"Clutch" Goaltenders

[pm88]

guys like Lundqvist, Price and Quick come to mind for me

 

[Doctyl]

Doctor No, do you think you could make a chart for Mike Richter

 

[Doctor No]

You bet! Here's Mike Richter:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|76|41|33|0.909|0.890|+0.56
Can Eliminate|14|9|5|0.900|0.894|+0.19
Can be Eliminated|7|3|4|0.872|0.882|-0.30
Mutual Elimination|2|2|0|0.952|0.892|+1.80

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

Some sample size concerns there...And Richter's game sevens:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
5/27/1994 vs. New Jersey|W|2-1 2OT|32|28.4|31
6/14/1994 vs. Vancouver|W|3-2|30|26.9|28

I was watching the second game at Pacific Coliseum.

 

[Yurog]

Henrik Lundqvist:
May 13, 2013: 35 saves, Game 7 win
May 13, 2014: 35 saves, Game 7 win
May 13, 2015: 35 saves, Game 7 win
@nyrangers

Holtby
5 series - 5 games #7

 

[Doctor No]

Lundqvist's statistics by game number of the series, because science:

Game 1: 11-8, 2.29 GAA, 91.9% SV, 1 ShO
Game 2: 5-13, 2.49 GAA, 91.4% SV, 1 ShO
Game 3: 9-9, 1.85 GAA, 93.0% SV, 3 ShO
Game 4: 10-8, 2.25 GAA, 92.6% SV, 1 ShO
Game 5: 6-9, 2.33 GAA, 91.8% SV, 0 ShO
Game 6: 5-5, 2.69 GAA, 91.2% SV, 2 ShO
Game 7: 6-1, 0.97 GAA, 96.6% SV, 1 ShO

 

[Doctor No]

Lundqvist's numbers will obviously look a little less spectacular now - although still quite good in Games Seven.

 

[Doctor No]

Adding Ryan Miller to the series performance list. This includes the strength of Miller's team and the opposing team, and (based solely on that) whether or not there was an upset.

Series | Result | Miller Team | Opponent | Upset?
2006 Philadelphia|W|0.582|-0.129|
2006 Ottawa|W|0.582|1.140|+
2006 Carolina|L|0.582|0.382|-
2007 NY Islanders|W|0.598|-0.109|
2007 NY Rangers|W|0.598|0.201|
2007 Ottawa|L|0.598|0.672|
2010 Boston|L|0.214|0.008|-
2011 Philadelphia|L|0.115|0.283|
2014 Chicago|L|0.634|0.598|-

Based on this metric, Miller won one series as the underdog (1-2 as an underdog), and lost three series as the favorite (3-3 as the favorite).

 

[JureEe]

how do you determine which team is underdog/favourite? i would imagine that kings and quick were underdogs in most of their elimination games. (at least on regular season results)

edit: and can you add kings opponent strenght chart?

 

[Doctor No]

how do you determine which team is underdog/favourite? i would imagine that kings and quick were underdogs in most of their elimination games. (at least on regular season results)

I use a simple rating system (defined as a schedule adjusted goal differential), including all regular-season and postseason games for the year in question. It's not perfect, but it's also reasonably unbiased.

edit: and can you add kings opponent strenght chart?

For Quick, or for whom?

 

[Doctor No]

I could conceivably do this for all teams and all seasons - I'll put that on the list.

 

[Doctor No]

Updating this - now with data back through 1971, and up through the first round this year. (I have 1968 through 1970 all but complete, if you're following along in the Game Logs thread, but not ready for here yet).

First, an update of post #3 in the thread:

The metric I prefer for this process is something that I've got on my site - S+/30. For every thirty shots faced by a goaltender (approximately one game), how many goals do they prevent (beyond an average goaltender)?

This also allows for more apples-to-apples comparisons between eras (for instance, if there were more mutual elimination games in the 1980s than today, we might see that save percentages dropped in those situations if we looked at raw totals).

On my site (and in my underlying data), one thing that I do is make an adjustment for playoff save percentages (generally) being higher than their regular season counterpart. So if you're comparing against post #3, that's the reason that the overall S+/30 values are now clustered around zero (since the overall comparison is playoff games).

Situation | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
No Elimination|0.905|0.905|-0.02
Can Eliminate|0.907|0.906|+0.03
Can be Eliminated|0.902|0.903|-0.05
Mutual Elimination|0.914|0.905|+0.28

I'll include the "standard save percentage caveat" here, which applies for all subsequent posts.

 

[Doctor No]

For now, I'll include the eight starting goaltenders remaining in the 2017 playoffs.

 

[Doctor No]

Henrik Lundqvist has the most storied playoff career of any remaining starters:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|122|59|61|0.923|0.916|+0.19
Can Eliminate|18|11|6|0.925|0.916|+0.27
Can be Eliminated|26|16|10|0.936|0.914|+0.66
Mutual Elimination|8|6|2|0.961|0.911|+1.50

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Lundqvist's mutual elimination games:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/28/2009 at Washington|L|1-2|24|22.0|22
4/26/2012 vs. Ottawa|W|2-1|26|23.9|25
5/12/2012 vs. Washington|W|2-1|23|21.1|22
5/13/2013 at Washington|W|5-0|35|31.7|35
4/30/2014 vs. Philadelphia|W|2-1|27|24.6|26
5/13/2014 at Pittsburgh|W|2-1|36|32.5|35
5/13/2015 vs. Washington|W|2-1 OT|36|33.0|35
5/29/2015 vs. Tampa Bay|L|0-2|25|22.7|23

 

[Doctor No]

Ottawa's Craig Anderson:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|33|16|16|0.931|0.915|+0.47
Can Eliminate|5|2|3|0.929|0.926|+0.09
Can be Eliminated|6|2|4|0.930|0.916|+0.44
Mutual Elimination|1|0|1|0.931|0.918|+0.40

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Anderson's mutual elimination game:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/26/2012 at NY Rangers|L|1-2|29|26.6|27

 

[Doctor No]

Washington's Braden Holtby:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|52|26|26|0.936|0.921|+0.44
Can Eliminate|14|4|10|0.931|0.922|+0.29
Can be Eliminated|8|4|4|0.930|0.920|+0.32
Mutual Elimination|5|2|3|0.921|0.920|+0.05

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Holtby's mutual elimination games:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/25/2012 at Boston|W|2-1 OT|32|29.2|31
5/12/2012 at NY Rangers|L|1-2|31|28.5|29
5/13/2013 vs. NY Rangers|L|0-5|27|25.1|22
4/27/2015 vs. NY Islanders|W|2-1|11|10.2|10
5/13/2015 at NY Rangers|L|1-2 OT|39|35.8|37

 

[Doctor No]

Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|105|57|46|0.908|0.916|-0.26
Can Eliminate|24|10|14|0.898|0.916|-0.54
Can be Eliminated|13|6|7|0.911|0.917|-0.16
Mutual Elimination|5|2|3|0.901|0.916|-0.46

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Fleury's mutual elimination games:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
5/13/2009 at Washington|W|6-2|21|19.3|19
6/12/2009 at Detroit|W|2-1|24|22.0|23
5/12/2010 vs. Montreal|L|2-5|13|11.8|9
4/27/2011 vs. Tampa Bay|L|0-1|23|21.0|22
5/13/2014 vs. NY Rangers|L|1-2|20|18.4|18

 

[Doctor No]

St. Louis' Jake Allen:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|17|7|6|0.928|0.920|+0.24
Can Eliminate|3|1|1|0.931|0.918|+0.37
Can be Eliminated|2|0|1|0.846|0.924|-2.34
Mutual Elimination||||||

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

 

[Doctor No]

Nashville's Pekka Rinne:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|52|26|26|0.917|0.918|-0.04
Can Eliminate|5|4|1|0.930|0.919|+0.34
Can be Eliminated|10|5|5|0.900|0.920|-0.59
Mutual Elimination|2|1|1|0.905|0.920|-0.44

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Rinne's mutual elimination games:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/27/2016 at Anaheim|W|2-1|37|34.1|36
5/12/2016 at San Jose|L|0-5|26|23.8|21

 

[Doctor No]

Anaheim's John Gibson:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|10|5|4|0.918|0.925|-0.21
Can Eliminate|3|1|2|0.910|0.926|-0.48
Can be Eliminated|1|0|1|0.778|0.925|-4.42
Mutual Elimination|1|0|1|0.778|0.925|-4.42

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Gibson's mutual elimination game:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
5/16/2014 vs. Los Angeles|L|2-6|18|16.7|14

 

[Doctor No]

Last but certainly not least, Edmonton's Cam Talbot:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|8|4|3|0.921|0.932|-0.31
Can Eliminate|3|1|1|0.927|0.926|+0.02
Can be Eliminated||||||
Mutual Elimination||||||

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

 

[Doctor No]

More caveats (aside from "save percentage").

Sample size - some of these are obviously very low.

The 2017 "expected" values will continue to move a bit, as this year's playoff environment continues to settle. These are values as of right now.

 

[Doctor No]

Anaheim's John Gibson:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|10|5|4|0.918|0.925|-0.21
Can Eliminate|3|1|2|0.910|0.926|-0.48
Can be Eliminated|1|0|1|0.778|0.925|-4.42
Mutual Elimination|1|0|1|0.778|0.925|-4.42

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Gibson's mutual elimination game:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
5/16/2014 vs. Los Angeles|L|2-6|18|16.7|14

Last but certainly not least, Edmonton's Cam Talbot:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|8|4|3|0.921|0.932|-0.31
Can Eliminate|3|1|1|0.927|0.926|+0.02
Can be Eliminated||||||
Mutual Elimination||||||

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

Gibson and Talbot are going to get a chance at more Games Seven!

(Although Talbot has no Game Seven experience in the NHL, he was 3-0 last May with Team Canada in mutual-elimination games, against Sweden, the United States, and Finland).

 

[morehockeystats]

Gibson and Talbot are going to get a chance at more Games Seven!

(Although Talbot has no Game Seven experience in the NHL, he was 3-0 last May with Team Canada in mutual-elimination games, against Sweden, the United States, and Finland).

Oh, come on, comparing IIHF WC to the Stanley Cup playoffs!

 

[Doctor No]

As all good goaltenders do, I'm stretching.

 

[Pharrell Williams]

fleury