CHL/NCAA

[dirty12]

Everything is moving fast but there is little doubt the CHL is going to expect players to honour their contract and play their four years or risk loosing their school package.

And I really don't see the NCAA competing directly with the CHL for players but instead offering continuing development for the remaining 99% of players who do not sign a pro contract.

The NCAA D1 programs have resources and facilities better than most CHL / AHL and some NHL teams. Factor in all the intangibles including education, training, experience, NIL, etc and I doubt the kids will have any hesitation in choosing the NCAA route if offered.

Players that are guaranteed four years at signing might have to play all four years to not risk losing all of their education package. But a lot of players get a semester playing prior to the Christmas break and another after.

 

[Otto]

This is the truth imo. Prevailing wisdom is this is good for the players and maybe that’s true, but it also puts the OHL and the other leagues in a more precarious situation. Harder to convince a community to support a team that is at risk of losing its best players early, kids prioritizing ncaa over OHL so there’s less overall committment and loyalty to OHL communities and teams. You don’t want to see the league become basically the same thing as the ushl is, very good 16-18 year olds but all the best 19-20 year olds are all gone.

The best 19 year olds will be in the NHL, AHL ( pending new CBA) or the CHL. They won't be in the NCAA. Really the best 20 year olds are not necessarily in the CHL as it is now.

 

[RB76]

I still can’t see it.

This would be the projected pathway for the top players in the OHL if they choose that route:

16yo - play sparingly as a rookie. Only a small handful of players actually play meaningful top 9 and top 4 roles.
17yo - most likely middle 6 forward roles and maybe that 4-5 D-Man role
18yo - move to NCAA. Sit on the bench most games and that is even if you dress.
19yo - sophomore season in NCAA. Roll it back as if they were 17yo in the OHL. They play more but not a lot.

I don’t see how that is a positive trajectory for top players. The pure elite players that are drafted high in the NHL will remain in the OHL almost certainly. I see no reason why a player would leave the OHL early to sit in the stands as a rookie 18 year old. Even as a rookie 19 year old, at best they play middle 6 minutes up front or 4-5 D-Man minutes on the back end. They may as well continue their journey, play out their eligibility in the OHL, lock in their scholarship, and then decide what they want to do.

Remember, a CHL player can play 18 months of pro hockey provided they don’t sign and NHL deal and still access their scholarship. They cannot do that and play NCAA after. I believe the AHL contract and $$$ would exceed the limits allowed.

I can see a small handful of players decide to leave the OHL early simply because things aren’t going well for them. They don’t see themselves as having Pro prospects. They are scholastically inclined and simply decide it is better to just get that early jump on their career path at 19. But, that would be the exception, not the norm.

We already have numbers in place. Will a player that didn’t go CIS, decide to go NCAA? Not likely. School is school. Either they are the type that wants to get an education or not. On top of that, the CHL scholarship is good for trade schools and certificate programs etc. There are no DIV 1 Trade schools. Education in general is shifting away from traditional education to specialized programs. The CHL scholarship program is far more flexible than NCAA and it doesn’t REQUIRE them to play hockey to access it.

I think a lot of this angle presented is very over blown.

To me, the ONLY real question is will this new rule change open the door for more Americans to play CHL? I think less Canadians will play USHL but will the Americans make the shift? I think the USNTDP will still stay strong but players that don’t make that team will potentially report to their OHL team. That said, if the USHL suffers a bit, it may make it tougher for the USNTDP as well. We

Well said and I strongly agree ….the CHL is about developing your skills and learning what it takes to be a pro. Playing top minutes as an 18/19 yr old for most is IMO the best situation to prepare them to be able to potentially play in the NCAA as 20yr olds.

 

[Corso]

Well said and I strongly agree ….the CHL is about developing your skills and learning what it takes to be a pro. Playing top minutes as an 18/19 yr old for most is IMO the best situation to prepare them to be able to potentially play in the NCAA as 20yr olds.

What about if you can play top minuets as a 19 year old in the NCAA though? Then does the circumstances change and you would agree that the player should leave the OHL for the NCAA?

Look I understand that the majority of incoming freshman are 20 years of age, and this will continue for the foreseeable future. These are not the players you or the NCAA are concerned with, however. The OHL is going to have to figure out how to keep its top 18 and 19 year old players in the league; players that have the ability and can play top of the lineup roles in college.

Trust me, colleges are going to really really want those players.

I know the CHL is in talks with the NHL and PA to change the CHL transfer agreement to allow 19 year old players to play at least part of the season in the AHL. They are doing this because they know that the NCAA will becoming in hot for these players and the only way to stave that off is to encourage them to sign an E.L.C. In my opinion, this will be somewhat successful but you are going to lose some elite talent to the NCAA before their 20 or even 19 year old season, and possibly even in their D+1 season.

The OHL will get a huge influx of talent, at the expense of the USHL and BCHL but as a fan, you better prepare yourself for a younger league.

 

[Otto]

What about if you can play top minuets as a 19 year old in the NCAA though? Then does the circumstances change and you would agree that the player should leave the OHL for the NCAA?

Look I understand that the majority of incoming freshman are 20 years of age, and this will continue for the foreseeable future. These are not the players you or the NCAA are concerned with, however. The OHL is going to have to figure out how to keep its top 18 and 19 year old players in the league; players that have the ability and can play top of the lineup roles in college.

Trust me, colleges are going to really really want those players.

I know the CHL is in talks with the NHL and PA to change the CHL transfer agreement to allow 19 year old players to play at least part of the season in the AHL. They are doing this because they know that the NCAA will becoming in hot for these players and the only way to stave that off is to encourage them to sign an E.L.C. In my opinion, this will be somewhat successful but you are going to lose some elite talent to the NCAA before their 20 or even 19 year old season, and possibly even in their D+1 season.

The OHL will get a huge influx of talent, at the expense of the USHL and BCHL but as a fan, you better prepare yourself for a younger league.

No elite 19 year olds will be going to the NCAA

 

[OMG67]

What about if you can play top minuets as a 19 year old in the NCAA though? Then does the circumstances change and you would agree that the player should leave the OHL for the NCAA?

Look I understand that the majority of incoming freshman are 20 years of age, and this will continue for the foreseeable future. These are not the players you or the NCAA are concerned with, however. The OHL is going to have to figure out how to keep its top 18 and 19 year old players in the league; players that have the ability and can play top of the lineup roles in college.

Trust me, colleges are going to really really want those players.

I know the CHL is in talks with the NHL and PA to change the CHL transfer agreement to allow 19 year old players to play at least part of the season in the AHL. They are doing this because they know that the NCAA will becoming in hot for these players and the only way to stave that off is to encourage them to sign an E.L.C. In my opinion, this will be somewhat successful but you are going to lose some elite talent to the NCAA before their 20 or even 19 year old season, and possibly even in their D+1 season.

The OHL will get a huge influx of talent, at the expense of the USHL and BCHL but as a fan, you better prepare yourself for a younger league.

I really think you need to name the players so you can provide perspective.

Clearly players like Ritchie are not going NCAA. They have signed their ELC. All ELC players aren’t shifting over. Odds are also pretty good that any player that is drafted relatively early won’t shift to NCAA.

So, who profiles RIGHT NOW as a player in the OHL that shifts to the NCAA? Brad Gardiner? He is an unsigned 3rd round NHL pick. Cooper Foster? He is an unsigned NHL 6th round pick. Even Cooper Foster wouldn’t be leaving. Going to an unknown situation as a Freshman 19 year old? Why would that player leave? Is he simply giving up on his NHL dream? Does he figure he may as well start his education early and get an early jump on his non-hockey career? Not a chance in Hell. These players are not wired like that. They aren’t leaving unless they think leaving gives them a better chance of getting to the NHL. Why would Cooper Foster have left this year instead of playing his 19 year old season?

Porter Martone coming into this season is a late birthdate 18 year old so he was not eligible to be drafted with his peers. Same with Spence in Erie. Those guys are capable of playing in the NCAA and not riding the pine as 18 year olds. Are you suggesting those are the players we need to worry about?

Who exactly would be the candidate to leave at 18? None. No one that is capable of playing a role with their NCAA squad at 18 is leaving. They are the elite players in the OHL. They won’t leave early. Same with the 19 year olds. No reason to leave unless they simply give up on pro hockey and want to get an early jump on their education. Kids aren’t wired like that. To get where they have gotten, they need to be uber competitive. Theya ren’t giving up on anything at 18 or 19 when there is viable runway ahead of them with ZERO risk of losing out on options.

 

[Corso]

I really think you need to name the players so you can provide perspective.

Clearly players like Ritchie are not going NCAA. They have signed their ELC. All ELC players aren’t shifting over. Odds are also pretty good that any player that is drafted relatively early won’t shift to NCAA.

So, who profiles RIGHT NOW as a player in the OHL that shifts to the NCAA? Brad Gardiner? He is an unsigned 3rd round NHL pick. Cooper Foster? He is an unsigned NHL 6th round pick. Even Cooper Foster wouldn’t be leaving. Going to an unknown situation as a Freshman 19 year old? Why would that player leave? Is he simply giving up on his NHL dream? Does he figure he may as well start his education early and get an early jump on his non-hockey career? Not a chance in Hell. These players are not wired like that. They aren’t leaving unless they think leaving gives them a better chance of getting to the NHL. Why would Cooper Foster have left this year instead of playing his 19 year old season?

Porter Martone coming into this season is a late birthdate 18 year old so he was not eligible to be drafted with his peers. Same with Spence in Erie. Those guys are capable of playing in the NCAA and not riding the pine as 18 year olds. Are you suggesting those are the players we need to worry about?

Who exactly would be the candidate to leave at 18? None. No one that is capable of playing a role with their NCAA squad at 18 is leaving. They are the elite players in the OHL. They won’t leave early. Same with the 19 year olds. No reason to leave unless they simply give up on pro hockey and want to get an early jump on their education. Kids aren’t wired like that. To get where they have gotten, they need to be uber competitive. Theya ren’t giving up on anything at 18 or 19 when there is viable runway ahead of them with ZERO risk of losing out on options.

You are telling me that every draft eligible players this year will all come back to the OHL? You do not forsee any high end player making a jump to the NCAA before their 20 year old season. I don't know this for certain but I would most certainly bet that more than just a couple of schools are in contact with Ryan Roobroeck and he is a prime example of a player that may elect to play his draft year in the NCAA.

 

[OMG67]

You are telling me that every draft eligible players this year will all come back to the OHL? You do not forsee any high end player making a jump to the NCAA before their 20 year old season. I don't know this for certain but I would most certainly bet that more than just a couple of schools are in contact with Ryan Roobroeck and he is a prime example of a player that may elect to play his draft year in the NCAA.

Why would he? No one has put forth a valid reason for a player like that to do so. Why? Because he will get paid? No. He’s a Canadian and can’t collect American NIL $$$ because he is there on a student VISA. So he can go and play only 40 games while completing a full course load of University level classes for a year or two instead of 68 games plus playoffs without having to attend classes as a distraction?

I’m sorry but you have to do better than, “Do you think there will be nobody…” as if it is self explanatory. You have not presented any reason other than an assumption that it will happen just… because a school is in contact and wants him to play there. Let ne tell you something, sir. Schools were in contact with Roobroeck when he was 15. He chose to play OHL hockey, even in Niagara’s fishbowl of turmoil. What exactly is going to make him change course and play NCAA hockey in his draft year? The kid is poised to be a high NHL pick, almost certainly a 1st round pick. So, he is going to switch course and go play as a freshman rookie in an older league that plays 40% less games?

The player needs to really want to take a full course load of classes while playing high level hockey. Some kids do want that, yes. But, given the choice now of not having to do that and delaying their education and being allowed to focus solely on hockey until they are 19/20 without worry about closing doors on education options, rather doors are more open now, you think kids are going to change focus?

Kids make a decision at 16 as to the path they want to roll down. The OHL is a very hard league for 16 year olds. Yet, they make that sacrifice because they choose to play in the OHL and be OHL players. Players that choose NCAA do so at 15/16 and they play elsewhere becuase the OHL is not a good development league for NCAA, simply because it is a tough league for 16 year olds. Only a small handful of 16 yea roles make high level contributions from the start. And, if they do, their NHL dream feels even closer.

There is nothing about any of this you are talking about that makes sense. Kids are uber competitive. That is what carried them to where they are now. They aren’t going to turn a switch and give up at that age. There are tons of kids every year that can go play CIS hockey at 20 but they stay for an OA year. Some because they just love OHL hockey and dont’ want to leave. Others because they want to give Pro hockey options one more year to be seen and change their fortunes. Some simply aren’t scholastically inclined and love hockey. But, notice, it is VERY VERY rare that a capable player goes CIS at 20, forgoes an OA year, while still being wanted in the OHL and/or high level Pro ranks.

I’m sorry but, yes, there will be the odd player that may make a decision in the direction you are referring but the odd player here or there is meaningless. If the tradeoff is more than a handful of players currently not playing CHL hockey decide now that is a viable route for them, then it is a considerable net positive. But don’t think for a second that high end prospects that are currently playing CHL hockey will bolt to the NCAA “just because” will happen.

 

[Strummer53]

What we are going to be seeing is those players that would be considered "higher end" 20 yr olds (the ones that are good jr players but not necessarily a pro prospect) will go to US College. The spin off on that is more of you are trading for a 19yr old that has produced at jr but isn't in anyone's pro picture, you can't assume two years of eligibility and as such will not be offering near as much for that player. This could open up a few extra roster spaces, as well things equal, you can get same value from a 17yr old vs an average or below average OA.
Players before 20 will be really sparse, generally something I wouldn't be too worried about.

 

[OMG67]

What we are going to be seeing is those players that would be considered "higher end" 20 yr olds (the ones that are good jr players but not necessarily a pro prospect) will go to US College. The spin off on that is more of you are trading for a 19yr old that has produced at jr but isn't in anyone's pro picture, you can't assume two years of eligibility and as such will not be offering near as much for that player. This could open up a few extra roster spaces, as well things equal, you can get same value from a 17yr old vs an average or below average OA.
Players before 20 will be really sparse, generally something I wouldn't be too worried about.

Although that seems to be the most common profile, I am not even certain we will see that. All of those same players mostly have four years of scholarship already in the bank. If they were to leave for NCAA, we would likely see them leaving currently for CIS but we don’t. That is the one aspect of that angle I am not as certain we will see.

To me, this all comes down to how many American kids may change their path. We will likely see more Canadian kids change their path. I mean, we are already seeing kids bolt from the USHL for the CHL now. So, it seems likely we will see a shift in that regard but will we see the shift for American kids in any meaningful way?

I think the best US born kids will likely still go USNTDP if they make that team. So, I doubt we will attract those players. But, what about the next tier of American kids? Can we recruit more of those kids? That is the real question. Keeping them in the league is up to the teams to provide a positive environment. But, that initial acquisition is the real question.

 

[Strummer53]

Although that seems to be the most common profile, I am not even certain we will see that. All of those same players mostly have four years of scholarship already in the bank. If they were to leave for NCAA, we would likely see them leaving currently for CIS but we don’t. That is the one aspect of that angle I am not as certain we will see.

To me, this all comes down to how many American kids may change their path. We will likely see more Canadian kids change their path. I mean, we are already seeing kids bolt from the USHL for the CHL now. So, it seems likely we will see a shift in that regard but will we see the shift for American kids in any meaningful way?

I think the best US born kids will likely still go USNTDP if they make that team. So, I doubt we will attract those players. But, what about the next tier of American kids? Can we recruit more of those kids? That is the real question. Keeping them in the league is up to the teams to provide a positive environment. But, that initial acquisition is the real question.

I do know that NCAA reps are actively at jr games and are targeting the 05 age group. One of the most scouted guys out west is Oliver Tulk of the Hitmen for example.
Talk around some teams is a few guys have or are about to sign with colleges simply because they get 4 more years at a high level that the NHL actually pays attention to (and in a lot of D1 schools, you have a lot of the bells and whistles that comes with it).

 

[OMG67]

I do know that NCAA reps are actively at jr games and are targeting the 05 age group. One of the most scouted guys out west is Oliver Tulk of the Hitmen for example.
Talk around some teams is a few guys have or are about to sign with colleges simply because they get 4 more years at a high level that the NHL actually pays attention to (and in a lot of D1 schools, you have a lot of the bells and whistles that comes with it).

Agreed, which is why I am on the fence regarding that cohort. The issue really is whether the kids are in a rush to enroll as 20 year olds when they can do the same as 21 year olds. I could understand the “pressure” if there was some sort of age limit or deadline. There isn’t. So, even though the DIV 1 schools may be recruiting heavily from the ‘05 class, it doesn't mean many will sign. Many may choose to commit to 2026-27 though. I can definitely see that.

I think with the OA class there are three cohorts:
#1> These are players that still hold Pro aspirations and are leveraging their OA season as a last ditch effort to gain that desired Pro contract
#2> This cohort comprises players who have ZERO interest in College or University. At best, they will do some sort of trade school or Certificate program. This cohort will not go NCAA under any circumstance.
#3> This cohort comprises the smaller kids with good skill that translates to the NCAA but not pro. They are good students and want to go to school. This will be the cohort to target. Can the DIV 1 Schools get these guys to forego their OA year? Even if they do, will the OHL care? What level of player is in this cohort? Would a player like Wakely have gone this route? Or would it be a player like Lavoie? Maybe a player that is a decent player, capable of contributing at the NCAA level but his rights are held by a rebuilding team and he just decides it would be better to leave early because of circumstance. There may be a few of those guys.

We will se how it plays out but I think he OA class is the class that we see potentially as the cohort that may leave early.

 

[Corso]

Why would he? No one has put forth a valid reason for a player like that to do so. Why? Because he will get paid? No. He’s a Canadian and can’t collect American NIL $$$ because he is there on a student VISA. So he can go and play only 40 games while completing a full course load of University level classes for a year or two instead of 68 games plus playoffs without having to attend classes as a distraction?

Did you ever consider that a player like him might want to because the NCAA is a higher caliber of play and he might want that unique college experience that really can't be found anywhere else?

Look, I'm not saying that every 18 and 19 year old elite OHLer will bolt to the NCAA and I know that the CHL is going to be doing it's upmost to ensure they don't but if the league begins to attract top end American talent (and they will), you will see the majority of those players leaving at the age of 18 and 19 to go and play college hockey, and they will be bringing some Canadian players with them.

 

[OMG67]

Did you ever consider that a player like him might want to because the NCAA is a higher caliber of play and he might want that unique college experience that really can't be found anywhere else?

Look, I'm not saying that every 18 and 19 year old elite OHLer will bolt to the NCAA and I know that the CHL is going to be doing it's upmost to ensure they don't but if the league begins to attract top end American talent (and they will), you will see the majority of those players leaving at the age of 18 and 19 to go and play college hockey, and they will be bringing some Canadian players with them.

If he did, he would have decided that way (like others) when he was 16.

I don’t think the CHL will attract the top end talent. I think the USNTDP is a magnet for the best US born players and I think it will remain that way. The ones that don’t make that squad but want to play NCAA will remain in the US and play USHL. The CHL is too difficult of a league for the players cut from the NTDP. They are better off in the USHL. It is a better development league for that age group.

You go play in the league best suited for your goals. That won’t change.

Additionally, if a good amount of Canadian kids start to migrate to the NCAA as 21 year olds, the NCAA will start to get too difficult for the 18 year olds pretty quickly.

We can agree to disagree and see what shakes down in two years.

 

[Donnie740]

Did you ever consider that a player like him might want to because the NCAA is a higher caliber of play and he might want that unique college experience that really can't be found anywhere else?

Look, I'm not saying that every 18 and 19 year old elite OHLer will bolt to the NCAA and I know that the CHL is going to be doing it's upmost to ensure they don't but if the league begins to attract top end American talent (and they will), you will see the majority of those players leaving at the age of 18 and 19 to go and play college hockey, and they will be bringing some Canadian players with them.

Any high end talent in the CHL - - and even the mid-level talent - - is focused on one thing and one thing only: playing in the NHL.

Why would they want to waste their time sitting in a calculus class when they could be training, practicing or watching film?

As I’ve explained numerous times, the only 18 and 19 year old players leaving the CHL for the NCAA will be the ones who are either sitting in the press box or languishing on the 4th line because they’re not good enough.

 

[bigsportsfan]

Did you ever consider that a player like him might want to because the NCAA is a higher caliber of play and he might want that unique college experience that really can't be found anywhere else?

Look, I'm not saying that every 18 and 19 year old elite OHLer will bolt to the NCAA and I know that the CHL is going to be doing it's upmost to ensure they don't but if the league begins to attract top end American talent (and they will), you will see the majority of those players leaving at the age of 18 and 19 to go and play college hockey, and they will be bringing some Canadian players with them.

100% agree with you. For me, its just common sense that what you are describing will happen. And then the days of OHL teams being able to rebuild over 3 or 4 years will get shaky.

Also I heard a scout talk about NHL drafted players playing in the CHL. He said he thinks most will remain in the CHL but in some cases, NHL teams may prefer for the player to go to the NCAA if that player needs to bulk up. He said off ice training in the NCAA is a priority and the facilities are amazing. Plus playing against older players in the NCAA will further help the player.

 

[bigsportsfan]

If a player is hell bent on NCAA at 18, there is zero reason to play OHL hockey. None. These players won’t go to the OHL.

Except for the fact that the OHL is better hockey than the USHL and there are more 16 year olds in the OHL than the USHL (not including the USA Hockey National Team Development Program).

Contrary to popular belief, it's very difficult for a 16 year old to make the USHL. Here is an article looking at the USHL ages from 2016: NZ Analytics: USHL 23-man Roster Breakdown - Neutral Zone.

In 2016, there were only 14 players who were 16 years old playing in the USHL (3.81% of the USHL players were 16 years old). In the OHL, 16 year olds probably make up around 10%+ of the players in the OHL. The article states: Very few players at 16-17 are good enough to play in the USHL and so the ones that do are typically high end talents.

The belief that the USHL is filled with 16 and 17 year olds isn't true. In fact, there are likely more 16 and 17 year olds playing in the OHL.

 

[OMG67]

100% agree with you. For me, its just common sense that what you are describing will happen. And then the days of OHL teams being able to rebuild over 3 or 4 years will get shaky.

Also I heard a scout talk about NHL drafted players playing in the CHL. He said he thinks most will remain in the CHL but in some cases, NHL teams may prefer for the player to go to the NCAA if that player needs to bulk up. He said off ice training in the NCAA is a priority and the facilities are amazing. Plus playing against older players in the NCAA will further help the player.

Why would an UNSIGNED “Prospect” take direction from the NHL team that drafted him that results in the player changing leagues? That seems like a very far fetched argument.

Also, this off ice training you speak of seems fishy to me as well. They need to take a five course load and maintain grades to keep their scholarship. Give this piece a read to understand the demands on D1 athletes:

Study: Time demands of D1 student-athletes are excessive

The NCAA route is very difficult. In fact, most CHL players when taking University courses during their hockey season would only typically take 2 classes. To be able to take five classes, it significantly restricts their time on and off ice. IT creates a distraction and an additional burden that CHL players do not have.

Also, the OHL is a better league thant he USHL but jsut because it is a better league doesn’t mean the player is adequately prepared to play in it. Same goes for 18 yar olds that try to play NCAA and ride the pine as a freshman.

I really feel there are a lot of people piping in on this topic that really don’t have a sense of what drives hockey players. There is a major cultural divide between Canadian and American hockey players. Canadian hockey players have had massive opportunities to play NCAA athletics whether it be hockey or otherwise. Yet, in hockey, the overwhelming majority choose to remain in Canada. Same witht he american players. They have a high tendency of playing in the USA. It is cultural.

I do not understand people that suggest players will play in the CHL for two years, maybe three and bolt for the NCAA when the path to the NCAA is already in place and active. The real question is whether US born kids will change paths and play CHL. IF they do, the vast majority of them will not play much as 16 year olds, just like the Canadian kids don’t. Just because they are rostered, it doesn’t mean they are truly playing. Most are 4th line, 3rd pairing, or healthy scratches. They do play more as 17 year olds but only the really strong ones (that are also typically the top NHL prospects) make a significant impact on their CHL team. That is not a big cohort either. Mostly they are the 1st and maybe 2nd rounders from the previous draft.

At the end of the day, I cannot see a player hold off on signing an NHL ELC to shift to the NCAA to become a better prospect and have a better chance of being signed. It seems fishy to me. The top NHL prospects get singed. Those are the players best suited to play NCAA. The second tier NHL prospects are usually on the right development path and many fo those players get signed as well. The ones that don’t would have to take a leap of faith, go to the NCAA and play against 22 year olds expecting to somehow become better? How does that even work logically?

 

[OMG67]

Let’s use a really good real World example: Adam Fantilli.

Fantilli was a late birthdate. So, he was drafted as a 19 year old. The question is very simple. Had the rules been different when he was 16, would Fantilli have gone to play in the OHL for two seasons and left as an 18 year old to play in the NCAA for one season prior to being drafted (as predicted) in the top-5 of the NHL draft? Or, would he have signed in the OHL, played out his three years and then signed with the Blue Jackets?

This seems to be the player profile many are pointing to. Keep in mind, players like this graduate early a lot of times anyway. They play NHL as underage players.

 

[Leviathan899]

Great post especially about the education which almost everyone seems to be forgetting. As someone who works in employment counselling services, a degree or diploma is useless if it has no value in the job market or it’s in a field you dont want to work in.

I also don’t see a lot of NCAA schools heavily recruiting players until they area atleast 17 and have played two years of junior hockey The only reason you had 15 year olds committing to a school was because they had to under the old rules. NCAA teams in theory should see there quality of players increase also by getting CHL graduates. So unless you are super elite it’s going to be even harder to get meaningful playing time as an 18 or 19 year old because the NCAA rosters should be stronger moving forward

One might argue what if your dream school says if you want to play for them you have to come in at this draft class or that draft class. If you are good they will wait for you until you are ready.

If it was my kid, I would really want them to make sure that there going to a school and program that will prepare them for a career of their liking should hockey not work out. The way I see it, assuming your not in the NHL the longer they stay in the CHL the longer you get to develop in both hockey and the more time you get to make a decision on schooling or career aspirations should you not be a pro hockey player

For sure, you both raise excellent points. Can’t disagree much at all. It does seem like the best of both worlds now. Can play in the CHL until you’re 20, and if you aren’t good enough to sign a pro contract, you can still take the traditional route and go to a Canadian school or go into a trade program, or if you’re good enough and you want to go to an ncaa program, you’re not able to. I think you’re correct after reading more posts and thinking it over that it doesn’t make much sense for a top guy to leave at 18-19 for the ncaa.

 

[Leviathan899]

Although that seems to be the most common profile, I am not even certain we will see that. All of those same players mostly have four years of scholarship already in the bank. If they were to leave for NCAA, we would likely see them leaving currently for CIS but we don’t. That is the one aspect of that angle I am not as certain we will see.

To me, this all comes down to how many American kids may change their path. We will likely see more Canadian kids change their path. I mean, we are already seeing kids bolt from the USHL for the CHL now. So, it seems likely we will see a shift in that regard but will we see the shift for American kids in any meaningful way?

I think the best US born kids will likely still go USNTDP if they make that team. So, I doubt we will attract those players. But, what about the next tier of American kids? Can we recruit more of those kids? That is the real question. Keeping them in the league is up to the teams to provide a positive environment. But, that initial acquisition is the real question.

I look at a guy on Kitchener, Misaljevic. Probably one of the more skilled OA’s this season and a guy capable of hitting 80 points or so, but is an undrafted player. This is his 4th year in the league as he didn’t play as a 16 year old and was a FA signing out of Jr B, so to get all 4 years of schooling paid for, he needs to finish this season. I really doubt a ncaa team would offer him a full ride, but I do think he would be a top 6 guy on 80\90% of schools, but getting that 4th year covered would be huge, I’d imagine. I wonder what % of OA’s who play every year are in their 3-4th years, and how many are in their 5th. Someone like swick, if this rule was in place a year ago, doesn’t need to play this season to access all 4 years.

 

[coolhandluc44]

100% agree with you. For me, its just common sense that what you are describing will happen. And then the days of OHL teams being able to rebuild over 3 or 4 years will get shaky.

Also I heard a scout talk about NHL drafted players playing in the CHL. He said he thinks most will remain in the CHL but in some cases, NHL teams may prefer for the player to go to the NCAA if that player needs to bulk up. He said off ice training in the NCAA is a priority and the facilities are amazing. Plus playing against older players in the NCAA will further help the player.

Can the NHL team arrange for someone to take his classes for him, complete his assignments, study and take his exams so he can get the extra training time in the gym? Is it good for development to literally play half as many regular season games. I sure hope he doesn’t get an injury because then the amount of games goes lower.

If the NCAA was literally just a hockey league with no schooling attached to it and you played a full season of hockey (like 68 regular season games and potentially 4 rounds of gruelling playoff hockey) it would be a different story.

 

[OMG67]

Thanks for the debate folks! Great convo. I don’t think there is anything else I can add to this topic. I am one of many that is interested to see how this all plays out. I think my assessment is correct but time will tell one way or the other.

 

[coolhandluc44]

Thanks for the debate folks! Great convo. I don’t think there is anything else I can add to this topic. I am one of many that is interested to see how this all plays out. I think my assessment is correct but time will tell one way or the other.

Agreed great convo. There is better analysis on this forum than published articles and talk on the radio. Just this morning the guys on the Fan where talking about NIL money and how it’s going to bring all these Canadians to NCAA. I just have my head a shake

 

[OMG67]

Agreed great convo. There is better analysis on this forum than published articles and talk on the radio. Just this morning the guys on the Fan where talking about NIL money and how it’s going to bring all these Canadians to NCAA. I just have my head a shake

Yes. There are a lot of insightful people on these boards that really help to expand thought. I rely on a lot of them to help fill in gaps and sometimes their thoughts on a subject make me completely change my mind on some topics. It is good to have such strong debate.