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Celebrini for Calder

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Cellu is gonna take the Calder. His talent level, complete game. It’s unmatched. He’s beat out Bedard too for good measure. If not for injury he’d be well over 20 pts already.

I fully expect 80+ pts by seasons end and 100pts is not our of the question. He’s truly generational. Way better than I expected. And he hast he mindset to grow more and more. His rookie season could be up there with mcdavid and the like, far ahead of McKinnon and some other superstars.
 
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Hodge said:
Enough with your meaningless negative drivel
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Actually hilarious

Hodge said:
It's not a reach it's his actual statistics. Enough with your meaningless negative drivel. It's going to age about as well as your prediction that there's no way Celebrini beats out Michkov, Stankoven and Lane Hutson (lmao) for the Calder.
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You couldn't possible be more purposefully misrepresentative of what I have said in other threads on these topics, so I choose to be charitable and believe instead that you just have terrible reading comprehension, few people have pumped Celebrini's tires harder than I have on this board, but go off
 
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All true:
1. It's too early to indicate whether Macklin is going to be a historically top faceoff rookie yet after only 15 games
2. It's a great start!
3. But it's been against a light schedule
4. But he's only 18 and he looks to be getting better!
5. Faceoff % doesn't really matter all that much at the extremely abstracted level (FO% correlated with wins)
6. But faceoffs obviously definitely matter -- countless examples but all we really need is the 4 FO's that Wennberg won to get us to OT in that one single game, or the FO that Jumbo lost in his last playoff loss for the Bruins.
7. Here's a quick dive by Kraken fans
8. And here's another one by a Hawks blog in 2022 - basically, good faceoff teams generally correlate to playoff teams, bad faceoff teams generally correlate to non playoff teams. The "third factor" may just be talent,...

Opinion:
But intuitively, possession matters and faceoffs give you possession. We probably need more advanced stats like "High leverage faceoff%" as in, if you are in the OZ and need a goal or if you are in the DZ and are defending a win, what happened, and how often did it lead to a chance/goal for/against? Or... an offsides FO matters far less than an icing FO when your 4th line and 3rd pair are totally gassed and going against the other team's top line. Right now it's all washed out.
 
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If you ignore Game #1 when Mack was inexplicably credited for just 1 faceoff win out of 14 (still makes no sense, he definitely won more than 1 faceoff in that game) he's over 50% on the season. Very silly to try and downplay that from an 18 year old, even if it's "only" been around ~200 faceoffs.
 
Hodge said:
If you ignore Game #1 when Mack was inexplicably credited for just 1 faceoff win out of 14 (still makes no sense, he definitely won more than 1 faceoff in that game) he's over 50% on the season. Very silly to try and downplay that from an 18 year old, even if it's "only" been around ~200 faceoffs.
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To claim pointing out that comparing a 15 game sample size to that of a complete season is a misuse of statistics is "downplaying" an accomplishment is dishonest framing

Sorry, I'll back out the double swinging doors
 
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Celebrini was at 42% earlier. He keeps getting better at faceoffs. Would be surprised to see him over 50% at the end of the year.
 
Some fun Celebrini stats on EDGE through just 15 games:

Skating Distance - he skate a lot
  • 99th %ile for skating distance in a single period (1.62mi)
  • 98th %ile for skating distance in a single game (4.38mi)
  • 89th %ile for average skating distance / 60 of 10.23mi
Shot speed - he shoot pretty fast
  • 90th %ile for average shot speed (63.66mph)
  • 90th %ile for # shots 80-90mph (10) -- top speed of 89.08mph is 84th %ile so he fairly often gets close to his top speed
Skating speed - he hit top speed a lot, he kinda fast a lot
  • 88th %ile for speed bursts over 22mph - 4
  • top speed only 22.45 - 74th %ile, fast but not blazing
  • 78th %ile for 18-20mph speed bursts - he go kinda fast a lot
Shooting - he finish real good, he shoot a lot
  • 47SOG is 74th %ile
  • 8 goals is 81st %ile
  • 17% s% is 76 %ile
  • only 7 high danger shots - <50%ile - but 3 goals on 43% s% - that's 93%ile
  • Mid range shots not as good... 23 shots = 90%ile, but 8.7% s% is <50%ile
 
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I could see a situation that after next offseason Celebrini just becomes master of the faceoffs, because he decides so.
Very Crosby type of a player, he just decides what area he wants to work on and becomes one of the best at it. This is absurd to write as an Sharks fan, but you could just see that there is no limits with this player.
 
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sampler said:
Cellu is gonna take the Calder. His talent level, complete game. It’s unmatched. He’s beat out Bedard too for good measure. If not for injury he’d be well over 20 pts already.

I fully expect 80+ pts by seasons end and 100pts is not our of the question. He’s truly generational. Way better than I expected. And he hast he mindset to grow more and more. His rookie season could be up there with mcdavid and the like, far ahead of McKinnon and some other superstars.
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I think 60-70pnts is within reach, he’s clearly the best rookie in the league on a team with overall mid talent. he is actually making players around him better none of the other rookies in this years class or even Bedard can say that
 
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mogambomoroo said:
I could see a situation that after next offseason Celebrini just becomes master of the faceoffs, because he decides so.
Very Crosby type of a player, he just decides what area he wants to work on and becomes one of the best at it. This is absurd to write as a Sharks fan, but you could just see that there is no limits with this player.
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I was just thinking this the other day, I’m pretty sure he’s going to hit another gear this season which is absurd to think but you can just see his drive we might be talking about how much better he is then Crosby in a few years
 
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TheBigDrunkPanda said:
I was just thinking this the other day, I’m pretty sure he’s going to hit another gear this season which is absurd to think but you can just see his drive we might be talking about how much better he is then Crosby in a few years
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To be honest Celebrini feels like AI created franchise player. Perfectly balanced player with sooo much upside, it's crazy.
 
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From the latest Athletic article:

15. Sharks surge

San Jose has won four of its last five and it’s probably no coincidence that the team’s two star rookies have played their best hockey during that stretch. Here are their stat lines over the last five games.

Macklin Celebrini
4G-4A-8PTS, 50% xG, 7-3 goals, 1.75 Game Score

Will Smith
3G-4A-7PTS, 57% xG, 8-2 goals, 1.87 Game Score


Both players have looked like superstars in the making, figuring out the big leagues in real time. The most impressive aspect has been their five-on-five growth as both were getting caved in regularly to start the year. If they can keep this up, the Sharks might be able to climb out of the basement a lot faster than many think.

16. Celebrini’s ceiling

While the model is still warming up to Smith due to his usage and pedestrian five-on-five numbers, it’s already all-in on Celebrini. His projected Net Rating is already at plus-8.2, a seriously impressive mark for an 18-year-old.

Based on that, the model is projecting some real superstar upside in his future with a forecast that peaks around plus-20 during his prime. That’s Aleksander Barkov-level, an incredible feat considering Celebrini only has 16 games to his name. Perhaps the model is being a tad overzealous, but it does point to just how good Celebrini’s start has been. He’s already got superstar in his DNA.
 
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Juxtaposer said:
The blurb on Smith is encouraging to say the least (I read the article). Especially since EP has always been lower on Smith than most, it's nice to see Smith above Gauthier.

I think the top five guys are the only real Calder threats though.
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Even if Smith explodes he will have no chance since it will likely be still below his teammate.

I think Celebrini will run away with the award. I project he will finish comfortably above a PPG pace and might even still crack 80 points. He has done everything so far with limited PP opportunities.
 
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