Cholowski's Ceiling

[Steve Yzerlland]

Yes I would, I have never seen high-end ability in Chychrun. I don’t see him as a differencemaker. Cholo I think could become that.

All the "high end ability" Cholo has shown is in junior /college and in the preseason. Let him play 118 NHL games and then we will see who is better. Btw Chychrun was playing in the NHL @ 18 years old. He is still younger and isn't at his max. He could take steps to get better. You cant have it both ways, saying cholo only has potential but Chychrun is what he is as a player when was in the NHL at 18 is younger and is less green at the NHL level. Cholowski is trying to be an NHL player Chychrun is ALREADY an NHL player and can still grow.

 

[datsyukfan]

There's nothing in his game that indicates elite, but he is showing to be a solid all-around player. Reeks middle pairing to me. If we have to depend on this 20th overall pick to be our future #1, then I seriously doubt Wings are going to be an elite team any time soon.

His edge work and intelligence is what makes me think he’s got elite potential. Why do I care that he went 20th overall. Plenty of the best d-men in the league were drafted later than him in their draft

 

[datsyukfan]

All the "high end ability" Cholo has shown is in junior /college and in the preseason. Let him play 118 NHL games and then we will see who is better. Btw Chychrun was playing in the NHL @ 18 years old. He is still younger and isn't at his max. He could take steps to get better. You cant have it both ways, saying cholo only has potential but Chychrun is what he is as a player when was in the NHL at 18 is younger and is less green at the NHL level. Cholowski is trying to be an NHL player Chychrun is ALREADY an NHL player and can still grow.

Didn’t Luke Schenn play at 18? How did that work out. Some teams aren’t always right on when a kid should and shouldn’t be in the league

 

[Ezekial]

Didn’t Luke Schenn play at 18? How did that work out. Some teams aren’t always right on when a kid should and shouldn’t be in the league

19, played 21 mins a night as a rookie, too.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Didn’t Luke Schenn play at 18? How did that work out. Some teams aren’t always right on when a kid should and shouldn’t be in the league

So because Luke Schenn was a bust that means Cholowski is better than Chychrun? Because Cholowski had a few good preseason games?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

19, played 21 mins a night as a rookie, too.

All of our prospects are HOF bound.

 

[Shaman464]

My issues it they hyperbole. Instead of enjoying the first likely top 4 d-man drafted in Detroit in 2 decades, people are putting 'Norris caliber' on him. He's looked good in his first preseason, but pronouncements like that just are out of wack with reality. As I keep saying his ceiling is likely #3 anchoring a PP unit on a contending team. And that's not bad.

 

[Ezekial]

All of our prospects are HOF bound.

K?

Dope response to my statistic.

 

[Ezekial]

My issues it they hyperbole. Instead of enjoying the first likely top 4 d-man drafted in Detroit in 2 decades, people are putting 'Norris caliber' on him. He's looked good in his first preseason, but pronouncements like that just are out of wack with reality. As I keep saying his ceiling is likely #3 anchoring a PP unit on a contending team. And that's not bad.

You confuse ceiling with what the player actually tops out at. If that's your definition fine, but he could definitely be more than a 3 + PP specialist.

 

[datsyukfan]

So because Luke Schenn was a bust that means Cholowski is better than Chychrun? Because Cholowski had a few good preseason games?

Never said he is a bust or will be a bust, but also doesn’t mean he’s gonna be better than Cholowski because he was playing at 18 and Cholowski wasn’t

 

[SuperScript29]

Having watched some of the games, I have observed that Cholowski may not excel in a specific physical skill-set, but he seems to be above average in most areas. The one thing that does stick out is his IQ and positioning, often times this sets high end d-men from others. I genuinely think his ceiling is a top-pairing d-man, at worst a significant top-4.

 

[Henkka]

Never said he is a bust or will be a bust, but also doesn’t mean he’s gonna be better than Cholowski because he was playing at 18 and Cholowski wasn’t.

Yeah.

Some same kind of example would be Jay Bouwmeester vs. Duncan Keith.

Both were drafted 2002.

Bouwmeester debuted instantly at 2002-03, and Keith came in NHL for 2005-06 season. Later one won two Norrises and Conn Smythe.

 

[Shaman464]

You confuse ceiling with what the player actually tops out at. If that's your definition fine, but he could definitely be more than a 3 + PP specialist.

It depends on the player. AA’s ceiling is much higher than he’ll ever top out at most likely. I think cholos ceiling is likely going to be reached or at least he will be close and that’s not anywhere near Norris caliber.

 

[Ezekial]

It depends on the player. AA’s ceiling is much higher than he’ll ever top out at most likely. I think cholos ceiling is likely going to be reached or at least he will be close and that’s not anywhere near Norris caliber.

Yea, this is why I think ceiling talk is stupid. It's just bias and conjecture meeting up at Speculation Avenue to go party.
I don't think he's going to compete for a Norris, but I'm not about to say it's impossible. I'm not going to say the best he can be is a #3 and PP specialist.

But anyway in excited to watch him take on his next challenge, which imo, is the NHL.

 

[Henkka]

Seems like this "Norris"-term is problematic in the way I use it.

Norris Trophy, is awarded annually to the National Hockey League's top "defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position"

So this is the description for Norris Trophy winner. It's most commonly a defenceman, who plays most on special teams and has highest minutes on a team.

I use a term "Norris" for a defenceman who logs biggest minutes on special teams, PP or PK weighted, and plays also enough most on ES, so his minutes would be clearly team highest.

That's a "Norris" for me. Norris-usage is terminology I use with my friends. Defenceman used in all situations, and minute leader. Norris Trophy winners are usually defencemen from contenders in this same role, but there's "Norris" defencemen in almost in every team, which is used in all situations. It's the role terminology for me. Many think straight on that now we are winning trophies, and I don't mean that.

And what comes to preseason, Red Wings are already using Cholowski on this kind of role, as the only one of the kid group. Sulak and Hicketts are used only as ES+PK defencemen. Hronek and Saarijärvi as ES+PP defencemen. "Norris-usage" is like Cholowski, who is already used in all situations and plays also the highest minutes.

When Smith and Kindl came in the team, Smith was kept off from PP and Kindl never saw PK. Both were those "two-dimensionals" like this Hicketts/Sulak/Hronek/Saarijärvi -group. Cholowski is the first guy after Kronwall and Fischer who has potential to be "Norris", a defenceman used as a main guy in all three situations.

He is on that path, because they are already using him like so instead of anybody else. After first two games where he made a bunch of mistakes, last 2 games have been phenomenally better, and that shows very much about his ability to adapt and develop.

I said on the another topic, that Cholowski will be like Larkin of defence. Never sees AHL after the amateur try-out. Guy is too good.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, unfortunately the Norris has become a glorified Art Ross trophy for defenseman.

The ppg of the last 5 winners equates to 65 pts over a full season.

I don’t think Cholowski will hit that level of production, but if you meant to say he has the potential to be a top pairing guy who is really good in both ends and can log a ton of minutes, then I could see that.

 

[izlez]

All of this goes to show why I hate talk of "ceiling" so much.

Subban, Burns, and Keith all won Norris trophies recently.

None of them were drafted higher than Cholowski. Cholowski is more likely as of their draft days.

None of them were doing anything THAT special in their draft +2 years. Burns still didn't play the position. Cholowski has progressed nicely since his draft day. Can't really say Cholowski is less likely at this point than those guys that DID win the Norris trophy.

The BEST Cholowski could be is easily as good as those guys.

Ceilings are dumb.

 

[newfy]

All the "high end ability" Cholo has shown is in junior /college and in the preseason. Let him play 118 NHL games and then we will see who is better. Btw Chychrun was playing in the NHL @ 18 years old. He is still younger and isn't at his max. He could take steps to get better. You cant have it both ways, saying cholo only has potential but Chychrun is what he is as a player when was in the NHL at 18 is younger and is less green at the NHL level. Cholowski is trying to be an NHL player Chychrun is ALREADY an NHL player and can still grow.

Yeah but Chychrun is much more of a finished product. He doesnt have room to add muscle, hes been physically developed since he was 16. Everyone thought Chychrun was NHL ready at the draft, it was a matter of what his high end potential would be. He still has room to grow, but he doesnt have as much room as Cholowski does. Chychrun is solid, but the wings dont need a Chychrun. Cholowski has the potential to be more but is more risky, especially at the time of the draft

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Yeah, unfortunately the Norris has become a glorified Art Ross trophy for defenseman.

The ppg of the last 5 winners equates to 65 pts over a full season.

I don’t think Cholowski will hit that level of production, but if you meant to say he has the potential to be a top pairing guy who is really good in both ends and can log a ton of minutes, then I could see that.

Hedman deserved it last year, Burns deserved it the year before, Karlsson should have won the year before that, Karsson deserved it in 2015, and Keith deserved it in 2014.

It is not a glorified art ross for defensemen, come on now.

 

[Frk It]

Hedman deserved it last year, Burns deserved it the year before, Karlsson should have won the year before that, Karsson deserved it in 2015, and Keith deserved it in 2014.

It is not a glorified art ross for defensemen, come on now.

So it’s a coincidence the winner is almost always top 3 in points that year?

Weber, Pieterangelo, and Suter collectively having 0 Norris wins is a joke in my book. Weber should have won multiple times. They were at different points the best all around defenseman in the league for a little while.

I already know we’re gonna disagree on this, so I’ll try not to go too OT here.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Yeah but Chychrun is much more of a finished product. He doesnt have room to add muscle, hes been physically developed since he was 16. Everyone thought Chychrun was NHL ready at the draft, it was a matter of what his high end potential would be. He still has room to grow, but he doesnt have as much room as Cholowski does. Chychrun is solid, but the wings dont need a Chychrun. Cholowski has the potential to be more but is more risky, especially at the time of the draft

He is 20 years old and young don't get what you are saying?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

So it’s a coincidence the winner is almost always top 3 in points that year?

Weber, Pieterangelo, and Suter collectively having 0 Norris wins is a joke in my book. Weber should have won multiple times. They were at different points the best all around defenseman in the league for a little while.

I already know we’re gonna disagree on this, so I’ll try not to go too OT here.

None of those defensemen deserve a Norris except maybe Weber from Lidstrom’s last Norris win???

Also, Lidstrom was consistently in the top 5 points every year he won, was that because it was a glorified Art Ross for defensemen?

 

[Ezekial]

He is 20 years old and young don't get what you are saying?

One was way more physically developed at 18 is what they're saying. The other has closed the gap considerably the last 2 years.

 

[lomekian]

Exactly. If you go to every single teams board it's filled with over optimism about their own prospects. We all thought Pulkinen was Brett Hull. Jurco was Datsyuk 2.0. Jarnkrok was Zetterberg 2.0 and untouchable etc etc.Now after a few preseason games people are saying Cholowski has OEL in his game and a Norris caliber defenseman lol. And if you question that logic you are "negative".

That's exaggerating - people hoped that Pulks might become a budget latter day Brett Hull...and perhaps if this was still the 80s it might be. I never saw anyone even compare Jurco with Dats, given that they played different positions, different styles and had different physiques. I do agree that Jurco is the greatest disappointment of our recent forward prospects as he had an excellent toolbox and initially a steady progression and good attitude. Both effectiveness and mindset fell off a cliff after that back injury. Jarnkrok is the best comparison as he looked like a mini Z with less goalscoring talent, but stagnated.

And only 2 people out of everyone think Cholowski's ceiling is OEL or Norris. That said, this pre-season has made me raise my estimation of his ceiling from a #4 to a #2 - but this is of course dependent on him upping his defensive game. He certainly processes the game better than any D prospect we've had in 10-15 years bar perhaps Oullett, but skates far batter. At present he looks like a less robust version of Smith, but with the brain we all hoped smith might develop.

 

[Frk It]

None of those defensemen deserve a Norris except maybe Weber from Lidstrom’s last Norris win???

Also, Lidstrom was consistently in the top 5 points every year he won, was that because it was a glorified Art Ross for defensemen?

No, because Lidstrom was every bit as good defensively as he was offensively. Which is why he was so special.

We value different things, so we will agree to disagree. I remember we have very different viewpoints on Karlsson, from past conversations.

All good, probably best to discuss in another thread if you want to.