CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[Leviathan899]

More than this, there’s good reason to believe that some players will develop better by being dominant in their peer group than they will by being challenged by stronger competition. Being able to be creative at speed against slightly weaker opposition can make you better as you age and develop physically, whereas having to fight through tougher competition (especially as part of a more structured system) could stunt that creative development.

This is a point that’s rarely stated but is excellent, imo. Puck touches and confidence are two major components in development. Too often players are rushed to the next level because they’re deemed “too good” for junior (a line I can’t stand) and then move up and are stunted in their development, as they are then battling for a lineup spot or don’t get as much PP or PK time. Aren’t the go to guys and their games are molded to just fit in and play the system, stripping them of their creativity and skill level. JL Foudy is one of the best examples of this recently imo. Went to the AHL due to the Covid year and the exceptions for CHL players. He was a good OHL player with potential but wasn’t even PPG in Windsor yet, but he could really skate. I think 2 more years in Windsor would have allowed his skill set to develop at a good pace and he’d build more confidence, and then he’d enter pro two years later as a much more well rounded prospect. Now, he’s a bottom 6 AHL’er and watching the Avs in pre season, he plays with 0 creativity now. Very robotic style of play now. I understand fans are impatient and want to see the new prospect asap, but they don’t realize rushing a player too early is almost a guarantee that they’ll stunt their development long term.

 

[coooldude]

To your last point, that’s true. But the recent draft results, 19 Canadians (17 from the CHL) compared to 4 Americans in the first round and less than 40 kids drafted in total shows that the chl is in a good place, and it’s USA hockey that’s on notice. That’s also why this move was welcomed, ncaa teams know usa hockey at the youth level has plateaud and isn’t pumping out the requisite amount of elite talent. Sure they’ll have the odd year like the 01’s and the 04’s, but overall it’s a regressive program and college hockey is getting worse, not better. There’s like 8 good minor hockey programs in the entire USA, and that’s due to the high end costs and travel issues, which I get. But you can’t sustain a ncaa with over 60 D1 teams when your drafts look like that and the youth model is falling apart. Hence the CHL players coming. You see guys like Donovan McCoy, a good OHL’er for sure but not high end commit to a big time Hockey East school and will probably be a top 5 D in college hockey next season. Cedrick Guindon commits to Vermont and could be a premier player j hockey east next season.

All makes sense. My continued and consistent message in all my posts is that if/when the NHL-AHL-CHL agreement comes to fruition, it will likely align all the incentives to stay in that pipeline, and top-end NCAA will stay as it is which is a non-traditional but legitimate route.

 

[jtechkid]

To your last point, that’s true. But the recent draft results, 19 Canadians (17 from the CHL) compared to 4 Americans in the first round and less than 40 kids drafted in total shows that the chl is in a good place, and it’s USA hockey that’s on notice. That’s also why this move was welcomed, ncaa teams know usa hockey at the youth level has plateaud and isn’t pumping out the requisite amount of elite talent. Sure they’ll have the odd year like the 01’s and the 04’s, but overall it’s a regressive program and college hockey is getting worse, not better. There’s like 8 good minor hockey programs in the entire USA, and that’s due to the high end costs and travel issues, which I get. But you can’t sustain a ncaa with over 60 D1 teams when your drafts look like that and the youth model is falling apart. Hence the CHL players coming. You see guys like Donovan McCoy, a good OHL’er for sure but not high end commit to a big time Hockey East school and will probably be a top 5 D in college hockey next season. Cedrick Guindon commits to Vermont and could be a premier player j hockey east next season.

great points more i think usa youth hockey has stalled or plateau a lot because of the cost and the politics involved . NTDP turned into political machine with lot of the picks as wtf picks lol ? I think this new rule should finish ntdp which is good news for USA hockey . USA kids going to CHL will dramatically help their development as most of coaching , facilities are lot better . however ,ncaa hockey its not as bad as people say as nhl rosters( top of my head ) are around prob 300 every year and ncaa graduation rate is probably 90-95% .

 

[Leviathan899]

This is a good point that I think gets lost when people bring up the CHL-NHL agreement changing in the future. Some think that if the agreement changes so that CHLers can join the AHL right away that every single 1st and 2nd rounder will move up at 18. There are 1 or 2 guys every year that would do well in the AHL before 20. But for the most part, the only thing that would happen with most players if they joined the AHL early, is that they would learn how to survive in the AHL. They wouldn't develop their games. No one has ever been hurt by an extra year of junior hockey. Plenty has been hurt by being rushed up a level because of impatience.

Well said, totally agree. We want these players to hit the pro level with confidence and a fully developed body/skill set which allows them to succeed and produce at that level, not merely survive and blend in. The New York Rangers were wise with Will Cuylle, they had him in the AHL at 18 due to Covid and had the opportunity to keep him at 19, but sent him back to Windsor where he played with Wyatt Johnston. Now he’s a solid NHL middle 6 forward. Could that still have happened if he stayed in the AHL at 19? Maybe, but I think that 19 year old season playing with an elite talent in Johnston and going on a long run with Windsor paid off huge.

 

[Breakers]

it’s surprising how many people still don’t get that foreign players can’t get NIL deals, and still vastly overrate NIL money in general for a non-headcount/equivalency sport

 

[MeHateHe]

This is a point that’s rarely stated but is excellent, imo. Puck touches and confidence are two major components in development. Too often players are rushed to the next level because they’re deemed “too good” for junior (a line I can’t stand) and then move up and are stunted in their development, as they are then battling for a lineup spot or don’t get as much PP or PK time. Aren’t the go to guys and their games are molded to just fit in and play the system, stripping them of their creativity and skill level. JL Foudy is one of the best examples of this recently imo. Went to the AHL due to the Covid year and the exceptions for CHL players. He was a good OHL player with potential but wasn’t even PPG in Windsor yet, but he could really skate. I think 2 more years in Windsor would have allowed his skill set to develop at a good pace and he’d build more confidence, and then he’d enter pro two years later as a much more well rounded prospect. Now, he’s a bottom 6 AHL’er and watching the Avs in pre season, he plays with 0 creativity now. Very robotic style of play now. I understand fans are impatient and want to see the new prospect asap, but they don’t realize rushing a player too early is almost a guarantee that they’ll stunt their development long term.

Canadian hockey went through a bad patch of stunted creativity, because we had teams focused so much on winning that they preferred players who would dump and chase, and then trap in the neutral zone. Combine that with officiating standards that allowed defenders to hook, hold and obstruct, and next thing you know, Rob Zaumner is an Olympian.

Last** point I'll make is that while this decision to allow CHLers to play NCAA may seem like a move that will change everything, human history is one of evolution, not revolution. And that's for a reason: we adapt. Major junior will change to accommodate the needs of players who might want to find another avenue, or they risk losing that subset of players. Junior A will adapt because the cohort of players who were naturally drawn to their stream now have other options. NCAA will rethink its recruiting options. CIS will target a different subset of players. Things will look a little different, but I don't see leagues dying or merging or completely blowing up over this. If they do, they were pretty weak to begin with.

**Haha. No, it's not my last point. I always have other points - some of them good.

 

[Leviathan899]

So basically OnlyFans for college sports lmao this is all so sad and pathetic imo.

 

[MeHateHe]

So basically OnlyFans for college sports lmao this is all so sad and pathetic imo.

Welcome to the gig economy, comrade. Everything is day labour.

 

[Leviathan899]

Welcome to the gig economy, comrade. Everything is day labour.

Next thing is they’ll be auctioning off their game worn socks and shin pads. What a world!

 

[Wieters]

So basically OnlyFans for college sports lmao this is all so sad and pathetic imo.

What is sad and pathetic? Athletes who generate money for their universities being compensated?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Evan Werner is an 03 and Michigan’s 2nd leading scoring, he’s also 5’7 and couldn’t make the CHL during his 16-19 year old seasons. Simply not skilled enough.

William Whitelaw was a third round pick coming off his age 17 season in the USHL. On the same team, Werner has five more points than him right now. Whitelaw could certainly make the WHL, unless you think there's no spot for a third round pick in the WHL, which is of course nonsense, as looking at the most mid team in the league, Swift Current (currently a +/- 0 goal differential), they have one player that's actively drafted on the whole roster (a 5th round pick in the 2024 Draft) plus another unsigned former pick, now Free Agent.

Swift Current lines form most game



Birnie (1LW) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected
Caswell (1C) - 2024 5th round pick
Mistelbacher (1LW) - eligible for 2024 Draft, once unselected

Gauchier (2LW) - 2025 First Time Draft Eligible (4 career WHL points)
Gould (2C) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected
Dezainde (2RW) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected

Dale (3LW) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected
Gabriel (3C) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected
Coupland (3RW) - 2025 First Time Draft Eligible (49 points in 86 career WHL games)

Dingman (4LW) - 16 year old
Rookes (4RW) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected

Burzynski (1LD) - eligible for 2023 and 2024 Drafts, twice unselected
McFaul (1RD) - 2025 First Time Draft Eligible (4 career WHL points)

Johnston (2LD) - eligible for 2022, 2023 and 2024 Drafts, thrice unselected
McGregor (2RD) - 2025 First Time Draft Eligible (9 career WHL points)

Yerex (3LD) - 16 year old
Kral (3RD) - eligible for 2024 Draft, once unselected

Potter (7th D) - 16 year old

Rocha (1G) - eligible for 2024 Draft, once unselected
Dyck (2G) - 6th round in 2022 Draft, unsigned, eligible for 2024 Draft, unselected

 

[Leviathan899]

What is sad and pathetic? Athletes who generate money for their universities being compensated?

Just seems crazy Charlie Stramel can adversities and charge people to attend an event. Or charge for an autograph. I realize we live in a world where literally everything needs to be commodified and sold, but come on.

 

[Wieters]

Just seems crazy Charlie Stramel can adversities and charge people to attend an event. Or charge for an autograph. I realize we live in a world where literally everything needs to be commodified and sold, but come on.

If people want to pay for these services, then who cares? It sounds like you're grasping at straws to continue on in your anti-NCAA screed.

This is also not representative of what NIL is and I don't think many college athletes are making any actual money off of this.

 

[jtechkid]

most scouts think quebec league is lot worse ushl .

 

[bigdog16]

No, it isn’t and you guys repeating this doesn’t make it true. CHL has far more high end skill and overall talent than the entire NCAA has combined. Evan Werner is an 03 and Michigan’s 2nd leading scoring, he’s also 5’7 and couldn’t make the CHL during his 16-19 year old seasons. Simply not skilled enough. The best players in all of college hockey are all junior eligible guys as well, dispelling the myth older players are in fact better. College is a good route for those who need more time to fill out and get stronger. Yeah yeah, people will say well Celebrini, Power and Fantilli went to NCAA and they’re elite players. Of course, but for those 3, you can name 10 more who went CHL and are just as good. Plus, once Perrault, Hagens and Leonard leave BC after this season, there’s going to be a significant drop in talent in the ncaa. Think about it, the 06 NTDP team wasn’t very good outside of Hagens, Eiserman and Hensler, which affects the quality of the ncaa. The 07’s coming in next year from the NTDP aren’t good at all, and these are the best 07 Americans coming in to fill ncaa rosters, at the big schools to boot. The 08 NTDP team just came 5th at the U17’s and outside of Berchild, Beuker and a couple of others, not a high end group either. Naurato pumping up Michigan is no surprise, but he’s an arrogant SOB and someone who will be exposed in a few years as a bad coach, but the resources and big name appeal of Michigan saves him for now.

The worst NCAA teams wipe the floor with any team in the CHL. Its men vs boys and a massive disparity. CIS teams beat CHL teams, NCAA teams beat CIS teams.

 

[Corso]

All makes sense. My continued and consistent message in all my posts is that if/when the NHL-AHL-CHL agreement comes to fruition, it will likely align all the incentives to stay in that pipeline, and top-end NCAA will stay as it is which is a non-traditional but legitimate route.

CHL held a conference meeting prior to the NCAA decision, the meeting also featured Gary Bettman. From what I was told, this is exactly what the CHL pitched to Bettman; "Make sure that the pipeline remains CHL-AHL-NHL" Most player agents are on board with this. Lost in all of this discussion is what the AHL owners want. They want the young budding stars prior to their NHL debuts. They do not want to see the topflight players spending two to three years in the NCAA and then straight to the NHL.

This is the headwind facing top NCAA programs. It is not up against the CHL for the top 19- and 20-year-old but powerful interests (NHLPA, AHL and player agents) that want to see top prospects signed much sooner rather than later.

I still think the draw of college will still entice some high-end prospects, particularly American born ones, to delay signing their ELCs and play college hockey for a year or two but I do not expect a mass exodus of the top 18–20-year-old players. I see the NCAA as being the preferred route for those drafted in the third round on down; players who will not be ready for the AHL at 20 or even 21.

 

[Leviathan899]

The worst NCAA teams wipe the floor with any team in the CHL. Its men vs boys and a massive disparity. CIS teams beat CHL teams, NCAA teams beat CIS teams.

Wrong on every level. For one CIS teams have never played CHL teams. The NTDP has beaten ncaa teams before, so therefore NTDP>NCAA? You think a team of low end 23-24 year olds who won’t even be good enough for the ECHL would beat London? Lmao. Not to mention hundreds of CHL players every year go to nhl camps and play with and against current NHL’ers, and many even play NHL pre season games, so they’re more than capable of handling older players.

 

[Blue and Green]

most scouts think quebec league is lot worse ushl .

Considerably fewer draftees from Q than from USHL, but I don't think that the level of play is worse. CHL has kept more of its drafted talent for their age 18 and 19 seasons; USHL loses most of those guys to NCAA.

 

[Leviathan899]

Considerably fewer draftees from Q than from USHL, but I don't think that the level of play is worse. CHL has kept more of its drafted talent for their age 18 and 19 seasons; USHL loses most of those guys to NCAA.

That’s due primarily to the length of time NHL teams have to sign CHL players imo. If CHL players had 4 years to sign rather than 2, you’d see teams take a lot more of them in the 4-7 range.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Lost in all of this discussion is what the AHL owners want. They want the young budding stars prior to their NHL debuts. They do not want to see the topflight players spending two to three years in the NCAA and then straight to the NHL.

Most AHL teams are owned directly by their NHL affiliate, honestly the ones that aren't (Hershey Bears, Chicago Wolves, Charlotte Checkers, Milwaukee Admirals, etc.) are usually the ones that go the heaviest on veteran players because they're trying to win, not develop prospects.

 

[Corso]

Most AHL teams are owned directly by their NHL affiliate, honestly the ones that aren't (Hershey Bears, Chicago Wolves, Charlotte Checkers, Milwaukee Admirals, etc.) are usually the ones that go the heaviest on veteran players because they're trying to win, not develop prospects.

Most but not all. These markets crave star power as much as they do wins.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I still think the draw of college will still entice some high-end prospects, particularly American born ones, to delay signing their ELCs and play college hockey for a year or two but I do not expect a mass exodus of the top 18–20-year-old players. I see the NCAA as being the preferred route for those drafted in the third round on down; players who will not be ready for the AHL at 20 or even 21.

Again, current NCAA-bound high-end players now going to the CHL because maintain their college eligibility and now just having their rights held hostage until they're 20 and signing ELCs and bypassing college entirely, makes the least sense out of all potential outcomes. High-end NCAA players aren't there simply because they couldn't secure an ELC.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Most but not all. These markets crave star power as much as they do wins.

By that same token, shouldn't AHL owners (all 10 or whatever there are) have been pounding their fists up and down to have the CHL-NHL Transfer Agreement amended to allow 18-19 year olds to play in the AHL, as "star power"?

They don't because Independent AHL teams mostly want to be competitive and get playoff revenue as well as give the local community something to cheer for. Many independent teams aren't even that close to the NHL affiliate, and that's whose fans are going to be the most interested in seeing next wave players. I think this is a misread of the AHL, the independent owners probably don't care that much about any of this, and would be out-numbered within their own league by direct NHL ownership anyways.

 

[Corso]

Again, current NCAA-bound high-end players now going to the CHL because maintain their college eligibility and now just having their rights held hostage until they're 20 and signing ELCs and bypassing college entirely, makes the least sense out of all potential outcomes. High-end NCAA players aren't there simply because they couldn't secure an ELC.

As I said, I believe that (for now) a good percentage of high-end American players will still choose to play college hockey for at least a year or two before signing. I don't expect that most players, however, will delay signing ELC just to play college hockey for a year.

By that same token, shouldn't AHL owners (all 10 or whatever there are) have been pounding their fists up and down to have the CHL-NHL Transfer Agreement amended to allow 18-19 year olds to play in the AHL, as "star power"?

They don't because Independent AHL teams mostly want to be competitive and get playoff revenue as well as give the local community something to cheer for. Many independent teams aren't even that close to the NHL affiliate, and that's whose fans are going to be the most interested in seeing next wave players. I think this is a misread of the AHL, the independent owners probably don't care that much about any of this, and would be out-numbered within their own league by direct NHL ownership anyways.

Believe me, changes are coming to the CHL-NHL agreement.

 

[Leviathan899]

If people want to pay for these services, then who cares? It sounds like you're grasping at straws to continue on in your anti-NCAA screed.

This is also not representative of what NIL is and I don't think many college athletes are making any actual money off of this.

Just attempting to counter the widespread and ignorant POV that the CHL sucks and is a children’s league and the best place ever to develop is the ncaa.