"Clutch" Goaltenders

[Doctor No]

Absolutely! I think that you could use a goaltender's save percentage as the expected value (although my impression is that if you do, most goaltenders will center around average, since they're being measured against their own body of work).

In a sense, I do this when looking at the elimination games, because the hypothesis test I run says "has this goaltender demonstrated performance above (or below) their overall body of playoff work?".

I'll run Potvin in the next post (assuming that someone doesn't sneak a post in between ).

 

[Doctor No]

Always been a Felix Potvin fan - when I started my website, he was one of the most compelling goalies in the league, so I spent a lot of time on his page initially.

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|72|35|37|0.911|0.894|+0.50
Can Eliminate|12|5|7|0.899|0.889|+0.29
Can be Eliminated|16|10|6|0.924|0.896|+0.84
Mutual Elimination|7|3|4|0.896|0.888|+0.23

(Unlike the above table, these results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

Nothing statistically significant here - Potvin was pretty good in the playoffs in all situations. (Note a small difference between Potvin's official playoff save percentage of 0.910 and what my game-by-game logs produce of 0.911. Anyone interested in tracking down the error in my game logs - in the link above - would get some good karma and my gratitude ).

Here are Potvin's game sevens:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
5/1/1993 at Detroit|W|4-3 OT|27|23.4|24
5/15/1993 vs. St. Louis|W|6-0|25|22.2|25
5/29/1993 at Los Angeles|L|4-5|26|23.0|21
5/14/1994 vs. San Jose|W|4-2|31|27.3|29
5/19/1995 at Chicago|L|2-5|32|28.7|28
5/9/2001 at Colorado|L|1-5|35|31.2|31
4/29/2002 at Colorado|L|0-4|26|23.6|23

Lotta 1993 in that table. I'll do series-level results in the next post.

 

[Doctor No]

Potvin series by series:

Series | Result | Potvin Team | Opponent | Upset?
1993 Detroit|W|0.47|0.98|+
1993 St. Louis|W|0.47|0.03|
1993 Los Angeles|L|0.47|-0.02|-
1994 Chicago|W|0.34|0.07|
1994 San Jose|W|0.34|-0.20|
1994 Vancouver|L|0.34|0.22|-
1995 Chicago|L|-0.14|0.76|
1996 St. Louis|L|-0.18|-0.25|-
2001 Detroit|W|0.28|0.60|+
2001 Colorado|L|0.28|1.10|
2002 Colorado|L|0.31|0.55|

Two up, and three down.

 

[Ruzicka38]

Can you do Tim Thomas?

 

[Doctor No]

Can you do Tim Thomas?

Most definitely - here's Tim Thomas:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|51|29|21|0.933|0.910|+0.67
Can Eliminate|10|5|5|0.927|0.911|+0.47
Can be Eliminated|12|9|3|0.936|0.909|+0.81
Mutual Elimination|6|3|3|0.934|0.911|+0.69

(Unlike the above table, these results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

The most interesting thing I see here? In games where *only* Thomas can be eliminated (and not his opponent), Thomas is a perfect 9-0 in his career.

Here are Thomas' game sevens:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/21/2008 at Montreal|L|0-5|35|31.4|30
5/14/2009 vs. Carolina|L|2-3 OT|37|33.9|34
4/27/2011 vs. Montreal|W|4-3 OT|37|34.0|34
5/27/2011 vs. Tampa Bay|W|1-0|24|21.8|24
6/15/2011 at Vancouver|W|4-0|37|33.7|37
4/25/2012 vs. Washington|L|1-2 OT|27|24.6|25

Great results in 2011, to be sure. I'll do series-level results in the next post.

 

[Doctor No]

Thomas series by series:

Series | Result | Thomas Team | Opponent | Upset?
2008 Montreal|L|-0.25|0.24|
2009 Montreal|W|0.89|-0.09|
2009 Carolina|L|0.89|0.07|-
2011 Montreal|W|0.75|0.09|
2011 Philadelphia|W|0.75|0.28|
2011 Tampa Bay|W|0.75|0.24|
2011 Vancouver|W|0.75|0.65|
2012 Washington|L|0.66|-0.07|-

I didn't include his 2014 action at all (my choice).

No upsets, and two (pretty clear) upsetted.

 

[Caeldan]

Is there anything statistically relevant about how it seems that in 'Can Eliminate' situations it seems that most goaltenders drop compared to the All Games average?

Or is that just 'score effects'?

 

[Doctor No]

Is there anything statistically relevant about how it seems that in 'Can Eliminate' situations it seems that most goaltenders drop compared to the All Games average?

Or is that just 'score effects'?

The overall effect is slightly in the opposite direction:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=87585359

I've thought about whether score effects are influencing this; the differences are small enough that it's not a huge deal.

 

[Doctor No]

I'll put this in two places - here and in the hot/cold thread in the History forum.

All of these numbers are based upon how many standard deviations better (or worse) a goaltender does than expected, given the number of shots faced, the shooting percentage of the opponent, and the relative environment of the playoffs compared to the regular season. Remember that these are just numbers, and that numbers should represent the start of the conversation, not the end of the conversation.

With that out of the way...

Beginning in 1979, these are the top twenty-five performances by an NHL goaltender in a mutual elimination game:

## | Goalie | Date | Opponent | Saves | Shots | Outcome | Z-Score
1| Kelly Hrudey |04/18/1987|Washington|73|75|3-2 (4OT)|2.15
2| Ken Wregget |04/29/1989|Pittsburgh|39|40|4-1|2.02
3| Tim Thomas |06/15/2011|Vancouver|37|37|4-0|1.92
4| Henrik Lundqvist |05/13/2013|Washington|35|35|5-0|1.91
5| Ken Wregget |05/18/1995|Washington|33|33|3-0|1.88
6| Kirk McLean |04/30/1992|Winnipeg|33|33|5-0|1.86
7| Jaroslav Halak |04/28/2010|Washington|41|42|2-1|1.85
8| John Vanbiesbrouck |06/01/1996|Pittsburgh|39|40|3-1|1.83
9| Dwayne Roloson |04/27/2011|Pittsburgh|36|36|1-0|1.79
10| Glen Hanlon |05/03/1987|Toronto|30|30|3-0|1.78
11| Bill Smith |04/16/1985|Washington|39|40|2-1|1.75
12| Curtis Joseph |05/04/1998|Colorado|31|31|4-0|1.71
13| Patrick Roy |05/15/2002|San Jose|27|27|1-0|1.70
14| Frank Pietrangelo |04/15/1991|New Jersey|27|27|4-0|1.69
15| Felix Potvin |05/15/1993|St. Louis|25|25|6-0|1.65
16| Ben Bishop |04/29/2015|Detroit|31|31|2-0|1.63
17| Grant Fuhr |05/04/1999|Phoenix|35|35|1-0 (OT)|1.63
18| Guy Hebert |04/29/1997|Phoenix|31|31|3-0|1.61
19| Jon Casey |05/16/1996|Detroit|39|40|0-1 (2OT)|1.61
20| Steve Penney |04/16/1985|Boston|20|20|1-0|1.59
21| Jose Theodore |04/17/2004|Boston|32|32|2-0|1.51
22| Tim Thomas |05/27/2011|Tampa Bay|24|24|1-0|1.50
23| Patrick Roy |04/29/2002|Los Angeles|23|23|4-0|1.45
24| Carey Price |04/21/2008|Boston|25|25|5-0|1.45
25| Pat Riggin |04/26/1981|Philadelphia|31|32|4-1|1.44

Ben Bishop comes in at #16 overall.

And here are the top twenty-five *worst* performances by an NHL goaltender in a mutual elimination game (since 1979):

## | Goalie | Date | Opponent | Saves | Shots | Outcome | Z-Score
270| Curtis Joseph |05/15/1993|Toronto|30|36|0-6|-1.46
271| Arturs Irbe |05/14/1994|Toronto|17|21|2-4|-1.54
272| Don Beaupre |04/15/1986|St. Louis|22|27|3-6|-1.57
273| Felix Potvin |05/29/1993|Los Angeles|21|26|4-5|-1.57
274| Mario Gosselin |04/16/1985|Buffalo|18|23|6-5|-1.59
275| Patrick Roy |04/29/1994|Boston|26|31|3-5|-1.69
276| Corey Crawford |06/01/2014|Los Angeles|27|32|4-5 (OT)|-1.75
277| Semyon Varlamov |05/13/2009|Pittsburgh|14|18|2-6|-1.83
278| James Reimer |05/13/2013|Boston|30|35|4-5 (OT)|-1.84
279| Vincent Riendeau |04/30/1990|Chicago|11|15|2-8|-2.01
280| Patrick Lalime |04/20/2004|Toronto|8|11|1-4|-2.16
281| Curtis Joseph |04/30/1990|Chicago|10|14|2-8|-2.18
282| Grant Fuhr |04/13/1982|Los Angeles|24|31|4-7|-2.21
283| Christopher Terreri |05/01/1992|NY Rangers|22|29|4-8|-2.27
284| Ed Belfour |04/22/2003|Philadelphia|30|36|1-6|-2.29
285| Braden Holtby |05/13/2013|NY Rangers|22|27|0-5|-2.29
286| Curtis Joseph |05/09/2001|New Jersey|15|20|1-5|-2.33
287| John Gibson |05/16/2014|Los Angeles|14|18|2-6|-2.38
288| Martin Brodeur |05/04/1999|Pittsburgh|9|13|2-4|-2.45
289| Patrick Roy |05/04/1998|Edmonton|13|17|0-4|-2.49
290| Dan Cloutier |05/08/2003|Minnesota|12|16|2-4|-2.56
291| Andy Moog |04/22/1984|Calgary|6|9|7-4|-2.61
292| Marc-Andre Fleury |05/12/2010|Montreal|9|13|2-5|-2.78
293| Gary Bromley |04/14/1979|Philadelphia|21|28|2-7|-2.99
294| Patrick Roy |05/31/2002|Detroit|10|16|0-7|-4.25

As always, typos are my own, and errors are a part of my database, so any corrections would be most welcome.

 

[Doctor No]

Difficult to argue with the "best best" performance, or with the "worst worst" performance...

 

[wgknestrick]

Where is MAF?

 

[Doctor No]

Fleury's got five (out of the 294 on my list):

• 83rd: June 12, 2009 (2-1 win, 23 saves on 24 shots). Z = 0.76
• 85th: April 27, 2011 (0-1 loss, 22 saves on 23 shots). Z = 0.72
• 187th: May 13, 2009 (6-2 win, 19 saves on 21 shots). Z = -0.21
• 204th: May 13, 2014 (1-2 loss, 18 saves on 20 shots). Z = -0.37
• 292nd: May 12, 2010 (2-5 loss, 9 saves on 13 shots). Z = -2.78

 

[seekritdude]

I'll put this in two places - here and in the hot/cold thread in the History forum.

All of these numbers are based upon how many standard deviations better (or worse) a goaltender does than expected, given the number of shots faced, the shooting percentage of the opponent, and the relative environment of the playoffs compared to the regular season. Remember that these are just numbers, and that numbers should represent the start of the conversation, not the end of the conversation.

With that out of the way...

Beginning in 1979, these are the top twenty-five performances by an NHL goaltender in a mutual elimination game:

## | Goalie | Date | Opponent | Saves | Shots | Outcome | Z-Score
1| Kelly Hrudey |04/18/1987|Washington|73|75|3-2 (4OT)|2.15
2| Ken Wregget |04/29/1989|Pittsburgh|39|40|4-1|2.02
3| Tim Thomas |06/15/2011|Vancouver|37|37|4-0|1.92
4| Henrik Lundqvist |05/13/2013|Washington|35|35|5-0|1.91
5| Ken Wregget |05/18/1995|Washington|33|33|3-0|1.88
6| Kirk McLean |04/30/1992|Winnipeg|33|33|5-0|1.86
7| Jaroslav Halak |04/28/2010|Washington|41|42|2-1|1.85
8| John Vanbiesbrouck |06/01/1996|Pittsburgh|39|40|3-1|1.83
9| Dwayne Roloson |04/27/2011|Pittsburgh|36|36|1-0|1.79
10| Glen Hanlon |05/03/1987|Toronto|30|30|3-0|1.78
11| Bill Smith |04/16/1985|Washington|39|40|2-1|1.75
12| Curtis Joseph |05/04/1998|Colorado|31|31|4-0|1.71
13| Patrick Roy |05/15/2002|San Jose|27|27|1-0|1.70
14| Frank Pietrangelo |04/15/1991|New Jersey|27|27|4-0|1.69
15| Felix Potvin |05/15/1993|St. Louis|25|25|6-0|1.65
16| Ben Bishop |04/29/2015|Detroit|31|31|2-0|1.63
17| Grant Fuhr |05/04/1999|Phoenix|35|35|1-0 (OT)|1.63
18| Guy Hebert |04/29/1997|Phoenix|31|31|3-0|1.61
19| Jon Casey |05/16/1996|Detroit|39|40|0-1 (2OT)|1.61
20| Steve Penney |04/16/1985|Boston|20|20|1-0|1.59
21| Jose Theodore |04/17/2004|Boston|32|32|2-0|1.51
22| Tim Thomas |05/27/2011|Tampa Bay|24|24|1-0|1.50
23| Patrick Roy |04/29/2002|Los Angeles|23|23|4-0|1.45
24| Carey Price |04/21/2008|Boston|25|25|5-0|1.45
25| Pat Riggin |04/26/1981|Philadelphia|31|32|4-1|1.44

Ben Bishop comes in at #16 overall.

And here are the top twenty-five *worst* performances by an NHL goaltender in a mutual elimination game (since 1979):

## | Goalie | Date | Opponent | Saves | Shots | Outcome | Z-Score
270| Curtis Joseph |05/15/1993|Toronto|30|36|0-6|-1.46
271| Arturs Irbe |05/14/1994|Toronto|17|21|2-4|-1.54
272| Don Beaupre |04/15/1986|St. Louis|22|27|3-6|-1.57
273| Felix Potvin |05/29/1993|Los Angeles|21|26|4-5|-1.57
274| Mario Gosselin |04/16/1985|Buffalo|18|23|6-5|-1.59
275| Patrick Roy |04/29/1994|Boston|26|31|3-5|-1.69
276| Corey Crawford |06/01/2014|Los Angeles|27|32|4-5 (OT)|-1.75
277| Semyon Varlamov |05/13/2009|Pittsburgh|14|18|2-6|-1.83
278| James Reimer |05/13/2013|Boston|30|35|4-5 (OT)|-1.84
279| Vincent Riendeau |04/30/1990|Chicago|11|15|2-8|-2.01
280| Patrick Lalime |04/20/2004|Toronto|8|11|1-4|-2.16
281| Curtis Joseph |04/30/1990|Chicago|10|14|2-8|-2.18
282| Grant Fuhr |04/13/1982|Los Angeles|24|31|4-7|-2.21
283| Christopher Terreri |05/01/1992|NY Rangers|22|29|4-8|-2.27
284| Ed Belfour |04/22/2003|Philadelphia|30|36|1-6|-2.29
285| Braden Holtby |05/13/2013|NY Rangers|22|27|0-5|-2.29
286| Curtis Joseph |05/09/2001|New Jersey|15|20|1-5|-2.33
287| John Gibson |05/16/2014|Los Angeles|14|18|2-6|-2.38
288| Martin Brodeur |05/04/1999|Pittsburgh|9|13|2-4|-2.45
289| Patrick Roy |05/04/1998|Edmonton|13|17|0-4|-2.49
290| Dan Cloutier |05/08/2003|Minnesota|12|16|2-4|-2.56
291| Andy Moog |04/22/1984|Calgary|6|9|7-4|-2.61
292| Marc-Andre Fleury |05/12/2010|Montreal|9|13|2-5|-2.78
293| Gary Bromley |04/14/1979|Philadelphia|21|28|2-7|-2.99
294| Patrick Roy |05/31/2002|Detroit|10|16|0-7|-4.25

As always, typos are my own, and errors are a part of my database, so any corrections would be most welcome.

irbe stat is misleading since that I recall in that game, torontos goal was actually in a empty net, and not only that the sharks shot it into our own goal accidently as they were the last ones to touch the puck. Funny if you watch that year, I think there was 3 times? The sharks shot it into our own net that year lol

 

[Doctor No]

I would say that (essentially) all great, and all terrible, goaltending performances are team efforts (including Irbe's).

For instance, anyone watching the bottom game on the list would attribute the blame pretty heavily on every member of the Avalanche, not singling out Roy for extra credit.

I can't confirm this because, as an Avalanche fan, it's going to be awhile before I work up the stomach to watch the game a second time.

 

[wgknestrick]

I would say that (essentially) all great, and all terrible, goaltending performances are team efforts (including Irbe's).

For instance, anyone watching the bottom game on the list would attribute the blame pretty heavily on every member of the Avalanche, not singling out Roy for extra credit.

I can't confirm this because, as an Avalanche fan, it's going to be awhile before I work up the stomach to watch the game a second time.

I will argue that the team usually quits after the goaltender fluffs a goal or 2. I tend to call MAF, "First shot Fluery". If he lets the first or 2nd shot of the game in (which he tends to do quite often), the Pens team goes into ****mode.

It works both ways.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Hey Dr. No, I remember us talking about the Easter Epic when it was on NHL Classics a few months ago, and am not surprised that Hrudey appears at the top of the list for that game 7. Just wondering where Mason appears on the Z-score for stopping 54 of 57 at the other end of the ice that night. Wasn't a shutout or one goal game, so not too surprised he didn't make the list, but surely he was close.

 

[Doctor No]

I will argue that the team usually quits after the goaltender fluffs a goal or 2. I tend to call MAF, "First shot Fluery". If he lets the first or 2nd shot of the game in (which he tends to do quite often), the Pens team goes into ****mode.

It works both ways.

Very true - as a goaltender, it's pretty evident when you fluff one and everyone on the bench just puts their heads down. I seem to do that more and more these days.

 

[Doctor No]

Hey Dr. No, I remember us talking about the Easter Epic when it was on NHL Classics a few months ago, and am not surprised that Hrudey appears at the top of the list for that game 7. Just wondering where Mason appears on the Z-score for stopping 54 of 57 at the other end of the ice that night. Wasn't a shutout or one goal game, so not too surprised he didn't make the list, but surely he was close.

What a game! Such a treat to have the highlights of that on the NHL Network the other day - I had parts of it on an old VHS tape, but now I'll have it until I leave DirecTV for some reason.

Mason scores out at a z-score of +0.97, which would be 64th on the list of 294.

Immediately ahead of him is Sean Burke's performance against Washington in 1988 (3-2 win, 30 saves on 32 shots), and immediately behind him is Michel Dion's performance against the Islanders in 1982 (3-4 OT loss, 42 saves on 46 shots).

 

[Doctor No]

Adding Braden Holtby (through last night) via special request:

Situation | GP | W | L | Actual SV% | Expected SV% | S+/30
All Games|33|16|17|0.935|0.910|+0.75
Can Eliminate|9|2|7|0.918|0.910|+0.23
Can be Eliminated|5|3|2|0.924|0.910|+0.43
Mutual Elimination|4|2|2|0.911|0.910|+0.02

(These results form do not form a partition. Mutual Elimination games are included in all three "elimination" categories)

And Holtby's game sevens:

Game | Result | Score | Shots | Exp Saves | Actual Saves
4/25/2012 at Boston|W|2-1 OT|32|29.0|31
5/12/2012 at NY Rangers|L|1-2|31|28.2|29
5/13/2013 vs. NY Rangers|L|0-5|27|24.8|22
4/27/2015 vs. NY Islanders|W|2-1|11|10.1|10

 

[Michael Farkas]

On this front, vaguely, are there numbers (maybe you have them, Doc?) that address score/period vs. GAA/save pct. for goalies? Kind of like how the NHL site has "shots when tied/leading/trailing" does that exist for goalies?

 

[Doctor No]

On this front, vaguely, are there numbers (maybe you have them, Doc?) that address score/period vs. GAA/save pct. for goalies? Kind of like how the NHL site has "shots when tied/leading/trailing" does that exist for goalies?

I wish that I had this. Shots/saves by period would have been collectible when I started doing this back in 1994, but it wasn't something I had thought of. At this point, I'm hoping that it will be easy to parse out when the NHL releases all of their game sheets for their centennial.

For leading/trailing/tied, I think that someone could do it with the detailed game sheets online, although I don't know that anyone's tried it rigorously for more than a subset.

Both would be great to have. It's actually one of the main reasons that I focused on this definition of "clutch" (since there are many alternative definitions), since I had the data available.

 

[hatterson]

(Note a small difference between Potvin's official playoff save percentage of 0.910 and what my game-by-game logs produce of 0.911. Anyone interested in tracking down the error in my game logs - in the link above - would get some good karma and my gratitude ).

I found 4 games that don't seem to match the NHL.com totals for Potvin.

05/27/1993 against the Kings. You have the game as a 5-4 loss for Potvin in OT, but Potvin making 30 games on 34 shots (only 4 goals allowed). On his player sheet on NHL.com he's credited with 30 games on 35 shots.

05/14/1994 against the Sharks. You have him making 29 saves on 32 shots. NHL.com playersheet has him making 30 saves on 32 shots.

05/24/1994 against the Canucks. You have him making 42 saves on 46 shots. NHL.com playersheet has him making 43 saves on 47 shots.

05/17/1995 against the Blackhawks. You have him making 48 saves on 52 shots. NHL>com playersheet has him making 46 saves on 50 shots.

Overall your gamelogs have him at 1974 saves on 2168 shots (.910517) whereas the NHL.com gamelogs have him at 1974 saves on 2169 shots (.910097)

 

[Doctor No]

Mega thank you - this is awesome!

On these guys, my guess is that the NHL revised totals slightly after publishing the "final" sheets, and I took them and either went to bed or went off to hockey practice.

I'll double check and revise. Thanks!

 

[hatterson]

Just to note, I was using the nhl.com playersheet for all those numbers, not their published gamelogs (which I didn't have access to at the time).

It's also theoretically possible that the official game sheet doesn't match was Potvin was credited on his player sheet.

 

[Doctor No]

As I started the page in 1994, my guess is that for most of these, I was relying upon whatever papers were available at the WWU library. Certainly these had a lower error rate than what I'm currently working with (in the mid-1970s), but I guarantee that the error rate wasn't zero.