Connor McDavid will go down as the 2nd best player of all-time

[authentic]

How many points do you think Gretzky would put up in todays league? I have a hard time believing there would be too many players putting up more points, if any.

I honestly am not so sure Gretzky would outscore McDavid in todays NHL. His style and skillset were a perfect fit for the era he played in really, similar to McDavid today.

 

[Son Goku]

Hopefully this hasn't already been posted upthread -- apologies if it has.

This excellent thread contains data on VsX, a system developed on the History board to compare players across different scoring environments. In brief, instead of "adjusting" stats, we look at how far a player outran his competition. This is, by all indications, the best tool available for conversations like the one we're having right now.

Last season was Connor McDavid's 7th in the NHL. This post contains VsX data through 7th seasons, which is a perfect data set for comparing McDavid to the rest of history not including what he has done this season.

Wayne Gretzky	145.0
Connor McDavid	104.5
Phil Esposito	103.3
Howie Morenz	102.2
Gordie Howe	98.0
Mario Lemieux	97.0
Jean Beliveau	96.1
Bill Cook	94.9
Charlie Conacher	93.6
Bobby Orr	93.4
Mike Bossy	92.9
Andy Bathgate	91.6
Alex Ovechkin	91.3
Sweeney Schriner	90.4
Bryan Trottier	89.7
Sidney Crosby	89.7

That speaks for itself. McDavid's number will actually get better in his 8th season because he will finish with a ludicrously large lead over the rest of the field.

Of course there are other factors such as defensive play and playoff performance. But as a regular season scorer, yes he is the 2nd best of all time through this point in his career.

I question any metric that puts Howie morenz and Phil Esposito above Mario f***ing Lemieux

I honestly am not so sure Gretzky would outscore McDavid in todays NHL. His style and skillset were a perfect fit for the era he played in really, similar to McDavid today.

How so? Gretzky would be perfect in this soft all skill era.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Hopefully this hasn't already been posted upthread -- apologies if it has.

This excellent thread contains data on VsX, a system developed on the History board to compare players across different scoring environments. In brief, instead of "adjusting" stats, we look at how far a player outran his competition. This is, by all indications, the best tool available for conversations like the one we're having right now.

Last season was Connor McDavid's 7th in the NHL. This post contains VsX data through 7th seasons, which is a perfect data set for comparing McDavid to the rest of history not including what he has done this season.

Wayne Gretzky	145.0
Connor McDavid	104.5
Phil Esposito	103.3
Howie Morenz	102.2
Gordie Howe	98.0
Mario Lemieux	97.0
Jean Beliveau	96.1
Bill Cook	94.9
Charlie Conacher	93.6
Bobby Orr	93.4
Mike Bossy	92.9
Andy Bathgate	91.6
Alex Ovechkin	91.3
Sweeney Schriner	90.4
Bryan Trottier	89.7
Sidney Crosby	89.7

That speaks for itself. McDavid's number will actually get better in his 8th season because he will finish with a ludicrously large lead over the rest of the field.

Of course there are other factors such as defensive play and playoff performance. But as a regular season scorer, yes he is the 2nd best of all time through this point in his career.

Assuming the 2022-23 season ends today, here's how McDavid would rank based on first eight seasons:

Rank	Player	Result
1​	Wayne Gretzky	148.0
2​	Connor McDavid	107.5
3​	Gordie Howe	102.3
4​	Mario Lemieux	99.0
5​	Bobby Orr	98.5
6​	Howie Morenz	95.6
7​	Guy Lafleur	92.3
8​	Alex Ovechkin	92.2
9​	Mike Bossy	92.1
10​	Phil Esposito	91.2
11​	Bill Cook	90.6
12​	Marcel Dionne	90.3
13​	Frank Boucher	90.0
14​	Bryan Trottier	87.5
15​	Sweeney Schriner	87.5
16​	Peter Stastny	86.3
17​	Nels Stewart	85.1
18​	Jaromir Jagr	84.8
19​	Teemu Selanne	84.7
20​	Bobby Clarke	84.4

There are a few "false starts". Jean Beliveau would be around 97 if not for his two- and three-game "seasons" before becoming a regular. Stan Mikita would be around 92 if not for his three games in 1959. Phil Esposito would be in 3rd place (around 106) if not for his 27 games in 1964. There might be other "false starts" that skew the numbers in the table, but these were the three that jumped out.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I question any metric that puts Howie morenz and Phil Esposito above Mario f***ing Lemieux


How so? Gretzky would be perfect in this soft all skill era.

My thoughts exactly.


Gretzky with no redline? He would create 7 breakaways per game.
Then give him 2 linemates with those bendy sticks that whips pucks at 100mph.

He'd be an absolute Lock for 120-140 Assists per season.

 

[Nico13]

Totally agree.

Hischier is untouchable in the first position.

 

[Baberham Lincoln]

McDavid is better than Howe in his prime. Howe gets legendary status because he was a hero for English Canada besting Richard at every turn pre 1967. But Connor is still 3rd or 4th best forward all time behind Gretzky and Lemieux as the best forwards in the game.

 

[Toene]

McDavid is better than Howe in his prime. Howe gets legendary status because he was a hero for English Canada besting Richard at every turn pre 1967. But Connor is still 3rd or 4th best forward all time behind Gretzky and Lemieux as the best forwards in the game.

1955-56?

 

[wetcoast]

2nd of all time and with no cups?

This is what will keep him out for some people now to it be the right way or fair that's another matter.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I question any metric that puts Howie morenz and Phil Esposito above Mario f***ing Lemieux


How so? Gretzky would be perfect in this soft all skill era.

There’s nothing wrong with the metric, numbers don’t lie.

But there’s also information beyond the numbers. Morenz played in a smaller “pond” so to speak, a competitive environment but nothing close to the 1980s-present NHL*. Esposito also played in a watered down era, and on an extremely stacked team which wrecked the scoring curve**. Obviously we shouldn’t just take those numbers at face value, we should apply all of our knowledge to put the numbers into context.

But what’s the reason for Lemieux being so far behind McDavid? Does McDavid play in a higher scoring era compared to the 1980s? Is the talent in 2023 watered down compared to the 1980s? Is he on a stacked team that inflates his numbers? Did Lemieux play a gritty defensive game that cost him some scoring? What reason would there be not to take their relative numbers at face value?


* and in his defense, it’s not his fault if today’s fans don’t know anything about his era, don’t realize how much he lapped the competition in his prime.

** and in his defense, he was also a Lemieux-level scoring stud who once put up 76 goals… when his nearest non-teammate scored 44.

Assuming the 2022-23 season ends today, here's how McDavid would rank based on first eight seasons:

Rank	Player	Result
1​	Wayne Gretzky	148.0
2​	Connor McDavid	107.5
3​	Gordie Howe	102.3
4​	Mario Lemieux	99.0
5​	Bobby Orr	98.5
6​	Howie Morenz	95.6
7​	Guy Lafleur	92.3
8​	Alex Ovechkin	92.2
9​	Mike Bossy	92.1
10​	Phil Esposito	91.2
11​	Bill Cook	90.6
12​	Marcel Dionne	90.3
13​	Frank Boucher	90.0
14​	Bryan Trottier	87.5
15​	Sweeney Schriner	87.5
16​	Peter Stastny	86.3
17​	Nels Stewart	85.1
18​	Jaromir Jagr	84.8
19​	Teemu Selanne	84.7
20​	Bobby Clarke	84.4

There are a few "false starts". Jean Beliveau would be around 97 if not for his two- and three-game "seasons" before becoming a regular. Stan Mikita would be around 92 if not for his three games in 1959. Phil Esposito would be in 3rd place (around 106) if not for his 27 games in 1964. There might be other "false starts" that skew the numbers in the table, but these were the three that jumped out.

Thanks for this, I wasn’t sure how to do the math. It’s damned impressive what McDavid has done… 5 points is no small gap.

 

[JaegerDice]

Let’s just hope he doesn’t take the crown as best player to never win a cup.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I question any metric that puts Howie morenz and Phil Esposito above Mario f***ing Lemieux


How so? Gretzky would be perfect in this soft all skill era.

The reason Lemieux doesn't look as good as expected with VsX is 100% due to games missed.

The first table was for first seven seasons. He missed 7 games as a rookie, 17 games in his third year, 21 games in his sixth year, and 54 games in the seventh year. That's a lot of missed time. VsX is punitive to players who are injured. I don't think it's a flaw with the metric, it just reflects the reality that Lemieux didn't accomplish what otherwise might have, due to constant injuries.

 

[authentic]

I question any metric that puts Howie morenz and Phil Esposito above Mario f***ing Lemieux


How so? Gretzky would be perfect in this soft all skill era.

How would that make any difference? Dude went largely untouched most of his career.

His style was a perfect fit for that era because he was a master at slowing the game down and using all the time and space to his advantage. His hockey sense worked perfectly in that setting and allowed him to really dominate.

McDavid today is a master at creating time and space by simply outskating and outskilling everyone in a far faster and more skilled game.

Not saying he wouldn't be great today or even possibly the best but it's not a given he would be slaughtering McDavid in the scoring race like some believe and I'd even say that would've been extremely unlikely even if he grew up with all of todays advantages.

 

[wetcoast]

McDavid is better than Howe in his prime. Howe gets legendary status because he was a hero for English Canada besting Richard at every turn pre 1967. But Connor is still 3rd or 4th best forward all time behind Gretzky and Lemieux as the best forwards in the game.

I'm in my mid 50s and have never heard this before.

To me Howe's status gets elevated by 20 straight years being a top 5 scorer and this seems to be the prevailing baseline and foundation for Howe among the casual fan and more serious ones alike.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Orr and Howe

Orr? really? but people still argue he's 1st over Gretzky. I don't think McDavid will ever be ranked 2nd overall. dont think he will ever deserve it

 

[Dingo]

Can we just give people credit where credit is due? With respect to some overlapping:

Howe was the best in his generation.
Orr was the best in his generation. Gretzky was the best in his generation. Lemieux was the at or near the best in his generation.
Crosby and Ovechkin are the best in their generation.
McDavid is the best in his generation.

You cannot fault or hold it against a player for doing nothing short of dominating play during the time they played, regardless of what the league structure was at that time.

we are comparing the entirety of the interplay in a given league, with all the different rules and all the players, coaching, equipment changes, etc as though it were static, which you can actually do in some sports like Olympic weightlifting for example.

Its impossible and absolutely guarantees personal bias.

So yes, your take is the best - if someone was clearly the best in their era, then that’s that, 10/10 A+.

 

[CN8]

A lot of takes running down the slow hockey in the earlier eras need to remember in 50 years they’ll say the same about McDavid and this era. That’s why relative to peers is about the only way to know

 

[Habs10025]

Nope.

 

[zar]

If he doesn’t have an extraordinary drop off, I project it will look something like this when McDavid hangs them up…

Gretzky

Lemieux

Orr
McDavid

Howe

Crosby
Ovechkin
Hasek
Lidstrom
Hull
Jagr
Harvey

Bourque
Messier
Esposito
Lafleur
Dryden
Roy

Malkin
Sakic
Yzerman
Brodeur
Draisaitl
Forsberg
Lindros
Clarke
Richard
Beliveau
Plante
Coffey

That’s my top 30.

 

[ViD]

Players that rely on their speed and skating generally don’t have longevity to be on their peak for many years

 

[Baberham Lincoln]

I'm in my mid 50s and have never heard this before.

To me Howe's status gets elevated by 20 straight years being a top 5 scorer and this seems to be the prevailing baseline and foundation for Howe among the casual fan and more serious ones alike.

You’ve never heard of the rivalry between Howe and Richard? Not saying they personally hated each other but the media was pumping it up like Crosby and Ovie. They like faced each other 4 years in a row in the Finals. Always neck and neck for the Art Ross.

People in Montreal riotted because Richard got suspended and they said it was so Howe could win the Art Ross.

 

[Neutrinos]

Can we just give people credit where credit is due? With respect to some overlapping:

Howe was the best in his generation.
Orr was the best in his generation. Gretzky was the best in his generation. Lemieux was the at or near the best in his generation.
Crosby and Ovechkin are the best in their generation.
McDavid is the best in his generation.

You cannot fault or hold it against a player for doing nothing short of dominating play during the time they played, regardless of what the league structure was at that time.

Ovechkin wasn't on Crosby's level, and isn't a generational player

 

[authentic]

In his mid to late 30's he easily outscored peak Sakic, Forsberg, Yzerman, Selanne and Bure in the 90s.


When he was 36 he outscored guys who took their games into the Crosby era... like Joe Sakic, Jarome Iginla, and Teemu Selanne.


(You know guys that also finished top-10 in scoring in the Crosby/Ovechkin era).



Gretzky >>>>>> Sakic, Forsberg, Selanne.


You know.. guys that also finished top-10 scoring in this era. Gretzky was a universe better than.



Remember Joe Sakic??

View attachment 658252

Look who dunked 163 points on a 100-point Joe Sakic.
And look who dunked 120 points on an old and hobbled in a rocking chair Joe-Sakic.

View attachment 658253



BTW

Gretzky used a wooden stick to beat Hasek when he was in his late 30's. exactly like he beat those 80's goalies (You know.. guys like Patrick Roy).



Was Hasek one of those easy to score on "standing goalies"?

The bolded is just straight up false. In his mid to late 30s he did no such thing.

The season you're quoting in 1990-91 he was 29/30 years old

 

[authentic]

A lot of takes running down the slow hockey in the earlier eras need to remember in 50 years they’ll say the same about McDavid and this era. That’s why relative to peers is about the only way to know

You really think one day they'll look back at McDavid and call him slow? I seriously doubt that lol

The NHL used to be a much slower paced game with long shifts and heavy equipment. The fastest skaters from the 80s are basically as fast as now, look at Mike Gartner's record at the skills competition when he was 36 that held until a few years ago and was only broken by a running start. The game evolved massively between 1980 and 1995 and sure it will still improve but I don't think anyone is looking back at McDavid in 2070 and calling him a slower player, although there will be many more McDavid's and probably a few who are even better and slightly faster.

 

[toddkaz]

Until he wins a cup he is the Dan Marino of Hockey.

 

[Son Goku]

How would that make any difference? Dude went largely untouched most of his career.

His style was a perfect fit for that era because he was a master at slowing the game down and using all the time and space to his advantage. His hockey sense worked perfectly in that setting and allowed him to really dominate.

McDavid today is a master at creating time and space by simply outskating and outskilling everyone in a far faster and more skilled game.

Not saying he wouldn't be great today or even possibly the best but it's not a given he would be slaughtering McDavid in the scoring race like some believe and I'd even say that would've been extremely unlikely even if he grew up with all of todays advantages.

What "you" think and what actually happened are two different things. All I know is Gretzky destroyed anything Mcdavid has done and it's not even close. It's a given he would be better because we knew he was unobjectively better than his contemporaries to a higher degree than Mcdavid. I don't care how much "skill" he has as far as speed and stick handling. It doesn't mean jack shit if he's less effective than Gretzky in comparison.