OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV - II

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"Something just seems different this year, I can't quite put my finger on it"
- Gary

for those who live by the media we should send out a message that the NHL has already ordered rollerblades so teams can finish the season at local mall parking lots. Computer animation will set the backdrop of asphalt to look like ice. More to come

People would believe it lol
 
Am I the only one who couldn't care less how other countries handled this? There could've been a poor response from every other nation in the world. It wouldn't change the fact that our country handled it poorly as well.

I care because it shows what could have been possible or what couldn't have.

And as other countries start their re-opening attempts we better be focused on what works and what doesn't so we can apply those lessons here.
 
The bolded seems to overlook the fact that multiple federal agencies got briefed on this in late 2019, were to told to take action, and they chose not to. Plus the added fact of the current administration dismantled the pandemic task force and disregarded the guidelines that were drawn up for them from the previous regime.

Saying no one could have been more prepared seems disingenuous to me. The reality is our country was brazen in their disregard for this issue, until people got their shit together and realized "oh wait maybe this is going to be a problem"
No one was prepared for this type of issue. And again, the point about Trump is that pointing the finger and saying he should done more earlier is all well and good, but the point is that no other politician in this country was going to do any different. If all of these agencies were screaming to get ready, why did both parties treat this as some sort of pay not that much of a mind to it? Seems to me that someone, ANYONE should have been shouting from the roof tops. And yet no one was
 
As unfortunate as it is, it's the right move. This season should be treated similar to a lockout year, with the added benefit of playing 90% of the regular season, as opposed to zero

The league needs to work towards coming up with a plan so next season can start unhindered. Whether that be playing with no fans, or something else, I don't know
I think that both the NBA & NHL have played their last games for the season. Baseball will play some wort of an altered schedule. And the NFL will play a full season.

I am not sure for how long the leagues can play with no fans. At some point, that just cuts into the owners wallets too much. A large part of the bottom line is playing to the fans live.

In general, I think that shortly after after everything is opened up, social distancing is bound to collapse. A bar makes their money by having as many people as possible inside buying drinks. If you suddenly tell a bar that they need to run with only 10 people inside, that bar does not open. Same goes for a restaurant. If a restaurant makes its living by having 40 tables, it cannot survive by only operating on 10. Same will be said for gyms. Same for professional sports leagues. Without people going to see the games, the interest in running such a league is going to wane quickly. Do it for an extended period of time and that league folds. Heck, same goes for every single summer camp for kids in America and every single day care facility.

People are going to scream about it, but once things get moving, the social distancing is bound to collapse. That said, there will be people that will never come out of their house again. And there will be those that will only come out in 2021 when there is a vaccine.
 
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Seems to me that someone, ANYONE should have been shouting from the roof tops. And yet no one was
The World Health Organization was also negligent in how long it took to declare a pandemic, and I believe they are still saying people don't need masks when if we had all started wearing masks in January we could have saved thousands of lives, WHO probably has done more damage than any one country's management
 
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Coronavirus has 'reactivated' in more than 100 South Koreans who recovered

Making the rounds today

Define “reactivated”.

Had mentioned this days ago. People i know of who tested positive, then had symptoms(some severe), then symptoms subsided went for another test. Without symptoms they tested positive again.

So are they contagious again or are some of these patients finding their symptoms return? What is reactivated?
 
The World Health Organization was also negligent in how long it took to declare a pandemic, and I believe they are still saying people don't need masks when if we had all started wearing masks in January we could have saved thousands of lives, WHO probably has done more damage than any one country's management

The source which is supposed to be so reliable couldn’t get their arms around this either.

The more we learn the more we realize how far behind this virus we are. Based on a 3D model it appears the virus bypasses out defenses by using sugars on the spikes. Afterwards it appeared as if the virus isn’t too complex. Let’s hope so b/c each passing week we appear to more and more vulnerable.
 
No one was prepared for this type of issue. And again, the point about Trump is that pointing the finger and saying he should done more earlier is all well and good, but the point is that no other politician in this country was going to do any different. If all of these agencies were screaming to get ready, why did both parties treat this as some sort of pay not that much of a mind to it? Seems to me that someone, ANYONE should have been shouting from the roof tops. And yet no one was
You can continue to say no one was prepared for this type of issue, but it doesn't mean it should be ignored that actions could have been taken to be more prepared. Isn't the point of having a pandemic task force to be prepared?

And on the bolded, yeah this clearly speaks to a problem within the organizational infrastructure of the country. When federal agencies get briefed multiple times about a potential pandemic months beforehand, to start taking action to prevent catastrophic outcomes, and the response from them appeared to be shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll be okay, we're America", it's an issue.
 
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The World Health Organization was also negligent in how long it took to declare a pandemic, and I believe they are still saying people don't need masks when if we had all started wearing masks in January we could have saved thousands of lives, WHO probably has done more damage than any one country's management

This really all goes back to the CCP. They tried to hide this before it got too big. They tried to sensor the people who first brought the info about the virus to light. They could have put a quarantine on Wuhan sooner before it got it. They were the ones that ignored it at first. Then they lied about their numbers significantly.

Why has the our response and frankly all around the world been poor, it’s because the CCP lied about the situation and the numbers which affected the planning and models of the scientists. Dr. Birx said as much herself. And the WHO has been in their pocket and covering for the CCP the whole time. Not recommending masks, saying no evidence of human to human transmission middle of January, not announcing it as a pandemic until March 11.

If the CCP had been upfront about this from the start, all other countries would have had better reactions to this problem.
 
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You can continue to say no one was prepared for this type of issue, but it doesn't mean it should be ignored that actions could have been taken to be more prepared. Isn't the point of having a pandemic task force to be prepared?

And on the bolded, yeah this clearly speaks to a problem within the organizational infrastructure of the country. When federal agencies get briefed multiple times about a potential pandemic months beforehand, to start taking action to prevent catastrophic outcomes, and the response from them appeared to be shrugging their shoulders and saying "we'll be okay, we're America", it's an issue.
I do not disagree. But for one reason or another, every leader of all political parties seemed to be content to doing what you are saying. Shrugging their shoulders and saying "we will be ok". That goes for Republicans, Democrats, Presidents ,Mayors and Governors.
 
You are saying that Trump should have more prepared. And I am telling you that NO ONE would have been more prepared. So I am not sure where you are going. You may not have experts but surely you have a radio or a television or some sort of portable device that allows for outside interaction? If yes, then you would have seen the so-called experts in February assuring that this was not going to be a big deal.
Yet somehow you knew back then it was going to be a full-fledged pandemic. You're saying, at the same time, is that no one could have known and that everyone should have known. Which is it?

You are going to tell me that in you really never seen any footage from Wuhan? I am not any social media whatsoever, but when my office was full there were multiple videos and pictures from China. People would show stuff on their computer all the time. Now if you are saying that despite all of that, one would listen to what virtually everyone of import in this country was saying then you just underscore my point that there was no one that was going to be in charge that would have done any more.
Did I see footage of Wuhan back in December (besides maybe a picture of someone in a mask)? No. You keep telling me of all these pictures from back then that should have made it obvious a pandemic was coming (but clearly no one could have prepared for so doing nothing for 3 months didn't matter) so why despite several posts asking, I still don't see you post any pics from December? You make a claim so I expect you to back it up.

As for timelines, you really have never seen Cuomo in March say that NY is ahead of this?
March 4 is when he quarantined Westchester. March 6: ""I'm not urging calm. I'm urging reality. I'm urging a factual response as opposed to an emotional response." NY declared a state of emergency March 7. Could Cuomo have acted earlier? Sure. Everyone could have. No one is coming out of this smelling great. The issue is that the higher up the food chain you go, mistakes have bigger consequences.
 
One way a different President would've acted differently? He wouldn't have had contradictory action. For example, one of the things that led to increase approval rating for Trump relatively early on in this crisis was his invocation of the Defense Production Act, which I approved of. But after he invoked it, he dithered in actually doing anything with it.
This is what the Wikipedia article on DPA says for Covid-19 and highlights some of the government's failings. Trump had previously invoked the DPA so it's not like there was some idealogical barrier. Would invoking it 2 weeks earlier have made a difference? Who can say but it just seems clear to me that there was a lot of indecision.

On March 18, 2020, in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, President Trump issued an executive order that defined ventilators and protective equipment as "essential to the national defense", the standard required by the DPA. Later that day, he indicated that he would not make immediate use of DPA authority, writing, "Hopefully there will be no need"; he indicated that he would do so in a "worst-case scenario". Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called upon Trump to "immediately use the powers of the DPA" to produce and distribute critically needed hospital equipment. On March 20, Trump said that he will use the DPA. The next day General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra spoke to Trump administration officials about how GM could support production of ventilators without the use of DPA.

On March 23, Trump issued an executive order classifying "health and medical resources necessary to respond to the spread of COVID-19" as subject to the authority granted by DPA to prohibit hoarding and price gouging.
Trump's initial reluctance to use the act's authorities prompted criticism. On March 27, 2020, after negotiations with GM had broken down over costs, estimated at over $1 billion, but primarily due to GM’s inability to commit delivering the number of ventilators required speedily, Trump ordered HHS Secretary Alex Azar to use the DPA to require GM to accept and prioritize contracts for as many ventilators as Azar determines to be appropriate. Trump also named Peter Navarro national policy coordinator for the DPA.

On April 2, Trump said he was invoking the DPA to require 3M, General Electric, and Medtronic to increase its production of protective masks (N-95 respirators)
 
This is what the Wikipedia article on DPA says for Covid-19 and highlights some of the government's failings. Trump had previously invoked the DPA so it's not like there was some idealogical barrier. Would invoking it 2 weeks earlier have made a difference? Who can say but it just seems clear to me that there was a lot of indecision.

On March 18, 2020, in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, President Trump issued an executive order that defined ventilators and protective equipment as "essential to the national defense", the standard required by the DPA. Later that day, he indicated that he would not make immediate use of DPA authority, writing, "Hopefully there will be no need"; he indicated that he would do so in a "worst-case scenario". Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called upon Trump to "immediately use the powers of the DPA" to produce and distribute critically needed hospital equipment. On March 20, Trump said that he will use the DPA. The next day General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra spoke to Trump administration officials about how GM could support production of ventilators without the use of DPA.

On March 23, Trump issued an executive order classifying "health and medical resources necessary to respond to the spread of COVID-19" as subject to the authority granted by DPA to prohibit hoarding and price gouging.
Trump's initial reluctance to use the act's authorities prompted criticism. On March 27, 2020, after negotiations with GM had broken down over costs, estimated at over $1 billion, but primarily due to GM’s inability to commit delivering the number of ventilators required speedily, Trump ordered HHS Secretary Alex Azar to use the DPA to require GM to accept and prioritize contracts for as many ventilators as Azar determines to be appropriate. Trump also named Peter Navarro national policy coordinator for the DPA.

On April 2, Trump said he was invoking the DPA to require 3M, General Electric, and Medtronic to increase its production of protective masks (N-95 respirators)

Yes, a couple of weeks would have made a difference.

I don’t get why people diminish the timeline here. Any delays equal out to X number of additional lives lost depending on the timing of the delay. So even if it’s a “short” amount of time like a couple of weeks, when X>0, that’s unacceptable.
 
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Cancelling the rest of the season is the correct move. There is no shame in not awarding the Cup this season.

Yeah, but if there is — any — possibility to start up the season it’s the NHL’s and the players’ absolute responsibility to do so, even if it comes at considerable risk.

Our economy cannot be shut down for a really long time. 6 months? Really questionable. Everyone must pull ones straw to the stack. It would set a really bad example if the NHL passed on an opportunity to get going again.

The estimate is that the 07-08 financial crisis cost 500k cancer lives (Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study). This recession could be 10x as deep if we don’t get going soon.

Lately I’ve been hearing more and more “guilt” undertones in relation to starting up the economy as it was about ‘greed’. That is insane, a deep recession will hit all of us and without any doubt the poorest in the society the hardest.
 
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To be honest, even if Trump’s approach at first IMHO deserves a lot of critique, I think the biggest mistake right now in US politics is made by the Democrats who are opposing any kind of easement of the restrictions and calling for even stricter measures.

Dr Fauci shot from the hip and didn’t listen to scientific proof when he shut down ALL of society. Two wrongs don’t make one right. It’s idiotic to keep schools closed, shut down business more than necessary and so forth.

(1) By far the most important thing is to get sick people to stay at home. Others can pass it on too, but not even remotely to the extent of someone with a severe infection thinking about popping some aspirins and going to work.

(2) Protect the elders. Protect the elders. Protect the elders. Everyone can get really sick, but the stats speaks it’s clear language. It’s the elder elders that account for a vast majority of the deaths. Keep this thing out of homes for elders and 90% of the battle is won. A lot more focus should be put on that — all over the globe.

3. People must avoid crowded places. You can’t have 150 people in a subway cart. Force everyone — that can — to work from home. Close crowded bars and what not. Force half the working population to stay at home every other day. Born on an even date (2/4/6/8 and so forth) you can go to work even dates, and the same for the other half born on uneven dates. Whatever.

But forcing people to stay at home, that is just dumb. It will cost a lot more than the gains are. The health effects must be enormous. Unemployment resulting in no medical insurance and shortage of resources in the society. It’s madness x10.
 
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Last night I heard what could be the perfect phrase to describe coronavirus.

It is the malware that is attacking the source code of humanity and we don't have the defense for it.
 

Nice find and a scary loaded message.


“Figure 1, Figure S4). Under all scenarios, there was a resurgence of infection when the simulated social distancing measures were lifted. However, longer and more stringent social distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size. In the case of a 20-week period of social distancing with 60% reduction in R0, for example, the resurgence peak size is nearly the same as the peak size of the uncontrolled epidemic: the social distancing is so effective that virtually no population immunity is built. The greatest reductions in peak size come from social distancing intensity and duration that divide cases approximately equally between peaks (12).”

They had better be right if we open this up b/c we’re learning those who have gone from symptoms to symptom free are again testing positive. Can they spread this virus if they test positive again?

Regardless, based on so much good info, i’m thinking the strategy is opening the country b/c both the recent distancing and weather gives us the most favorable (not perfect) conditions before we increase the risk (maybe likelihood) of an Autumn/winter bomb.

Make your money now before we shut it down again. One wave of social distancing is not enough and apparently neither is a prolonged one. Based on this paper were headed towards more.

Treatments, if they work can only help while a vaccine is best.
 
Last night I heard what could be the perfect phrase to describe coronavirus.

It is the malware that is attacking the source code of humanity and we don't have the defense for it.
Well, the funny thing is that IT has essentially committed cultural appropriation of microbiology in terms of virus and infection such that viruses are more commonly associated with computers instead of DNA/RNA. So people now seeing what is going on with the contagion are saying, hey wait a minute, this is like a computer virus.. oh wait - duh!!!
 
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