Player Discussion Chris Kreider

[RGY]

They are trying to climb into a playoff spot. Its important to everyone involved. If it wasnt, Kreider and Fast would have sat wednesday. Until Kreider is absolutely not re-signing then he will play. I mean think about this for a second...why risk Kreider getting hurt knowing you won’t be signing him at all? So he can play 2-3 more games and show a sign of good faith to the rest of the team? 2-3 games isnt going to say a heckuva lot to the team. I think there is a very real possibility he re-signs.

What I want though is for this to get done by Saturday. It gives Gorton and JD a chance to alter their gameplan and start to discuss other players in trades so they are not panicking or making a move in haste last minute on Monday. Strome, Buch, Skjei. All on the table. Fast too obviously. And I love Fast but I think he will want too much being that this his last contract during the prime of his career.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Because I think tonight would be the prime game to do it. Why do it tomorrow against San Jose? I mean if they are going to trade him.

There’s no guarantee they’re trading him.

 

[haohmaru]

@Edge has has hinted at what’s been discussed. Basically, the Rangers just aren’t prepared to offer 7’s in both categories. Draw from that what you will.

Ah, yes. Discussions, however, aren't offers. That being said, I think 50/50 that he stays but a lot of it is going to come down to how important the maximum $ is to Kreider and, equally, what other GM's are whispering into JG's ear. We probably won't know until Monday at 2:59

If I'm the Rangers, I'm not doing a 7x7 NMC or 8x7 NMC either - for both the term and the NMC. We'll see. I think he goes.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Ah, yes. Discussions, however, aren't offers. That being said, I think 50/50 that he stays but a lot of it is going to come down to how important the maximum $ is to Kreider and, equally, what other GM's are whispering into JG's ear. We probably won't know until Monday at 2:59

If I'm the Rangers, I'm not doing a 7x7 NMC or 8x7 NMC either - for both the term and the NMC. We'll see. I think he goes.

There may not be an official offer, but the parameters have been established.

If a deal gets done, I see one of the following sets of terms:

6 years, $41.1 million ($6.85 million AAV)

Or

7 years, $45.5 million ($6.45 million AAV)

 

[haohmaru]

Yeah, I don’t like those numbers for a 30+ year old Kreider coming off what likely will be the best year of his entire career.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Yeah, I don’t like those numbers for a 30+ year old Kreider coming off what likely will be the best year of his entire career.

I would do 6/40 for Kredier easily.

 

[haohmaru]

I would do 6/40 for Kredier easily.

Years 1-3 sure. 4-6 is what I’m worried about.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Years 1-3 sure. 4-6 is what I’m worried about.

Maybe I’m being optimistic, but year 6 is really my only concern.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Maybe I’m being optimistic, but year 6 is really my only concern.

I agree with this. I have the same reservations about that year as I did with Hank's last two years in his contract.

With that said, I can live with a single year of bad term.

 

[RGY]

Maybe I’m being optimistic, but year 6 is really my only concern.

I could live with year 5 as well.

And for me, I think he would have to be a cripple playing on the 3rd/4th line, missing time occasionally but not enough to be LTIR, for years 5 and 6 to be considered bad. I think that he could still be a useful player at that point. And at that same point, if needed for cap or roster space, they could likely move him with money retained. I think you can find a team that would be ok with an aav of say $4.5 for the remaining year or 2. The cap will increase, and $4.5 aav will not hold the same weight as it does today. $6.75-$7 wont either.

The economy would have to crash and/or the NHL would have to be a failing sport in which TV deals disappeared, etc., that a $7 million aav will be the same value in 4-6 years. And if that is the case, the Rangers certainly wont be the only team in trouble.

 

[Off Sides]

Forwards who were 33 in age based on their B day year, last season who put up 40 or more points.

I count 12,

How confident are we really that Kreider will at 33 put up even 40 points again?

Players who put up 40 or more points at age 34, I count 6.

NHL.com Stats

The chances of Kreider joining a select group of players who put up 40 or more points past age 32 is slim.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Even if Kreider loses some speed he’ll still retain his strength, net presence on the PP (even if it’s on the second unit), board battles and I think more importantly he’ll be useful defensively and making smart plays on the ice, an area where he has grown in recent seasons.

With all of his big game and playoff experience to boot you would have no problem trusting him in a reduced role, he would be the perfect veteran who’s a former 30 goal scorer on your lower lines, albeit with a bigger price tag but one you could live with as an effective player/leader/role model for a year or two (probably only 1) at the end of the deal.

I also think that’s it’s ok to go 5-6. 7 is tough

 

[duhmetreE]

Forwards who were 33 in age based on their B day year, last season who put up 40 or more points.

I count 12,

How confident are we really that Kreider will at 33 put up even 40 points again?

Players who put up 40 or more points at age 34, I count 6.

NHL.com Stats

Are you serious? So, only 33 matters? What about 34? 35? 36?

 

[Off Sides]

Are you serious? So, only 33 matters? What about 34? 35? 36?

Okay,

Last season

There were 6 forwards aged 34 or older who put up 40 or more points

Two age 35 or older

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Forwards who were 33 in age based on their B day year, last season who put up 40 or more points.

I count 12,

How confident are we really that Kreider will at 33 put up even 40 points again?

Players who put up 40 or more points at age 34, I count 6.

NHL.com Stats

The chances of Kreider joining a select group of players who put up 40 or more points past age 32 is slim.

"But Kreider is different" is what I keep hearing. Look, I want to be optimistic as well, but what are the odds of Kreider actually being the exception rather than the rule when it comes to this? I want to believe he can break the trend, but how likely is it? If they can sign him for 4 years, great. Anything more than that is just too risky in my opinion.

But that's what this debate has come to. Some people think Kreider "isn't like the others" and is the exception, while the other side of the spectrum thinks he will follow the trend we've seen in previous years. And I can understand advocating for keeping him long-term if you're convinced he will be as effective at age 33 as he has been at age 28. But that's where the 2 groups of people differ.

 

[duhmetreE]

Forwards who were 33 in age based on their B day year, last season who put up 40 or more points.

I count 12,

How confident are we really that Kreider will at 33 put up even 40 points again?

Players who put up 40 or more points at age 34, I count 6.

NHL.com Stats

The chances of Kreider joining a select group of players who put up 40 or more points past age 32 is slim.

and that's normal

 

[True Blue]

I'd say we're closer to Carolina.

Carolina also went pretty far last year, so to me that is a bit of a different animal. But we shall see. Certainly hope that you are closer to truth than I am.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

and that's normal

No of 33+ players hitting 40 points per season:

2019: 9
2018: 6
2017: 4
2016: 12
2015: 7
2014: 9
2013: NA
2012: 10
2011: 9
2010: 11
2009: 19
2008: 17
2007: 27
2006: 21

Since 2010 there have never been more than 12.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Forwards who were 33 in age based on their B day year, last season who put up 40 or more points.

I count 12,

How confident are we really that Kreider will at 33 put up even 40 points again?

Players who put up 40 or more points at age 34, I count 6.

NHL.com Stats

The chances of Kreider joining a select group of players who put up 40 or more points past age 32 is slim.

And how many of those 12 were guys who are or at one time were considered elite?

 

[NYSPORTS]

Would be nice if this didn’t come down to Monday. All this trade bait taking the ice tonight while it’s not business as usual behind the scenes.

 

[Off Sides]

"But Kreider is different" is what I keep hearing. Look, I want to be optimistic as well, but what are the odds of Kreider actually being the exception rather than the rule when it comes to this? I want to believe he can break the trend, but how likely is it? If they can sign him for 4 years, great. Anything more than that is just too risky in my opinion.

But that's what this debate has come to. Some people think Kreider "isn't like the others" and is the exception, while the other side of the spectrum thinks he will follow the trend we've seen in previous years. And I can understand advocating for keeping him long-term if you're convinced he will be as effective at age 33 as he has been at age 28. But that's where the 2 groups of people differ.

I agree, I think 4x8 is about the ideal contract, will they have to pay a premium beyond that to extend him? Just like with every other pure UFA contract, Yes.

Should they pay a huge premium beyond that to the tune of 6 or 7 years? No way. If they are actually offering him that already, I feel like this management group is going to have a difficult time getting over the same hump the last one had trouble getting over.

 

[NYRangers0723]

No of 33+ players hitting 40 points per season:

2019: 9
2018: 6
2017: 4
2016: 12
2015: 7
2014: 9
2013: NA
2012: 10
2011: 9
2010: 11
2009: 19
2008: 17
2007: 27
2006: 21

Since 2010 there have never been more than 12.

Ok..nobody is saying give him whatever he wants. I think even us who want to keep him preferably realize that he needs to take a shorter term and a little less money

 

[NYRangers0723]

I agree, I think 4x8 is about the ideal contract, will they have to pay a premium beyond that to extend him? Just like with every other pure UFA contract, Yes.

Should they pay a huge premium beyond that to the tune of 6 or 7 years? No way. If they are actually offering him that already, I feel like this management group is going to have a difficult time getting over the same hump the last one had trouble getting over.

6 years is the maximum I would go if he would accept 6.5 per. That’s a pretty fair deal

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Ok..nobody is saying give him whatever he wants. I think even us who want to keep him preferably realize that he needs to take a shorter term and a little less money

You're quoting the wrong post, I think but yeah. My point is exactly that. Someone called me out for being biased or whatever because I prefer to trade Kreider, but that's based on the assumption he won't sign a 4-year deal.

This is basically how I feel about the 4 options:

1. Kreider for 4 years
2. Trade at deadline
3. Kreider for 5+ years
4. Kreider walks as UFA

Option 4 was in response to someone on Twitter wanting to "self-rent Kreider" for a play off run this year and then letting him walk. I am all for keeping Kreider, but only for a certain amount of years.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

If Kreider's contract six years from now is the team's biggest headache, Gorton did an outstanding job.