Comparables for Matthews and Nylander

[Menzinger]

With Nylander there are plenty of offensive orientated 1st line wingers to get as a comparison. Hell likely end up getting around what Flip Forsberg got adjusted for cap inflation (meaning he'll have a slightly higher aav). Will be worth every penny.

Matthews is a bit harder given that goal scoring centres are very rare. He'll likely edge out Mac as having the leagues highest aav by a bit (but likely less than what many presume. The biggest question with him is projecting the term

 

[nuck]

Nylander I agree will probably be the one to go but he will be worth his contract. Unless someone overpays him as a UFA.

If he is making 8- 8.5 he will easily live up to that.

Matthews I would imagine goes slightly ahead of Mack regardless of playoff success. Whether that is fair or not is up for debate, but he is still a premiere scorer and will help any team reach the playoffs.

Since all teams budgets are based on the regular season and playoff revenue is just bonus money, teams don't view it as black and white as fans do

Nylander was asking for $8M last time around so he won't be signing for $8.5 this time now that he is an actual UFA. Kucherov, Kaprizov, Tkachuk and Gaudreau are the next tier up but he will be looking for their money at least. IMO he will be very tough to bring in at $9.5M and I don't think he is worth that to a club with two better forwards. Without JT and Reilly on the books it might be different but they have what they have and paying top of the market is for clubs that only have a single marquee player or a truckload of cap space. A monster playoff might force the club to submit though and it could still be a win-win.

Matthews IDK as I am not sure what voodoo his agent used to get McDavid money on a short deal last time around. He signed a new deal February 2019 while working on the below 20yo season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2018-19[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

What about that made the club think they were getting a better than Crosby or Ovy player? I can only think crazy expected cap growth made them susceptible to the agent's logic.. AM earned his money 1 year out of 4 and has not been the difference maker they needed in the playoffs, at least so far, unlike Mackinnon who was grossly underpaid for the last 5 years and has been a beast in the playoffs. In some kind of an obscure skill contest based comparison AM is a bit better because of the snipe but its hard to justify more than Mack for Matthews actual body of work.

Having said all that I don't think the guy will necessarily be shooting for $14M. I think he can be an MVP again so whatever deal he cuts he will earn, at least a couple of times during the term and he will definitely be resigned. But the issue, as always, is that the player's side will push that the injuries were bad luck and he needs to be paid as an 80 game guy.

 

[IPS]

Kucherov, Kaprizov, Tkachuk and Gaudreau are the next tier up but he will be looking for their money at least

How the hell do people still believe this nonsense

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews IDK as I am not sure what voodoo his agent used to get McDavid money on a short deal last time around. He signed a new deal February 2019 while working on the below 20yo season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2018-19[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's a bit misleading, as he was on a 50 goal, 100 point pace when he signed, and overall had one of the best pre-signing periods in the entire cap era.

What about that made the club think they were getting a better than Crosby or Ovy player?

Matthews got less than Crosby and Ovechkin, for the record. A significant amount less.

In some kind of an obscure skill contest based comparison AM is a bit better because of the snipe but its hard to justify more than Mack for Matthews actual body of work.

Matthews is better offensively than Mackinnon, Matthews is better defensively than Mackinnon, and Matthews' contract will run through a year younger age than Mackinnon's, so of course Matthews is going to justifiably make more than Mackinnon.

 

[Notsince67]

Back up the Brinks truck. Nothing to see here.

 

[Petrus]

That's a bit misleading, as he was on a 50 goal, 100 point pace when he signed, and overall had one of the best pre-signing periods in the entire cap era.

Matthews got less than Crosby and Ovechkin, for the record. A significant amount less.

Matthews is better offensively than Mackinnon, Matthews is better defensively than Mackinnon, and Matthews' contract will run through a year younger age than Mackinnon's, so of course Matthews is going to justifiably make more than Mackinnon.

Just to put Matthews’ post ELC contract of 14.64% of cap into perspective, the Crosby and OV post ELC contracts were 17.30% of cap and 18.96% of cap respectively.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

It all depends on what happens in the playoffs. Another failure, and Nylander should be the first one to be jettisoned. He will not be worth his next contract 100%. This core will have to be start to get shaken up if the lose again to TB. On Matthews, I don’t think he is worth 13 or 14M especially without any playoff success.

I think Willie is gone regardless of success or not. JT, I think comes off the books in another year, I think. He most likely will sign a team friendly cap hit, since he will be in his mid 30's, young family, and his wife, I believe has career in Trona.
I think Marner is the next Captain. Despite his earlier issues, he has matured into one of the best two way players "IN THE WORLD", and I am not a Marner fan. His career reminds me of Gilmour's.
That leaves Matthews. My gut feeling is, he wants to play in a glitzy US market. If he was wise, he would stay put in the best hockey market in the world.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just to put Matthews’ post ELC contract of 14.64% of cap into perspective, the Crosby and OV post ELC contracts were 17.30% of cap and 18.96% of cap respectively.

Yep. Crosby and Ovechkin signing their post-ELC contracts under the current cap would be 14.3m and 15.6m respectively.
It was kind of a perfect storm situation for people getting misconceptions about our big RFA contracts.
1. There had been an extended period of time between young players of that caliber, and in that time, the cap rose massively.
2. The only recently-signed player of that caliber took post-negotiation discounts and ended up with one of the best post-ELC contracts in history, and the only metric most people consider flattered that player while doing the opposite to Matthews.
3. The cap unexpectedly stagnated for an extended period of time right after our signings, for the first time in history, limiting growth in future top-tier contract AAVs.
It's really skewed perceptions.

 

[ToneDog]

Crosby @ 8.7m and OV @ 9.5m for 17 years.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just to put Matthews’ post ELC contract of 14.64% of cap into perspective, the Crosby and OV post ELC contracts were 17.30% of cap and 18.96% of cap respectively.

When a player signs a year early, it skews cap percentage at time of signing. Crosby never played a season at 17% of cap. When that contract actually began his cap percentage was 15.3%. Ovechkin signed a THIRTEEN year contract so in no way is that cap percentage comparable to Matthews and his 5 year deal.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I don't think it matters. Last time everyone used Matthews as the bar. Key is getting him to take a discount. Then you can make others fall under that.

Let's say Matthews signs for 11.34 x 8, that is the ceiling for Marner. Nylander is a few million under that. If Matthews took a huge discount like 9, Marner likely does as well and Nylander likely walks or asks for the same.

Either way, I don't see Willy as a Leaf after this year. I think they need to move him and restock the future a bit. Draft with the Bruins pick and maybe get a top 10 first for Nylander from a bubble team.

 

[Jojalu]

Nylander was asking for $8M last time around so he won't be signing for $8.5 this time now that he is an actual UFA. Kucherov, Kaprizov, Tkachuk and Gaudreau are the next tier up but he will be looking for their money at least. IMO he will be very tough to bring in at $9.5M and I don't think he is worth that to a club with two better forwards. Without JT and Reilly on the books it might be different but they have what they have and paying top of the market is for clubs that only have a single marquee player or a truckload of cap space. A monster playoff might force the club to submit though and it could still be a win-win.

Matthews IDK as I am not sure what voodoo his agent used to get McDavid money on a short deal last time around. He signed a new deal February 2019 while working on the below 20yo season.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2018-19[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]NHL[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

What about that made the club think they were getting a better than Crosby or Ovy player? I can only think crazy expected cap growth made them susceptible to the agent's logic.. AM earned his money 1 year out of 4 and has not been the difference maker they needed in the playoffs, at least so far, unlike Mackinnon who was grossly underpaid for the last 5 years and has been a beast in the playoffs. In some kind of an obscure skill contest based comparison AM is a bit better because of the snipe but its hard to justify more than Mack for Matthews actual body of work.

Having said all that I don't think the guy will necessarily be shooting for $14M. I think he can be an MVP again so whatever deal he cuts he will earn, at least a couple of times during the term and he will definitely be resigned. But the issue, as always, is that the player's side will push that the injuries were bad luck and he needs to be paid as an 80 game guy.

I think Matthew's agent uses the fact that since he entered the league no one has scored more goals than him.

Right now he is toed with Ovie with 297 goals over that time while playing 30 less games.

Then McDavid,, Drai and Pasta.

He won 2 rockets, was runner up once by a goal.

Again, while I don't agree with it, most contracts are based on regular season numbers and not thr playoffs.

It is for sure a consideration but since half the teams don't make the playoffs, and there are stars every year on those teams it just doean't work that way.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't think it matters. Last time everyone used Matthews as the bar. Key is getting him to take a discount. Then you can make others fall under that.

Let's say Matthews signs for 11.34 x 8, that is the ceiling for Marner. Nylander is a few million under that. If Matthews took a huge discount like 9, Marner likely does as well and Nylander likely walks or asks for the same.

Either way, I don't see Willy as a Leaf after this year. I think they need to move him and restock the future a bit. Draft with the Bruins pick and maybe get a top 10 first for Nylander from a bubble team.

I like your thinking but can't see Matty taking a pay cut. Pasta should be Marner's ceiling and I'd move Willie if he wants anything more than 8.8. Hell I might move him if they lose to Tampa or Boston.

 

[Notsince67]

I like your thinking but can't see Matty taking a pay cut. Pasta should be Marner's ceiling and I'd move Willie if he wants anything more than 8.8. Hell I might move him if they lose to Tampa or Boston.

I don't begin to understand your analysis of Marners ceiling. He is 4 years into his current contract while Pasta is 6. Despite that, the last 3 years, Marner is #3 in points in the league compared to Pasta at #13. I'd say Pasta is below his floor.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When a player signs a year early, it skews cap percentage at time of signing. Crosby never played a season at 17% of cap. When that contract actually began his cap percentage was 15.3%. Ovechkin signed a THIRTEEN year contract so in no way is that cap percentage comparable to Matthews and his 5 year deal.

The cap hit percentages for all of Crosby (17.30%), Ovechkin (18.96%), and Matthews (14.64%) are based on the cap in the year prior to the contract starting, for the record. The difference is that Crosby and Ovechkin saw healthy growth in the cap in the time before and during the contract, while Matthews was signed after the league projected an 83m cap, which then fell short by 1.5m after the NHLPA refused to apply the escalator at all for the first time ever, which then stagnated for multiple years due to a global pandemic.

Also, even if they were signing at different times, that wouldn't allow one to manipulate the signing cap hit percentages or use future caps that didn't exist. Signing early is a decision that carries risk and reward for both the player and team. For a post-ELC contract, teams generally like to do it early because it allows them to lock in the player under what is historically likely to be a lower cap, and you can avoid potential improvements in the 3rd year that could drive up the cost, while the player gets to lock in generational wealth, and either capitalize on a hot start to their career or protect against the risk of a bad statistical year or injury decreasing their contract valuation.

A lot of the 2019 RFA class ended up waiting out their ELCs, but sometimes, when a team and player have a good relationship and the player feels like they've been given proper treatment and opportunity to showcase themselves, they are open to signing early. If you want to be upset about the time of signing, then your focus should be directed towards Lou and Babcock, who strained those relationships and did not provide those earned opportunities through the first two years of their ELCs.

As for term, Matthews and Crosby had the same term. Ovechkin had a now-illegal 13 year term, and while it's true that a 13 year term would overall result in a higher valuation than a 5 year term (which is why he got such a ridiculously high 18.96%), not all of those years are having an inflationary effect on the AAV. Years 6,7, etc. would be having an inflationary effect on the AAV, while the later years of the contract when he's in his mid-30s would counter some of that with a deflationary effect.

 

[Niagara Bill]

That's a bit misleading, as he was on a 50 goal, 100 point pace when he signed, and overall had one of the best pre-signing periods in the entire cap era.

Matthews got less than Crosby and Ovechkin, for the record. A significant amount less.

Matthews is better offensively than Mackinnon, Matthews is better defensively than Mackinnon, and Matthews' contract will run through a year younger age than Mackinnon's, so of course Matthews is going to justifiably make more than Mackinnon.

He certainly was better than MacKinnon offensively, but now with what is apparently chronic wrist injury his biggest weapon, the best shot in hockey, is no longer available

 

[Dekes For Days]

He certainly was better than MacKinnon offensively, but now with what is apparently chronic wrist injury his biggest weapon, the best shot in hockey, is no longer available

He has 10 goals in his last 14 games (while playing a number of those games without any of the rest of the core 4) and looks like a beast again out there. I think the rumours of his goal-scoring demise are a bit premature. I don't think it's very realistic to think that a contract is going to be based primarily on the sample in which the player played through injury, sacrificing production to help his team. Heck, even while injured, he's pretty much Mackinnon-level.

You'd think people would be a bit more hesitant to write off the best goal scorer of a generation, considering the top goal-scorer of the previous generation had an even worse stretch through a similar age without even being injured.

 

[Petrus]

When a player signs a year early, it skews cap percentage at time of signing. Crosby never played a season at 17% of cap. When that contract actually began his cap percentage was 15.3%. Ovechkin signed a THIRTEEN year contract so in no way is that cap percentage comparable to Matthews and his 5 year deal.

It's difficult to compare given the difference in contract length. But this might help:

Ovechkin (13 year Contract)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Average Cap Hit @ 1st 5 Years[/TD]

[TD]

16.08%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average Cap Hit @ 1st 8 Years[/TD]

[TD]

15.05%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average Cap Hit @ All Years[/TD]

[TD]

14.12%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Ovechkin Post ELC Contract 2008 to 2021[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]Salary Cap[/TD]
[TD]Cap%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$56,700,000.00[/TD]
[TD]16.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$56,800,000.00[/TD]
[TD]16.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$59,400,000.00[/TD]
[TD]16.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$60,000,000.00[/TD]
[TD]15.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.83%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.83%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$69,000,000.00[/TD]
[TD]13.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$71,400,000.00[/TD]
[TD]13.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$73,000,000.00[/TD]
[TD]13.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$75,000,000.00[/TD]
[TD]12.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$79,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]12.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]11.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13.00[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462.00[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]11.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Crosby (5 Year Contract)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Average Cap Hit @ 5 years[/TD]
[TD]14.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Crosby Post ELC Contract 2008 to 2012[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]Salary Cap[/TD]
[TD]Cap %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1.00[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 56,700,000.00[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 56,800,000.00[/TD]
[TD]15.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.00[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 59,400,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.00[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 60,000,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5.00[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 64,300,000.00[/TD]
[TD]13.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Matthews (5 Year Contract)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Average Cap Hit @ 5 years[/TD]
[TD]14.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews Post ELC Contract 2019 to 2023[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]Salary Cap[/TD]
[TD]Cap %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1.00[/TD]
[TD]$11,634,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 81,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2.00[/TD]
[TD]$11,634,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 81,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3.00[/TD]
[TD]$11,634,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 81,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4.00[/TD]
[TD]$11,634,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 82,500,000.00[/TD]
[TD]14.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5.00[/TD]
[TD]$11,634,000[/TD]
[TD]$ 83,500,000.00*[/TD]
[TD]13.93%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Projected Cap

 

[nuck]

With Nylander there are plenty of offensive orientated 1st line wingers to get as a comparison. Hell likely end up getting around what Flip Forsberg got adjusted for cap inflation (meaning he'll have a slightly higher aav). Will be worth every penny.

Matthews is a bit harder given that goal scoring centres are very rare. He'll likely edge out Mac as having the leagues highest aav by a bit (but likely less than what many presume. The biggest question with him is projecting the term

Forsberg was WN's best comp last time around and he didn't take it so.... Zibinajad in the same area I think maybe so near to $9M with adjustment for inflation. That's a fair number for both but probably not what he would be limited to on the open market and he knows that. There is an absence of leverage going into the UFA year where he can just wait to see the top number from the club and take it or not. He is still dealable into the season but the M-NTC would reduce the return significantly so waiting favors the player. I do think the last contract negotiations were exhausting for him as well so not sure Team Willie wouldn't be motivated to avoid all that.

I think Matthews goes big term. He won't be able to aim at Connor because his deal is up first so that means purely predicting cap growth. Worst case is he wants to bet on himself wait and see how much the cap is going to after next season before signing and that means coming close to actually testing the market whether he intends to or not. That seems like a risky play though as another non stellar year weakens his position. I think they extend him this summer at whatever it takes.

 

[Niagara Bill]

He has 10 goals in his last 14 games (while playing a number of those games without any of the rest of the core 4) and looks like a beast again out there. I think the rumours of his goal-scoring demise are a bit premature. I don't think it's very realistic to think that a contract is going to be based primarily on the sample in which the player played through injury, sacrificing production to help his team. Heck, even while injured, he's pretty much Mackinnon-level.

You'd think people would be a bit more hesitant to write off the best goal scorer of a generation, considering the top goal-scorer of the previous generation had an even worse stretch through a similar age without even being injured.

I am nit writing him off, he is awesome, just pointing out the wrist shot is missing. He has had challenges this season but I would not trade him fir MacKinnon and maybe not for anyone else straight up.

 

[Craig Button]

IMHO

Matthews should be getting paid less than Marner.

I want Matthews contract to be max 12.5M. His contract has to be less than Nathan MacKinnon

Nylander 9.8M max

2 more seasons left with JT making 11M

I expect him to take a pay cut in his next contract

 

[therealkoho]

I dream of a situation where JT, ROR, MM, AM, & WN all get together for a handshake deal like this:

JT - I’ll take 1.5 million
ROR - I’m good at 3.5 million
MM - count me in long term at 9.5 million
WN - I’m in for the long haul at 8.5
AM… Ok boys, let’s do this… I’m in at 11.5

Let’s shake on it… boom.

Isn't that what AM did back then, took too big a bite and too short a term with a FU NTC in the final year?

For me even if we win it all, he's gone at the draft table, and we start over with a SC lots of great pieces in stock and the handful of high picks, a new top 4 D and the top 6 forward we get for 34

 

[ToneDog]

I don't begin to understand your analysis of Marners ceiling. He is 4 years into his current contract while Pasta is 6. Despite that, the last 3 years, Marner is #3 in points in the league compared to Pasta at #13. I'd say Pasta is below his floor.

Today I'd give marner similar cap % as Pasta. Pasta is a 60 goal scorer like marner is a 100 point winger. He's pretty good.

IMHO

Matthews should be getting paid less than Marner.

I want Matthews contract to be max 12.5M. His contract has to be less than Nathan MacKinnon

Nylander 9.8M max

2 more seasons left with JT making 11M

I expect him to take a pay cut in his next contract

Nylander at 9.8m? Not for me.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

If you think Matthews signed for 5 years only to give the Leafs a discount for his UFA 8-year contract, you're very mistaken.

I'm thinking I might just avoid everything hockey in general when these negotiations are going down.

Decision time for our new GM is June 30. 2023 for both Nylander and Matthews. You can't let them walk into their last contract year unsigned and with NMCs.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I think Willie is gone regardless of success or not. JT, I think comes off the books in another year, I think. He most likely will sign a team friendly cap hit, since he will be in his mid 30's, young family, and his wife, I believe has career in Trona.
I think Marner is the next Captain. Despite his earlier issues, he has matured into one of the best two way players "IN THE WORLD", and I am not a Marner fan. His career reminds me of Gilmour's.
That leaves Matthews. My gut feeling is, he wants to play in a glitzy US market. If he was wise, he would stay put in the best hockey market in the world.

I always thought that Matthews wanted to leave and I still believe that. We're gonna find out very soon.