Cole Caufield breaking out

[amnesiac]

and the previous 18 games he had scored only 1 goal.

but you concluded based on those 18 games, that caufield is breaking out. if anyone concluded on the previous 18 games that caufield is already regressing at a very young age, you would have rightfully laughed about it.

certain stats are heavily fluctuating. the smaller the sample size the less reliable are the conclusions you can get from those numbers. 18 game samples are basically noize. calling someone else dump because they don't like your interpretations of stats is what caused me to post. but next time i won't care to reply. i will just hit the report button.

"it's dumb" and "youre dumb" are 2 different things. Report all you want, man.

You can call an 18 game sample size irrelevant all you want too, its almost a 1/4 of a season. The kid scored well in his rookie and sophomore season, and needless to say, hes one of the promising young snipers in the league given what he did in NCAA. Just watch how he scores his goals.

And like the other hater in this thread, you can be that guy, a Hab hater who diminishes everything positive about the Habs. Enjoy.... You should try being a hockey fan first an appreciating talent when you see it, just as everyone else is here.

 

[Lshap]

View attachment 923335

Those are Caufield's stats from the previous 18 games before this "streak".

In the last 36 games, he has scored 10 goals, is this cause for concern?

How can you suggest people add some discussion to this thread and then literally add nothing? This is hilarious how triggered you are by someone showing stats.

"I suggest you either add something to this discussion or find other threads to vent your frustrations. There is no third option."

So your response to a thread about Caufield's last 18 games is to avoid those 18 games and post about an entirely different set of games.

You continue to post nonsense. Please stop.

 

[benfranklin]

There was a point last year where he crossed a threshold in his recovery from the shoulder surgery. The last 18 games should be considered more in line with what his abilities can be healthy. He could catch a rut in the ice and have his career ended in the next game. How long would he have produce like this before you rate him at this level?


And where was his shoulder strength wise in your first 13 games? Nuance in statistics is important

So April 2nd is the magical date his shoulder was 100%? From Feb 17th to Mar 30th, the shoulder was obviously still jacked up because he scored 1 goal in that timeframe. All the shoulder and not simply cold.

This whole thread is grasping at straws. Celebrate his 8 goals in 9 games and hot start. Dating back to last year just looks sad as a fanbase. He had a rough 23-24 season by his standards and turned it around at the end, took the offseason to work hard and recover and came out blazing. Good for him.

 

[TBF1972]

"it's dumb" and "youre dumb" are 2 different things. Report all you want, man.

You can call an 18 game sample size irrelevant all you want, its almost a 1/4 of a season. The kid scored well in his rookie and sophomore season, and needless to say, hes one of the promising young snipers in the league given what he did in NCAA. Just watch how see scores his goals.

And like the other hater in this thread, you can be that guy, a Hab hater who diminishes everything positive about the Habs. Enjoy.... You should try being a hockey fan first an appreciating talent when you see it, just as everyone else is here.

then lets discuss 1 goal in 18 games or 2.1 spct in april 24 and 4.1 spct in march 24. clearly the stats of an elite shooter. or is pointing out those stats just a hater post?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

He is pacing for ~240 shots, and with his normal shooting percentage, that is an amazing 30 goals (which is good for him).

Amazing, another cherrypicker who full expects his shooting percentsge to go down, but low and behold the 9 game HUUUUUGE sample trumps Caufield's usual average of 270-310 shots. The shooting percentage WILL go down, but there's no way he should pace higher for shot count!

The bias is clear when you apply a standard one stat (normalization), but a totally different one for another related stat (will stagnate).

 

[notbias]

Amazing, another cherrypicker who full expects his shooting percentsge to go down, but low and behold the 9 game HUUUUUGE sample trumps Caufield's usual average of 270-310 shots. The shooting percentage WILL go down, but there's no way he should pace higher for shot count!

The bias is clear when you apply a standard one stat (normalization), but a totally different one for another related stat (will stagnate).

310 * 12.8% = 40

So using your high guess on shots and his career average shooting %, he will hit 40, which is what I said he might hit.

You are a whiny bunch.

He might hit 40 this year, but this thread is premature, but at least Habs fans have come back down to earth about Hutson.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

310 * 12.8% = 40

So using your high guess on shots and his career average shooting %, he will hit 40, which is what I said he might hit.

You are a whiny bunch.

That's not his shooting percentage when he's 100% and not a rookie playing with a deadbeat coach.

The biggest sample since he broke out, without rehab from shoulder injury, is his first 83 games with St-Louis (just before surgery) where he had 48 goals in 83 consecutive games, on 272 shots, for a shooting% of 17.7%, as half-rookie, half-sophomore.

You are a biased and hateful bunch. It's readily apparent when -1 you use a double standard on stat normalization and 2- use his career shooting % as if a rookie and sophomore doesn't get better.

Finally, you should definitely change your username and make no mention of biases as you seem completely oblivious of your own.

 

[Bouboumaster]

With his normal shooting % and his shooting pace, he actually projects to be a 30 goal scorer, but please, hold on to this hope, you need it.

It was a joke you goofball

 

[notbias]

That's not his shooting percentage when he's 100% and not a rookie playing with a deadbeat coach.

The biggest sample since he broke out, without rehab from shoulder injury, is his first 83 games with St-Louis (just before surgery) where he had 48 goals in 83 consecutive games, on 272 shots, for a shooting% of 17.7%, as half-rookie, half-sophomore.

You are a biased and hateful bunch. It's readily apparent when -1 you use a double standard on stat normalization and 2- use his career shooting % as if a rookie and sophomore doesn't get better.

Why are you using his shots from when he had shoulder surgery if you aren't using that shooting %?

This whole thread is based on part of his season with his shoulder surgery.

You guys are hilarious, all excuses.

You have an ~82 game sample that you are saying is accurate, so why use this terrible sample?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Why are you using his shots from when he had shoulder surgery if you aren't using that shooting %?

This whole thread is based on part of his season with his shoulder surgery.

You guys are hilarious, all excuses.

You have an ~82 game sample that you are saying is accurate, so why use this terrible sample?

He had 272 in that 83 games sequence before surgery. He had 314 last year in 82 games and I wrote 270 to 310. Which is a range that encompasses his two biggest sample.

A player with his kinda shot just doesn't go from 17.7% to 7.3% (before his last 18 games) or from 48 goals in 83 gm to 20 in 73 games, without something causing that change. What he's shown in the last 18 games is that his shotis back to the standard of his first 83 games with MSL.

 

[amnesiac]

then lets discuss 1 goal in 18 games or 2.1 spct in april 24 and 4.1 spct in march 24. clearly the stats of an elite shooter. or is pointing out those stats just a hater post?

Why would I want to discuss his slump from a year ago? Its probably been done already by people like you. I mean, its clearly your agenda to do so because youre a Hab hater.

Once again, instead of acknowledging that hes one of the best young up and coming snipers int he game (as he was projected to be since his NCAA days), and focusing on how great hes looked so far this season, you CHOOSE to look at the negative ie. his slump BEFORE his current "streak".

Do you not see that YOU'RE the problem here? Constantly trying to diminish someone's positive simply because of the sweater he wears. Is this how you judge people in life too? Pointing out their past negatives because you cant stand seeing other people currently be happy for them? Sounds like jealousy to me!

Take some time to reflect, man.

 

[TBF1972]

Why would I want to discuss his slump from a year ago? Its probably been done already by people like you. I mean, its clearly your agenda to do so because youre a Hab hater.

Once again, instead of acknowledging that hes one of the best young up and coming snipers int he game (as he was projected to be since his NCAA days), and focusing on how great hes looked so far this season, you CHOOSE to look at the negative ie. his slump BEFORE his current "streak".

Do you not see that YOU'RE the problem here? Constantly trying to diminish someone's positive simply because of the sweater he wears. Is this how you judge people in life too? Pointing out their past negatives because you cant stand seeing other people currently be happy for them? Sounds like jealousy to me!

Take some time to reflect, man.

you call me a hater based on your bias.

i am not arguing cc's talents. i am arguing your window dressing approach with stats. but your bias is too strong to recognize it.

look up my post regarding hischier in this thread and you might get my point.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

you call me a hater based on your bias.

i am not arguing cc's talents. i am arguing your window dressing approach with stats. but your bias is too strong to recognize it.

look up my post regarding hischier in this thread and you might get my point.

Hischier isn't a prototypical sniper who previously maintained a 17.7 s% over 83 consecutive games before.

Your own approach is corporate takeover devaluation.

From the point MSL took over, up to his injury, CC had 48 goals in 83 games with a 17.7 s%. The present sequence just illustrates he's back to that form. It's not window dressing. It's his s% and goal scoring normalizing to what he can do when he's 100% or close to 100% (his shoulder nagged him in the last months of that 83 games sequence.

 

[Wayfarer13]

So April 2nd is the magical date his shoulder was 100%? From Feb 17th to Mar 30th, the shoulder was obviously still jacked up because he scored 1 goal in that timeframe. All the shoulder and not simply cold.

This whole thread is grasping at straws. Celebrate his 8 goals in 9 games and hot start. Dating back to last year just looks sad as a fanbase. He had a rough 23-24 season by his standards and turned it around at the end, took the offseason to work hard and recover and came out blazing. Good for him.

The healing period expected for that kind of surgery is expected to be what? The biggest thing from last year with him us we had no reports of reinjuring the shoulder. He is still early in his career to point to the lows and say that is his station.

 

[TBF1972]

Hischier isn't a prototypical sniper who previously maintained a 17.7 s% over 83 consecutive games before.

Your own approach is corporate takeover devaluation.

From the point MSL took over, up to his injury, CC had 48 goals in 83 games with a 17.7 s%. The present sequence just illustrates he's back to that form. It's not window dressing. It's his s% and goal scoring normalizing to what he can do when he's 100% or close to 100% (his shoulder nagged him in the last months of that 83 games sequence.

hischier career spct. 12.7
caufield career spct. 12.4

you won't convince me by excluding data from the sample size, just because you don't like them.

 

[LaP]

I'm not sure how sustainable his 31% shooting percentage is this year, but I'm here for it.

Non sustainable. Be he has 8 goals in 9 games. Even if you halve his shooting % he would still be at a 36 goals pace and 15% shooting % is sustainable for a season no problem. He should shot a bit more but he's 48th in the league for the number of shots among forwards so it's not like he needs to shot twice as much or something like that.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

A couple nights ago against Philly he blew a couple easy goals, or else he would have even sicker shooting stats.

He stays healthy I think he ends the season with 40+ no problem. Preseason I picked the Habs in the "team that will overachieve" thread (pre-Laine injury) because the team actually has multiple exciting offensive weapons, combined with solid goaltending of course. Point is, there is enough talent on the team to allow for a guy like Caufield to put up really nice goal totals. Habs aren't ready for showtime yet, but they aren't as far away as some people think either. It's a good situation for Caufield to thrive in.

 

[LaP]

hischier career spct. 12.7
caufield career spct. 12.4

you won't convince me by excluding data from the sample size, just because you don't like them.

Caufield average 3.34 shots a game (17:57 TOI - 3:11 PP)
Hischier average 2.45 shots a game (18:28 TOI - 2:50 PP)

You don't use shooting % alone to determine who is a good goal scorer. Ovy shooting % in career is 12.9%. Paul Byron is at 16.9%.

 

[Barrie22]

Last season, Caufield scored 28 goals with an unsustainably low 8.9 SH%.

League average is around 9-10% for shooting percentage, so its not an unsustainable low percentage.

 

[Kegs]

No matter how much we hate the habs we cannot deny this guys talent.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Caufield average 3.34 shots a game (17:57 TOI - 3:11 PP)
Hischier average 2.45 shots a game (18:28 TOI - 2:50 PP)

You don't use shooting % alone to determine who is a good goal scorer. Ovy shooting % in career is 12.9%. Paul Byron is at 16.9%.

In the last 3 years, Hischier has been averaging closer to 3 shots per game.

In that span at 5v5:

Hischier: 1.03 xG/60, 0.99 G/60
Caufield: 0.94 xG/60, 1.17 G/60

Caufield is definitely the better shooter, but Hischier has become a pretty dangerous goal scorer, especially considering his primary role as a shut down center.

 

[Lshap]

League average is around 9-10% for shooting percentage, so its not an unsustainable low percentage.

You don't measure an individual player by league averages. Check out the career SH% of top scorers - it's around 15%.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

League average is around 9-10% for shooting percentage, so its not an unsustainable low percentage.

For a guy like Caufield, it's definitely unsustainably low. That league average shooting percentage includes defenseman.

 

[LaP]

In the last 3 years, Hischier has been averaging closer to 3 shots per game.

In that span at 5v5:

Hischier: 1.03 xG/60, 0.99 G/60
Caufield: 0.94 xG/60, 1.17 G/60

Caufield is definitely the better shooter, but Hischier has become a pretty dangerous goal scorer, especially considering his primary role as a shut down center.

Yes cause Hischier has been in his prime for the last 3 years. Caufield is entering it you could see similar raise in his amount of shots.

For a guy like Caufield, it's definitely unsustainably low. That league average shooting percentage includes defenseman.

Are you saying Ben Chiarot is not a good goal scorer? Blasphemy.

 

[Essenege]

impressive but super small sample size and very unsustainable shooting %. Will probably finish around 40 goals unless he starts to put more pucks on net once his Shooting % stabilizes.

To answer your question, Stamkos scored 16 in 17 games from March 14th - April 17th last year. Not a super rare thing.

S% fluctuate but he has the shot quality to have 2-3 outlier seasons in his career around 18% (Matthews’ S% last year for example) which on 300 shots would yield 54 goals. With the start he has it could very well be one of those seasons.