Cole Caufield breaking out

[the paisanos guy]

Also, Cole Caufield has a 35% xGoals share this year EV. Not exactly showing that he's levelled up his game. And he's generating less shots, less shot attempts, less expected goals, and his assist production is now non existent
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Outside of the 30% shooting heater he's been on to start the year, the underlyings are kinda terrifying.

noted natural goal scorer is tied for first league-wide in goals

"but have you seen his 35% EV xGoals!!"

 

[Wayfarer13]

i simply don't remove parts of the sample size, where a player didn't perform. every nhl player averages better than ppg in games he scores.

most nhl players endure injuries. they are part of the game. if we bet on caufield staying 100% healthy the rest of his career, i'll take the under.

Had 1 injury with full recovery being expected at over a year. Shoulder looks good right now.

 

[dgibb10]

noted natural goal scorer is tied for first league-wide in goals

"but have you seen his 35% EV xGoals!!"

Not a single player in 30 years has maintained a 29% shooting % over the course of a season.

That shooting % WILL come down. And if the rest of his game remains what it has been, it's not gonna be pretty when it does.

 

[amnesiac]

Not a single player in 30 years has maintained a 29% shooting % over the course of a season.

That shooting % WILL come down. And if the rest of his game remains what it has been, it's not gonna be pretty when it does.

what?

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right? he had 314 shots last season, and will surely be around that again.

 

[AvatarAang]

you guys need math lessons.

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right?

I checked his stats he hasn’t even scored 29 goals in a season

 

[dgibb10]

you guys need math lessons.

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right?

15% shooting and 50 goals = 333 shots.

He is currently on pace for 232 shots.

232 shots at a 15% shooting would be 35 goals.

Maybe at his previous levels of chance creation, but, as I said, IT IS CONCERNING THAT HIS CHANCE GENERATION HAS BEEN LOWER THIS YEAR

 

[amnesiac]

I checked his stats he hasn’t even scored 29 goals in a season

26 in 46 two seasons ago.

Not saying he'll score 50 this season, but hes on his way to 40 no doubt.... Just look at his shot. Its a top 6 in the game.

15% shooting and 50 goals = 333 shots.

He is currently on pace for 232 shots.

232 shots at a 15% shooting would be 35 goals.

Maybe at his previous levels of chance creation, but, as I said, IT IS CONCERNING THAT HIS CHANCE GENERATION HAS BEEN LOWER THIS YEAR

were 12 games in with 70 games to go.... hes not going from 314 shots to 232 because of his "shot generation" over this small sample size.

Theres porbably 50 players with "concerning shot generations" at this point.

 

[Jauffre]

I recommend Clearasil

 

[dgibb10]

26 in 46 two seasons ago.

Not saying he'll score 50 this season, but hes on his way to 40 no doubt.... Just look at his shot. Its a top 6 in the game.


were 12 games in with 70 games to go.... hes not going from 314 shots to 232 because of his "shot generation" over this small sample size.

Theres porbably 50 players with "concerning shot generations" at this point.

You can't have it both ways.

You can't use "it's a small sample size" to pretend the shots decrease doesn't matter while using that exact same sample size (except much smaller and more variable as goals are more luck based than shots) to tout his goals and shooting.

And again, I'm not claiming caufield is washed or declining.

You are trying to use a 12 game sample size from this year to say he's made the jump to elite. And yet, when the very concerning underlyings are brought out, it's all of a sudden too small a sample size to count?

 

[Frank Drebin]

We got the resident devils fan statsplaining to us here too eh?

 

[amnesiac]

You can't have it both ways.

You can't use "it's a small sample size" to pretend the shots decrease doesn't matter while using that exact same sample size (except much smaller and more variable as goals are more luck based than shots) to tout his goals and shooting.

And again, I'm not claiming caufield is washed or declining.

You are trying to use a 12 game sample size from this year to say he's made the jump to elite. And yet, when the very concerning underlyings are brought out, it's all of a sudden too small a sample size to count?

if you read the OP, its a 21 games sample size dating back to last season. And before that he had 26 in 46 two seasons ago. And before that he broke the goalscoring record in NCAA.

Of course he has more to prove, but this is about projecting. Every 40 goal scorer had to score 40 for the first time at some point.

Look at say, Pastrnak's progression. Took him 6 years to hit 40!

 

[dgibb10]

if you read the OP, its a 21 games sample size dating back to last season. And before that he had 26 in 46 two seasons ago. And before that he broke the goalscoring record in NCAA.

Of course he has more to prove, but this is about projecting. Every 40 goal scorer had to score 40 for the first time at some point.

Look at say, Pastrnak's progression. Took him 6 years to hit 40!

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And in the 19 games before that he had 1 goal.

1 goal on 71 shots in 19 games
18 goals on 75 shots in 21 games

Do you think he massively changed on 1 day? no. Sometimes you get good shooting luck. Sometimes bad.

Pasta didn't become a 40 goal scorer by magically doubling his shooting%.

Pasta's big increase in 16-17 into a was mostly fueled by 2 things. He got placed on PP1, and he was moved up to the top line.
That alone added 10-15 goals a year to his total. This is not an improvement caufield will see, since he has gotten PP1 time his whole career.


Outside of the PP, here is pasta EV. If you notice, his shooting% didn't all of a sudden spike to 25% to make him a top goal scorer. He generated more chances.
Additionally, he was moved up the lineup and given more ice time. Again, not something you will see for caufield considering he has been given this top ice time for the last.

You can hope to ride a shooting heater if you want. But if caufield wants to become an consistently elite scorer, he needs to figure out how to generate more chances. He was doing very well in 23-24 for chance generation. But this year has been the wrong way for that so far.

And if he wants to become an elite player, he needs to figure out how to not give up a ridiculous amount of chances the other way

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Might get his first 30 goal season in year 5. Stay tuned.

 

[bud12]

Might get his first 30 goal season in year 5. Stay tuned.

Pro rated to 82 games, he's at 34g during his career and 37g in the last 3years......

 

[Wayfarer13]

And in the 19 games before that he had 1 goal.

1 goal on 71 shots in 19 games
18 goals on 75 shots in 21 games

Do you think he massively changed on 1 day? no. Sometimes you get good shooting luck. Sometimes bad.

Pasta didn't become a 40 goal scorer by magically doubling his shooting%.

Pasta's big increase in 16-17 into a was mostly fueled by 2 things. He got placed on PP1, and he was moved up to the top line.
That alone added 10-15 goals a year to his total. This is not an improvement caufield will see, since he has gotten PP1 time his whole career.


Outside of the PP, here is pasta EV. If you notice, his shooting% didn't all of a sudden spike to 25% to make him a top goal scorer. He generated more chances.
Additionally, he was moved up the lineup and given more ice time. Again, not something you will see for caufield considering he has been given this top ice time for the last.
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You can hope to ride a shooting heater if you want. But if caufield wants to become an consistently elite scorer, he needs to figure out how to generate more chances. He was doing very well in 23-24 for chance generation. But this year has been the wrong way for that so far.

And if he wants to become an elite player, he needs to figure out how to not give up a ridiculous amount of chances the other way

I would say he hit a tipping point in the recovery of his shoulder at the beginning of this streak. Are you saying that we should have seen linear curve upward in production leading up to this streak?

 

[dgibb10]

I would say he hit a tipping point in the recovery of his shoulder at the beginning of this streak. Are you saying that we should have seen linear curve upward in production leading up to this streak?

I'm saying that a shooting heater is simply a shooting heater.

Players go on shooting heaters and coolers all the time due to the variance involved. Pointing to them as meaningful changes in a players level is stupid.

Caufield especially has been a streaky shooter. Don't overreact to the shooting high, and don't overreact to his next shooting cooler when it inevitably comes.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Might get his first 30 goal season in year 5. Stay tuned.

Quick, sign him for 11m!

 

[Wayfarer13]

I'm saying that a shooting heater is simply a shooting heater.

Players go on shooting heaters and coolers all the time due to the variance involved. Pointing to them as meaningful changes in a players level is stupid.

Caufield especially has been a streaky shooter. Don't overreact to the shooting high, and don't overreact to his next shooting cooler when it inevitably comes.

I argue different on that.As a professional there were two down periods which have good explanations for them
Really he hasn't had a disportionate number of multi goal games.Later I will crunch the math excluding those 2 stretches. Out and about at the moment.

 

[dgibb10]

I argue different on that.As a professional there were two down periods which have good explanations for them
Really he hasn't had a disportionate number of multi goal games.Later I will crunch the math excluding those 2 stretches. Out and about at the moment.

Oh god I can't wait for this.

Let me guess, you're going to pretend that the 25 game shooting cooler last year is never gonna happen again, and the 30 game shooting cooler to start 21-22 will not happen again or the other 30 game shooting cooler at the beginning of last year isn't gonna happen again?

That's 40% of his career games lmao.

Crazy how Caufield was able to shoot at the start of last year, then magically was injured for the next 30 games, but then was able to shoot again for a month, but then got injured so he couldn't shoot again for another month, then finally could shoot again at the end of the year.

He is a streaky shooter

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nope. Debrincat is a one-timer master who needs feeds and a goalie laterally scrambling for position to score, and scores a lot on the powerplay. Caufield is a master at wrist shots who scores mostly at even-strenght, often while carrying the puck, which is something Cat doesn't do nearly as regularly.

Caufield has the tools to score more goals than Cat.

Career
DBC 34% PP goals
Caufield 27% PP goals.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Pro rated to 82 games, he's at 34g during his career and 37g in the last 3years......

You have to actually do it, to be a 30 goal scorer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

26 in 46 two seasons ago.

Not saying he'll score 50 this season, but hes on his way to 40 no doubt.... Just look at his shot. Its a top 6 in the game.


were 12 games in with 70 games to go.... hes not going from 314 shots to 232 because of his "shot generation" over this small sample size.

Theres porbably 50 players with "concerning shot generations" at this point.

Maybe the reason his shot generation is down is because so many of his shifts have ended prematurely with him scoring a goal.

 

[dgibb10]

Maybe the reason his shot generation is down is because so many of his shifts have ended prematurely with him scoring a goal.

except all of the metrics I'm referring are /60

 

[tarheelhockey]

except all of the metrics I'm referring are /60

Have you looked into whether shots/60 rates change across the course of a shift? My guess is that the shooting rate within the first 10 seconds of a shift looks diametrically opposite the shooting rate within the last 10 seconds of a shift. So when a shift is shortened, it might significantly alter the number of shots credited to the volume shooters on the ice.

I was only half-serious with my comment, but the serious half says that we’re talking about a 12 game sample so it actually might be plausible that goal-shortened shifts are partially to blame for a reduction in overall shots for a guy who has scored 10 goals in such a short time.

 

[dgibb10]

Have you looked into whether shots/60 rates change across the course of a shift? My guess is that the shooting rate within the first 10 seconds of a shift looks diametrically opposite the shooting rate within the last 10 seconds of a shift. So when a shift is shortened, it might significantly alter the number of shots credited to the volume shooters on the ice.

I was only half-serious with my comment, but the serious half says that we’re talking about a 12 game sample so it actually might be plausible that goal-shortened shifts are partially to blame for a reduction in overall shots for a guy who has scored 10 goals in such a short time.

Meh, it's a tenuous assumption at best and falls apart when you actually think about the numbers

Since I was looking at his EV shot shares, to maintain his rate of 11shots/60 from previous years he would have to be at 30 shots instead of 22 that he's at rn.

He's at 2.4 expected goals, so we'll give him 3 there. To suggest that A) the goalie wouldn't have frozen the puck on the save, and B) he would have gotten 8 shots on the let's say 3 shifts extended by 10-20 seconds each is ridiculous.