Cole Caufield breaking out

JianYang

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Sep 29, 2017
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Sign and trade. problem solved. Relax a little bud.


The Leafs should rejoice in getting rid of that Locker Room Cancer/Annual playoff choker.

It's more about utilizing the asset for something that is more of a pressing need rather than just getting rid of him.

I don't think the leafs really need a caufield, or at least it wouldn't be near the top of the list.

Habs probably don't want to invest their future in a guy like marner who seems to have issues when the chips are down. Talented player but you got to spend wisely in a cap world.
 

BlueAzN

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Jan 3, 2009
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In South Carolina
It's more about utilizing the asset for something that is more of a pressing need rather than just getting rid of him.

I don't think the leafs really need a caufield, or at least it wouldn't be near the top of the list.

Habs probably don't want to invest their future in a guy like marner who seems to have issues when the chips are down. Talented player but you got to spend wisely in a cap world.
Caufield doesn’t shirk in playoffs, that alone is worth the price.
But I do think you make an astute point about optimizing asset value. Would it be ideal that we get a bonafide #1 D for Marner the locker room cancer? Absolutely. But I don’t think theres any chance of chat. Caulfield is semi realistic
 

Sensatauro

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Dec 30, 2012
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Caufield doesn’t shirk in playoffs, that alone is worth the price.
But I do think you make an astute point about optimizing asset value. Would it be ideal that we get a bonafide #1 D for Marner the locker room cancer? Absolutely. But I don’t think theres any chance of chat. Caulfield is semi realistic

I hate the Habs, clearly, I am a sens guy afterall, but Caufield is a real beauty. Has agreat hockey IQ that's not really a teachable quality. Anytime he scores you can see how excited he is. It's Ovechkin like in that regard. Anytime he hits the ice you tune in as something is bound to happen.
 

Michoulicious

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Dec 9, 2014
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Caufield has sky high goal potential, it was always obvious to anyone watching him. Last year ver low shooting % in the year after getting a shoulder surgery was an outlier.

That forward core will look scary in 2-3 years, with prime Caufield, Suzuki, Dach, Slafkovsky and young studs like Demidov, Hage and one of Hagens, Martone, Misa or McQueen if they can get another top 5 pick (not unlikely)...
 

ole ole

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Oct 7, 2017
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A bag of Leafs branded hockey pucks. I mean you're already getting the better player.
You forgot about the 50% your retaining on his upcoming contract.. Than it might be fair.
On Caufield i'd be ecstatic if he can pull of 40 this season.
 

Wayfarer13

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Jun 21, 2020
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i think it is best to use a bigger sample size for statistical analysis. but slicing a hot streak out of the full sample is not really predictive.
Here is a question of metrics for you. How many games in and how many goals would Caufield have to amass before those numbers become predictive?
 

TBF1972

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May 19, 2018
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Here is a question of metrics for you. How many games in and how many goals would Caufield have to amass before those numbers become predictive?
the bigger the sample size the better.

so in case of caufield if you use stats from last season, use the full season stats. once you start to eliminate part of the sample you worsen the picture. injuries, cold streak, confidence issues, being snake biten are part of the game. if they happened in the past, there's a good chance they are part of the future as well. they help to predict the future outcome more precisely.
 

Wayfarer13

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Jun 21, 2020
501
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the bigger the sample size the better.

so in case of caufield if you use stats from last season, use the full season stats. once you start to eliminate part of the sample you worsen the picture. injuries, cold streak, confidence issues, being snake biten are part of the game. if they happened in the past, there's a good chance they are part of the future as well. they help to predict the future outcome more precisely.
Not really a useful answer.If he is in this kind of a streak say 100 games from now would there be enough of a sample size for a projection while acknowledging the possibility of having his career ended after being hit by a bus crossing the street? Numbers by do you not agree are only part of the equation in the projection process. Still a young player in his fourth full season. Two of his what is expected to be sub par stretches have explanations for why they occurred. Both circumstances have been worked through successfully.
 

TBF1972

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May 19, 2018
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Not really a useful answer.If he is in this kind of a streak say 100 games from now would there be enough of a sample size for a projection while acknowledging the possibility of having his career ended after being hit by a bus crossing the street? Numbers by do you not agree are only part of the equation in the projection process. Still a young player in his fourth full season. Two of his what is expected to be sub par stretches have explanations for why they occurred. Both circumstances have been worked through successfully.
you can believe what ever you want. if you are sure you are right, you can bet on a 68 goal season by caufield.

i expect him to cool down and end the season with less than 50 goals.
 

Wayfarer13

Registered User
Jun 21, 2020
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you can believe what ever you want. if you are sure you are right, you can bet on a 68 goal season by caufield.

i expect him to cool down and end the season with less than 50 goals.
Would you agree that a 49 goal season would be an elite accomplishment?
 

TBF1972

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May 19, 2018
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Would you agree that a 49 goal season would be an elite accomplishment?
maybe

not every goal scored is a result of skill. in hockey there are no own goals. players get credited with goals for simply touching the puck last. so there are many ways a player can get credited with a goal, which are not the result of his own elite skill. it's unlikely a player gets lucky bounces to 49 goals in a season. but it happened before. do you consider gionta and cheecho as elite for their 2005/6 seasons? i wouldn't. so there is no guarantee i consider a 49 goal season automatically as an elite accomplishment.

you guys have simply such a weird fixation on how the habs players are looked at by other fans. basically since his rookie season we have voices here, who consider caufield a 50+ goal scorer and try to push the agenda. he has never done it so far and never has been particulary close. even if he does it once, he won't be remembered as a 50 goal scorer by hockey fans. same as cheecho and gionta aren't remembered for their one outlier season. we still remember those accomplishments. but we don't value their careers by them. if caufield consistently pots 40 to 55 goals he will get the recognition he deserves. so far he hasn't.
 

Wayfarer13

Registered User
Jun 21, 2020
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maybe

not every goal scored is a result of skill. in hockey there are no own goals. players get credited with goals for simply touching the puck last. so there are many ways a player can get credited with a goal, which are not the result of his own elite skill. it's unlikely a player gets lucky bounces to 49 goals in a season. but it happened before. do you consider gionta and cheecho as elite for their 2005/6 seasons? i wouldn't. so there is no guarantee i consider a 49 goal season automatically as an elite accomplishment.

you guys have simply such a weird fixation on how the habs players are looked at by other fans. basically since his rookie season we have voices here, who consider caufield a 50+ goal scorer and try to push the agenda. he has never done it so far and never has been particulary close. even if he does it once, he won't be remembered as a 50 goal scorer by hockey fans. same as cheecho and gionta aren't remembered for their one outlier season. we still remember those accomplishments. but we don't value their careers by them. if caufield consistently pots 40 to 55 goals he will get the recognition he deserves. so far he hasn't.
For those seasons they were elite.Caufeild is in his 4th season and there were 2 periods where he was not not productive. One was at the beginning as a 20 year in a situation where the team had imploded. The second was a 73 game stretch coming off if a shoulder surgery. Lots of shots taken in that period but it wasn't until game 74 before it came together..Curious here what are metrics he needs to produce for you to consider him to be elite? How many goals in how many games?
 

TBF1972

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May 19, 2018
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For those seasons they were elite.Caufeild is in his 4th season and there were 2 periods where he was not not productive. One was at the beginning as a 20 year in a situation where the team had imploded. The second was a 73 game stretch coming off if a shoulder surgery. Lots of shots taken in that period but it wasn't until game 74 before it came together..Curious here what are metrics he needs to produce for you to consider him to be elite? How many goals in how many games?
i simply don't remove parts of the sample size, where a player didn't perform. every nhl player averages better than ppg in games he scores.

most nhl players endure injuries. they are part of the game. if we bet on caufield staying 100% healthy the rest of his career, i'll take the under.
 

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
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i simply don't remove parts of the sample size, where a player didn't perform. every nhl player averages better than ppg in games he scores.

most nhl players endure injuries. they are part of the game. if we bet on caufield staying 100% healthy the rest of his career, i'll take the under.
Also, Cole Caufield has a 35% xGoals share this year EV. Not exactly showing that he's levelled up his game. And he's generating less shots, less shot attempts, less expected goals, and his assist production is now non existent
Screenshot 2024-11-04 at 4.27.14 PM.png



Screenshot 2024-11-04 at 4.26.25 PM.png


Outside of the 30% shooting heater he's been on to start the year, the underlyings are kinda terrifying.
 

Evergreen

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He is just starting to peak.

Dude has always been a scoring machine.

Question of time before he hits 40 or 50.

Probably goes top 5 in a '19 redraft.
I was pretty upset when the Flyers passed on him in that draft. York is okay, I guess, but it’s been so long since we’ve had someone who can score like Cole.
 
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