) I wouldnt change it for anything. Best of luck writing those novels

If and when you are ready for a cover illustration I know a guy ;)
Thanks! Currently trying to go the traditional pub route (the last thing I want to do is add a third job in marketing) – but you never know where I may be in 6 months to a year. I'll PM you so we can be in touch.
 
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The new date for the first confirmed death is February 6th. Previously it was February 29th. They talk about the first case was January 21st. Was it sooner than that? That case was also west coast, but nowhere near each other, about the difference between NYC and North Carolina.

I have a suspicion that respiratory deaths in January and February are largely from COVID. Yes, the flu kills, but a thorough examination of these types of deaths should be explored, and it needs to happen now.

It can really help with also knowing how many people were potentially infected. Asymptomatic rates could go up, and the death rate could drop. Yes, we'll need antibody testing to truly know, but pieces can be put together to gain a picture on who is already past this.

If this is a thing that will reoccur in the fall, knowing the duration, from beginning to end will help with how it will need to potentially be handled then.

This lends even more credibility to the USC study.
 


The new date for the first confirmed death is February 6th. Previously it was February 29th. They talk about the first case was January 21st. Was it sooner than that? That case was also west coast, but nowhere near each other, about the difference between NYC and North Carolina.

I have a suspicion that respiratory deaths in January and February are largely from COVID. Yes, the flu kills, but a thorough examination of these types of deaths should be explored, and it needs to happen now.

It can really help with also knowing how many people were potentially infected. Asymptomatic rates could go up, and the death rate could drop. Yes, we'll need antibody testing to truly know, but pieces can be put together to gain a picture on who is already past this.

If this is a thing that will reoccur in the fall, knowing the duration, from beginning to end will help with how it will need to potentially be handled then.

COVID-19 killing people earlier than the first official death on 2/29 is probably the least surprising thing ever.

I bet it goes even further back than that.
 


The new date for the first confirmed death is February 6th. Previously it was February 29th. They talk about the first case was January 21st. Was it sooner than that? That case was also west coast, but nowhere near each other, about the difference between NYC and North Carolina.

I have a suspicion that respiratory deaths in January and February are largely from COVID. Yes, the flu kills, but a thorough examination of these types of deaths should be explored, and it needs to happen now.

It can really help with also knowing how many people were potentially infected. Asymptomatic rates could go up, and the death rate could drop. Yes, we'll need antibody testing to truly know, but pieces can be put together to gain a picture on who is already past this.

If this is a thing that will reoccur in the fall, knowing the duration, from beginning to end will help with how it will need to potentially be handled then.


I am not totally sure what to think of this, but it leads credence that this virus was here a lot earlier than we thought it was. I know multiple people that were sicker than they had ever been starting in December and lasting for a few weeks. If that is the case and this virus was running rampant through the country for 4 months before any actions were taken, then the number of people that were infected is exponentially higher than what is being stated and the number of deaths much higher as well. But the latest numbers are showing a death rate of somewhere around 0.66%. That is for known cases and suspected deaths. My personal uneducated opinion is that when this is all said and done, the death rate is going to settle lower than that 0.66%.

Now is destroying the countries economy over a bug that has a less than 0.66% chance of killing an infected individual worth it?

That is the moral question that people can only answer for themselves.
 
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I live in NC and while the case count keeps increasing at a fairly flat rate. The total case count as of 10:30 yesterday was 6951. However, more than 1000 of those are in nursing homes and long term care facilities, and there is also a high amount of cases in correctional facilities. I don't have exact figures, but somewhere around 25% of the cases fall into one of these two types of facilities.

There are currently around 400 patients currently hospitalized in the state. 427 to be exact....

213 Deaths....

While the NY/NY/CT metro area has been slammed with this virus, there are large parts of the country that are minimally affected.
 
I am not totally sure what to think of this, but it leads credence that this virus was here a lot earlier than we thought it was. I know multiple people that were sicker than they had ever been starting in December and lasting for a few weeks. If that is the case and this virus was running rampant through the country for 4 months before any actions were taken, then the number of people that were infected is exponentially higher than what is being stated and the number of deaths much higher as well. But the latest numbers are showing a death rate of somewhere around 0.66%. That is for known cases and suspected deaths. My personal uneducated opinion is that when this is all said and done, the death rate is going to settle lower than that 0.66%.

Now is destroying the countries economy over a bug that has a less than 0.66% chance of killing an infected individual worth it?

That is the moral question that people can only answer for themselves.


So I was sick in that early December period with almost the exact COVID symptoms, i.e. horrible aches, fever, dry cough. And while I was doing pretty poorly, my kids had a little cough and my wife didn’t catch anything all. Why I believe this wasn’t COVID is if I had it, I live in lower Westchester, I’m certain the hospitalizations and death rates would’ve been much higher than too. And they weren’t relative to historic averages for December.
 
I live in NC and while the case count keeps increasing at a fairly flat rate. The total case count as of 10:30 yesterday was 6951. However, more than 1000 of those are in nursing homes and long term care facilities, and there is also a high amount of cases in correctional facilities. I don't have exact figures, but somewhere around 25% of the cases fall into one of these two types of facilities.

There are currently around 400 patients currently hospitalized in the state. 427 to be exact....

213 Deaths....

While the NY/NY/CT metro area has been slammed with this virus, there are large parts of the country that are minimally affected.

It's probably more than 25%, since about another 25% of the confirmed cases don't have setting information.

It's hard to use the data we see over the last several days on NCDHHS when judging what our curve looks like right now. For example, as of 10:30 yesterday, it was 6951... as of 11:00 today, it's 7171. But there are only 40 cases reported from yesterday, meaning that 180 cases were added to previous days. The date is based on when the specimen was collected. They specifically say that the numbers from the last 10 days might not be complete.

When you look at the chart, it looks like it's leveling off, but by this time next week, the last few days might end up looking like the previous few days.
 
Do I think the government needs to open up at some point, and take some mitigated risks to jump start the economy? sure. But I don't see an opportunity for mitigated risks for select businesses and workers at this time, maybe in a month or two. We need to have a reduction in cases before we even talk about opening things up.
I fully understand your point. I just disagree with it. I believe that keeping everything shut down for another two months will cause irrevocable damage. And that damage will continue to be a menace, long after this virus is considered an afterthougth.
But again, people should not be making the choice should I put my health and families health at risk so I can pay rent/pay my mortgage and bills. That choice is a non starter for me, because those less fortunate are going to be the ones that will likely have to go back to work via necessity and thus the highest risk of getting sick. And a society that values its less fortunate as expendable in a crisis like this is not a moral and ethical society to me. Those that are less fortunate have the RIGHT to return to work in a reasonably safe environment where they are not putting their health at risk to earn a meager paycheck so others can go shopping, going to movies, playing golf, going to the gym and engaging in commerce. And if it is not reasonably safe, they should be protected and compensated so we do not lose our homes and lives until it is reasonably safe.
This I love. Absolutely love. Let's cry about corporate greed, but then absolutely turn around and Sh!t on small businesses. What the eff' do you believe small businesses are? They are the retail stores, the movie theaters, the gyms, the bars and restaurants. If they are not open, they go under. And if enough of them go under where do you think their employees are going to find future employment?

This is how the economy works, I am sorry to tell you . People go out to the store or the gym and pay what they need to. In turn, those businesses pay their employees and then they go out and spend the money then want or need.

Oh, and before discussing what a meager paycheck is, perhaps you should check in with the workers at gyms for example to see if they are happy to work there.
Our government needs to have some sort of compensation for people so they can stay home until there is a reduction in cases and allow people to make hard choices for themselves about going back to work without feeling they have to to pay their bills.
They do. It is called unemployment. And the SBA loans. And the checks that people received. But you cannot just continue to print money. The government runs on tax revenue. The greater the unemployed and the more small businesses that go under, the less tax revenue exists. That is pretty fundamental. It short circuits. The more they have to pay out, the less they have to continue to pay out over time. Then the benefit well runs dry.
you repeatedly talk about how we cannot do X,Y,Z. But other countries are doing those exact things, why are we incapable of doing what Italy has done and suspend mortgage payments? Why can't we give people 2K a month like Canada is doing for its citizens? Why cant we test like South Korea? Why is every major industrial country testing better and providing for its citizens better than ours? Id love to hear your answer for this, because for me, our government and many people living in it do not have the level of empathy and care required to support and care for those less fortunate.
I am not saying that they cannot do this. I am saying that there is only so much time that they can do it for.

You can suspend mortgage and rent payments. But only for so long and will need to compensate the lenders and the renters. Otherwise, they go unemployed. Unless of course you believe that only the wealthy rent houses? Of that banks do not employ legions of employees that work in their mortgage divisions?

A government cannot simply prevent a business from charging rent for long. That becomes an infringement on their right to make a living. Unless of course the government wants to take equity in the businesses. Look how well that has worked out in China and Russia. To say nothing of what becomes of that revenue that is now non-taxable.

And I disagree on the "empathy" part. Sounds like you believe I have none. Which is an utter crock of despicable crap.
We have the largest economy in the world, the global economy basically runs on the US dollar. I never said it will not cost a lot, but the idea that every other nation has figured out a way to help its citizens better than ours and your only answer is "it cannot be done" If America is so great, why can't it even take care of its own people?
What are you talking about? You have not seen the economical effects that is has on every nation. In fact you have seen exactly NONE. So I have no idea of how you can even begin to make that statement.

America can take care of its one people. But at some point the rubber hits the road. Once you have created a new class of citizens that are permanently unemployed, well I am not sure you really want to see what society is like at that point.
 
Trump is basically forced to bail out the energy and oil industry. If he didn't, states that rely on that industry would be decimated and he would for sure lose votes for November
 
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The new date for the first confirmed death is February 6th. Previously it was February 29th. They talk about the first case was January 21st. Was it sooner than that? That case was also west coast, but nowhere near each other, about the difference between NYC and North Carolina.

I have a suspicion that respiratory deaths in January and February are largely from COVID. Yes, the flu kills, but a thorough examination of these types of deaths should be explored, and it needs to happen now.
I ma betting that in one form or another, or one strain or another, people were getting it as early as December. The doctors just simply categorized it as the flu then.

It also could mean, and I am certainly not a doctor nor do I play one on tv, that more people are walking around with antibodies than people think.
 
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Trump is basically forced to bail out the energy and oil industry. If he didn't, states that rely on that industry would be decimated and he would for sure lose votes for November
While both statements may well be true, the former is much more important than the latter.
 
I think he has to. If the energy companies go down, you will have places like Odessa, Texas that will have a 50% unemployment rate. That's when towns shut down and go away.

Everything is so connected. Someone pump up the oil and someone pump it into a car and burns it.

In between you have so many steps including large parts of the financial sector trading in certificates, lending money to these companies and what not. I am as much a environmental as anyone else, but you can’t let the oil sector fail.
 
While both statements may well be true, the former is much more important than the latter.
From all the evidence we've seen from this administration so far, he cares more about the latter than the former, and more than enough people in his cabinet/staff would go along with it.
 
From all the evidence we've seen from this administration so far, he cares more about the latter than the former, and more than enough people in his cabinet/staff would go along with it.
That is not the point that I was making. I was looking at things from a macro standpoint. The fact that he is going to bail out those states by bailing out the oil industry is a very good thing for the people who live there and for the country as a whole.

Want to talk about his motives being selfish? Sure, we can do that. But that does not change the fact that the former (bailing them out) is a good and very much necessary thing.
 
Everything is so connected. Someone pump up the oil and someone pump it into a car and burns it.

In between you have so many steps including large parts of the financial sector trading in certificates, lending money to these companies and what not. I am as much a environmental as anyone else, but you can’t let the oil sector fail.
The economy of the US is basically a pyramid. It is built on people going out and spending money in various ways. And when you look through to the nth user, everything is connected.
 
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This is why that report is huge.

We're going to find out now when it was here, or as close as we can.

I agree with a previous poster that there are many more people in this country that have antibodies than we can even think. Our timeline is probably so out of whack that some parts of the country opening up may not be as harmful as some are predicting because they already had it.
 
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Let me just say that if there are bail outs of another major group of companies with the American tax payer footing the bill I may lose it. The govt spending is out of control to begin with. It’s time for these HUGE companies to take some responsibility for themselves and not over leverage themselves.
 
Let me just say that if there are bail outs of another major group of companies with the American tax payer footing the bill I may lose it. The govt spending is out of control to begin with. It’s time for these HUGE companies to take some responsibility for themselves and not over leverage themselves.
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