CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[SergeConstantin74]

I guess you have nothing better to do than argue about pure hypotheticals with nothing concrete behind it for 31 pages.

I can say I’m as guilty as anyone to participate, but I personally do wonder sometimes why I do so.

Isn't that the essence of message boards? Debating topics with little knowledge or authority on the matter?

 

[Bubbles]

Curious: how much NIL money do you think a hockey player might get at Michigan? Given that football and basketball are still dominant sports there, and given that college hockey generally speaking is not a huge money maker, just how much lolly do you suppose a college player who is likely to spend no more than two seasons at the school is going to get?

Doesnt answer your question exactly, but the top nil earner (all football) is Shedeur Sanders at $5.1 million. Someone else posted that BU guys got 150k. Not insignificant but pales in comparison to the football and basketball guys.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Isn't that the essence of message boards? Debating topics with little knowledge or authority on the matter?

Yeah, I agree. I’m poking some fun at myself and maybe a few of you guys too.

The initial person that responded to me took it very seriously and wanted to debate it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Doesnt answer your question exactly, but the top nil earner (all football) is Shedeur Sanders at $5.1 million. Someone else posted that BU guys got 150k. Not insignificant but pales in comparison to the football and basketball guys.

No wonder they had to let CHL players in, they were kept out before because they were getting $50-60 a week CDN, and weren’t classified as amateur.

 

[Wieters]

Doesnt answer your question exactly, but the top nil earner (all football) is Shedeur Sanders at $5.1 million. Someone else posted that BU guys got 150k. Not insignificant but pales in comparison to the football and basketball guys.

There is an incoming quarterback to college football next year, Bryce Underwood, who is reportedly going to get between $10 million to $12 million. And that commitment is to... Michigan.

So you're right that the big-time money hasn't necessarily made its way into college hockey yet, but there is infrastructure in place at some of the schools that play college hockey to raise serious funds for college sports. Even just a portion of it being diverted to college hockey would be significant if the school finds it profitable or an alumnus takes it on as a pet project. NIL is a very new invention, so the kinks haven't been sorted out yet.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

There is an incoming quarterback to college football next year, Bryce Underwood, who is reportedly going to get between $10 million to $12 million. And that commitment is to... Michigan.

So you're right that the big-time money hasn't necessarily made its way into college hockey yet, but there is infrastructure in place at some of the schools that play college hockey to raise serious funds for college sports. Even just a portion of it being diverted to college hockey would be significant if the school finds it profitable or an alumnus takes it on as a pet project. NIL is a very new invention, so the kinks haven't been sorted out yet.

Would be interesting if high profile guys like Ryan Whitney donate money to their alma matters.

 

[Wieters]

Would be interesting if high profile guys like Ryan Whitney donate money to their alma matters.

I think that could definitely play a role. Spittin Chiclets has begun to feature a lot more college hockey content, which I think reflects how the NCAA is gaining visibility with the general public since that is easily the most popular hockey content brand in the US. They just had Jay Pandolfo on their episode today. But as an alum of the other school down Comm Ave, I hope not in that specific case

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Carter MacAdams (2004, WHL, Tri City Americans) commits to Northern Michigan.

 

[Corso]

Doesnt answer your question exactly, but the top nil earner (all football) is Shedeur Sanders at $5.1 million. Someone else posted that BU guys got 150k. Not insignificant but pales in comparison to the football and basketball guys.

It is the wild wild west right now in NCAA football. These players are essentially getting paid by booster collectives while not really trading on their NIL. The House Settlement is trying to rein collectives in by having an arbitrator review if the money received is actually for a real business related purpose or simply a bag of money for just being who the athlete happens to be.

B.U. (through whatever collective it formed) paid a select group (three players) 50k per year. That is the highest total that I have heard of so far. Michigan certainly has the resources (for now) to match that if it so chooses on whoever. The problem that Michigan is currently experiencing, however, is that a massive (and I mean massive) amount of money now needs to flow into the football program and that is what the vast majority of donors(collectives) are focusing on right now.

There is the belief that NCAA hockey programs have unlimited budgets that can compete with pro leagues. The fact of the matter is that there is a growing concern that the majority of future revenue and expenses will need to flow into the revenue sports (football, lesser extent BB) leaving less for the non revenue sports. The hockey program at Michigan draws in enough fans and support to keep the program where it is currently at, but don't expect the school to begin competing against the NHL and E.L.C.s As some posters have said, high end prospects won't necessarily be swayed by the college life and all its amenities.

I've maintained through out this thread that the CHL will gain the majority of elite 16 and 17 year old talent (both Canadian and American) but the NCAA will pluck some of those good ones at 18 and 19. What will really tell the tale is the upcoming changes to the NHL CHL agreement and the entry draft. Once those become clear, so will a lot of the other topics we are discussing/debating.

 

[jtechkid]

Unless players are in a bad situation on their team and want out, I doubt the CHL will lose much 18-19 yo to the NCAA.

Do you understand that if a player is doing well and progressing, the NHL teams aren't going to want them to change leagues for their development.

I'm just including them as one of the blue blood hockey programs alongside the other ones I listed; it wasn't some specific inclusion. I suppose I should have included Wisconsin and possibly Michigan State to make clear I was just naming the elite programs. And besides, Minnesota might need to change their recruiting approach with the shifting landscape.


They might be treated well, but a CHL organization can't compete with the resources/network of a school like Michigan, and they can't offer the lifestyle of a college athlete. How much that matters will depend on the individual, but it's not irrelevant. Again, it's all right in that video; the people at Michigan are expressly saying this, it's not like I'm making this up here.


Sure, that's plausible. It could also be the case that it becomes a rite of passage for even these types of kids to go to the NCAA for a year since college hockey is a level that most NHL players will have gone through themselves at one point. We're just guessing at this point.

Long term predictions:
-NHL raises draft age to 19.
-Everyone in NA is going to NCAA for draft season (scouts love an even playing field)
-NCAA hockey explodes in popularity and the players make money off of NIL deals (everyone wins).
-CHL become an 18 year olds league. You can still play until 20, but very few NHL prospects do.
-CHL gate suffers significantly
-USHL doesn’t cease to exist, but quality of the league takes a big hit as the level of play more closely resembles a high end U18AAA team.
-The best USHL programs move the CHL

I’m sure plenty of these will be wrong tho

Best post ive seen so far !

 

[jtechkid]

what is strange is Its been reported that Nahl will add more than 6 teams on the west coast . nahl is becoming irrelevant but hey lets dilute more with 6 new teams . lol

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

what is strange is Its been reported that Nahl will add more than 6 teams on the west coast . nahl is becoming irrelevant but hey lets dilute more with 6 new teams . lol

Well, the NAHL still has a role in the College and Professional landscape. It’s long been a producer of D3 and lower end division 1 players. There’s going to be trickle down from other league and players that need places to go.

 

[jtechkid]

Well, the NAHL still has a role in the College and Professional landscape. It’s long been a producer of D3 and lower end division 1 players. There’s going to be trickle down from other league and players that need places to go.

With the new rule change its more than likely going to be the USHL - what happens to the ncdc - become a feeder for club hockey ? its getting ridiculous with 20 year kids hangin Rd for div 3- club and entering work force at 24-25age .

 

[Bubbles]

It is the wild wild west right now in NCAA football. These players are essentially getting paid by booster collectives while not really trading on their NIL. The House Settlement is trying to rein collectives in by having an arbitrator review if the money received is actually for a real business related purpose or simply a bag of money for just being who the athlete happens to be.

B.U. (through whatever collective it formed) paid a select group (three players) 50k per year. That is the highest total that I have heard of so far. Michigan certainly has the resources (for now) to match that if it so chooses on whoever. The problem that Michigan is currently experiencing, however, is that a massive (and I mean massive) amount of money now needs to flow into the football program and that is what the vast majority of donors(collectives) are focusing on right now.

There is the belief that NCAA hockey programs have unlimited budgets that can compete with pro leagues. The fact of the matter is that there is a growing concern that the majority of future revenue and expenses will need to flow into the revenue sports (football, lesser extent BB) leaving less for the non revenue sports. The hockey program at Michigan draws in enough fans and support to keep the program where it is currently at, but don't expect the school to begin competing against the NHL and E.L.C.s As some posters have said, high end prospects won't necessarily be swayed by the college life and all its amenities.

 

[Habsrule]

Just thinking out loud but would something like this work for a CHL / AHL / NCAA / NHL agreement.

Draft age stays at 18.

Any players drafted have four years to sign their ELC. (This gives all CHL drafted players a longer runway to get drafted from the CHL and then to go NCAA afterwards)

Minimum age to play in the AHL is 20 except for 1st round picks and they can play at 19. (This will give players more of an incentive to get picked in the first round and teams may think a little harder as to who would be capable of playing AHL a year earlier)

I like that last rule of 19 year old first rounders can play in the AHL. If you look at the draft from two years ago these would be the eligible players and how they are doing on the year. I’m only listing CHL players.

Yager #14 - 30 points in 21 games
Barlow #18 - 16 points in 24 games
Bonk #22 - 21 points in 22 games (defenceman)
Molendyk #24 - 17 points in 19 games (defenceman)
Musty #26 - 20 points in 11 games
Ritchie #27 - 33 points in 15 games
Cowen #28 - 25 points in 18 games

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Andrew and Jacob LeBlanc (2004, OHL, North Bay Battalion) to Princeton. Both once highly touted, didn't progress as much as they'd have liked in junior.

 

[Corso]

This is exactly what the NIL was meant to be, an athlete trading on his fame for dollars. It was never envisioned to be a 10-million-dollar deal, with little in the way of actual work, funded in part by a billionaire for the top football recruit in the country. This is what the House Settlement will try to rein in, but who knows how successful the NCAA will be?

As for Charlie Stramel, I think it's a safe bet that he will not earn anywhere close to six figures in selling his name for cash.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

This is exactly what the NIL was meant to be, an athlete trading on his fame for dollars. It was never envisioned to be a 10-million-dollar deal, with little in the way of actual work, funded in part by a billionaire for the top football recruit in the country. This is what the House Settlement will try to rein in, but who knows how successful the NCAA will be?

As for Charlie Stramel, I think it's a safe bet that he will not earn anywhere close to six figures in selling his name for cash.

Agreed. Stramel better off just running hockey camps in Michigan and back home in Minnesota before he gets his ELC.

 

[Corso]

A nice article by NYT on the value of NIL earnings per sport. Hockey comes in at just 3500 a year.

In College Sports’ Big Money Era, Here’s Where the Dollars Go

On average, $1 million for S.E.C. quarterbacks; guards who earn a quarter of that: The New York Times examined the so-called Black Book, a kind of Zillow for college sports, that details athletes’ expected annual pay.

www.nytimes.com

 

[bigdog16]

I do wonder what the NCAA would look like without football carrying the financial load. There has always been rumblings about the upper echelon of football schools disbanding from NCAA. I know that is an entirely different can of worms, just a thought

 

[WarriorofTime]

The line between intended theoretical NIL and pay-for-play has always been so blurry and why NCAA was so against it that once legislatures took action, they just threw their hands up and said good luck rather than try and regulate. NCAA is a terrible organization.

 

[Corso]

I do wonder what the NCAA would look like without football carrying the financial load. There has always been rumblings about the upper echelon of football schools disbanding from NCAA. I know that is an entirely different can of worms, just a thought

Rumblings are growing. There is now open talk of having players sign contracts, which by definition, would mean that they are employees who have a right to collective bargaining. What would be the purpose of an organization like the NCAA then??

I believe, that unless Congress acts to curtail NIL and player compensation (an unlikely event), it is only a matter of (short) time before the full professionalization of NCAA football and basketball happens.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Bowling Green is going to be an interesting case study next year. They’ve added quite a few CHLers for next season. If they get to the tourney with those guys, could make veteran CHL players a hot commodity.

Dennis Williams, being a former CHL coach as he coached the Everett Silvertips in the Dub for 7 years until this year, is a huge asset for Bowling Green. Could really turn them around from obscure small program that few recruits consider to top destination for mid tier CHLers to go to for their NCAA careers & subsequently a great program again.

 

[Leviathan899]

its not 100% better route for these CHL players but im betting its 30-50% number and tge chl celebrating now but will be crying soon when their nhl draft pick big draws head to college lol

No, it isn’t and you guys repeating this doesn’t make it true. CHL has far more high end skill and overall talent than the entire NCAA has combined. Evan Werner is an 03 and Michigan’s 2nd leading scoring, he’s also 5’7 and couldn’t make the CHL during his 16-19 year old seasons. Simply not skilled enough. The best players in all of college hockey are all junior eligible guys as well, dispelling the myth older players are in fact better. College is a good route for those who need more time to fill out and get stronger. Yeah yeah, people will say well Celebrini, Power and Fantilli went to NCAA and they’re elite players. Of course, but for those 3, you can name 10 more who went CHL and are just as good. Plus, once Perrault, Hagens and Leonard leave BC after this season, there’s going to be a significant drop in talent in the ncaa. Think about it, the 06 NTDP team wasn’t very good outside of Hagens, Eiserman and Hensler, which affects the quality of the ncaa. The 07’s coming in next year from the NTDP aren’t good at all, and these are the best 07 Americans coming in to fill ncaa rosters, at the big schools to boot. The 08 NTDP team just came 5th at the U17’s and outside of Berchild, Beuker and a couple of others, not a high end group either. Naurato pumping up Michigan is no surprise, but he’s an arrogant SOB and someone who will be exposed in a few years as a bad coach, but the resources and big name appeal of Michigan saves him for now.

 

[Leviathan899]

Everything in this thread is highly subjective.

Yes, Musty chose CHL and regrets it, specifically because he's stuck there. With a transfer agreement, he wouldn't have had to make a decision 2 years ago that locks him in. He could have had a good D+1 in Sudbury and then moved onto an NCAA program since Sudbury couldn't/didn't trade him.

Dickinson is crushing it at London in his D+1. A NCAA program may not match the volume of competition, but best-on-best in NCAA is very arguably as good or better as CHL and the schedule might actually be better for his development. I think the best outcome for him is AHL next year, but if that's not possible for him/others in the future, then it is very possible that some players might choose NCAA over spending D+2 even more dominantly in e.g. London.

The alumni list of the Knights is great, and all the past stats of how great the CHL is, but that doesn't mean it will always be the only and obviously best route for good to great prospects. Note that nothing in my post ever said "this is definitively going to become the #1 route for players." I was only making cases for where it might be the best route. Surely you can see that more options might be better for some. Or maybe I'm overestimating and you just think the CHL is best and will always be best for every prospect.

To your last point, that’s true. But the recent draft results, 19 Canadians (17 from the CHL) compared to 4 Americans in the first round and less than 40 kids drafted in total shows that the chl is in a good place, and it’s USA hockey that’s on notice. That’s also why this move was welcomed, ncaa teams know usa hockey at the youth level has plateaud and isn’t pumping out the requisite amount of elite talent. Sure they’ll have the odd year like the 01’s and the 04’s, but overall it’s a regressive program and college hockey is getting worse, not better. There’s like 8 good minor hockey programs in the entire USA, and that’s due to the high end costs and travel issues, which I get. But you can’t sustain a ncaa with over 60 D1 teams when your drafts look like that and the youth model is falling apart. Hence the CHL players coming. You see guys like Donovan McCoy, a good OHL’er for sure but not high end commit to a big time Hockey East school and will probably be a top 5 D in college hockey next season. Cedrick Guindon commits to Vermont and could be a premier player j hockey east next season.