Cole Caufield breaking out

[the paisanos guy]

Also, Cole Caufield has a 35% xGoals share this year EV. Not exactly showing that he's levelled up his game. And he's generating less shots, less shot attempts, less expected goals, and his assist production is now non existent
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Outside of the 30% shooting heater he's been on to start the year, the underlyings are kinda terrifying.

noted natural goal scorer is tied for first league-wide in goals

"but have you seen his 35% EV xGoals!!"

 

[Wayfarer13]

i simply don't remove parts of the sample size, where a player didn't perform. every nhl player averages better than ppg in games he scores.

most nhl players endure injuries. they are part of the game. if we bet on caufield staying 100% healthy the rest of his career, i'll take the under.

Had 1 injury with full recovery being expected at over a year. Shoulder looks good right now.

 

[dgibb10]

noted natural goal scorer is tied for first league-wide in goals

"but have you seen his 35% EV xGoals!!"

Not a single player in 30 years has maintained a 29% shooting % over the course of a season.

That shooting % WILL come down. And if the rest of his game remains what it has been, it's not gonna be pretty when it does.

 

[amnesiac]

Not a single player in 30 years has maintained a 29% shooting % over the course of a season.

That shooting % WILL come down. And if the rest of his game remains what it has been, it's not gonna be pretty when it does.

what?

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right? he had 314 shots last season, and will surely be around that again.

 

[AvatarAang]

you guys need math lessons.

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right?

I checked his stats he hasn’t even scored 29 goals in a season

 

[dgibb10]

you guys need math lessons.

you realise he would still score 50G if he shot% went down to 15%, right?

15% shooting and 50 goals = 333 shots.

He is currently on pace for 232 shots.

232 shots at a 15% shooting would be 35 goals.

Maybe at his previous levels of chance creation, but, as I said, IT IS CONCERNING THAT HIS CHANCE GENERATION HAS BEEN LOWER THIS YEAR

 

[amnesiac]

I checked his stats he hasn’t even scored 29 goals in a season

26 in 46 two seasons ago.

Not saying he'll score 50 this season, but hes on his way to 40 no doubt.... Just look at his shot. Its a top 6 in the game.

15% shooting and 50 goals = 333 shots.

He is currently on pace for 232 shots.

232 shots at a 15% shooting would be 35 goals.

Maybe at his previous levels of chance creation, but, as I said, IT IS CONCERNING THAT HIS CHANCE GENERATION HAS BEEN LOWER THIS YEAR

were 12 games in with 70 games to go.... hes not going from 314 shots to 232 because of his "shot generation" over this small sample size.

Theres porbably 50 players with "concerning shot generations" at this point.

 

[Jauffre]

I recommend Clearasil

 

[dgibb10]

26 in 46 two seasons ago.

Not saying he'll score 50 this season, but hes on his way to 40 no doubt.... Just look at his shot. Its a top 6 in the game.


were 12 games in with 70 games to go.... hes not going from 314 shots to 232 because of his "shot generation" over this small sample size.

Theres porbably 50 players with "concerning shot generations" at this point.

You can't have it both ways.

You can't use "it's a small sample size" to pretend the shots decrease doesn't matter while using that exact same sample size (except much smaller and more variable as goals are more luck based than shots) to tout his goals and shooting.

And again, I'm not claiming caufield is washed or declining.

You are trying to use a 12 game sample size from this year to say he's made the jump to elite. And yet, when the very concerning underlyings are brought out, it's all of a sudden too small a sample size to count?

 

[Frank Drebin]

We got the resident devils fan statsplaining to us here too eh?

 

[amnesiac]

You can't have it both ways.

You can't use "it's a small sample size" to pretend the shots decrease doesn't matter while using that exact same sample size (except much smaller and more variable as goals are more luck based than shots) to tout his goals and shooting.

And again, I'm not claiming caufield is washed or declining.

You are trying to use a 12 game sample size from this year to say he's made the jump to elite. And yet, when the very concerning underlyings are brought out, it's all of a sudden too small a sample size to count?

if you read the OP, its a 21 games sample size dating back to last season. And before that he had 26 in 46 two seasons ago. And before that he broke the goalscoring record in NCAA.

Of course he has more to prove, but this is about projecting. Every 40 goal scorer had to score 40 for the first time at some point.

Look at say, Pastrnak's progression. Took him 6 years to hit 40!

 

[dgibb10]

if you read the OP, its a 21 games sample size dating back to last season. And before that he had 26 in 46 two seasons ago. And before that he broke the goalscoring record in NCAA.

Of course he has more to prove, but this is about projecting. Every 40 goal scorer had to score 40 for the first time at some point.

Look at say, Pastrnak's progression. Took him 6 years to hit 40!

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And in the 19 games before that he had 1 goal.

1 goal on 71 shots in 19 games
18 goals on 75 shots in 21 games

Do you think he massively changed on 1 day? no. Sometimes you get good shooting luck. Sometimes bad.

Pasta didn't become a 40 goal scorer by magically doubling his shooting%.

Pasta's big increase in 16-17 into a was mostly fueled by 2 things. He got placed on PP1, and he was moved up to the top line.
That alone added 10-15 goals a year to his total. This is not an improvement caufield will see, since he has gotten PP1 time his whole career.


Outside of the PP, here is pasta EV. If you notice, his shooting% didn't all of a sudden spike to 25% to make him a top goal scorer. He generated more chances.
Additionally, he was moved up the lineup and given more ice time. Again, not something you will see for caufield considering he has been given this top ice time for the last.

You can hope to ride a shooting heater if you want. But if caufield wants to become an consistently elite scorer, he needs to figure out how to generate more chances. He was doing very well in 23-24 for chance generation. But this year has been the wrong way for that so far.

And if he wants to become an elite player, he needs to figure out how to not give up a ridiculous amount of chances the other way