Celebrini vs J. Hughes

[hamzarocks]

Hughes ceiling is Ross + hart + lindsay player

I dont think Celebrini has that level

He might be more consistent (85-95 pt player for 10/11 years once he hits hos prime) vs Hughes who could be hurt if the injuries continue to stock up

Id take Hughes for both cautiously and hope he stays healthy

 

[Panthaz89]

Celebrini is good but I just see him as a first line player really not a franchise guy.

 

[Bouboumaster]

If Celebrini ends up in Montréal, than him for both

Otherwise, Hughes for both

 

[93LEAFS]

Celebrini is good but I just see him as a first line player really not a franchise guy.

I'm not sure he's as interesting as say Matthews, MacKinnon, Bedard, and Eichel were (which would be my center tier since 2011 behind McDavid) were at their draft dates, as they all had more dynamic/unique traits. But, if a franchise center is say a consistent top 10 center in the league, I'd say he has that in him for his prime. Like, are guys like Aho, Pettersson, and Barkov franchise centers? I'd say they are. Maybe not challenging for Hart Trophies or end of season 1st or 2nd All Star teams like McDavid, Matthews, Draisatil and MacKinnon have, but still franchise centers. Like, I'd say the 1st line guys are probably in that 15 to 35 or so bunch of centers, whereas guys in the top 15 or so all have arguments for being clear cut franchise centers.

 

[dgibb10]

A bit cherry picked though, since you are pulling his first two years, and it's a higher-scoring era. If you just did their first 4 years, Matthews passes him significantly (both entered in their d+1 so that is a fair starting point).

You take Hughes in this scenario if you have faith in him staying healthy. Celebrini will bring a better 2 way game but isn't as dynamic offensively.

Matthews was better point producer as a teenager than Hughes sure. Also Matthews being 6th in this point total isn't a slight on him at all, considering he's more of a goal scorer

Also, Jack Hughes is good defensively. It is certainly no guarantee that Macklin is better 2 way than him.

 

[93LEAFS]

Matthews was better point producer as a teenager than Hughes sure.

or the last 3 years (which the timeframe for Hughes's numbers). It's just parsing stats to get the exact sample size you want to put him with Crosby and McDavid. Like, if you just used Matthews/McDavid/Crosby's first 3 years post draft, where they stand on that list doesn't materially change, same with Ovechkin (although you only get 2 seasons). It dramatically impacts where Hughes would be on that list. Like, whether you include Crosby or McDavid's first 2 years, they are still the very top of the list.

For example, over the 3 year age span your mentioning, Matthews was 10th in the league overall in all situations p/60, Hughes was 13th. Also, all situations p/60 and such are generally aren't that indictive of things, for example, they penalize any player on the penalty kill (not that it applies to Matthews or Hughes).

 

[ijuka]

Here is a complete list of players to score at a higher rate (points/60) than Jack Hughes from ages 20-22 since 2006

Sidney Crosby (3.74)
Connor McDavid (3.89)

Jack Hughes is at 3.6, Ovi and Malkin trail right behind

Then a gap to 3.41 where you get to Pasta and Matthews

Misleading since Hughes's age 20-22 seasons were during a much higher-scoring era...

 

[dgibb10]

or the last 3 years (which the timeframe for Hughes's numbers). It's just parsing stats to get the exact sample size you want to put him with Crosby and McDavid. Like, if you just used Matthews/McDavid/Crosby's first 3 years post draft, where they stand on that list doesn't materially change, same with Ovechkin (although you only get 2 seasons). It dramatically impacts where Hughes would be on that list. Like, whether you include Crosby or McDavid's first 2 years, they are still the very top of the list.

For example, over the 3 year age span your mentioning, Matthews was 10th in the league overall in all situations p/60, Hughes was 13th.

Jack Hughes wasn't productive as a teenager. Nobody is denying that. If including Jack Hughes age 18 season when he was 150 pounds soaking wet makes you feel better, go ahead and do that.

If I wanted to really cherry pick I'd have disregarded this season in which Jack Hughes spent basically the entire year (outside of the first 9 games in which he had 20 points) nursing a shoulder injury.

Or if you want I can use the REALLY arbitrary timeline of the start of 2022 until his injury vs the blues, over which he had 3.95 points/60.

Actually no I'll go back since the christmas break and add the 6 points in 2 games jack had at the end of december to put him up to 4.04 points/60

 

[93LEAFS]

Jack Hughes wasn't productive as a teenager. Nobody is denying that. If including Jack Hughes age 18 season when he was 150 pounds soaking wet makes you feel better, go ahead and do that.

If I wanted to really cherry pick I'd have disregarded this season in which Jack Hughes spent basically the entire year (outside of the first 9 games in which he had 20 points) nursing a shoulder injury.

Or if you want I can use the REALLY arbitrary timeline of the start of 2022 until his injury vs the blues, over which he had 3.95 points/60.

The thing is, the other players don't move down if you include those years, and Hughes benefits against other by having entering his prime in a higher scoring era than McDavid, Matthews or Pastrnak. Like, Matthews 5v5 P/60 (a much more used statistic) relative to the league was significantly higher in that time frame, and even his all-situations one which is flawed (for example, punishes some like Marchand) was higher relative to the league.

Hughes is a great player, but you pretty much landed on the only possible metric that would group him above Matthews, Ovi and Malkin, and put him with Crosby and McDavid.

 

[dgibb10]

The thing is, the other players don't move down if you include those years, and Hughes benefits against other by having entering his prime in a higher scoring era than McDavid, Matthews or Pastrnak. Like, Matthews 5v5 P/60 (a much more used statistic) relative to the league was significantly higher in that time frame, and even his all-situations one which is flawed (for example, punishes some like Marchand) was higher relative to the league.

Hughes is a great player, but you pretty much landed on the only possible metric that would group him above Matthews, Ovi and Malkin, and put him with Crosby and McDavid.

Yes, you have come to the stunning revelation that Jack Hughes wasn't elite when he was a teenager. Wonderful detective work.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes, you have come to the stunning revelation that Jack Hughes wasn't elite when he was a teenager. Wonderful detective work.

No, that you've parsed the stats in such a way to group him probably above where he should be. Not saying he isn't great, but I don't think 20-22 year old Hughes is better than guys like Matthews, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc at the same age group. All 3 were better relative to the league for those ages (when you look at the one rate statistic you've picked) for those ages.

My point was you cherry picked one very specific stat all situations p/60 (which itself is a flawed stat and not how people tend to use rate statistics), and then used it to put him with those 2. For example, Matthews 5v5 p/60 in a lower scoring era between 2017/18 and 2019/20 is higher than Hughes from 2021/22-2023/24

 

[LokiDog]

Come on, this is like voting for Laf or Kakko 3-4 years ago. Celibrini could hit on every front and not be Jack Hughes and even just being equal would be a home run. Theres no way I’m taking a prospect over Hughes right now.

 

[dgibb10]

No, that you've parsed the stats in such a way to group him probably above where he should be. Not saying he isn't great, but I don't think 20-22 year old Hughes is better than guys like Matthews, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc at the same age group. All 3 were better relative to the league for those ages (when you look at the one rate statistic you've picked) for those ages.

My point was you cherry picked one very specific stat all situations p/60 (which itself is a flawed stat and not how people tend to use rate statistics), and then used it to put him with those 2. For example, Matthews 5v5 p/60 in a lower scoring era between 2017/18 and 2019/20 is higher than Hughes from 2021/22-2023/24

Matthews ranked 10th in the league in points/60 over that time frame

Jack is 14th over the last 3 years.

And again, the point was not "Jack Hughes is better than Auston Matthews was".

The point was "The list of players to produce like Jack hughes has from age 20-22 is a VERY short one, let's not get carried away about a prospect"

But again, you want to see me cherry picking numbers I'm happy to give you cherry picked numbers

Let's look at a fully healthy Jack Hughes.

To start 21-22 he had 2 goals and 3 points in 1.5 games. He then got hurt and missed a month, and took some time adjusting when he came back. The Christmas break got him right and he had 48 points and 21 goals in 36 games to close the year. Overall, a healthy 20 year old Jack Hughes:

23 goals, 51 points, 751.5 minutes for a points/60 and goals/60 respectively of 4.07 (10th) and 1.84 (6th)

Then in 21-22 he started the year off healthy, with 35 goals and 67 points in 50 games. He got injured and took about a month to get going again (Feb 12th--> march 12th), and then he ended the year off with 7 goals and 23 points in 17 games.

Overall when healthy: 90 points, 42 goals, 1340 minutes. P/60 and G/60 of: 4.03 (7th) and 1.88 (5th)

Then this year, 20 points 5 goals in 9 games to start the year. Injured, then took about 3 weeks to get fully right. Then 23 points and 9 goals in 19 games while healthy before getting hurt again. Overall, 43 points, 14 goals, 587.5 minutes.

4.39 p/60 (4th), 1.43 g/60 (37th).

Or, overall

184 points, 79 goals, 2680 minutes.

Or 1.77 g/60, 4.12 p/60, behind only Kucherov, Mackinnon, and Mcdavid for points, and only Matthews, Pastrnak, and Forsberg for goals over the last 3 years. Now that's f***ing cherry picking

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Celebrini very easily. I guess a lot of you haven't been watching him dominate the NCAA this year.

Hughes is also an injury prone mess.

Completely, stunningly rent free.

 

[93LEAFS]

Matthews ranked 10th in the league in points/60 over that time frame

Jack is 14th over the last 3 years.

And again, the point was not "Jack Hughes is better than Auston Matthews was".

The point was "The list of players to produce like Jack hughes has from age 20-22 is a VERY short one, let's not get carried away about a prospect"

But again, you want to see me cherry picking numbers I'm happy to give you cherry picked numbers

Let's look at a fully healthy Jack Hughes.

To start 21-22 he had 2 goals and 3 points in 1.5 games. He then got hurt and missed a month, and took some time adjusting when he came back. The Christmas break got him right and he had 48 points and 21 goals in 36 games to close the year. Overall, a healthy 20 year old Jack Hughes:

23 goals, 51 points, 751.5 minutes for a points/60 and goals/60 respectively of 4.07 (10th) and 1.84 (6th)

Then in 21-22 he started the year off healthy, with 35 goals and 67 points in 50 games. He got injured and took about a month to get going again (Feb 12th--> march 12th), and then he ended the year off with 7 goals and 23 points in 17 games.

Overall when healthy: 90 points, 42 goals, 1340 minutes. P/60 and G/60 of: 4.03 (7th) and 1.88 (5th)

Then this year, 20 points 5 goals in 9 games to start the year. Injured, then took about 3 weeks to get fully right. Then 23 points and 9 goals in 19 games while healthy before getting hurt again. Overall, 43 points, 14 goals, 587.5 minutes.

4.39 p/60 (4th), 1.43 g/60 (37th).

Or, overall

184 points, 79 goals, 2680 minutes.

Or 1.77 g/60, 4.12 p/60, behind only Kucherov, Mackinnon, and Mcdavid for points, and only Matthews, Pastrnak, and Forsberg for goals over the last 3 years. Now that's f***ing cherry picking

Hughes is 25th in 5v5 P/60 over the past 3 years (Hischier and Bratt are actually ahead of him). Which is the much more commonly used p/60 metric, and if you want to do just even strength it's (13th but ahead of Bratt and Hischeir). Which are generally how rate statistics are used.

He's a great young player and I'd take him over Celebrini. I'd say what you did there is a way more extreme version of cherry picking, the first one was still parsing stats and it's basically the only one's pickable where he becomes the best producer between 20-22 who is currently in the league.

 

[dgibb10]

Hughes is 25th in 5v5 P/60 over the past 3 years (Hischier and Bratt are actually ahead of him). Which is the much more commonly used p/60 metric, and if you want to do just even strength it's (13th but ahead of Bratt and Hischeir). Which are generally how rate statistics are used.

He's a great young player and I'd take him over Celebrini. I'd say what you did there is a way more extreme version of cherry picking, the first one was still parsing stats and it's basically the only one's pickable where he becomes the best producer between 20-22 who is currently in the league.

Jack Hughes is an absolute ENGINE for the power play and arguably the best 3 on 3 and 4 on 4 player in the NHL so yeah that completely checks out

Without Jack over the last 3 years, the devils PP is 23/156 (14.7%)
With Jack Hughes, the Power play is at 21%.


Nico and Bratt are very underrated for what they do at even strength I agree

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hughes is 25th in 5v5 P/60 over the past 3 years (Hischier and Bratt are actually ahead of him). Which is the much more commonly used p/60 metric, and if you want to do just even strength it's (13th but ahead of Bratt and Hischeir). Which are generally how rate statistics are used.

He's a great young player and I'd take him over Celebrini. I'd say what you did there is a way more extreme version of cherry picking, the first one was still parsing stats and it's basically the only one's pickable where he becomes the best producer between 20-22 who is currently in the league.

To be fair to Jack, Bratt and Nico spend a lot of time together at 5v5, while Jack is often saddled with Erik Haula.

 

[93LEAFS]

To be fair to Jack, Bratt and Nico spend a lot of time together at 5v5, while Jack is often saddled with Erik Haula.

Not saying he isn't better than Bratt or Hischier. It's just the context of rate statistics. They tend to be situation-specific, someone like Barkov or Marner would be penalized just looking at all-situations since they are often used in PK situations. Which is why they generally get used as 5v5 or ES to actually extract value from them, rather than all-situations.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Not saying he isn't better than Bratt or Hischier. It's just the context of rate statistics. They tend to be situation-specific, someone like Barkov or Marner would be penalized just looking at all-situations since they are often used in PK situations. Which is why they generally get used as 5v5 or ES to actually extract value from them, rather than all-situations.

Yeah for sure.

For me, Hughes is certainly not in the Crosby / McDavid class. But I do have him in the tier below, with guys like Matthews, Mackinnon, and Eichel. When he's healthy, I think he's shown that he has the talent to compete for the top spot of that group.

For centers drafted from 2012 up through 2024, here's how I'd group them up (a lot of emphasis on play driving, defensive game, and ability to matchup in a playoff series):

Generational
McDavid

Elite Franchise centers
Mackinnon
Eichel
Matthews
Barkov
Hughes
Bedard**
Draisaitl

Franchise centers
Carlsson**
Aho
Pettersson
Point
Stutzle
Thompson
Hischier

Legit 1st line centers
Barzal
Larkin
Fantilli**
Celebrini**
Hintz
Cooley**
Thomas
Beniers**
Lambert**

**My personal projections. Could slide up or down a tier depending on development, or even fall off list completely if they never become full time centers.

 

[TBF1972]

Celebrini very easily. I guess a lot of you haven't been watching him dominate the NCAA this year.

Hughes is also an injury prone mess.

talking about mess

 

[Plastic Joseph]

this is the textbook "mystery box vs a boat" argument where you have 2 players who were roughly on equal footing as prospects but one is already in the NHL and has met expectations vs one who is still a prospect.

Is it possible Celebrini surpasses Hughes? Sure, but its not likely. So much can happen I would take the surefire superstar over a potential one any day of the week.

You basically have to be a Bedard or McDavid level prospect to be taken over Hughes in a poll like this, and Celebrini isn't that.

FWIW I actually think Hughes was flat out better as a prospect than Celebrini is so even if we just take into account pre-NHL I would still take Hughes. Celebrini plays a more rounded game but the offensive upside of Hughes swings it for me

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I like Hughes a lot, this is Celebrini for me though, I personally find him to be the most interesting prospect since Ovechkin and Crosby entered the league. Hughes will outscore him career wise I am sure, but I think the Celebrini upside is there to be one of the most impactful players in the league.

 

[Golden_Jet]

No, that you've parsed the stats in such a way to group him probably above where he should be.

get used to it, renowned for cherry picking.

 

[dirtydanglez]

id take jack and not look back.

 

[Xirik]

get used to it, renowned for cherry picking.

A guy with 758 post is renowned for something?