Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[StreetHawk]

Not at all. Pac 12 was assumed to be safe, but they’ve bungled everything so badly since they refused to expand into the Big Twelve that they shattered their brand. That in turn caused the LA schools to be interested in leaving, and them leaving was a mortal blow.

Despite their history, the Pac 12 never brought in the cash that the Big Ten or SEC did, nor have those conferences been so incompetently run. The SEC is not getting poached barring an utterly enormous reversal of fortunes that’ll be years in the making.

Will miss the PAC10/12 conference. But, with Football driving money and USC not the same since Pete Carroll left and the incompetence at the HC position over the past 12-15 years, it really hurt the conference to not have a powerhouse program. Plus, the next big market UCLA hasn't been a top program in the 2000's. Oregon has been the best since Carroll left. Washington has had its moments. But, really nothing else going on in the conference. Stanford was a solid program under Shaw, but had its limits.

They really needed to acquire Texas and Oklahoma back in the day. And for one of their Cali programs to become a top program again.

 

[KevFu]

There's probably a case to be made for the PacWhatever to be the next CUSA-type deal. Obviously the current Pac12ers are not excited about it, but when it comes to live sports there's still something to be said for owning a timeslot and the Pac12 still has that opportunity even despite conference/regional networks reduced importance in whatever's going to happen next.

I don't know how more exciting a Nevada vs San Diego State potential Pac12 game would be compared to the same teams in the MWC, but they'll be the only game on at night and people on the east coast that bet on sports will have a reason to watch and the Pac12 remnants will add a more national audience. UNLV/Nevada/maybe Boise State vs Oregon State, Cal, or Wazzu, for example.

Here's the thing, though... as it stands. "rebuilding the Pac-12" with the 2 or 4 members left in it, adding 8 to 10 more schools (the best of the MWC and American) is probably NOT something they can pull off...

When a school is debating a switch, it's all about TV dollars and doing the math on "if it's worth it." By balancing TV revenue vs Exit Fees and how long it takes to make more money (paying off the exit fee).

But the Pac-X has no TV contract; and the exit frees for the MWC is $34m to leave for 2024-25, and $17m to leave for 2025-26; The American is like $15m to leave either way.

And who's going to bid on the Pac-X contract when they couldn't get on TV with TEN SCHOOLS? ESPN isn't going to bid on that because they have HALF the Old Pac-12 in the Big 12 package now. CBS/FOX have the Mountain West already under contract, which that contract won't go away if the MWC is raided for 4 members.

It makes far more sense to MERGE the Pac-12 and Mountain West, use the MWC staff and MWC TV deal, rebrand the MWC as the Pac-12 and then go to CBS/FOX and say "we need more money because we are (technically) a POWER FIVE PAC-14 CONFERENCE.

THEN you offer SMU and Tulane, or Tulane and Memphis for 16.

 

[Spydey629]

Here's the thing, though... as it stands. "rebuilding the Pac-12" with the 2 or 4 members left in it, adding 8 to 10 more schools (the best of the MWC and American) is probably NOT something they can pull off...

When a school is debating a switch, it's all about TV dollars and doing the math on "if it's worth it." By balancing TV revenue vs Exit Fees and how long it takes to make more money (paying off the exit fee).

But the Pac-X has no TV contract; and the exit frees for the MWC is $34m to leave for 2024-25, and $17m to leave for 2025-26; The American is like $15m to leave either way.

And who's going to bid on the Pac-X contract when they couldn't get on TV with TEN SCHOOLS? ESPN isn't going to bid on that because they have HALF the Old Pac-12 in the Big 12 package now. CBS/FOX have the Mountain West already under contract, which that contract won't go away if the MWC is raided for 4 members.

It makes far more sense to MERGE the Pac-12 and Mountain West, use the MWC staff and MWC TV deal, rebrand the MWC as the Pac-12 and then go to CBS/FOX and say "we need more money because we are (technically) a POWER FIVE PAC-14 CONFERENCE.

THEN you offer SMU and Tulane, or Tulane and Memphis for 16.

Agreed, wholeheartedly. The problem is that it is much, much easier said than done. The legal paperwork to make it happen is monstrous.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

ACC will discuss expansion tomorrow. I think Memphis should be included along with California, Stanford and SMU because then you'd still have an even number of schools for football which works better for scheduling while adding a bonafide basketball school in Memphis with the ACC being a primarily basketball conference.

In such an event, I would expect the American to add FIU and Middle Tennessee, the last two major market C-USA schools that were in the conference prior to the current realignment cycle, and C-USA would bulk up in return by poaching Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, and North Alabama from the ASUN/UAC and McNeese from the Southland.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt adds Eastern Kentucky and Stephen F. Austin to get to 16 schools, allowing these games on Thanksgiving weekend:

Appalachian State-Coastal Carolina
Arkansas State-Southern Miss
Eastern Kentucky-Marshall
Georgia Southern-Georgia State
James Madison-Old Dominion
Louisiana-ULM
South Alabama-Troy
Stephen F. Austin-Texas State

With the UAC losing all its ASUN representatives, it gets dissolved into the WAC who looks to add more football playing schools as it eyes a return to FBS, while some of its non-football schools move to other conferences, like California Baptist and Grand Canyon to the WCC and Seattle to the MW.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

ACC will discuss expansion tomorrow. I think Memphis should be included along with California, Stanford and SMU because then you'd still have an even number of schools for football which works better for scheduling while adding a bonafide basketball school in Memphis with the ACC being a primarily basketball conference.

In such an event, I would expect the American to add FIU and Middle Tennessee, the last two major market C-USA schools that were in the conference prior to the current realignment cycle, and C-USA would bulk up in return by poaching Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, and North Alabama from the ASUN/UAC and McNeese from the Southland.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt adds Eastern Kentucky and Stephen F. Austin to get to 16 schools, allowing these games on Thanksgiving weekend:

Appalachian State-Coastal Carolina
Arkansas State-Southern Miss
Eastern Kentucky-Marshall
Georgia Southern-Georgia State
James Madison-Old Dominion
Louisiana-ULM
South Alabama-Troy
Stephen F. Austin-Texas State

With the UAC losing all its ASUN representatives, it gets dissolved into the WAC who looks to add more football playing schools as it eyes a return to FBS, while some of its non-football schools move to other conferences, like California Baptist and Grand Canyon to the WCC and Seattle to the MW.

Following up on this I would expect the WAC to focus on the Central and Mountain Time Zones to reduce travel across time zone lines, possibly needing to go into D2 to replenish alongside taking the Montana schools from the Big Sky.

 

[tucker3434]

Glad Cal and Stanford found a landing spot. Neither are exactly powerhouse athletic departments at the moment but are still big enough brands where they shouldn’t be left out in the cold.

Still, reaching peak insanity here. Maybe next they can add the University of Tokyo or Melbourne.

 

[BKarchitect]

Let's be real - this ACC expansion is about pre-emptive backfilling to maintain a 14/15 school quota once FSU, Clemson and UNC bolt so that the conference can avoid be annihilated like the PAC just was. FSU and Clemson were never going to wait for the GoR to expire to leave. The other schools just voted to ensure conference survival but if anything, it will speed up the "Big 3" leaving.

It's a little ironic that FSU came out and blasted the conference last month, UNC leadership told them to pipe down...and now UNC's board is basically telling the conference they just pretty much ruined the entire thing. Leads me to believe the Tar Heels were/are just as anxious to leave but wanted more PR cover. And now they have it. "Everything was fine until the conference chose to expand to the Pacific Ocean". And - now all three schools can argue that their leaving will no longer implode the conference and force undue burden onto the rest of the league.

 

[BKarchitect]

Also, it is absolutely bonkers that SMU agreed to ZERO media rights revenue for 7 years.

I mean I get it - they were desperate for a seat at the big boy table, and they are basically asking their rich daddy alumni to buy it for them (float the department while they get zero conference cut for nearly the next decade). But saying that out loud...it's just nuts.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I still think they should get Memphis in too. As I said, an even number of schools works better for football scheduling than an odd number.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Only question now is likely when OSU and WSU join the Mountain West is if they take the Pac moniker as their own or they stick with the MW branding. I know the Pac ## is more storied nationally, but the vast majority of the conference is more aligned with their current branding that their likely inevitable pickups.

 

[LadyStanley]

Meeting rescheduled to today

 

[LadyStanley]

AAC says it won't expand 'westward' as Oregon State and Washington State look for a conference

The Mountain West looks to be the likeliest option for both schools after Cal and Stanford left for the ACC on Friday.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Only question now is likely when OSU and WSU join the Mountain West is if they take the Pac moniker as their own or they stick with the MW branding. I know the Pac ## is more storied nationally, but the vast majority of the conference is more aligned with their current branding that their likely inevitable pickups.

As I said, spots could open in the Big 12 for them if the Big Ten decides to poach the SEC, the last P5 league yet to be poached by them, for Missouri and Vanderbilt and the SEC responds by grabbing OK State and another Big 12 school. Let's be realistic no team is leaving the ACC for a long time if ever.

 

[GKJ]

Go independent, guys. I believe in you.

You’ll get to play Notre Dame every year too.

 

[BKarchitect]

As I said, spots could open in the Big 12 for them if the Big Ten decides to poach the SEC, the last P5 league yet to be poached by them, for Missouri and Vanderbilt and the SEC responds by grabbing OK State and another Big 12 school. Let's be realistic no team is leaving the ACC for a long time if ever.

Lol I couldn’t disagree more about basically everting you’ve said here. Doesn’t mean tou can’t be right but as thing stand:

- Mizzou and Vanderbilt have zero incentive to leave the safe haven of the SEC and the B1G has even less reason to consider them as adds. They do nothing for the B1G.

- The ACC will absolutely lose FSU, UNC and Clemson well before the GoR ends. This is even clearer now. Adding Calford and SMU is a short term money grab that keeps the league afloat in the future when the powerful “No” votes decide to leave.

Took out my screed about OSU and Wazzu - thought you said Oregon State not Okie State. Anyways….those two schools are screwed now and it sucks. The Big 12 has no interest and more importantly neither do their media partners. ESPN is out of money and will not make existing Big 12 schools “whole” for taking those two and Fox has zero reason to give the league more money for them.

 

[Spydey629]

I still think they should get Memphis in too. As I said, an even number of schools works better for football scheduling than an odd number.

The five game agreement with Notre Dame basically fills that void. They only play eight conference games. So five weeks odd team plays ND, two weeks an odd number of teams are idle, and on Thanksgiving weekend half the conference plays an in-state SEC rival.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

As I said, spots could open in the Big 12 for them if the Big Ten decides to poach the SEC, the last P5 league yet to be poached by them, for Missouri and Vanderbilt and the SEC responds by grabbing OK State and another Big 12 school. Let's be realistic no team is leaving the ACC for a long time if ever.

The ACC getting poached is infinitely more likely in the short-, medium-, and long-term than the SEC getting poached, and I say that fully understanding how prohibitively expensive it is to leave the ACC for quite a while.

Maybe OSU and WSU are options for the Big 12 if the Big Ten or SEC raid them again, but that's almost assuredly not happening again until after 2024 and the pacific northwest state schools need to make an alignment scheduling decision.

 

[Sparty]

There's probably a case to be made for the PacWhatever to be the next CUSA-type deal. Obviously the current Pac12ers are not excited about it, but when it comes to live sports there's still something to be said for owning a timeslot and the Pac12 still has that opportunity even despite conference/regional networks reduced importance in whatever's going to happen next. I think widespread sports betting can also help out since the west coast games were always the last chance to make a day/week out of your bets and parlays. I don't know how more exciting a Nevada vs San Diego State potential Pac12 game would be compared to the same teams in the MWC, but they'll be the only game on at night and people on the east coast that bet on sports will have a reason to watch and the Pac12 remnants will add a more national audience. UNLV/Nevada/maybe Boise State vs Oregon State, Cal, or Wazzu, for example.

Big Ten After Dark!

Big Ten After Dark games set for Fox networks and BTN in 2024, per The Athletic

The new late-night Big Ten games expected in 2024 are likely to air on Fox, FS1, and BTN, as per Scott Dochterman of The Athletic.

awfulannouncing.com

 

[HisIceness]

I'd rather the ACC collapse. Cal and Stanford can go hook up with Wazzu and Oregon State and join the WAC or whatever. I'm not interested in "ACC after dark"

College football has gotten really stupid in a short frame of time. Sucks the other sports have to get dragged into this shit too.

 

[DaveG]

Let's be real - this ACC expansion is about pre-emptive backfilling to maintain a 14/15 school quota once FSU, Clemson and UNC bolt so that the conference can avoid be annihilated like the PAC just was. FSU and Clemson were never going to wait for the GoR to expire to leave. The other schools just voted to ensure conference survival but if anything, it will speed up the "Big 3" leaving.

It's a little ironic that FSU came out and blasted the conference last month, UNC leadership told them to pipe down...and now UNC's board is basically telling the conference they just pretty much ruined the entire thing. Leads me to believe the Tar Heels were/are just as anxious to leave but wanted more PR cover. And now they have it. "Everything was fine until the conference chose to expand to the Pacific Ocean". And - now all three schools can argue that their leaving will no longer implode the conference and force undue burden onto the rest of the league.

Yep. This is about making sure they have enough numbers to be able to hold together something of a conference. Four teams already have their feet out the door (Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA) plus worst case UL, NCSU, Pitt, and VT have soft landing spots in the Big 12 the literal second they become available.

It's still f***ing stupid and these 3 teams are in no way additive for the conference. But this is about setting up for the eventual survival battle and making sure the conference isn't relegated to full on Sun Belt status.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Lol I couldn’t disagree more about basically everting you’ve said here. Doesn’t mean tou can’t be right but as thing stand:

- Mizzou and Vanderbilt have zero incentive to leave the safe haven of the SEC and the B1G has even less reason to consider them as adds. They do nothing for the B1G.

- The ACC will absolutely lose FSU, UNC and Clemson well before the GoR ends. This is even clearer now. Adding Calford and SMU is a short term money grab that keeps the league afloat in the future when the powerful “No” votes decide to leave.

Took out my screed about OSU and Wazzu - thought you said Oregon State not Okie State. Anyways….those two schools are screwed now and it sucks. The Big 12 has no interest and more importantly neither do their media partners. ESPN is out of money and will not make existing Big 12 schools “whole” for taking those two and Fox has zero reason to give the league more money for them.

Not wanting to be the only private school in their conference is incentive enough for Vanderbilt. For Missouri they'd be in a conference with far more AAU members than the SEC, with just one non-AAU school in the conference.

 

[BKarchitect]

Not wanting to be the only private school in their conference is incentive enough for Vanderbilt. For Missouri they'd be in a conference with far more AAU members than the SEC, with just one non-AAU school in the conference.

There are now plenty of AAU schools in the SEC. Including two of the most gigantic research universities in the nation. These are not strong incentives - not when you are already in the SEC. Vanderbilt has been in the SEC for 90 years. They are damn lucky to be at the big dog table right now. They aren’t going to jeopardize that by complaining about anything. Neither of these schools are going to risk prime spots they already have over inane stuff like “oh gosh the Big Ten has a few more AAU schools”.

The B1G does not need or want Mizzou or Vandy.

Fox and ESPN have no incentive to have these schools switch either.

This is illogical talk.

 

[KevFu]

Also, it is absolutely bonkers that SMU agreed to ZERO media rights revenue for 7 years.

I mean I get it - they were desperate for a seat at the big boy table, and they are basically asking their rich daddy alumni to buy it for them (float the department while they get zero conference cut for nearly the next decade). But saying that out loud...it's just nuts.

It SOUNDS a lot worse than it actually is. Media rights are only part of the distributed money from a conference to its members. The ACC "non-media revenues" they split is gonna be double the American's and offset most of it, if not all.

The American gets about a third of the NCAA revenue as the ACC, but that's in a time period where Houston made TWO Final Fours. It's gonna be like 7x the amount for SMU in the ACC vs American. Then there's the bowl payouts and sharing ticket sales of ACC tournament and ACC Championship game.

Their travel will actually be cheaper in the ACC, too. Because basketball's gonna be the same expenses, they flew everywhere anyway and still will. But the American volleyball/soccer schedules either did not utilize travel partners (soccer) or had just all three-flight travel partners (at Temple and at East Carolina for example). The ACC will have the same number of pairings that are three-legged, but four that AREN'T and the schedule will give them 4 of the 7 pairs. So like, 28% of the time, it'll be cheaper.

I still think they should get Memphis in too. As I said, an even number of schools works better for football scheduling than an odd number.

Doesn't matter. No one really cares about divisions or a matrix in scheduling (that's what killed the WAC 25 years ago). Being at 17 just adds 3 teams you're NOT playing to the list of teams in your conference. That's it. You're still playing 12 of 120 FBS schools whether SMU, Cal or Stanford are in the conference or not.

Only question now is likely when OSU and WSU join the Mountain West is if they take the Pac moniker as their own or they stick with the MW branding. I know the Pac ## is more storied nationally, but the vast majority of the conference is more aligned with their current branding that their likely inevitable pickups.

The brand matters more (as in, make TV pay you more for the "Conference of Champions" even though you're really the Mountain West).

 

[BattleBorn]

Not wanting to be the only private school in their conference is incentive enough for Vanderbilt. For Missouri they'd be in a conference with far more AAU members than the SEC, with just one non-AAU school in the conference.

I'm a Mizzou guy, so I'm a little sensitive to the constant Mizzou hate, but I kinda get it. B1G was probably the place for Mizzou, but Nebraska sniped that opportunity and I'm sure the B1G has some regrets about that when it comes to the academics stuff.

However, Missouri is still a decent fit in the SEC as far as I can tell and I can't see anyone wanting to shed the state. Just got to get the KC and STL money to buy into the state school. Being in the middle of all the state metro areas makes it hard to develop a big money fanbase in pro sports towns, having BOTH cities in the state on the border of other states doesn't help.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

There are now plenty of AAU schools in the SEC. Including two of the most gigantic research universities in the nation. These are not strong incentives - not when you are already in the SEC. Vanderbilt has been in the SEC for 90 years. They are damn lucky to be at the big dog table right now. They aren’t going to jeopardize that by complaining about anything. Neither of these schools are going to risk prime spots they already have over inane stuff like “oh gosh the Big Ten has a few more AAU schools”.

The B1G does not need or want Mizzou or Vandy.

Fox and ESPN have no incentive to have these schools switch either.

This is illogical talk.

CBS has the Big Ten now and will lose the SEC next year, so they would see Mizzou and Vandy switching to the Big Ten as trolling both ESPN (who produces CFB and other sports on ABC) and the SEC. CBS would want this to happen.

The Big Ten should want that Southern presence too. Vandy is more realistic than grabbing an ACC school now. If Mizzou and Vandy left for the Big Ten next year they wouldn't have to pay a massive penalty to the SEC.