Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[PCSPounder]

Those are the only two programs I feel sorry for in this whole mess, Wazzu and the Beavs. From everything I've read Cal and Stanford did more than enough to torpedo any kind of expansion into Big 12 territory that could have saved the conference.

The first re-alignment bloodbath the Pac had every chance to offer OU, OSU, Texas, and A&M, they passed. A&M and Missouri to the SEC and Colorado and Utah go to the PAC instead. Big 12 backfills with TCU and plucks West Virginia after the ACC destroys what was left of the Big East by taking Pitt and Syracuse. From what I've heard from some SC fans I know they were pushing for a move to 16 but Cal/Stanford, and a couple others had no interest in adding the other 4 schools mostly due to Longhorn Network and this issues that would have been involved in getting rid of that to create a conference network.

Time two - the one where the Pac REALLY could have killed the Big 12. Texas and OU are gone to the SEC. Pac could easily grab Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas Tech leaving the Big 12 as basically the American with fan support. They say no, though IIRC USC and UCLA were one foot out the door already for the B1G and didn't support it this time.

There was also a meeting between the Pac 12 commish and the old Big 12 commish Bowlsby that discussed merging the two conferences that nothing came of.

Heard more than one story that USC wasn’t going to allow Texas to bring in the Longhorn Network, that they were the big vote against.
Thing is (and I’ve heard nobody else piece these things together- there’s logic to this, though), not long after that, the conference voted to equalize conference revenues. USC had a higher share before. It‘s not hard to put two and two together and think that most of the conference punished USC for blocking Texas. So, 10 years down the line, USC leaves.
I am most certainly speculating. I also think it’s probably not a stretch (given other things that have gone down) that Larry Scott’s mismanagement of the conference masked an unmanageable membership. George Kliavkoff possibly never had a chance.

 

[PCSPounder]

Disagree. The Big Ten already has four PTZ schools alone. Oregon State and Washington State joining the Big 12 would give ESPN access to them and Cal and Stanford, which gives them four PTZ schools in Power conferences they own the rights to to match Fox.

As I said in an earlier post, if the MW wants to expand they should look at the Big Sky. They already have two former Big Sky schools - Boise State and Nevada - in their ranks. Montana and Montana State moving up together which has been a goal for years would be accomplished quickest with a move to the MW. It would take longer with a move of non-football sports to the WAC and football to the UAC.

Nope. Stanford might work with ESPN again, but they won’t get told by ESPN. Stanford doesn’t care about money to that degree. There’s reasons Stanford and Cal are talking to the ACC… and they’ve been setting this up with the ACC for a year now. Discussions with the American are the second choice.

 

[PCSPounder]

Of course the distinction between P5 and G5 is about to disappear with the expanded playoff guaranteeing spots for 6 conference champions

This is poorly informed.

The distinctions will not disappear.

The networks, for some years now, have been DE-funding G5 conferences. The MWC started at $7 million per school, it’s now $4 million. Fox told the b12 in the latest round they wouldn’t pay any more for G5 schools upgrading. I know Boise State fans picked up on that. The networks are cannibalizing college football in order to attempt to stave off what they fear is bigger competition coming down the pike, or perhaps in the case of ESPN, is trying to set themselves up for being bought out by Apple or someone in that cash-richness range.

So that’s why I really want to address the comments made about how people should really feel about conferences… SCHOOLS ARE BEING HURT. That’s the bottom line. And people at those schools aren’t going to change their allegiances. It’s a misnomer to believe that there’s a big section of football fans watching lots of college football. Most people watch their schools… and if you’re moving them from a place of some relevance to a place of almost no relevance, the whole thing loses audience. Again, cannibalizing.

Let’s just say that this Duck went to a baseball game (summer collegiate wood bat league) in Corvallis on Saturday night. It was wise of me not to wear any green. Tension was thick to say the least. Not about to become B1G fans.

 

[tucker3434]

Heard more than one story that USC wasn’t going to allow Texas to bring in the Longhorn Network, that they were the big vote against.
Thing is (and I’ve heard nobody else piece these things together- there’s logic to this, though), not long after that, the conference voted to equalize conference revenues. USC had a higher share before. It‘s not hard to put two and two together and think that most of the conference punished USC for blocking Texas. So, 10 years down the line, USC leaves.
I am most certainly speculating. I also think it’s probably not a stretch (given other things that have gone down) that Larry Scott’s mismanagement of the conference masked an unmanageable membership. George Kliavkoff possibly never had a chance.

Longhorn network is going away in 2024. The SEC wouldn’t let them have it either. Big10 would’ve asked the same. Obviously those are the two with the richest media deals. Maybe that was the requirement for Texas to let it go, which would’ve never worked in the Pac12. So from USC’s perspective, I get why they would balk at taking a 2nd row seat in the conference they had had headlined.

Those outside of the Big10 and SEC just don’t have the media deals to dole out the revenue share evenly while also keeping the top teams happy. It was a catch 22. Couldn’t attract the teams that would give them a better media deal then couldn’t get a better media deal because they couldn’t attract the teams. Maybe if the ACC and Pac12 had merged before the exodus, they could’ve saved themselves.

 

[MMC]

 

[GindyDraws]

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Not realistic, we need three more schools to replace Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State. It has to be Washington State doing the equivalent of a Jackson 5 ventriloquist act.

 

[tarheelhockey]

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Lots of University of Phoenix alumni trying to figure out how they feel about this graphic

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Big Ten meanwhile's more interested in prestige institutions like the Vulcan Academy.

 

[KevFu]

I heard today that Stanford is going to have to start throwing millions more dollars at football to prop up the program after this. Imagine that, the esteemed Stanford University redirecting huge amounts of university/academic funds toward an openly pro athletic business that they’re running on the side. What are we even doing here?

This really isn't the reality though. Athletics really doesn't take resources away from academics in any way, shape, or form.

#1 - Ticket sales and TV revenue are the bulk of what's paying for athletics at the big schools.
- This also includes "Reward" money from the NCAA or CFP that comes from the TV contracts.

#2 - Booster donations to athletics. That makes up a ton of the athletics budget. Athletics departments are always fundraising among the fan base. Clemson, for example, has had a program called IPTAY "I Pay Ten A Year" for decades, it's probably up to a hundred bucks a year, or so.

#3 - Student fees. At the big schools, it's a small fee that basically is "Your free student tickets we take up front from everyone" (which makes money if there's more students than student ticket seats in the stadium/arena). The schools that "subsidize athletics" do it in the form of these student fees.

#4 - Marketing. The budget for marketing would need to be WAY HIGHER without athletics. The value add of sports success is massive. They're not putting 3-hour debate club events on TV nationwide. 30 years ago, very few people had EVER HEARD OF Gonzaga. But they bust everyone's bracket twice in a row.... and applications to the school (which includes a fee) skyrocketed, so the school could be more selective and their average test scores and quality of student rose dramatically. Gonzaga is the textbook case of why schools have athletics.

#5 - Merchandise. Sports drive merch sales for schools. You win a conference championship in football/men's basketball, you're selling a ton more merch. You go to the NCAA Tournament, you're selling a ton more merch.


You add up those things, and it's almost all of the athletics budget, and it's money that just doesn't exist anymore if a school drops athletics completely.

Not only thyat but no one is holding the feet to the fire of the nfl and the us Olympic committee for not putting a dime into developing athletes while weeping the benefits

Well, this more than the NFL, it's all the leagues. The closed system of US sports leagues means they can draft the top 0.001% of players 18-22 into their sport, and that's more than enough talent for them. They don't HAVE to develop any talent on their own.

And that's why US Men's Soccer is good enough to be one of the top 12-20 teams in the world, but no higher -- and why US Women's soccer's era of dominance is fading and they just got bounced in the Round of 16.

Because picking the best people who DEVELOPED THEMSELVES from a country with 340 million people is going to be "good enough" vs much smaller countries.

If STANFORD was a country, they'd be 24th in all-time Olympic medals, ahead of Spain and Greece.

The schools that are comprising the Pac-12 for one more season have alums that won 1431 Olympic medals (48% of US medals). USSR has the second most medals all-time with 1204.

US Soccer is on a downward trajectory because of a lack of development system because college sports do it for them. Some analysts are already calling the Pac-12 breakout a massive disaster for the US Olympic program.

 

[PCSPounder]

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Disappointed that this doesn’t include The Academy of Art. (Actual Bay Area school in D-2)

 

[Bear of Bad News]

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I thought this was fake because of the "I Said Sit!" school for dogs being included, but I just checked the rulebook, and there's nothing in there that says dogs can't play intercollegiate sports.

 

[red devil]

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The ACC might as well add Memphis too

Memphis is a basketball-first school with a decent football team

 

[DaveG]

I thought this was fake because of the "I Said Sit!" school for dogs being included, but I just checked the rulebook, and there's nothing in there that says dogs can't play intercollegiate sports.

but apparently they have to move to doing commentary if they want to go pro

 

[joelef]

This really isn't the reality though. Athletics really doesn't take resources away from academics in any way, shape, or form.

#1 - Ticket sales and TV revenue are the bulk of what's paying for athletics at the big schools.
- This also includes "Reward" money from the NCAA or CFP that comes from the TV contracts.

#2 - Booster donations to athletics. That makes up a ton of the athletics budget. Athletics departments are always fundraising among the fan base. Clemson, for example, has had a program called IPTAY "I Pay Ten A Year" for decades, it's probably up to a hundred bucks a year, or so.

#3 - Student fees. At the big schools, it's a small fee that basically is "Your free student tickets we take up front from everyone" (which makes money if there's more students than student ticket seats in the stadium/arena). The schools that "subsidize athletics" do it in the form of these student fees.

#4 - Marketing. The budget for marketing would need to be WAY HIGHER without athletics. The value add of sports success is massive. They're not putting 3-hour debate club events on TV nationwide. 30 years ago, very few people had EVER HEARD OF Gonzaga. But they bust everyone's bracket twice in a row.... and applications to the school (which includes a fee) skyrocketed, so the school could be more selective and their average test scores and quality of student rose dramatically. Gonzaga is the textbook case of why schools have athletics.

#5 - Merchandise. Sports drive merch sales for schools. You win a conference championship in football/men's basketball, you're selling a ton more merch. You go to the NCAA Tournament, you're selling a ton more merch.


You add up those things, and it's almost all of the athletics budget, and it's money that just doesn't exist anymore if a school drops athletics completely.




Well, this more than the NFL, it's all the leagues. The closed system of US sports leagues means they can draft the top 0.001% of players 18-22 into their sport, and that's more than enough talent for them. They don't HAVE to develop any talent on their own.

And that's why US Men's Soccer is good enough to be one of the top 12-20 teams in the world, but no higher -- and why US Women's soccer's era of dominance is fading and they just got bounced in the Round of 16.

Because picking the best people who DEVELOPED THEMSELVES from a country with 340 million people is going to be "good enough" vs much smaller countries.

If STANFORD was a country, they'd be 24th in all-time Olympic medals, ahead of Spain and Greece.

The schools that are comprising the Pac-12 for one more season have alums that won 1431 Olympic medals (48% of US medals). USSR has the second most medals all-time with 1204.

US Soccer is on a downward trajectory because of a lack of development system because college sports do it for them. Some analysts are already calling the Pac-12 breakout a massive disaster for the US Olympic program.

Us soccer is moving towards academy system.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

An ACC that adds Cal, Memphis, SMU and Stanford can adopt the following schedule format in football:

5 protected opponents
3 rotating opponents on an 8-year schedule (arranged so that each school plays each other school once in a four-year period)

These should be the protected opponents:

Boston College: Clemson, Miami, Pitt, SMU, Syracuse
California: Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Stanford
Clemson: Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, SMU
Duke: Memphis, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Wake Forest
Florida State: California, Clemson, Louisville, Miami, Virginia
Georgia Tech: California, Clemson, Pitt, SMU, Virginia Tech
Louisville: Florida State, Memphis, SMU, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Memphis: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia
Miami: Boston College, Florida State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse
North Carolina: Duke, Memphis, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest
NC State: California, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Pitt: Boston College, California, Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse
SMU: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis
Stanford: California, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Syracuse: Boston College, Miami, Pitt, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Virginia: Florida State, Louisville, Memphis, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Wake Forest: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Virginia Tech

All Tobacco Road games are protected, as are all games involving the group of Boston College, Miami, Pitt, and Syracuse, and every other in-state match-up gets protected too.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

If ESPN gets the Big 12 to add Oregon State and Washington State, these 9 games should be played on Thanksgiving weekend (per my groups of 6 teams that would be protected):

Arizona-Arizona State
Baylor-Texas Tech
BYU-Utah
Cincinnati-Iowa State
Colorado-Oklahoma State
Houston-TCU
Kansas-Kansas State
Oregon State-Washington State
UCF-West Virginia

This would mean Rumble in the Rockies (Colorado-Utah) would no longer be an annual matchup.

 

[GKJ]

SMU getting back to a major conference brings this whole thing full circle. Too bad it’s not the Big 12

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

SMU getting back to a major conference brings this whole thing full circle. Too bad it’s not the Big 12

They could very well join the Big 12 in the next realignment cycle.

 

[GKJ]

The Pac 12 offers from the networks were barely, of it all, better than the MWC deal.

 

[wildthing202]

Sounds like this could work for the ACC

 

[KevFu]

Us soccer is moving towards academy system.

Yeah, they made it on the men's side by getting MLS buy in (You own the products' pro rights and can sell those players to Europe, opening up a new revenue stream; which is huge for MLS).

But my post was getting long enough to include that in another digression.

The Pac 12 offers from the networks were barely, of it all, better than the MWC deal.

This is why the best bet for the Pac-4 is the merger with MWC and rebrand as Pac-16.

The Pac-12 got such low offers because:
- ESPN already spent their money.
- FOX and NBC already spent their P5/Notre Dame money
- CBS doesn't pay P5 money
- Fox/CBS ALREADY HAVE a contract with the Mountain West, which fills the same time slot.

Apple was willing to experiment. But then 60% of the conference left, and that's 70-80% of the league's value.

If Apple comes back with an offer to a Rebuilt Pac-12 that raids the MWC/AAC, that's going to be in the $7m to $9 range.

That's not enough money for SMU, Tulane or any American school to pay the exit fee of $10 to 18m, and make money back when they're already getting $7m from the AAC -- and from an Eastern based league on ESPN which is more exposure from Apple.

The MWC has a $32m to $34m exit fee. So even if they're getting $3-5m more by switching conferences, they don't cover their exit fee until year 7 to year 12; which is longer than that conference could exist.


BECAUSE the MWC already HAS a TV deal with Fox/CBS at $4.5m, a merged MWC rebranded as the Pac-16 needs to ask FOX/CBS to renegotiate -- and now has P5 status (for now), four P5 schools they didn't have before, the Pac-16 and Conference of Champions brand. They're far more valuable than the group that got the $4.5m per school contract...

And Fox/CBS only have to pay up $62m to $90m MORE to give all of them $7m to 9m each.

A Rebuilt Pac-12 is asking for $108m MORE, AND destroying a Fox/CBS asset.

A Rebranded MWC Pac-16 is drastically improving their existing product and asking for less total "new money" from Fox/CBS.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Sounds like this could work for the ACC

Again, they should add Memphis too. Having an even number of schools for football works better for scheduling than an odd number.

 

[Spydey629]

Again, they should add Memphis too. Having an even number of schools for football works better for scheduling than an odd number.

You’re forgetting about Notre Dame. Between the Irish playing five games against ACC opponents and the in-state ACC/SEC rivalry games Thanksgiving weekend, the ACC covers the two remaining weeks with an odd number of teams idle in a given week.

 

[MMC]