CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[Boonk]

If so, why now? What has changed? Currently they don’t get those players.

And before you say because the CHL is better, not all three leagues. The Q definitely isn’t better.

They dont get those players right now because why pay a 50k transfer fee to USA Hockey when you can poach them in the offseason not having to do that? The summer is when we are going to see the true full scale impact of the barrier coming down and players transfering between leagues. Good chance youre going to see quite a few top American players from the USHL that are NCAA commits going over to the CHL along with some of the top end 18-20 year old CHLers withholding their ELC to go to the NCAA.

As for your 'debate-me-bro' CHL argument its not one im talking about nor care to with you regarding this topic, but the CHL leagues certainly arent getting any weaker after this decision. The Q is seeing a mass return of Quebec-Maritime players that are going to NCAA from other leagues, mostly BCHL right now. The depth players staying there will certainly improve the strength of the league, im willing to bet that the Q makes the transition to be the more direct and willing NCAA feeder of the 3 CHL leagues because of that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

They dont get those players right now because why pay a 50k transfer fee to USA Hockey when you can poach them in the offseason not having to do that? The summer is when we are going to see the true full scale impact of the barrier coming down and players transfering between leagues. Good chance youre going to see quite a few top American players from the USHL that are NCAA commits going over to the CHL along with some of the top end 18-20 year old CHLers withholding their ELC to go to the NCAA.

As for your 'debate-me-bro' CHL argument its not one im talking about nor care to with you regarding this topic, but the CHL leagues certainly arent getting any weaker after this decision. The Q is seeing a mass return of Quebec-Maritime players that are going to NCAA from other leagues, mostly BCHL right now. The depth players staying there will certainly improve the strength of the league, im willing to bet that the Q makes the transition to be the more direct and willing NCAA feeder of the 3 CHL leagues because of that.

You’re intentionally avoiding the larger point that they haven’t gotten those players in prior seasons.

What has all of a sudden changed that will make them get those players in future seasons?

 

[Boonk]

I wonder if the BCHL goes back to Hockey Canada with hat in hand. They have been completely gutted by the NCAA rule change and because they are independent, unlike the USHL with its transfer fees, they have no recourse when CHL teams comes in and dismantle their rosters. I'm also hearing a bit of buzz on Penticton (the flagship BCHL program) applying for an expansion team in the Dub.

The WHL is gunning for Penticton and Chilliwack for sure. If the BCHL loses those two markets theres a good chance they head back to Hockey Canada and capitulate. Pentictons owner is on the BCHL BoD though, and have heard that Kelownas owner nearby wouldnt take too kindly on their marketspace and sponsorships in the region being encroached upon and make it difficult. Time and negotiations would have to settle that front though. I think Chilliwack would be the best bet to enter the WHL first out of the two.

 

[Corso]

They dont get those players right now because why pay a 50k transfer fee to USA Hockey when you can poach them in the offseason not having to do that? The summer is when we are going to see the true full scale impact of the barrier coming down and players transfering between leagues. Good chance youre going to see quite a few top American players from the USHL that are NCAA commits going over to the CHL along with some of the top end 18-20 year old CHLers withholding their ELC to go to the NCAA.

As for your 'debate-me-bro' CHL argument its not one im talking about nor care to with you regarding this topic, but the CHL leagues certainly arent getting any weaker after this decision. The Q is seeing a mass return of Quebec-Maritime players that are going to NCAA from other leagues, mostly BCHL right now. The depth players staying there will certainly improve the strength of the league, im willing to bet that the Q makes the transition to be the more direct and willing NCAA feeder of the 3 CHL leagues because of that.

I've heard that one team wanted a 75k transfer fee for a certain player. Once the offseason begins you most likely will see a lot of movement.

As for further engagement....yeah best to just ignore.

The WHL is gunning for Penticton and Chilliwack for sure. If the BCHL loses those two markets theres a good chance they head back to Hockey Canada and capitulate. Pentictons owner is on the BCHL BoD though, and have heard that Kelownas owner nearby wouldnt take too kindly on their marketspace and sponsorships in the region being encroached upon and make it difficult. Time and negotiations would have to settle that front though. I think Chilliwack would be the best bet to enter the WHL first out of the two.

Heard that Kelowna is actually OK with it and that as of now Chilliwack is being left in the cold.

 

[Boonk]

I've heard that one team wanted a 75k transfer fee for a certain player. Once the offseason begins you most likely will see a lot of movement.

As for further engagement....yeah best to just ignore.

Yeah thats ridiculous LOL. Theres literally no point in tossing a bag of cash like that to USA Hockey this late in the season when you can just wait till summer and not do that.

Good chance that USA Hockey loses any antitrust litigation case vs Youngstown and Muskegon. I cant imagine Buch will be too happy LOL.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Really? Who of value has the USHL lost and who of value has the CHL gained?

And why do you not mention that the NCAA could potentially eat into the pool of CHL talent? Maybe won’t make a big difference when all is said and done, but how could anyone be sure at this point?

What has the NCAA gained so for, other than overagers from the CHL.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

What has the NCAA gained so for, other than overagers from the CHL.

Oliver Tulk (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) committing to Wisconsin is the biggest non overage commit so far. Feel like that's gone under the radar since there aren't many Badgers fans on here.

 

[Blue and Green]

The WHL is gunning for Penticton and Chilliwack for sure. If the BCHL loses those two markets theres a good chance they head back to Hockey Canada and capitulate. Pentictons owner is on the BCHL BoD though, and have heard that Kelownas owner nearby wouldnt take too kindly on their marketspace and sponsorships in the region being encroached upon and make it difficult. Time and negotiations would have to settle that front though. I think Chilliwack would be the best bet to enter the WHL first out of the two.

Heard that Kelowna is actually OK with it and that as of now Chilliwack is being left in the cold.

Yeah, I don't see why the Rockets would have any problems with Penticton joining WHL. Kelowna is 4x larger, that urban area is where the vast majority of their sponsorships and attendance comes from. Vees are a long-time BCHL powerhouse with strong attendance and they are the focus in Penticton, not the Rockets. Would give the Rockets a natural rival and easy travel games (1 hour).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yeah thats ridiculous LOL. Theres literally no point in tossing a bag of cash like that to USA Hockey this late in the season when you can just wait till summer and not do that.

Good chance that USA Hockey loses any antitrust litigation case vs Youngstown and Muskegon. I cant imagine Buch will be too happy LOL.

Are you ever going to actually answer my question?

Strange that you can talk about me, but you can't actually answer a simple question I posed to you.

 

[Boonk]

You’re intentionally avoiding the larger point that they haven’t gotten those players in prior seasons.

What has all of a sudden changed that will make them get those players in future seasons?

Because they couldnt go to the NCAA if they played a single minute in one game in the CHL for 50~ years until now. Did you just decide to conveninently forget that fact to fit your agenda or something?

If a junior league/development circuit in any sport has developed the best pros for the best league in that sport and has done so for several decades and is still a proven model in doing so, theres a good chance the best junior players of those age groups go there. The CHL barrier coming down means the 3 leagues will be the best junior hockey feeder for both the college and pro path. I cant control if that simple truth bothers you that much, no matter how much you keep asking and demanding answers for it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Oliver Tulk (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) committing to Wisconsin is the biggest non overage commit so far. Feel like that's gone under the radar since there aren't many Badgers fans on here.

Well the guy is 20, and done 4 years of CHL, so wouldn’t have been returning anyways.
I wonder if an NHL team drafts him at 20?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Well the guy is 20, and done 4 years of CHL, so wouldn’t have been returning anyways.
I wonder if an NHL team drafts him at 20?

He could return for his overage year. This is his 19 year old season (2005 birthyear, season starts in 2024, thus 19 year old season), so he can go back to the Dub for his 20 year old overage season if he so wishes.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He could return for his overage year. This is his 19 year old season (2005 birthyear, season starts in 2024, thus 19 year old season), so he can go back to the Dub for his 20 year old overage season if he so wishes.

He’s already 20, and played 4 years, he likely wasn’t going back to junior for a fifth year. He’s not even a drafted player,

So like I replied to Pavel, no players of significance has moved yet.

 

[Blue and Green]

He’s already 20, and played 4 years, he likely wasn’t going back to junior for a fifth year. He’s not even a drafted player,

So like I replied to Pavel, no players of significance has moved yet.

Plenty of guys stick around for a fifth season. E.g., Tusk's overage teammate, Kalem Parker.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Plenty of guys stick around for a fifth season. E.g., Tusk's overage teammate, Kalem Parker.

That doesn’t mean they are good prospects, which is what we were discussing. If he is the best., then not much of substance, like earlier pointed out.

Oliver Tulk (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) committing to Wisconsin is the biggest non overage commit so far.

 

[NTDP]

What has the NCAA gained so for, other than overagers from the CHL.

The point that many are missing is the NCAA will become the pinnacle league below pro hockey in North America. Period. The CHL & USHL will compete for players and only a fraction of them that are good enough at 18/19 will skip the NCAA. Think of how many kids that are 18/19 are truly ready for the NHL out of the 60 team CHL, that's where college will help. Martone and Misa will not be NHL regulars next year, they'll need college, and in a few years the next wave of 18 y/o Misa's will be playing NCAA where the best of their peers are located - from both sides of the border.

No one knows how things will truly shake out but this is becoming a dick measuring contest for junior league superiority where it's very possible once/if the high end CHL kids start leaving, the CHL will be just another junior league albeit maybe the best one with top 16/17 year olds. I have a CHL.tv subscription, been some great games and several that aren't quicker or better than two average USHL teams. I watched Chicoutimi vs Bae-Comeau a couple months ago and it was as junior hockey of a game as you could get.

I mean think about it - in five years once the NCAA is more mainstream with this change who are you going to want to watch on a Friday night? Michigan vs BC with like 20 NHL picks playing or Kitchener Guelph with like 5 leftover draft picks that aren't ready for college hockey yet? I see it in the USHL too, it's a good league but the reason you don't see many NHL logo's next to names on the line charts is because they lose their best 18-20 year olds to the NCAA, happens every year. (if Mich played BC tomorrow there'd be 18 NHL picks in that game, several high end). Now just imagine when this gets spread out amongst several other college teams that aren't the top 15.

 

[Blue and Green]

That doesn’t mean they are good prospects, which is what we were discussing. If he is the best., then not much of substance, like earlier pointed out.

Oliver Tulk (2005, WHL, Calgary Hitmen) committing to Wisconsin is the biggest non overage commit so far.

Fair enough, I was just pointing out that lots of CHL overage players are in their fifth season.

 

[Blue and Green]

The point that many are missing is the NCAA will become the pinnacle league below pro hockey in North America.

It's already that.

 

[NTDP]

It's already that.

I agree but I didn't go that far.

 

[Blue and Green]

I agree but I didn't go that far.

Right, so D1 is already the highest calibre of non-pro play and it will get even a little stronger by allowing ex-CHL players. But by the same token, CHL is already top dog in juniors and its talent advantage over other junior leagues is about to increase substantially because NCAA hopefuls won't have to bypass CHL to preserve eligibility. There will be a flow of talent now from CHL to NCAA but it will mostly be players who in the past never would have gone to CHL in the first place, or guys who have completed at least their non-overage CHL eligibility. D1 getting stronger and older will create a higher barrier of entry for 18YO and 19YO players; a portion of them will probably have to stay in junior one more year than they would've previously, which works fine for CHL. So, no loss than wasn't a gain beforehand.

You mentioned the draft picks for Boston College and Michigan; the London Knights have four NHL 1st-rounders plus several other draftees and keep in mind that a portion of their roster hasn't yet been draft-eligible. CHL is already a huge source of high-end talent, just look at the first-round draft picks year by year.

If drafted CHLers are allowed to play in the AHL-- I think that's probably going to happen in the next few years-- then that would result in a loss of some of the strongest 18YO and 19YO talent. But of course, it also means that some of those guys will go that route in their D+1 instead of moving to NCAA.

The calibre of D1 is going to strengthen somewhat, but I think it's best not to overstate that case and not to assume that the CHL will become "just another junior league."

 

[Corso]

Right, so D1 is already the highest calibre of non-pro play and it will get even a little stronger by allowing ex-CHL players. But by the same token, CHL is already top dog in juniors and its talent advantage over other junior leagues is about to increase substantially because NCAA hopefuls won't have to bypass CHL to preserve eligibility. There will be a flow of talent now from CHL to NCAA but it will mostly be players who in the past never would have gone to CHL in the first place, or guys who have completed at least their non-overage CHL eligibility. D1 getting stronger and older will create a higher barrier of entry for 18YO and 19YO players; a portion of them will probably have to stay in junior one more year than they would've previously, which works fine for CHL. So, no loss than wasn't a gain beforehand.

You mentioned the draft picks for Boston College and Michigan; the London Knights have four NHL 1st-rounders plus several other draftees and keep in mind that a portion of their roster hasn't yet been draft-eligible. CHL is already a huge source of high-end talent, just look at the first-round draft picks year by year.

If drafted CHLers are allowed to play in the AHL-- I think that's probably going to happen in the next few years-- then that would result in a loss of some of the strongest 18YO and 19YO talent. But of course, it also means that some of those guys will go that route in their D+1 instead of moving to NCAA.

The calibre of D1 is going to strengthen somewhat, but I think it's best not to overstate that case and not to assume that the CHL will become "just another junior league."

Well said. I certainly do not want to rehash all of these topics because I and many other posters already have gone through them several times on this thread.
Let me just say that I really wish what NTDP said comes to pass for selfish reasons. I am within an hour drive of five quality D-1 teams while the nearest CHL team for me is a little over four hours away. So obviously being a college fan I would love to see all of the very best 18 through 20 year old high end players in the D-1 ranks. There are many obstacles to that happening, however, and looking at the lay of the land right now, I don't expect it to happen.

I really do believe that the NHL is going to opt for the AHL model of development for the very best 19 and 20 year old players.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Right, so D1 is already the highest calibre of non-pro play and it will get even a little stronger by allowing ex-CHL players. But by the same token, CHL is already top dog in juniors and its talent advantage over other junior leagues is about to increase substantially because NCAA hopefuls won't have to bypass CHL to preserve eligibility. There will be a flow of talent now from CHL to NCAA but it will mostly be players who in the past never would have gone to CHL in the first place, or guys who have completed at least their non-overage CHL eligibility. D1 getting stronger and older will create a higher barrier of entry for 18YO and 19YO players; a portion of them will probably have to stay in junior one more year than they would've previously, which works fine for CHL. So, no loss than wasn't a gain beforehand.

You mentioned the draft picks for Boston College and Michigan; the London Knights have four NHL 1st-rounders plus several other draftees and keep in mind that a portion of their roster hasn't yet been draft-eligible. CHL is already a huge source of high-end talent, just look at the first-round draft picks year by year.

If drafted CHLers are allowed to play in the AHL-- I think that's probably going to happen in the next few years-- then that would result in a loss of some of the strongest 18YO and 19YO talent. But of course, it also means that some of those guys will go that route in their D+1 instead of moving to NCAA.

The calibre of D1 is going to strengthen somewhat, but I think it's best not to overstate that case and not to assume that the CHL will become "just another junior league."

Agree, good post,

 

[NTDP]

Right, so D1 is already the highest calibre of non-pro play and it will get even a little stronger by allowing ex-CHL players. But by the same token, CHL is already top dog in juniors and its talent advantage over other junior leagues is about to increase substantially because NCAA hopefuls won't have to bypass CHL to preserve eligibility. There will be a flow of talent now from CHL to NCAA but it will mostly be players who in the past never would have gone to CHL in the first place, or guys who have completed at least their non-overage CHL eligibility. D1 getting stronger and older will create a higher barrier of entry for 18YO and 19YO players; a portion of them will probably have to stay in junior one more year than they would've previously, which works fine for CHL. So, no loss than wasn't a gain beforehand.

You mentioned the draft picks for Boston College and Michigan; the London Knights have four NHL 1st-rounders plus several other draftees and keep in mind that a portion of their roster hasn't yet been draft-eligible. CHL is already a huge source of high-end talent, just look at the first-round draft picks year by year.

If drafted CHLers are allowed to play in the AHL-- I think that's probably going to happen in the next few years-- then that would result in a loss of some of the strongest 18YO and 19YO talent. But of course, it also means that some of those guys will go that route in their D+1 instead of moving to NCAA.

The calibre of D1 is going to strengthen somewhat, but I think it's best not to overstate that case and not to assume that the CHL will become "just another junior league."

You're correct on this regarding the CHL as a whole. London I think has 12 NHL picks on their team and to watch that power play work is a treat but you know that's not your average CHL team. I know the top Canadian talent still plays there and when you have a 60 team junior league and a draft which when your 17 you're in your draft year - then yes the numbers will be huge for the CHL. The USHL only has 16 teams...but if you break it down individually the USHL numbers over the course of the draft are similar to any one CHL league. I don't always count the NTDP because that's kind of its own entity and the U-18's play half their schedule outside the USHL and don't participate in their playoffs.

I was just saying people don't know just how good the USHL is now, everyone focuses on the first round types, but the depth in the USHL is very very good. The caliber of D1 will strengthen significantly, I am not sure the AHL will become a league with several 18-20 year olds, I think most underestimate that jump from junior to that league - and overestimate how good some of these 18-19 year olds will be leaving the CHL because of the point totals everyone looks at. Alex Weiermair wasn't ready for the college game w/ Denver and got sent to the WHL this fall and has 22 pts in 20 games w/ Portland (which I know I'm proving your point that kids will stay another year or so in junior - which is fine I'm not trying to have a "gotcha" moment).

I think it will just become the norm to see these kids play a few years in D1. For example I can't wait to watch that Parsons kid play goal for Clarkson. He's been good whenever I've seen him w/ Kitchener.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Brayden Dube (2005, WHL, Prince Albert Raiders) commits to Bemidji State.

 

[Blue and Green]

You're correct on this regarding the CHL as a whole. London I think has 12 NHL picks on their team and to watch that power play work is a treat but you know that's not your average CHL team. I know the top Canadian talent still plays there and when you have a 60 team junior league and a draft which when your 17 you're in your draft year - then yes the numbers will be huge for the CHL. The USHL only has 16 teams...but if you break it down individually the USHL numbers over the course of the draft are similar to any one CHL league. I don't always count the NTDP because that's kind of its own entity and the U-18's play half their schedule outside the USHL and don't participate in their playoffs.

I was just saying people don't know just how good the USHL is now, everyone focuses on the first round types, but the depth in the USHL is very very good. The caliber of D1 will strengthen significantly, I am not sure the AHL will become a league with several 18-20 year olds, I think most underestimate that jump from junior to that league. I think it will become the norm to see these kids play a few years in D1. For example I can't wait to watch that Parsons kid play goal for Clarkson. He's been good whenever I've seen him w/ Kitchener.

London's not the average CHL team, yes, just as the example of Boston College isn't the average NCAA team.

Re: depth of talent, plenty of USHLers get drafted but a lot of those guys jump immediately afterwards to NCAA (Matvei Gridin even moved to the Q), whereas most CHL draftees have stayed in their league for the duration of their non-overage eligibility.

I've watched the Canucks' AHL team for the past several seasons so I know that the AHL isn't an easy place for younger players, but a fair chunk of the first-round 18YO's and a moderately larger group of drafted 19YO's could play competently in that league right now.