Boy , i'm glad you guys are not the GM . I don't mind Cole at all he is a decent "complimentary " player but he lack foot speed to be a play driver . I would def bridge him for a couple years and see how he progresses before I would drop the hammer on anywhere near 6 mil .
Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick
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MelikeJets
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The hammer? 6 million is going to sound real cheap soon based on what he has done and will do, but also on the salary cap escalation that is going to happen the next two years. The bridge may end up happening but If you bridge a player that wants to be here, and don't show faith in him with at least a 5 year deal, you risk him taking his qualifying offer for two straight years and walking to free agency. If I am a player saying I want to be here long term (to an org that has trouble attracting players), and the team says no, then when I do what I expect to do, I am not going to sign long term in two years .I would wait to become a free agent in two years and go to market at 26 in the prime of my career. Loyalty and commitment is a two way street.
Agreed. $6 million is going to be low end second line caliber player money in another year or two. If you can lock him up at that and he becomes the first line talent many think he will be then he is an absolute bargain ala Scheifele. Top line players get 9 plus million these days and it will be close to double digits for average first line talents in another year or two.
you're betting on projection and trajectory primarily. playing top-6 and some PP time he will probably be a solid point scorer to warrant 5M-6M
all fwds in the 5-6M cap-hit range this year (either signed as UFA or RFA) had an overall ppg of 0.64 or ~52 pts/82 gp, just players signed as RFAs though - 0.69pg (nice) or 57 pts/82 gp.
I think that's feasible rough range of pts for him
scheifele at the time of signing career high of 61 pts, good for 36th in the NHL, and actually playing C.
perfetti career high of 38 pts, good for 209th in the NHL, not playing C.
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I want to know what is happening with Ehlers and McG before I make a move on Cole one way or the other . The other question I have for you is Cole really looking for a long term deal or is he pissed he got scratched once we got the two TDL players .
Like I said I think he is a decent player and if he costs me a little more to do it in a year or so , so be it . To me he lacks foot speed to drive play but has very good hands and a high hockey IQ to try and compensate . If salary cap does indeed go up in a few years , there is more money to go around if the fans keep showing up for games in Winnipeg .
I mean you can say he lacks foot speed to drive play but that is exactly what he's done since getting into the NHL. He's already shown he can drive it, hence some of the best possesion and goal differential results on the team. Simply put he gets it done despite a so called lack of speed. He's burst in the top 20% in terms of speed so he can actually skate fast when he wants to, but its not his play style. He chooses to slow the play down and use fakes/deception instead of speed. not only that he scores at first line rates when in the top 6. He just hasn't gotten the minutes or the first unit pp time to put up first line counting stats but all the signs are there that he will when his minutes increase.
As for the rest, I'd personally not at all be interested in signing a long term deal if I were him knowing that with increased usage I stand a very good chance for a very lucrative contract in a couple of years. But if he actually isn't pissed at last year and is looking to extend long term then I'd be jumping at it if I were management because he's currently undervalued due to usage and he stands a very good chance of massevely outperforming what I can get him at today. That is ultimately how you win in a cap league having players that outperform their cap hits. For instance they bridge Scheifele instead of inking him long term right before he breaks out we don't have him at a damn cheap 6 million but are instead paying him 9 million during our contention years.
But as I said no idea why Cole would be looking long term now.
Not really sure what McGroarty has to do with anything. He wants out and will be dealt with accordingly. Ehlers they can choose to keep as well if they want, you can give Wheelers buyout coming off directly to him for the capspace.
Cole might have a quick burst from stand still but his speed carrying the puck up the ice is not great imo . And as for locking players up early it does not always work out . There are as many overpays as there are underpays . You are betting he is going to turn out fantastic and I'm just not so sure . I think he will be decent for sure but 6 mil for 8 years now or 7 mil in a couple years when you know where the cap is at is not a big deal for me .
Either way we have no idea what Cole , his agent or Chevy are thinking right now .
Either way we have no idea what Cole , his agent or Chevy are thinking right now .
If he was mid to late 20s id agree. but first contract off ELC is less of a risk imo, he will get better most likely.
voyageur
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I think possession stats always tend to look favorably on players who aren't trusted with defensive zone responsibility...and on a team like the Jets it's usually either top line (vs top line) or checking line that get that kind of work.
It's funny because his rookie year Perfetti had some defensive acumen and you wonder what happened to his game. Did Bones grind the confidence out of it? Perfetti is going to drive more plays than Monahan did, skating wise. Still have to see where he plays, what position, how/if the systems change to know where he fits. He's been able to keep pace with KC historically, and geez the one year Scheif fed him so many grade A chances but the finish was still developing.
I think if he gets more PP looks the points will come.
Negotiating with KO it seems like bridge all the way. It's never been any different with him. I think the next contracts are all performance based after the bridge is covered.
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You are assuming that Cole wants to sign long term. I doubt that. He more likely wants a bridge so that he can show he is worth more and take advantage of the rising cap. He probably agrees with you that "6 mil is going to sound real cheap soon".
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Keeping Ehlers or not isn't about cap space. It is about whether or not he is willing.
Skidooboy
Registered User
what if Were not willing? what if the Jets aren't willing?
I'm kinda over ehlers invisible man in the playoffs thing.....time for him to move on.
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Then it still isn't about having enough cap space.
I've accepted moving on from Ehlers but he needed to have been traded by now.
Last summer this place had thousands of posts on if we were going to use Helly and Scheifele as own rentals or sell at the TDL. I’ve long ago stopped worrying about how it will play out with UFAs and just wait for what happens. Either Ehlers will be signed or traded at some point. Chevy keeps everything quiet until it happens.
voyageur
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Or the Jets let him play out the season. The Arniel interview seemed to lend some credence to the fact the Jets think they have a better chance of making the playoffs with Ehlers than without him, and any draft table trade talks probably reinforced that.
Frankly replacing wingers is easier than any other position. A promising development year from Barlow and strides from Lambert and the top 6 is full. With the older Lucius and Chibrikov still developing.
Players who got traded in the final years of their contracts were generally players who wanted out of town, expressly. Only news fans got was that he wasn't going to re-sign, no trade requests, anything.
I still think it's in the Jets best interest to have Ehlers career overlap with Lambert's to pass on some of the experience.
To date Chevy has never let a significant payer walk to free agency. He has either signed them or traded them before they could walk. Since nothing has happened yet with Ehlers I think it is more and more likely he eventually gets signed. Either that or there is a potential trade out there that still needs a piece or 2 to fall into place.
voyageur
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I think when you are trying to maintain a playoff team, trading Ehlers 1 for 1 with his contract status isn't easy. If you think the tradeoff puts you in a worse position to make the playoffs it's hard to justify the trade. I agree it's new territory for the Jets to let a player walk, but then you look at Edmonton taking the same risk with Draisaitl, obviously not the same calibre, but you know players that have impacts, and sometimes you have to take risks...If the Jets lose Ehlers for nothing, all is not lost, with forward prospects and assets to move. If the Jets don't succeed, his trade value at the deadline is maybe worth more than at the draft table, especially if a team wants him long term. I'd say it's a risk/reward factor with the playoffs the end game.
Yeah this is pretty accurate. At a certain point the value of a late 1st + C prospect start to get outweighed by the chance of the team making the 2nd round.
Hopefully we can get him locked up by training camp. The price is only likely to increase if his usage does.
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If Jets keep Ehlers as an own rental and let him walk it is not that 'all is lost'. But a valuable asset is lost. The fact that we have potential replacements in the system has nothing to do with it. That value is still lost.
Keeping him unsigned is putting all of his value into 1 PO. Little change elsewhere means another quick 1st rd exit. That is not worth the loss of that value. Not even close. Trading him at the TD may be extracting the max value but is that likely? I doubt we are going to miss the PO this year. Is Chevy going to move him going into the PO?
voyageur
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I don't have any answers Mort. It comes down to value...and for True North the value/profit comes from playoff appearances...For all we know Chevy may have taken offers at the draft, didn't hear what he liked, talked to his coach and said play on.
There's a chance he re-signs, there's an overlap with KC's contract and you would think only 1 of the 2 get signed to the next term ..Then there is Perfetti's contract structure to consider. And the development of prospects...if Brad Lambert makes the team, can he learn skills from Ehlers that help him in the NHL...I think so. Chibrikov too... I like having these guys going into their UFA season because we tend to get good performances out of them, as they know the work reaps the rewards. Next season would be a great time for a career year for Ehlers, and his value. I think he has something to prove, but he's been maligned for perimeter play at times, and it will be interesting to see how Arniel coaches him.
Since it's a Perfetti thread, is Marchenko's contract a good bridge comparable...if the Jets do sign Perfetti long term, does that take Ehlers out of the equation for the future?
