Confirmed Signing with Link: [COL] G Mackenzie Blackwood signs extension with the Avalanche (5 years, $5.25M AAV)

[Luigi Lemieux]

To some degree. But people and players change.

I have no dog in this fight, but it does seem risky. Prior to this year he had 3 straight years of > 3.00 GAA and < .900 sv%. And the was with both the rebuilding Sharks or the 50+ win Devils. Just not much of a track record of being a reliable goalie. We'll see, could end up being a value contract or a complete dud and anchor.

 

[Fantomas]

Georgiev was .918 his first year with Colorado. I even remember Colorado fans saying they got the best goalie from New York lmao. They are the same age and have the same stats 0.906 vs 0.905

Except Georgiev got those stats mostly in Colorado. Tells you something?

 

[Richard88]

Did the Avs clean house in their pro scouting department recently? Because otherwise I'm not sure the argument "the Avs scouted this guy for quite some time before deciding he was their guy" holds water given their goaltending decisions post Varlamov.

Grubauer was good bang-for-buck with the Avs. And they also made the correct decision in not re-signing him.

Francouz was all-round excellent and cheap as a backup for the Avs, and even swept the Oilers in the WCF. The only downside was his injury record.

Kuemper won a cup. And they made the correct decision in walking away from him.

Georgiev was a success for 1 and a bit years. The mistake was sticking with him beyond the 2023/24 season, but that has been corrected now.

They also seem to have a good prospect in Nabokov coming over next season.

 

[karltonian]

Fair price and contract for a competent NHL starting goalie.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Solid deal for the avs

 

[Richard88]

Does it matter if we include the last few seasons, where his GSAx has hovered around 0?

Yes, I'd say that matters when we're talking about which goalies' AAV his should be compared to.

His GSAx is 16th in the league this season. It was 33nd the season before, and 66th the season before that. 108th the season before that.

Looks like he's trending up.

 

[Fantomas]

They also seem to have a good prospect in Nabokov coming over next season.

Nabokov coming over is the only thing giving me pause on this. But it's hard to say how long it'll take him to adjust.

 

[Tryblot]

As long as it doesn’t turn out as bad as the Binnington deal they’ll be fine.

Binnington was beating the avs until kadri did his thing. He's in contention to be the starter of team canada, lol, but go on.

 

[Breakers]

Why exactly are they rushing for this extension

LOL

 

[Romang67]

Looks like he's trending up.

Could be. Or he could be having one outlier season, and he's actually a replacement level goaltender.

That's what makes the contract weird. It would be very odd to see him get considerably more than this as an unrestricted free agent.

 

[Richard88]

Nabokov coming over is the only thing giving me pause on this. But it's hard to say how long it'll take him to adjust.

Wedgewood is signed for another year so in 2025/26 the Avs will have Blackwood and Wedgewood as their tandem, giving Nabokov a year in the AHL to adjust to NA ice.

Then in 2026 Wedgewood hits UFA and Nabokov can take over the backup role and eventually compete for the starting job as Blackwood nears the last couple of years of his deal. Seems like the perfect situation for a young goalie.

 

[Reality Czech]

As long as it doesn’t turn out as bad as the Binnington deal they’ll be fine.

Binnington is better than every Avs goalie since Roy.

 

[Goptor]

He's a good goalie and the amount is fine. A lot of his struggles in NJ was because he was injured, recovering from injury, or adjusting after returning from injury. 5 years is A LOT for someone that has barely been healthy his whole career. This last stretch in SJ has been the longest stretch he's played without injury. Colorado must feel confident he's over the injury issues since they signed him for so long.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Not to mention if they plan on making a serious run this year, not having to worry about that (for the organization and for Mac) probably helps.


I trust him more than i trust Hellebuyck come playoff time.

well that's a lot of trust to be given so quickly since its 5x

 

[CanadienShark]

Good for Blackwood!

 

[JKG33]

If he still has a .920 after 20 games I’d think he has the case to get a 6M contract.

Yea, and if he got it closer to .930 for the remainder of the season some team would give him $7m+.

This is a great contract for both sides. Contrary to what the spreadsheet jockeys say, Blackwood is a great goalie. And the Avs are a great situation for him. Real win/win type of deal

I would like to be a barely competent goaltender in the NHL these days. You get good money/contracts for being meh.

While history would say you're correct (Grubauer, Lehner, among others), I'm not sure what the context is for this contract

 

[Romang67]

Yea, and if he got it closer to .930 for the remainder of the season some team would give him $7m+.

This is a great contract for both sides. Contrary to what the spreadsheet jockeys say, Blackwood is a great goalie. And the Avs are a great situation for him. Real win/win type of deal


While history would say you're correct (Grubauer, Lehner, among others), I'm not sure what the context is for this contract

I'm seeing a fair bit of this. What is it based on? Where are the examples of single seasons of good goaltending in your late 20s resulting in top 10 contracts in the league?

 

[LOFIN]

Even if the worst case scenario happens (or Nabokov turns out to be the next Shesterkin), the fact that Blackwood only has a 6 team NTC doesn't make the contract totally unmoveable down the road.

 

[benfranklin]

Wow a bit soon. Number isnt bad so as long as he keeps playing well (4 games so far lol) then sure, great.

Probably couldve been done in the offseason though, no?

 

[bleedgreen]

Even if you wanted it done before the TDL….you’ve got a month or two there fellas. You’re allowed to use that time.

 

[benfranklin]

I know he isnt Shesterkin, but pretty crazy the difference between Igor and Blackwood is $6.25M. More than double the price!

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

 

[AvStock]

Cmac is a useless GM, could have just given this to Kuemper and not waste all this time and assets.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

What's wrong with calculations based on assumptions?

The assumption in GSAx is really just that the past reflects the future. If a shot from a certain area of the ice with certain puck movement before the shot often has resulted in goals in the past, it has a high chance of doing so here too. This thinking is why the cross-ice one-timer is so common on the PP.

The issue with calculations based on assumptions is that the results are only as good as the assumptions themselves. Unless you can prove your assumption to actually be true, the results will always be questionable at best.

 

[amikaro]

The more i look at that decision to sign him this long/high, the more I think this is a hoax.