Line Combos: CBJ Roster Discussion/Line Combos/Injury Report

[CannonFire1]

Provorov-Severson is getting some very nice xGs (59%) on the backs of a very low 2 xGA/60. But the "big mistake" continues to plague them, they've given up twice as many goals as expected.

I don't like that we went away from Christiansen-Severson. They had good xGs AND good goal results, outscoring opponents 13-10.

I also preferred the Christiansen - Severson pairing. I think the current alignment is to test drive Fabbro (who could earn an extension next to Werenski) and try to keep Provorov's trade value high. The Severson contract isn't movable right now, so Provorov will be the one to go. When that happens we may see Christiansen and Severson reunited - unless they think Mateychuk is ready for top 4 minutes.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

I'm going to try and be a lower effort poster for a little bit. So this is a mishmash of whatever I'm seeing in the last ten pages.

- Voronkov's price is going to hit the roof. This guy has never seen money in his life, we should be making big long term offers now and not wait until it's not enough. $5m long term is fine.

- More generally, I don't like that we don't have any young players under contract beyond 2027. C'mon Don!

- Cole Sillinger is not our matchup center. He's done it three or four times to mixed effect (you can look at NST's opponents feature). I don't give a guy credit for getting smoked like he did vs Kucherov. He did have a very nice game vs Toronto's top guns, though that was as Monahan's winger, and Monahan-Marchenko had much better results with Voronkov and Chinakhov.

- More generally I'm very encouraged by how much Sillinger's skating has improved and he'll be a good role player eventually, but he still isn't very good. We're still getting heavily outscored with him out there. And no that is not because he is a matchup center (he isn't) and not normal for a good matchup center anyways.

- Fantilli is also not doing great, though he has enough talent to get goals regardless. We spend most of the time in our end with him on the ice. I think all the one and done rushes and the disconnected play between teammates is a big part of it. Fantilli needs to get his head on a swivel, right now he has no idea where his teammates are.

- Most of Fantilli's game log is nights where he gets 30% or 40% of the xGs. That's really bad. His best night came in the one night he was Monahan's winger, when Fantilli was on for 77% xGs. I've been saying - for now the kid is a winger and the club will be instantly better when it stops pretending that he's currently a viable center.

- I'm just now skimming through KJ's comments about last year. The part about the coaches in video sessions telling him to change his routes and go to the net is what stands out to me. He's a perimeter player and that's actually an important role!

- People harping on Vincent for not giving KJ this type of ice time are not being realistic. If Gaudreau and Laine were on this year's team and KJ was skating as badly as he was last year then Evason would not be giving him endless rope as our top playmaker.

- Fabbro is looking good and might just be a long term fit next to Werenski. But there's nothing obvious about that yet. The underlying possession numbers aren't any different for Werenski-Fabbro from Werenski-Provorov. By my eye both pairings look good.

Welcome back! Hope all has been well

 

[thebus88]

Voronkov-Monahan-Marchenko
Johnson-Fantilli-Chinakhov
ZAR-Danforth-Olivier
Jenner-Kuraly-Sillinger

??

Chinakhov - Monahan - Marchenko
Fantilli - Jenner - Johnson
ZAR - Danforth - Olivier
Voronkov - Sillinger - Labanc

Interesting where you guys have Voronkov and Jenner. I think you are both right and both wrong. Both guys need to be higher in the lineup, though I would also be interested in a Monahan-Voronkov-Jenner 1-3C center combo.

Kuraly should come out. Then Labanc or Sillinger. I’d put JVR in more games over these other guys.

Possibly…JVR —ZAR (Jenner)—Olivier 3rd line

Or..JVR—ZAR—Danforth/Sillinger/Labanc 4th line

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[GoJackets1]

Yeah no idea why they got away from the Christiansen-Severson pairing. It was working, and getting way better actual results than Prov-Severson has.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I'm going to try and be a lower effort poster for a little bit. So this is a mishmash of whatever I'm seeing in the last ten pages.

- Voronkov's price is going to hit the roof. This guy has never seen money in his life, we should be making big long term offers now and not wait until it's not enough. $5m long term is fine.

- More generally, I don't like that we don't have any young players under contract beyond 2027. C'mon Don!

- Cole Sillinger is not our matchup center. He's done it three or four times to mixed effect (you can look at NST's opponents feature). I don't give a guy credit for getting smoked like he did vs Kucherov. He did have a very nice game vs Toronto's top guns, though that was as Monahan's winger, and Monahan-Marchenko had much better results with Voronkov and Chinakhov.

- More generally I'm very encouraged by how much Sillinger's skating has improved and he'll be a good role player eventually, but he still isn't very good. We're still getting heavily outscored with him out there. And no that is not because he is a matchup center (he isn't) and not normal for a good matchup center anyways.

- Fantilli is also not doing great, though he has enough talent to get goals regardless. We spend most of the time in our end with him on the ice. I think all the one and done rushes and the disconnected play between teammates is a big part of it. Fantilli needs to get his head on a swivel, right now he has no idea where his teammates are.

- Most of Fantilli's game log is nights where he gets 30% or 40% of the xGs. That's really bad. His best night came in the one night he was Monahan's winger, when Fantilli was on for 77% xGs. I've been saying - for now the kid is a winger and the club will be instantly better when it stops pretending that he's currently a viable center.

- I'm just now skimming through KJ's comments about last year. The part about the coaches in video sessions telling him to change his routes and go to the net is what stands out to me. He's a perimeter player and that's actually an important role!

- People harping on Vincent for not giving KJ this type of ice time are not being realistic. If Gaudreau and Laine were on this year's team and KJ was skating as badly as he was last year then Evason would not be giving him endless rope as our top playmaker.

- Fabbro is looking good and might just be a long term fit next to Werenski. But there's nothing obvious about that yet. The underlying possession numbers aren't any different for Werenski-Fabbro from Werenski-Provorov. By my eye both pairings look good.

I think you nailed it on Voronkov, contracts, Sillinger and Fantilli, who right now looks more like a winger than a center. I’m hoping that changes because of the huge need at center, but his game right now “looks winger”.

 

[majormajor]

I think you nailed it on Voronkov, contracts, Sillinger and Fantilli, who right now looks more like a winger than a center. I’m hoping that changes because of the huge need at center, but his game right now “looks winger”.

Yeah and it does give me a chuckle when people compare Fantilli to Jonathan Toews or some classical center like that. He doesn't even look like a center, much less one of the best defensive centers of his era.

Today though I feel obliged to say his line did carry possession. One of only a few times he has done that as a center.

I'll add that I'm very curious what the conversation among the coaches is about Fantilli at center. I'm sure they're aware of his weaknesses there, I wonder how critical they are being with him, are they being very positive in taking things step by step? And are they considering moving him to wing. They did it for one game and he had more offensive looks that game than in any other this year. Then they went back to having him at center. So I really don't know what they're thinking.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[alphafox]

With this points streak I'm really unsure about what direction to go as we appear to have a legitimate shot at competing every night and potentially a legit shot at a wild card birth. My gut says that despite appearing to have a few players making a jump (KJ, Marchy, Voronkov) and a few playing at their ceiling (Zach, Monahan) we probably aren't ready to make serious noise so I would rather use the pieces we have for something that is an additional cornerstone for the next 5 years rather than any sort of rental. While the Jiricek trade is disappointing as we lose what was supposed to be a 1st pairing guy the return does give us a boatload of extra picks and some additional D depth. In addition both Jenner and Proverov be worth a lot at TDL especially with $ retained which isn't a problem for us to do. The question is how do you make a major trade with a contender without sabotaging the growth this team is earning.

I could easily see a premier young piece coming back for Jenner+ a first as that takes nothing from the team, but then you still have to have to move Provy for a 1st if you can in a separate deal. I feel like the problem is going to be finding a dance partner and finessing the deals to ensure we at least look like we are leaning into the playoff push. If DW can pull it off it could be a big win and fully salvage the disaster that the Jiricek pick became while turning the page completely on the Jarmo years that stalled out and died after the playoffs series vs the lightning.

Edit: also forgot to mention the huge potential that cap space provides as well, we could easily take on a player like Trouba or a goalie just leveraging short term cap space to improve extreme weak spots in the roster.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Yeah and it does give me a chuckle when people compare Fantilli to Jonathan Toews or some classical center like that. He doesn't even look like a center, much less one of the best defensive centers of his era.

Today though I feel obliged to say his line did carry possession. One of only a few times he has done that as a center.

I'll add that I'm very curious what the conversation among the coaches is about Fantilli at center. I'm sure they're aware of his weaknesses there, I wonder how critical they are being with him, are they being very positive in taking things step by step? And are they considering moving him to wing. They did it for one game and he had more offensive looks that game than in any other this year. Then they went back to having him at center. So I really don't know what they're thinking.

Fantilli needs to learn not every play requires him to skate at top speed all thru the play. He needs to read the opponents and his own line-mates, adjusting his pace to meet the situation.

 

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

Maybe there is something, but I don’t think Flynn has any scouting background.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Maybe there is something, but I don’t think Flynn has any scouting background.

He doesn’t but he is an assistant GM and runs our cap.

 

[koteka]

Yeah no idea why they got away from the Christiansen-Severson pairing. It was working, and getting way better actual results than Prov-Severson has.

My expectation is we are seeing how well Fabbro does with Werenski before we talk extension. After a while we will go back to Werenski-Provorov to boost Provorov’s trade value and Christiansen-Severson because that might be a pairing used for the next couple of years. We might finish the season with

Werenski-Fabbro
Christiansen-Severson
Hunt-Mateychuk

and then send Hunt-Mateychuk to the Monsters playoff run and replace them with something like Harris-Gudbranson.

 

[CBJx614]

My expectation is we are seeing how well Fabbro does with Werenski before we talk extension. After a while we will go back to Werenski-Provorov to boost Provorov’s trade value and Christiansen-Severson because that might be a pairing used for the next couple of years. We might finish the season with

Werenski-Fabbro
Christiansen-Severson
Hunt-Mateychuk

and then send Hunt-Mateychuk to the Monsters playoff run and replace them with something like Harris-Gudbranson.

Highly doubt they call either of them up. They'll keep Johnson in until the wheels completely fall off and if Gudbranson comes back there's no need to call them up at all. Let them overseason in Cleveland and lead that team to a title.

Imo the only way either is called up is if we have a bad injury bug hit.

Also if we're competing for a playoff spot I don't think we trade Provy. No need to.

 

[ViD]

When everyone’s healthy:

Marchenko - Monahan - Voronkov
Chinakhov - Fantilli - KJ
Danforth - Jenner - Sillinger
Olivier - Kuraly - ZAR

Fabbro - Werenski
Severson - Provorov
Gudbranson - Harris / Christensen / Hunt

Elvis
Tarasov

 

[GoJackets1]

When everyone’s healthy:

Marchenko - Monahan - Voronkov
Chinakhov - Fantilli - KJ
Danforth - Jenner - Sillinger
Olivier - Kuraly - ZAR

Fabbro - Werenski
Severson - Provorov
Gudbranson - Harris / Christensen / Hunt

Elvis
Tarasov

These are the forward lines I’d go with for sure. I really wish we could get a playmaker upgrade to play wing on the third line here with Boone though. Then use Danforth as 4th line center.

Defense I’d reunite Christiansen and Severson, and put Provorov with Guddy if he’s still here. If not, I’m more than willing to give Mateychuk Provorov’s spot.

 

[majormajor]

I've always like Hoglander. Good Danforth sized player, versatile for his size, though I think strictly a winger. I don't know what is up with him right now. Is he dinged up or just having low confidence? This is clearly the worst stretch of his career, not even getting shots most nights.

Is the play a Provorov for Hoglander trade?

Highly doubt they call either of them up. They'll keep Johnson in until the wheels completely fall off and if Gudbranson comes back there's no need to call them up at all. Let them overseason in Cleveland and lead that team to a title.

Imo the only way either is called up is if we have a bad injury bug hit.

Also if we're competing for a playoff spot I don't think we trade Provy. No need to.

I think that might be the play they go with but from my vantage point Mateychuk is already overripened, and the wheels are completely off for JJ. We're already there for me.

I'd be trading Provorov regardless. The only way we keep him is if we're extending him long term and I wouldn't do that. Good player but I think our D is set without him.

 

[thebus88]

With this points streak I'm really unsure about what direction to go as we appear to have a legitimate shot at competing every night and potentially a legit shot at a wild card birth. My gut says that despite appearing to have a few players making a jump (KJ, Marchy, Voronkov) and a few playing at their ceiling (Zach, Monahan) we probably aren't ready to make serious noise so I would rather use the pieces we have for something that is an additional cornerstone for the next 5 years rather than any sort of rental. While the Jiricek trade is disappointing as we lose what was supposed to be a 1st pairing guy the return does give us a boatload of extra picks and some additional D depth. In addition both Jenner and Proverov be worth a lot at TDL especially with $ retained which isn't a problem for us to do. The question is how do you make a major trade with a contender without sabotaging the growth this team is earning.

I could easily see a premier young piece coming back for Jenner+ a first as that takes nothing from the team, but then you still have to have to move Provy for a 1st if you can in a separate deal. I feel like the problem is going to be finding a dance partner and finessing the deals to ensure we at least look like we are leaning into the playoff push. If DW can pull it off it could be a big win and fully salvage the disaster that the Jiricek pick became while turning the page completely on the Jarmo years that stalled out and died after the playoffs series vs the lightning.

Trading Provorov removes nothing from the team, simply because of Mateychuk. It’s ridiculous to say that moving Jenner doesn’t remove anything from the team. The current (healthy) team needs a player exactly like him in the lineup. We don’t need a “rental”, just players that can “help us now, and in the future”.

Fantilli needs to learn not every play requires him to skate at top speed all thru the play. He needs to read the opponents and his own line-mates, adjusting his pace to meet the situation.

Yes, the scientific terminology is, “slow it the f*** down”.

 

[CBJx614]

I've always like Hoglander. Good Danforth sized player, versatile for his size, though I think strictly a winger. I don't know what is up with him right now. Is he dinged up or just having low confidence? This is clearly the worst stretch of his career, not even getting shots most nights.

Is the play a Provorov for Hoglander trade?



I think that might be the play they go with but from my vantage point Mateychuk is already overripened, and the wheels are completely off for JJ. We're already there for me.

I'd be trading Provorov regardless. The only way we keep him is if we're extending him long term and I wouldn't do that. Good player but I think our D is set without him.

While I don't think it's gonna happen, you know what would be even better than Mateychuk leading the Monsters to a title?

Mateychuk and Z leading the Jackets into a deep playoff run.

But no seriously, either way I hope it's a conversation they have to have, to keep Provorov to help with a playoff push or play the long game and continue to gather assets.

 

[majormajor]

While I don't think it's gonna happen, you know what would be even better than Mateychuk leading the Monsters to a title?

Mateychuk and Z leading the Jackets into a deep playoff run.

But no seriously, either way I hope it's a conversation they have to have, to keep Provorov to help with a playoff push or play the long game and continue to gather assets.

I don't think there is going to be any conversation about using Provorov as an "own-rental", he's either extended or gone before the trade deadline.

I do hope there is a conversation about getting Mateychuk up here to upgrade a good team. A deep playoff run is a lot to ask for but I think Mateychuk would be good for the playoff chase and hopefully we get a playoff series or two which would be good for him and all of our young players to experience.

 

[stevo61]

Fantilli needs to learn not every play requires him to skate at top speed all thru the play. He needs to read the opponents and his own line-mates, adjusting his pace to meet the situation.

MacKinnon 2.0. I remember telling my buddy watching MacK he's such an odd case and almost noone should look to him as a way to play the game. Fantilli is that rare case that should. It's not gonna be an overnight development where it just clicks, but when it does...

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm with the majority here, regardless of playoff positioning we have to sell Provorov at the deadline. He's been good, and he'll make a fine addition to another playoff team. But there's a real chance he could fetch a first rounder. While there will be some decent fall off from Provorov and Christiansen/Harris/JJ (the person who would likely fill into his role on 2nd pair LD), its not worth sacrificing the pick(s) you will get for trading Provorov.

Or hell who knows, maybe Mateychuk/Hunt comes right up from the minors and we don't miss a beat with them.

Deadline bait (IMO) are as followed:

Provorov, JVR, ZAR, Labanc, Kuraly, JJ, Harris, Danforth (x), Fabbro (x), Olivier (x), Tarasov

I put x's next to guys I would like to keep but if they aren't signed to extensions by then you have to explore dealing them.

Obviously not all of these guys will go. I imagine not many teams will be beating the door down to grab JVR, JJ, or Tarasov. But this is who I'd look into moving at the deadline unless we're deep deep in the race (as in, in the playoffs or within 4 points of it)

 

[CannonFire1]

Provorov for Hoglander + Vancouver's 1st?

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

When I saw the traditional biweekly Brady Tkachuk thread on the trades board, I was considering offering Marchenko + CBJ's 1st, since I assume it'd take that kind of package. It got me thinking, do I really think it's in Columbus' best interest to acquire Tkachuk if the price is to part with Marchenko now? He's becoming a truly fantastic player and he has such a good attitude, which, if Ottawa would actually trade Tkachuk, I assume he doesn't. Yes, he's not the same level of player, but does he need to be?

Furthermore, I assume any trade would happen at the draft. If Lindstrom recovers and plays well during the spring, doesn't that kind of cover the type of hole that we would want to fill with a Tkachuk trade in the long run?

My point is: if Lindstrom looks good in the spring, would I still be interested in paying such a haul for Tkachuk? Wouldn't it be better of Waddell to focus on the defense side of things? Say a Noah Dobson or what have you.

Or am I simply home blind, grossly underestimating the difference in level of play between Marchenko and Tkachuk as well as putting too much hope on Lindstrom?