Confirmed Trade: [COL/ARI] Darcy Kuemper ($1M ret.) for Connor Timmins, '22 1st, and '24 cond. 3rd

[Avs44]

Horrible management decision from Colorado. The difference between the two goaltenders isn’t worth losing Timmons and a first rounder.

Do they think they’re not going to have to pay Kuemper the same type money on an extension, or lose him for nothing?

Sakic blinked on this and it bit him.

Yeah, Sakic got caught with his pants down for the first time in a while. His mistake was letting the Grubauer negotiations drag on too long. From what LeBrun has said since, what happened is this:

- Sakic thought Grubauer would re-sign. Grubauer called his bluff and went for the extra 500-900k per year. (The Avs were offering 5 x 5, I think it was mentioned they might have upped their offer slightly just before Grubauer went to Seattle, but it wasn't enough).
- Sakic's plan B was Andersen and he had a deal lined up with him if Grubauer didn't re-sign. The Grubauer negotiations went on too long, however, so when free agency started Andersen and his agent decided to move on from the Avs and took the Canes' offer so that they wouldn't be caught looking foolish if Grubauer did re-sign in Colorado. So, Sakic lost his plan B before he had even heard back from Grubauer, who shortly after went to Seattle.
- Sakic's plan C was his 1st straight up for Kuemper, which was apparently the prize Arizona had agreed on. Unfortunately, Kenny Holland then swept in offering a 1st+prospect for Kuemper, so Sakic had to add in Timmins to get it done.

Arizona held firm and got what they wanted...+ it sounds like they were significantly helped by the fact that Holland is also absolutely desperate. Things kinda just unravelled quickly for Sakic given that all of the other free agent goalies he was looking at re-signed before or at the same time Grubauer got back to him. I think the big mistake from Sakic was not giving Grubauer a deadline before free agency started. He needed to know whether Gru was coming back or not before other goalies started signing.

That, and the fact that this organization 1) has a big aversion to actually drafting quality goalies, which means there is never anything in the pipeline, and 2) the fact that Sakic didn't go hunting for bigger game and pay the price to solve the goalie issue once and for all (Gibson).

 

[andora]

So you like the "Lehner" option?

I didnt qualify it because i believe vegas made their choice

I dont think would have traded their 2 million cheaper goalie

 

[S E P H]

I literally have no idea how GMs value goalies or do asset management. Fleury is free, let Grubauer walk, trade a 1st for Kuemper, Jones gets a 2M deal. What is this madness

Avs and their front office has to be the worst assessors of goalers in the league. Sakic pretty much knew that Francouz was going to be out for the entire season and yet gave Miska the back up job because of some sort of trust...then traded for Johansson who isn't really that amazing himself. Now Avs goaler system consists of an injury-prone Kuemper, an injury-prone Francouz, and Johansson lol.

 

[feffan]

No. Semantics is looking at some pointless benchmark like 100gp. Analysis is looking at names and thinking critically about it.

I went back ten years, and looked at that draft, and the three preceding it:

2008
8- Boedker
9- Bailey
10- Hodgson
11- Beach
12- Myers
--
28- Tikhonov
29- Leveille
30- McCollum
31- Markstrom
32- Voynov
--
73- Petrov
74- Campbell
75- Grachev
76- Brodeur
77- Hutchinson

2009
8- Glennie
9- Cowen
10- MPS
11- Ellis
12- CDH
--
28- Olsen
29- Ashton
30- Despres
31- Ferraro
32- O'Reilly
--
73- Urbom
74- Howse
75- Nestrasil
76- Bobkov
77- Hackett

2010
8- Burmistrov
9- Granlund
10- McIlrath
11- Campbell
12- Fowler
--
28- Coyle
29- Etem
30- Nelson
31- Pitlick
32- Knight
--
73- Leach
74- Gardiner
75- Sundher
76- Culek
77- Guptill

2011
8- Couturier
9- Hamilton
10- Brodin
11- Siemans
12- Murphy
--
28- Phillips
29- Jensen
30- Rakell
31- Musil
32- Rattie
--
73- Lowe
74- Ewanyk
75- Coleman
76- Shaw
77- Catenacci
---
2008 - The around 30 group is better than the around 10 group. The around 75 group generated nothing.
2009 - The around 30 group is tied with the around 10 group. The around 75 group generated nothing.
2010 - The around 30 group is better than the around 10 group. The around 75 group generated nothing.
2011 - The around 10 group was great. The around 75 group had Coleman. The around 75 group had nothing.

That´s not how that works. 4 years means nothing. And taking a such small group of picks proves nothing. You´re trying to hard to nitpick.

For funsies, take 2006, 2007, 2012 and 2013 in to the equation and a by a quick look u in the 70´s found Marchand, Clutterbuck, Killorn, Y Weber, Dadonov, Lindell, Gostisbehere, Chandler Stephenson, Guentzel, Buschnevich and in the late 1st basically Foligno, Brendan Smith, Pearson, Skeji, Theodore, Dano and Hartman. It´s almost as u picked your years and picks to fit a narrative...

Statistics threw the years (not 15 picks from a few years...) will show u that the worth of the 30th pick is closer to the 70th than the 30th is to 5-10th. You still have a much greater chance getting the greater player around 30 than 70. More than double so. But it´s still overvalued when u have an open window. Wich was the main point.

 

[rt]

That´s not how that works. 4 years means nothing. And taking a such small group of picks proves nothing. You´re trying to hard to nitpick.

For funsies, take 2006, 2007, 2012 and 2013 in to the equation and a by a quick look u in the 70´s found Marchand, Clutterbuck, Killorn, Y Weber, Dadonov, Lindell, Gostisbehere, Chandler Stephenson, Guentzel, Buschnevich and in the late 1st basically Foligno, Brendan Smith, Pearson, Skeji, Theodore, Dano and Hartman. It´s almost as u picked your years and picks to fit a narrative...

Statistics threw the years (not 15 picks from a few years...) will show u that the worth of the 30th pick is closer to the 70th than the 30th is to 5-10th. You still have a much greater chance getting the greater player around 30 than 70. More than double so. But it´s still overvalued when u have an open window. Wich was the main point.

So your argument is that my sample isn't big enough, and needs to include a bunch of cherry-picked, edge case, outliers so that the data has more integrity? LOL. I think we can be done with this. You're clearly not interested in actually talking about it.

 

[HyperX]

Holy crap did Sakic screw up this offseason...

What a horrible, utterly awful trade.

But I thought Sakic was a trade wizard!

 

[Black Kevin]

A late 1st and a 3rd pair guy with potential. That's not too bad, considering Kuemper was going to Edmonton. Also the salary retention allows Sakic to make other moves. I don't see why people are saying this is insane.

 

[tucker3434]

But I thought Sakic was a trade wizard!

Unless that 1st and Timmins turns into Byram, Girard, and Toews, I think he's still doing okay.

 

[SwivelSchwartz]

Good for Bill

 

[Snarky Coyote]

If Colorado wins the cup, no one is going to remember this, Sakic will be a hero and a wizard. If they make a run its still worth it. The overage on this was a 3rd D with upside prospect. AZ did well, but its not like the trade crippled the Avs. This is a trade where both teams can win. You will love Kuemper once you see him play and if everything clicks it may solve your goaltending issue for the next few years. Only way this blows up if he goes down with a major injury.

 

[McJedi]

A late 1st and a 3rd pair guy with potential. That's not too bad, considering Kuemper was going to Edmonton. Also the salary retention allows Sakic to make other moves. I don't see why people are saying this is insane.

Me either. Avs have some dumb fans. This wasn’t a bad deal for us. Avs solved their 1G dilemma with a potential upgrade on Grubs for $2.4mm less AAv in year 1 vs what Grubs makes in Seattle.

 

[McJedi]

Avs and their front office has to be the worst assessors of goalers in the league. Sakic pretty much knew that Francouz was going to be out for the entire season and yet gave Miska the back up job because of some sort of trust...then traded for Johansson who isn't really that amazing himself. Now Avs goaler system consists of an injury-prone Kuemper, an injury-prone Francouz, and Johansson lol.

Johansson played quite well in his chances for the Avs. He was much better than Buffalo said he’d be. They won the trade to acquire Grubs too.

 

[Avaholic29]

Me either. Avs have some dumb fans. This wasn’t a bad deal for us. Avs solved their 1G dilemma with a potential upgrade on Grubs for $2.4mm less AAv in year 1 vs what Grubs makes in Seattle.

And what have we done with the saved cap space? Nothing. I’ll eat my words if we get a top 6 forward.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

A late 1st and a 3rd pair guy with potential. That's not too bad, considering Kuemper was going to Edmonton. Also the salary retention allows Sakic to make other moves. I don't see why people are saying this is insane.

It’s not insane but it’s certainly the first time Sakic got caught with his pants down. He made his team better which ultimately is all that matters from a Colorado perspective but he was certainly taken advantage of value wise. If this was a few days before UFA I don’t think he would have had to give up Timmins but Armstrong new Sakic was out of options and took advantage. Great job by Armstrong.

Timmins was a high end prospect and looked promising in the playoffs playing mostly mistake free hockey. Don’t let his 0 goals and 7 total assists in 45 career games fool you. I think he’ll be a good one assuming he doesn’t take another knock in the dome.

 

[McJedi]

And what have we done with the saved cap space? Nothing. I’ll eat my words if we get a top 6 forward.

I’d after spend it on defensive RHD to PK. Get someone like Demurs on a one year deal. I’d definitely sign Tatar for 1 year if he’s game.

 

[McJedi]

It’s not insane but it’s certainly the first time Sakic got caught with his pants down. He made his team better which ultimately is all that matters from a Colorado perspective but he was certainly taken advantage of value wise. If this was a few days before UFA I don’t think he would have had to give up Timmins but Armstrong new Sakic was out of options and took advantage. Great job by Armstrong.

Timmins was a high end prospect and looked promising in the playoffs playing mostly mistake free hockey. Don’t let his 0 goals and 7 total assists in 45 career games fool you. I think he’ll be a good one assuming he doesn’t take another knock in the dome.

And you’re willing to make that final assumption?

 

[VikingAv]

I’d after spend it on defensive RHD to PK. Get someone like Demurs on a one year deal. I’d definitely sign Tatar for 1 year if he’s game.

I got a feeling they're banking on McKeown to be that guy. Would also like them to sign a Demers to a cheap, one-year deal, though. Everyone and their grandmother knows we need insurance on that right side.

 

[bleedgreen]

It’s not insane but it’s certainly the first time Sakic got caught with his pants down. He made his team better which ultimately is all that matters from a Colorado perspective but he was certainly taken advantage of value wise. If this was a few days before UFA I don’t think he would have had to give up Timmins but Armstrong new Sakic was out of options and took advantage. Great job by Armstrong.

Timmins was a high end prospect and looked promising in the playoffs playing mostly mistake free hockey. Don’t let his 0 goals and 7 total assists in 45 career games fool you. I think he’ll be a good one assuming he doesn’t take another knock in the dome.

I doubt he got caught with his pants down. The price was likely the same the whole time which is why it became the last option, and why no one else had gotten him yet. I doubt like you say the price was cheaper before free agency. There’s been rumors for a year the price was set high by AZ.

 

[Chrisinroch]

Avs and their front office has to be the worst assessors of goalers in the league. Sakic pretty much knew that Francouz was going to be out for the entire season and yet gave Miska the back up job because of some sort of trust...then traded for Johansson who isn't really that amazing himself. Now Avs goaler system consists of an injury-prone Kuemper, an injury-prone Francouz, and Johansson lol.

And you forgot… signed Dubnyk for a stretch run to the playoffs.

 

[EastVillageBlues]

I doubt he got caught with his pants down. The price was likely the same the whole time which is why it became the last option, and why no one else had gotten him yet. I doubt like you say the price was cheaper before free agency. There’s been rumors for a year the price was set high by AZ.

Kuemper is a good goaltender.

But one year of him is not worth a highly touted prospect + a first rounder.

There must have been some other factor, such as time pressure on Sackic. Or as most speculated, that he never expected to have to make this move.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Horrible management decision from Colorado. The difference between the two goaltenders isn’t worth losing Timmons and a first rounder.

Do they think they’re not going to have to pay Kuemper the same type money on an extension, or lose him for nothing?

Sakic blinked on this and it bit him.

The Avs dont view the as similar goalies. Actually it sounds like an increasing number of people around the league have wondered whether Grubauer is really a starter level goalie for a while now... Or if its just been the Avs defense making him look good the last couple years.


Kuemper on the other hand is no doubt a Starter, the questions on him surround his health but if he's healthy this year I dont think it'll be much of a debate, Kuemper will put up Vezina type number in Colorado.

 

[avsfan9]

Kuemper is a good goaltender.

But one year of him is not worth a highly touted prospect + a first rounder.

There must have been some other factor, such as time pressure on Sackic. Or as most speculated, that he never expected to have to make this move.

Sakic maybe plans on resigning him?

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

That will be part of the next 50/50 raffle. Instead of getting cash, one lucky fan will get to be starting goalie.

I mean, it’s already been proven a Zamboni driver can win an NHL game. Though not every team is the Leafs.

 

[EastVillageBlues]

Sakic maybe plans on resigning him?

If that's the case, then it would have been a sign and trade.

 

[avsfan9]

If that's the case, then it would have been a sign and trade.

Probably wants to see what he’s got before locking him up. If he stays healthy and plays well I can see Sakic giving him a 4 year deal