Columbus will "Not be the same team" in 2016/2017
- Thread starter lilfedor
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Johansen2Foligno
CBJ Realest
- Jan 2, 2015
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I have nothing against the rest of your post but this year we lost the lovable losers tag. With Torts, Dubi, Hartnell, Prout and Boll we are considered sore losers who cheap shot by quite a few fan bases. JMO.
I have tried to refrain from all of the moaning and kvetching on this forum over the past season. But after the Prout signing, I have a hard time seeing what will be different unless we somehow win the draft lottery and add Mathews.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Or just losers.
That said, I don't care what other fanbases think of our team. What I do care about is that there is sufficient evidence for me to sometimes tend to agree.
This whole disappointment of this season boils down to 4 players and $23 million in cap not showing up for the fan base or their team mates.
Bob, Foligno, Joey, and Tyutin for what ever reason were non factors this season and you can't have those kinds of cornerstone players/contracts take a season off and expect to be competitive.
Joey's gone, and I'm excited to have Jones. Nick may have been a flash in the pan, but he at least needs to play with some confidence and edge. Tyutin might just be physically incapable of playing above the 3rd pairing at this age.
Bob is key, you can't pay 8.5 million for 13-17-0-1, .909, 2.72.
He's got to get healthy and earn his salary or we'll be a bubble team at best next season. I don't feel Korpisalo is ready to be an NHL starter.
Bob, Foligno, Joey, and Tyutin for what ever reason were non factors this season and you can't have those kinds of cornerstone players/contracts take a season off and expect to be competitive.
Joey's gone, and I'm excited to have Jones. Nick may have been a flash in the pan, but he at least needs to play with some confidence and edge. Tyutin might just be physically incapable of playing above the 3rd pairing at this age.
Bob is key, you can't pay 8.5 million for 13-17-0-1, .909, 2.72.
He's got to get healthy and earn his salary or we'll be a bubble team at best next season. I don't feel Korpisalo is ready to be an NHL starter.
I agree that Korpi i snot yet proven. After Mason I can never really feel comfortable with a kid as the first line goalie.
In order for us to make the playoffs with the crappy D we started the year with, we needed Bob to stand on his head, and good seasons from our top forwards. (I said almost this exact line at the start of the year when people were saying Murray was going to fix the D himself). So in a sense I agree.
Tyutin is playing about as well now as he was a year ago. I think it just took folks longer to notice that he's not a top 4 D. He wasn't supposed to be much help this year.
I agree on Bob, Foligno, and Joey. Bob did have a .940 for about a month, and Foligno had that 18 pts in 19 games, and Joey, well Joey turned into Jones, so there's some good things to be said about each of them. But the seasons on the whole are bad.
But you say "you can't have those kinds of cornerstone players/contracts take a season off and expect to be competitive." I think with a roster with a better D-core, you can handle down years from a couple top players.
Or maybe the team just isn't as good as the 2014 finish showed?
You are right some guys underperformed.
other guys were their usual self (which in most cases means average at best).
Other guys played unexpectedly well (Korpi notably, but Cam as well, Murray got better after Jones trade).
Again some folks will look at it and say "we stink because of this", but I think a case can be made that the team is what it is (not very good). It's paid like a good team, but doesn't play like that.
This is normally the sort of exercise I do in between free agency and training camp, and of course this team might see some changes this summer. But we could also run with this forward group next year and I think it would be fine. Despite the collapse of Joey and Foligno, the top six scored at a good rate this year, and with improvements from young players, the 4 lines should be better next year. Wennberg's improvement, in particular, could be a huge difference for us. He was a black hole for offence in the first half this year but has been fine since then. If he learns to drive the net (god forbid!), we're sitting pretty on offence.
If this sounds pollyanish, I remind everyone that this is one of the youngest groups in the league, and typically young players get better. Old players get worse, players average 90% of peak through the age of 32, and we only have Hartnell and Campbell in that 32+ group.
Foligno - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Hartnell - Wennberg - Saad
Rychel - Jenner - Bjorkstrand
Calvert - Karlsson - Anderson
Campbell/Chaput/Clarkson in reserve.
With the following reasonable goals/assists expectations:
15/35 - 20/40 - 30/25
25/20 - 15/40 - 30/25
10/20 - 25/25 - 15/20
10/10 - 10/10 - 10/10*
This adds up to 215 goals, which would be above average forward goals scored. I'd be really curious to see other folks estimations for the individual players
*Each player's estimation is about 5% behind where it would be if they played 82 games. I'm factoring in a 10% games played loss to injuries, then assuming that replacements score at half the rate, and adding that production to the starting player's total. Kind of rough but whatever.
If this sounds pollyanish, I remind everyone that this is one of the youngest groups in the league, and typically young players get better. Old players get worse, players average 90% of peak through the age of 32, and we only have Hartnell and Campbell in that 32+ group.
Foligno - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Hartnell - Wennberg - Saad
Rychel - Jenner - Bjorkstrand
Calvert - Karlsson - Anderson
Campbell/Chaput/Clarkson in reserve.
With the following reasonable goals/assists expectations:
15/35 - 20/40 - 30/25
25/20 - 15/40 - 30/25
10/20 - 25/25 - 15/20
10/10 - 10/10 - 10/10*
This adds up to 215 goals, which would be above average forward goals scored. I'd be really curious to see other folks estimations for the individual players
*Each player's estimation is about 5% behind where it would be if they played 82 games. I'm factoring in a 10% games played loss to injuries, then assuming that replacements score at half the rate, and adding that production to the starting player's total. Kind of rough but whatever.
We Want Ten
Johnny Gaudreau
This just sounds like something the club would say in a letter to STH to keep them renewing.
Sales speak.
Sales speak.
Do they actually put down point projections? I doubt it.
Anyways, which of the player's projections do you think are too high?
Johansen2Foligno
CBJ Realest
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Please tell me which of the individual projections are overly optimistic.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Dubinsky's goal projection is too high. And it might be premature to assume Atkinson can reach 30.
We Want Ten
Johnny Gaudreau
Ha I wasn't referring to your post lol. Save your energy for the GDT killer.
I think You might be high on Cam, Hartnell, and Jenner. Possibly Saad as well if i'm honest. But I feel you're pretty close to what I would guess goal wise for them, I just may be more pessimistic than you though.
Is what I was referencing.
Thanks.
All three of those top liners got a boost for being on the top line. (And some players, like Boone, got knocked down for being off the top line). Dubinsky scored 8 goals and 13 assists in the 27 games when he was our top line center. Dubinsky's numbers are just an extrapolation of that over 82 games, minus a bit for injuries. And instead of 25-35 I thought 20-40 was more realistic.
I'd be surprised if the D get 30 goals next year, might not break 20.
In any case, which of the individual expectations are off? There isn't that much individual improvement here. Just Wennberg and Dubinsky really.
Cyclones Rock
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- Jun 12, 2008
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I think Dubinsky, Hartnell, and Atkinson goals may be stretched by 15 collectively and that the fourth line aggregate might be at least 5 too high. Atkinson probably peaked this year, Dubinsky will struggle at first line slotting and Hartnell is a candidate for age-related decline. Wennberg at 40 assists is probably a bit optimistic. I would hope that Foligno will rebound to the level you project. Saad and Jenner's projections would hopefully be on the conservative side.
I think your projections aren't unrealistic overall. None of your individual assessments can be viewed as not possible either-each player certainly has the potential to meet your projections for him. 4-50+ point scorers are certainly within reach for this team. This team will have to score by committee to be successful and cannot afford any of the top 7 (Dubi, Hartnell, Jenner, Atkinson, Foligno, Saad or Wennberg) to have sub par seasons-and I think that might be too much to hope for. The emergence of a Bjorkstrand or Rychel or a Matthews landing would be a great boon, pun intended, for this team's offense.
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He's quite capable of 20. That's 2 SoG a game @ 12%.
As far as Atkinson @ 30, he's probably going to hit around 28 this season. When you are getting close to 3 SoG's a game (which he's close this season), you start to get close to 30 goals.
I should be clear about some modeling assumptions here. If I was betting, I wouldn't say that Dubi would hit 20 goals or 60 pts. He's capable, sure, but there's too much uncertainty over Torts' lineups and you never know if he'll get stuck with Calvert in checking duty all year.
What I did in this exercise was pick some lines and then estimate production based on that usage. That's why Cam and Dubi have higher projections than Boone.
What I did in this exercise was pick some lines and then estimate production based on that usage. That's why Cam and Dubi have higher projections than Boone.
So just to argue this - the first liners increase because they are playing more.
How do you account for the 4th liners putting in 30 goals? For those guys to get 10 each they will need 12+ minutes a night.
IMO unless they buy some guys out you may get 10-15 goals combined from our 4th liners next year. Which IMO makes your 4th line 15-20 goals over. Again that is a huge assumption to have Clarkson, Boll and company not on the roster.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Capable of, sure. But he's never done it in union blue, and has managed it all of twice in his nine year career.
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