Player Discussion Cole Caufield: The little man with the big future.

[salbutera]

Who was our last pure sniper? I'd like to say Max but I'm not sure he qualifies. Good goal scorer and everything but he couldn't score multiple ways.

Would it be Richer? That's so sad

Can’t discount Pacioretty, I’d say Bellows & Richer before that

 

[Adriatic]

The AAV can definitely come down if he were to get a 6 year deal instead of 8. I personally think he'll do a 6 year if his agent is smart. So a fair contract is 7 AAV x 6 yrs

That would be fair considering the kind of player he his.

 

[rahad]

Apples and oranges. Hedman signed his contract in 2017 not one year before Serge.

Victor Hedman SIGNING DATE: Jul. 1, 2016

Hedman would have got 9-10m in 2023 (Tampa Bay discount).

8x8m would be the dream contract for Caufield.

 

[SlafySZN]

That would be fair considering the kind of player he his.

You don't seems to know what kind of player he is, reading what you said couple of posts ago.

 

[Adriatic]

You don't seems to know what kind of player he is, reading what you said couple of posts ago.

I think I know perfectly.

 

[Lshap]

It's always fun to remind ourselves of Caufield's transformation from the BC era (Before Coaching) to the AD era (After Ducharme). Attaching back and front ends of two different seasons won't win any awards, but note the top goal-scorers since Feb. 9. Every name is a legit star. There are no flukes. Since Marty took over, Caufield is ranked 7th among the best NHL goal scorers and has one less EVG than McDavid and Austache Matthews.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

It's always fun to remind ourselves of Caufield's transformation from the BC era (Before Coaching) to the AD era (After Ducharme). Attaching back and front ends of two different seasons won't win any awards, but note the top goal-scorers since Feb. 9. Every name is a legit star. There are no flukes. Since Marty took over, Caufield is ranked 7th among the best NHL goal scorers and has one less EVG than McDavid and Austache Matthews.

View attachment 611232

You should count from February 10th

Both McD and Matth-ew scored an EVG on February 9th, but MSL started on the 10th.

 

[Runner77]

Exactly. Both decided winning was more important.

Nice to have players on board who will do that. It wasn’t Boston’s management doing at all. Just isolated outcomes that can’t be planned elsewhere.

 

[417]

The AAV can definitely come down if he were to get a 6 year deal instead of 8. I personally think he'll do a 6 year if his agent is smart. So a fair contract is 7 AAV x 6 yrs

His agent wasn't hired to cut the Habs a break. In his agent is smart, he’ll loon out for the best interests of his client, not the organization.

It seems many of you are only looking at this situation from the lense of the team and what's good for the team.

But there's another side to this negotiation.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

His agent wasn't hired to cut the Habs a break. In his agent is smart, he’ll loon out for the best interests of his client, not the organization.

It seems many of you are only looking at this situation from the lense of the team and what's good for the team.

But there's another side to this negotiation.

Bro what are you talking about. I've stated in previous posts that 6 years instead of 8 is a compromise that actually favours Caufield which is why I suggested it. People on here are throwing out 8 year proposals cause all they care about is locking the player up as long as possible. My argument was that Caufield while committing long term, should only take 6 years so only if RFA years are eaten up where the AAV doesn't have to be increased to compensate for Ufa years being taken and so that he can cash in at 27 as a UFA instead of at 29. So my proposal of 6 years is probably the fairest deal I've seen on this board. It's a win win on both sides, it allows for the player to become a Ufa earlier than he would if taking the longest deal, it gives commitment on both sides, and it fairly allows the AAV to be kept at a rate that doesn't have to factor in Ufa years which actually benefits both sides in the long term

 

[417]

Bro what are you talking about. I've stated in previous posts that 6 years instead of 8 is a compromise that actually favours Caufield which is why I suggested it.

I don't go scouring for your posts all over this place.

I responded to your comment suggesting that if Cole's agent is smart

People on here are throwing out 8 year proposals cause all they care about is locking the player up as long as possible. My argument was that Caufield while committing long term, should only take 6 years so only if RFA years are eaten up where the AAV doesn't have to be increased to compensate for Ufa years being taken and so that he can cash in at 27 as a UFA instead of at 29. So my proposal of 6 years is probably the fairest deal I've seen on this board. It's a win win on both sides, it allows for the player to become a Ufa earlier than he would if taking the longest deal, it gives commitment on both sides, and it fairly allows the AAV to be kept at a rate that doesn't have to factor in Ufa years which actually benefits both sides in the long term

Well considering i've been arguing that on an 8 year deal he will/should get more than Caufield.

i'm not sure that's quite accurate.

a 6 year deal takes him TOO free agency. It's debatable whether or not that's the best approach.

I personally don't know why people are so insistent on keeping the AAV low. Your best players get paid a lot of money because they're your best players, these arent' the ones you want to "nickle & dime", it's the players at the back end of your roster,.

That being said, i'm generally not the type of fan who obsesses over the salary cap. That's stuff works itself out.

Whether Caufield makes 7.5M or 9.5M, i'm a sleep like a baby lol

 

[Captain97]

I wonder if they'll do a matching contract in terms of aav + remaining length of Suzuki as a compromise of sorts.

7 years at 7.85, it would allow Caufield another contract to he signed before the age of 30.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I don't go scouring for your posts all over this place.

I responded to your comment suggesting that if Cole's agent is smart

Well considering i've been arguing that on an 8 year deal he will/should get more than Caufield.

i'm not sure that's quite accurate.

a 6 year deal takes him TOO free agency. It's debatable whether or not that's the best approach.

I personally don't know why people are so insistent on keeping the AAV low. Your best players get paid a lot of money because they're your best players, these arent' the ones you want to "nickle & dime", it's the players at the back end of your roster,.

That being said, i'm generally not the type of fan who obsesses over the salary cap. That's stuff works itself out.

Whether Caufield makes 7.5M or 9.5M, i'm a sleep like a baby lol

That was the whole point. It takes him to UFA status. But nobody in their right mind is gonna argue that 6 years isn't long term commitment. It's not about keeping the AAV low. It's about keeping it as a level proportional to the player and the contract. Normally if you up the term, the AAV might come down a bit but in this case when you include Ufa years in the tail end, the AAV should go up on an 8 year deal. The player is gonna ask for a long term contract after this upcoming contract is over. The question is, would you rather give out a 7-8 year contract to a 27 or a 29 year old.

And yes my comment about Coles agent still stands. As Kent Hughes pointed out in the Nilan interview regarding Bergeron, an agent doesn't just think about the upcoming contract when assessing options but also the one after that. Cole will be in a way better position at a younger age to negotiate on a larger Ufa contract than he would approaching 30.

Also unfortunately the cap is half the battle in today's league. The main reason (besides covid which is a lesser reason anyways) for Toronto's lack of player flexibility is because they didn't nickle and dimes their top players, and instead did the exact opposite.

 

[417]

That was the whole point. It takes him to UFA status. But nobody in their right mind is gonna argue that 6 years isn't long term commitment. It's not about keeping the AAV low. It's about keeping it as a level proportional to the player and the contract. Normally if you up the term, the AAV might come down a bit but in this case when you include Ufa years in the tail end, the AAV should go up on an 8 year deal. The player is gonna ask for a long term contract after this upcoming contract is over. The question is, would you rather give out a 7-8 year contract to a 27 or a 29 year old.

I think the best course of action is to sign him to an 8 year term at whatever the market value is going to be when they sign that deal, which IMO, is going to be higher than the contract handed out to Suzuki.

And yes my comment about Coles agent still stands. As Kent Hughes pointed out in the Nilan interview regarding Bergeron, an agent doesn't just think about the upcoming contract when assessing options but also the one after that. Cole will be in a way better position at a younger age to negotiate on a larger Ufa contract than he would approaching 30.

Well yes clearly, if the Habs are going to insist on keeping Cole's cap hit under Suzuki...Cole and his agent are just going to turn around and take that lower cap hit on a 4 year deal like Jason Robertson.

Also unfortunately the cap is half the battle in today's league. The main reason (besides covid which is a lesser reason anyways) for Toronto's lack of player flexibility is because they didn't nickle and dimes their top players, and instead did the exact opposite.

The Leafs example is a lot more complex than that.

Firstly, the short terms for Matthews and Marner was not good...signing John Tavares simply because he's from Toronto and wanted to play there was misguided. It was a luxury they didn't need.

Matthews and Marner got paid market value. They weren't going to be able to sign them for less unless they went even shorter bridge deal.

 

[417]

I wonder if they'll do a matching contract in terms of aav + remaining length of Suzuki as a compromise of sorts.

7 years at 7.85, it would allow Caufield another contract to he signed before the age of 30.

Jason Robertson was coming off a 41 goal season, he signed for 7.750M/yr for 4 years.

I seriously doubt Caufield would sign for essentially the same amount, over double amount of years, when he's trending for a similar, if not higher goal output this season.

I just don't quite understand why we have to have a compromise.

The Leafs signed Marner & Matthews for over 20M/yr combined.

It won't cost the Habs that for Suzuki/Caufield in even the most outrageous of scenarios, why is this even an issue.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I think the best course of action is to sign him to an 8 year term at whatever the market value is going to be when they sign that deal, which IMO, is going to be higher than the contract handed out to Suzuki.

Well yes clearly, if the Habs are going to insist on keeping Cole's cap hit under Suzuki...Cole and his agent are just going to turn around and take that lower cap hit on a 4 year deal like Jason Robertson.



The Leafs example is a lot more complex than that.

Firstly, the short terms for Matthews and Marner was not good...signing John Tavares simply because he's from Toronto and wanted to play there was misguided. It was a luxury they didn't need.

Matthews and Marner got paid market value. They weren't going to be able to sign them for less unless they went even shorter bridge deal.

Yes but Toronto indirectly created the market value and they or their agents enforced it. Also my prediction for Caufield is between 7 and 8 AAV at 6 years which I think is completed palatable for both sides. I think he'll get around the same as Suzuki because no way whatsoever did Suzuki's agent imagine Suzuki as a potential 90-100 pt consistent player and base the future contract off that because remember, the contract was signed with a year left on his ELC. I generally agree with you that 8 years is the best path forward but my take is if Caufield is fine with both 6 or 8 years, I'd rather do the 6 year deal as his next deal would be more digestible term wise

 

[417]

Yes but Toronto indirectly created the market value and they or their agents enforced it. Also my prediction for Caufield is between 7 and 8 AAV at 6 years which I think is completed palatable for both sides.

I'd give him anywhere between 8.5-9M/yr for 8 years and call it a day.

I think he'll get around the same as Suzuki because no way whatsoever did Suzuki's agent imagine Suzuki as a potential 90-100 pt consistent player and base the future contract off that because remember, the contract was signed with a year left on his ELC. I generally agree with you that 8 years is the best path forward but my take is if Caufield is fine with both 6 or 8 years, I'd rather do the 6 year deal as his next deal would be more digestible term wise

Oddly enough, I remember all the angst with Habs fans after Suzuki signed his contract. People laugh at that writer for the Athletic who called Suzuki one of the NHL's 10 worst contracts, but many Habs fans had that take even before.

 

[Captain97]

Jason Robertson was coming off a 41 goal season, he signed for 7.750M/yr for 4 years.

I seriously doubt Caufield would sign for essentially the same amount, over double amount of years, when he's trending for a similar, if not higher goal output this season.

I just don't quite understand why we have to have a compromise.

The Leafs signed Marner & Matthews for over 20M/yr combined.

It won't cost the Habs that for Suzuki/Caufield in even the most outrageous of scenarios, why is this even an issue.

The Robertson Contract isn't exactly great though.

When you look at other young players and what they did before they signed their contracts:

Jack Hughes was over Point/game off his ELC and got 8 million + is a centre

Josh Norris had 35 goals and paced for ~70 points and paced for 43 goals and got 7.95 over 8

Tage Thompson put up 38 goals and got 7.15 over 8. (Gave up more ufa years than CC would)

Jordan Kyrou over Point per game and paced for about 30 goals got 8.125 over 8 years (gave up more UFA years than CC yould)

Robert Thomas over Point/game got 8.125 over 8 years. (Gave up more ufa years, than CC would)

Tim Stutzle signed 8.35 over 8, with under Point per game but this was also 1 year away from RFA and at 19 so he is expected grow a lot more

Related as RFA but less related as they were older. They do provide context though as they gave up more UFA years by a substantial amount thus cost more on AAV.

Matthey Tkachuk just came off a 104 point season with 42 goals and only had 1 rfa year left he got 9.5 over 8.

Matt Barzal in a low offence Barry trotz system put up about 70 points/82 games and had great playoff numbers signed for 9.125 over 8 with only 1 rfa year left. Now that they have changed coaches is over Point per game again as he was before.

I can prbly find more but most of these Point at CC coming in around 8 million. Imo

 

[Team_Spirit]

 

[JianYang]

Love him but in no way should he make more that Suzuki. He's a lesser player with less tools.

None of that matters when it comes to money.

The money he can potentially make will be more tied to where the cap is at the time.

From all I've heard, the cap will go up, so thays good for Cole.

 

[CHfan1]

 

[Chr1s97]

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Gitter done, Kent!

 

[417]

The Robertson Contract isn't exactly great though.

My point exactly. Habs want to avoid signing him for less years, just to have this "less than Suzuki" internal cap nonsense.

When you look at other young players and what they did before they signed their contracts:

Jack Hughes was over Point/game off his ELC and got 8 million + is a centre

Josh Norris had 35 goals and paced for ~70 points and paced for 43 goals and got 7.95 over 8

Tage Thompson put up 38 goals and got 7.15 over 8. (Gave up more ufa years than CC would)

Jordan Kyrou over Point per game and paced for about 30 goals got 8.125 over 8 years (gave up more UFA years than CC yould)

Robert Thomas over Point/game got 8.125 over 8 years. (Gave up more ufa years, than CC would)

Tim Stutzle signed 8.35 over 8, with under Point per game but this was also 1 year away from RFA and at 19 so he is expected grow a lot more

- Hughes was not over a point/game, he signed his extension in November 2021, by that time he had accumulated 52pts in 117 games the 2 years prior.

- Josh Norris was trending for pretty much what Caufield is/has been trending for and like you said he got 7.95M over 8 years in a flat cap

- Thompson's breakout came a bit later (I remember wanting the Habs to target him when he was still with the Blues) but the Sabres got a great deal with that contract.

- Jordan Kyrou is pretty much the same exact situation as Caufield and like you said, he got 8.125M over 8 years

- Ditto Robert Thomas

- Ditto Tim Stutzle

Related as RFA but less related as they were older. They do provide context though as they gave up more UFA years by a substantial amount thus cost more on AAV.

Matthey Tkachuk just came off a 104 point season with 42 goals and only had 1 rfa year left he got 9.5 over 8.

Matt Barzal in a low offence Barry trotz system put up about 70 points/82 games and had great playoff numbers signed for 9.125 over 8 with only 1 rfa year left. Now that they have changed coaches is over Point per game again as he was before.

I can prbly find more but most of these Point at CC coming in around 8 million. Imo

I have him pegged around 8.25M over 8 years assuming he doesn't take a discount.

 

[Captain97]

My point exactly. Habs want to avoid signing him for less years, just to have this "less than Suzuki" internal cap nonsense.

- Hughes was not over a point/game, he signed his extension in November 2021, by that time he had accumulated 52pts in 117 games the 2 years prior.

- Josh Norris was trending for pretty much what Caufield is/has been trending for and like you said he got 7.95M over 8 years in a flat cap

- Thompson's breakout came a bit later (I remember wanting the Habs to target him when he was still with the Blues) but the Sabres got a great deal with that contract.

- Jordan Kyrou is pretty much the same exact situation as Caufield and like you said, he got 8.125M over 8 years

- Ditto Robert Thomas

- Ditto Tim Stutzle

I have him pegged around 8.25M over 8 years assuming he doesn't take a discount.

I think that 8.25 x 8 would be fair. I'm hoping we can get that matching Suzuki contract though. If everyone in the top six is willing to give a slight discount say in this case 400k. That's the difference between a Joel Armia and a Burakovsky