Prospect Info: CHL, NCAA & European Prospects Thread | Part V

[JimEIV]

I agree that it's exciting.

All I'm saying is that Wood's inclusion on the WJC roster last year, while nice, was not necessarily a huge deal. Throwing out "2nd high school player in 30 years" to be selected is disingenuous when he was one of the older players on the team.

Except no one who knows anything or anyone in Hockey USA would agree with that statement.

http://www.ushr.com/news/20150108/5304?label=Miles-Wood's-Unexpected-Path-to-the-Junior-Team

It can’t be emphasized enough how unusual Miles Wood making the final cut for the junior team was.

It had been 19 years since USA Hockey had taken a prep school kid to the World Juniors (in 1996, Cushing D Tom Poti was chosen). In 1997, the NTDP was founded, so it was au revoir to prep and high school players who, in the ‘80s and early ‘90s, were often represented on those teams. The U.S. squads performed abysmally, never, since the advent of their participation in 1977, finishing as high as fifth. But rostering high school and prep school players – there were some excellent ones -- was far from the reason those teams had no success. For one thing, USA Hockey put precious little in the way of resources into the team. For starters, scouting was non-existent by today’s standards, hence teams were structured haphazardly, i.e. they weren’t true ‘teams.’

 

[Brooklyndevil]

The basic criteria is birth year. To be eligible for the AHL for 2016-17, a player drafted from the CHL must have been born in 1996 (JQ is a '96). Some guys with late birthdays can enter the AHL a year before some other guys in the same draft class. Ie, Hunter Shinkaruk (October 1994) was eligible to play in the AHL in 2014-15 while Darnell Nurse (February 1995) had to wait until this season. But both were part of the 2013 NHL draft class.

JQ can also join Albany this season after Brandon's season is over.

Thank you very much!

 

[JimEIV]

And there can't be any more of a silly argument than age of a player for an U20 WJC team.

Everyone in the Tourney is typically 19 those who are not are the unusual ones.


Check out the average of each team in 2015...USA iced an unusually young team in the tournament that is typically a 19 year old tournament.

http://www.quanthockey.com/wjc-u20/en/teams/team-usa-players-2015-wjc-u20-stats.html

 

[Triumph]

Aethon,

If you just read your two posts together and not separately, you'd see why the argument you're advancing is flabby - Miles Wood's inclusion as a prep school player is unusual because THERE ARE NO 19 YEAR OLD PREP SCHOOLERS. You're right, the U20 tournament is typically made up of 19 year olds, and that's why the US never selects prep school players - they are done with school and are in college by that point. Or they're in major junior somewhere. Miles Wood is unusual because for some reason he was still in high school at 19 and was drafted by an NHL team.

 

[JimEIV]

Aethon,

If you just read your two posts together and not separately, you'd see why the argument you're advancing is flabby - Miles Wood's inclusion as a prep school player is unusual because THERE ARE NO 19 YEAR OLD PREP SCHOOLERS. You're right, the U20 tournament is typically made up of 19 year olds, and that's why the US never selects prep school players - they are done with school and are in college by that point. Or they're in major junior somewhere. Miles Wood is unusual because for some reason he was still in high school at 19 and was drafted by an NHL team.

You really can't be anymore wrong. I have multiple family members on my wife side that were involved in New England Prep schools from an athletic, management and faculty capacity. 19 years olds are VERY common in prep school.

http://www.connecticutchiefs.org/page/show/851616-prep-school-hockey-information

Last year, the 10 schools that make up Hockey East boasted 48 players that came out from NEPSIHA schools. The ECACHL, the other renowned NCAA Division 1 conference in the East, had 51 players on its 12 teams. But while prep school is a popular route to college hockey for boys, it’s far from a guaranteed one. Just one-quarter of 1 percent of all hockey players will end up earning a Div. 1 scholarship, according to a study by the Prep School Hockey Guide. With girls’ hockey growing and more colleges adding programs, the odds probably aren’t that steep. But because many schools don’t offer a full complement of scholarships, it’s difficult just the same. Compared to players in most public high schools, prep school players will be seen by many more college scouts. A single prep school game could have more than two dozen potential college players on the ice, while a high school team rarely has more than one or two. Statistically, the Guide notes, the chances of playing college hockey are 20 times better if you graduate from a prep school rather than a public high school. The emergence of junior hockey has added another variable to the mix. Top junior leagues like the USHL offer 60-game schedules – twice what most preps play. Many players arrive at Div. 1 colleges as 19- or 20-year-old freshmen after a year or two of juniors. “When I went to Avon Old Farms (in the early 1990s), you’d have a lot of repeat 10th-graders or repeat 11th-graders, and those guys would head right to college after graduating, be it Division 1 or Division 3,” said Gagnon, who also serves as Cushing’s assistant admissions director. What junior hockey can’t provide, coaches stress, is the educational background and budding network of relationships that a prep graduate will be armed with when he hangs up his skates. “For me, personally, the fact is that I have a degree from Avon Old Farms and a network, and it’s a network for life,” said Gagnon. “I probably wouldn’t have gotten this Cushing job without that network.” In other words, every hockey career ends sometime. “Even Ray Bourque owns a restaurant now,” said Gagnon.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Except no one who knows anything or anyone in Hockey USA would agree with that statement.

http://www.ushr.com/news/20150108/5304?label=Miles-Wood's-Unexpected-Path-to-the-Junior-Team

Lol, so finding some random article on the internet written by an unknown author equates to "no one who knows anything or anyone in Hockey USA would agree." Notice how the author also said it was "unusual", not "impressive."

To reiterate Triumph's point, there are very few 19-year olds in prep school. And to reiterate the article you posted, 95% of players who follow Wood's route through their draft year end up in the USNDP or college. Just because Wood chose to stay in high school instead of playing against stiffer competition doesn't make his selection more impressive.

 

[JimEIV]

Another good article

http://www.boston.com/sports/articl...undergoes_a_freshman_reorientation/?page=full

From the article.

Last year we played a team that had two 26-year-old [seniors]," said Parker, in his 35th season as BU's coach. "I'm not saying it's not fair, but it might be dangerous."

For the 18-year-olds, that is, which is why Parker and York have reassessed the way they recruit. Cognizant that so many teams are skating 20- and 21-year-old freshmen and thus have an abundance of 23-, 24-, 25-, and even 26-year-olds in the lineup, York - in his 36th year of coaching and 14th at BC - and Parker have to be convinced a true-age freshman is not going to be overmatched physically.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

You really can't be anymore wrong. I have multiple family members on my wife side that were involved in New England Prep schools from an athletic, management and faculty capacity. 19 years olds are VERY common in prep school.

http://www.connecticutchiefs.org/page/show/851616-prep-school-hockey-information

Wood chose to stay in high school for two seasons instead of enrolling in the USNDP and then heading to college. What about that choice, which ostensibly meant that Wood would play against inferior competition for the next two years, makes his WJC selection more impressive?

 

[JimEIV]

Lol, so finding some random article on the internet written by an unknown author equates to "no one who knows anything or anyone in Hockey USA would agree." Notice how the author also said it was "unusual", not "impressive."

To reiterate Triumph's point, there are very few 19-year olds in prep school. And to reiterate the article you posted, 95% of players who follow Wood's route through their draft year end up in the USNDP or college. Just because Wood chose to stay in high school instead of playing against stiffer competition doesn't make his selection more impressive.

Its just purely, unequivocally wrong no matter how matter how many time you repeat it.

 

[Devils731]

Its just purely, unequivocally wrong no matter how matter how many time you repeat it.

Very few 19 year old in prep school with NHL aspirations.

 

[JimEIV]

Very few 19 year old in prep school with NHL aspirations.

Well that is probably true. But I'm almost certain Fayne was 19 at some point of his last year at Nobles as well.

 

[JimEIV]

And you don't enroll for the US Development Team, you are selected for sole purpose of international tournaments You are confusing the difference between the Development team and the USHL. The Development team plays a very different schedule during the year.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Regardless, it is nearly impossible, historically, to extrapolate prep school stats and performance to the NHL level. That is why many of us were skeptical of Wood last season, because we were waiting to see if he would be able to do it at a higher level.

Now, Wood is doing well in a league where it is easier to compare his performance to that of past players which have made it to the NHL, it is easier to actually see highlights and watch full games of his, there are more analysts, amateur scouts, etc. watching and writing about him. None of that was true previously. I guarantee you that before this season, 95% of this board had never seen 2 minutes of Miles Wood playing hockey, and all we had was stat lines and sparse reports to go off of. Is it really that hard to understand why more people would be excited about him now that we have a wealth more of information on him and see him playing at a higher level?

 

[Triumph]

Well that is probably true. But I'm almost certain Fayne was 19 at some point of his last year at Nobles as well.

He was never 19 years old when he was playing hockey at Nobles.

It's great that you're able to source your claims - the problem is that these people don't make the NHL. They may be looking for hockey scholarships at major programs and think that exposure is their way to a professional hockey career, but these people generally don't make it to the top.

Trevor Van Riemsdyk is a recent example of someone who was a 20 year old freshman in college.

Here, I'll help you out - hockeydb is very useful and lists where someone was drafted from, I'll go through Wood's draft year and point out who was picked out of high school and when they went to college.

Connor Hurley - 2014
Tommy Vannelli - Went to WHL
Ryan Segalla - 2013
Terrance Amorosa - 2014
Teemu Kivihalme - 2014
Anthony Florentino - 2013
Grant Besse - 2013 (1 year overage pick)
Wiley Sherman - 2014
Tim Harrison - 2013 (1 year overage pick)
Merrick Madsen - 2014
Avery Peterson - 2014
Jake Jackson - 2015, went to BCHL in 2014-15
Anthony Brodeur - Went to QMJHL

And then Miles Wood

So we've got 14 players drafted out of high school, 2 of whom went in their double overage year. That's not even counting all the American players drafted out of the USNDP who all go to school before they turn 20.

 

[JimEIV]

And did you catch that little tid-bit in the article from Boston.com?

Jack Parker and Jerry York - aren't enamored with the current landscape of Division 1 college hockey, where the average age of a freshman is 19.8.

That was in i 2008

This is 2012

“If you’re a basketball player, you play in middle school, you play in high school, and you play in college,” said Pete Souris, assistant commissioner for public relations at Hockey East. “But, if you’re a hockey player, you’re likely to play in elite junior leagues in the U.S. and Canada for several years before enrolling in college. That means that the average Division I college freshman hockey player is more than 20 years old.”

http://onlyagame.wbur.org/2012/09/15/boston-university-hockey-culture



And there is an interesting discussion on age of the NCAA here.

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?105990-Topic-for-Discussion-Ages-of-DIII-hockey-players

 

[Triumph]

And did you catch that little tid-bit in the article from Boston.com?



That was in i 2008

This is 2012




http://onlyagame.wbur.org/2012/09/15/boston-university-hockey-culture


And there is an interesting discussion on age of the NCAA here.

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?105990-Topic-for-Discussion-Ages-of-DIII-hockey-players

Great! Only one problem - the average freshman in the NCAA doesn't make the NHL or come close. In fact, that's probably why the average freshman is 20 years old - they're competing with these guys who have legitimate professional aspirations and those guys play at a very high level.

 

[JimEIV]

He was never 19 years old when he was playing hockey at Nobles.

It's great that you're able to source your claims - the problem is that these people don't make the NHL. They may be looking for hockey scholarships at major programs and think that exposure is their way to a professional hockey career, but these people generally don't make it to the top.

Trevor Van Riemsdyk is a recent example of someone who was a 20 year old freshman in college.

Here, I'll help you out - hockeydb is very useful and lists where someone was drafted from, I'll go through Wood's draft year and point out who was picked out of high school and when they went to college.

Connor Hurley - 2014
Tommy Vannelli - Went to WHL
Ryan Segalla - 2013
Terrance Amorosa - 2014
Teemu Kivihalme - 2014
Anthony Florentino - 2013
Grant Besse - 2013 (1 year overage pick)
Wiley Sherman - 2014
Tim Harrison - 2013 (1 year overage pick)
Merrick Madsen - 2014
Avery Peterson - 2014
Jake Jackson - 2015, went to BCHL in 2014-15
Anthony Brodeur - Went to QMJHL

And then Miles Wood

So we've got 14 players drafted out of high school, 2 of whom went in their double overage year. That's not even counting all the American players drafted out of the USNDP who all go to school before they turn 20.

You are changing the subject.

It's irrelevant to my initial point a page or two back that a 20 year old has NO ADVANTAGE in the NCAA. So saying he needs to be dominate because of his age when everyone else is the same age as a freshman holds no water.

 

[The Devil In I]

And did you catch that little tid-bit in the article from Boston.com?



That was in i 2008

This is 2012




http://onlyagame.wbur.org/2012/09/15/boston-university-hockey-culture



And there is an interesting discussion on age of the NCAA here.

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?105990-Topic-for-Discussion-Ages-of-DIII-hockey-players

Yea the average age is, and has been that high, for a while. But that's because the vast vast majority of NCAA players will never see NHL ice. They spend extra time in prep school leagues to develop their game in hopes of getting a scholarship offer.

 

[JimEIV]

Yea the average age is, and has been that high, for a while. But that's because the vast vast majority of NCAA players will never see NHL ice. They spend extra time in prep school leagues to develop their game in hopes of getting a scholarship offer.

Sure. That is fine, but the conversation was physical maturity and dominance of a 20 year old player in the NCAA. It was said/implied that Wood was somehow rare as a 20 year old freshmen when in fact it is the average age of freshmen.

 

[Triumph]

You are changing the subject.

It's irrelevant to my initial point a page or two back that a 20 year old has NO ADVANTAGE in the NCAA. So saying he needs to be dominate because of his age when everyone else is the same age as a freshman holds no water.

Your argument is the one leaking. I just showed you that in one particular year, players drafted by NHL teams out of high school by and large don't go to college at 20. They go at 18 or 19. All of the USNDP drafted players go by the age of 19. Everyone else who is undrafted? I don't really care about those people. Yes, undrafted free agents make the NHL more and more, but I'll wager not many of them went to college at age 20.

Wood should dominate because that's what he has to do to be an NHLer. Players who are not dominant in college rarely become NHLers. He's doing it. He's playing at the level he has to play at to be thought of as a potential NHLer. The fact that he's 20 means that he doesn't have a 'grace period' like you might give to an 18 year old freshman who is playing against players much older than him. He hasn't needed any grace period, he's come in and played very well right away. Good.

 

[JimEIV]

Your argument is the one leaking. I just showed you that in one particular year, players drafted by NHL teams out of high school by and large don't go to college at 20. They go at 18 or 19. All of the USNDP drafted players go by the age of 19. Everyone else who is undrafted? I don't really care about those people. Yes, undrafted free agents make the NHL more and more, but I'll wager not many of them went to college at age 20.

Wood should dominate because that's what he has to do to be an NHLer. Players who are not dominant in college rarely become NHLers. He's doing it. He's playing at the level he has to play at to be thought of as a potential NHLer. The fact that he's 20 means that he doesn't have a 'grace period' like you might give to an 18 year old freshman who is playing against players much older than him. He hasn't needed any grace period, he's come in and played very well right away. Good.

Dude you have been wrong on every single account.

You were wrong on the significance of Wood's addition to the WJC team, which lead to some bizarre discussion of the age of Team USA's U20 players, which you were wrong about, which led to a discussion of age of Prep school players age which you were wrong about, then on to age of Freshman in the NCAA which you are wrong about.

Keep trying new avenues to prove a point.

 

[Triumph]

Dude you have been wrong on every single account.

You were wrong on the significance of Wood's addition to the WJC team

Nope, as I pointed out, 19 year old prep schoolers aren't on an NHL track, and WJC teams are one data point.

which lead to some bizarre discussion of the age of Team USA's U20 players, which you were wrong about

Nope, this was Feed Me A Stray Cat.

which led to a discussion of age of Prep school players age which you were wrong about

Nope, and I actually did research on the players that NHL teams are interested in.

then on to age of Freshman in the NCAA which you are wrong about.

Nope, and I actually did research on the players that NHL teams draft.

To me, the NCAA is merely the canvas on which future NHL players paint. I didn't go to one of these schools and have zero rooting investment in any of them. I don't care about the 'average freshman' at an NCAA school because the average freshman isn't going to be an NHL player. What I know about is how NHL players perform at the NCAA, and it tends to be very well. I also know about drafted players who did not make the NHL, and they also tended to perform well at the NCAA level. You are ignorant of anything outside of the Devils system, so you go and make a factually wrong point with Mark Fayne because he's the only player you know who was taken out of a New England high school in the last 15 years. But that's really sort of unfair, because there really aren't many players taken out of NE high schools anymore, and most of those players are taken in the later rounds.

 

[JimEIV]

Nope, as I pointed out, 19 year old prep schoolers aren't on an NHL track, and WJC teams are one data point.

No you didn't...a few post up you said "THERE ARE NO 19 YEAR OLD PREP SCHOOLERS" post #804

Which was a carry over conversion about how he was an old WJC team member - Which is truly a nonsensical discussion ...Again you wrong on both counts.

 

[AfroThunder396]

The argument is not:

"Wood has to be dominant because he's older and physically more mature than his peers, and therefore he has some kind of enormous advantage and no excuse not to dominate."

The argument is:

"Wood has to be dominant because he wasted a year of development time against weak competition, and players who succeed in the NHL are typically dominant in college, therefore he has to quickly demonstrate his skill to validate himself as a legitimate NHL prospect."

No one can deny Wood took a pretty unorthodox path to get to where he is today, and this makes it hard to project his career. There's no one to compare him to. Therefore, he needs to establish merit as early as he can to prove what he's truly capable of. Him being a 19 year old in high school is worth considering, but not really consequential to his current production.

 

[JimEIV]

There a many examples of older successful college players that didn't have success out of the box.

Andy McDonald was a 19 year old in his freshman year, his first two years at Colgate were uninspiring. He didn't have a good season until he was 21.

Dustin Penner was a 21 year old freshman at Maine, averaged 1/2 point a game in his only season.

Anson Carter didn't enter Michigan State until he was 20. Only had 30 points in 36 games his freshman year.


There are tons of examples like this but these are some of the more successful pro"s that I can think of at the moment.