Confirmed with Link: CBJ hire Don Waddell as President of Hockey Operations and General Manager. JD to serve as Senior Advisor

[majormajor]

We're little over a month into the Waddell era, so I wonder does anybody here have a clue yet on what are CBJ's plans on roster construction in the long-term? Are they going to build a team similar to Carolina, a fast, cycle-heavy team that wants to get out of the zone quick and safely? Or is it going to be a some kind of variation from the original plan (rush-heavy puck-possession team and something?) when Jarmo and JD were the main architects, to which Waddell is going to make small tweaks? Or probably something entirely different?

And has FO even had talks about making a long-term plan? I'm asking these things because I genuinely think they're more important and interesting questions than trying to figure out who might be the next HC and what roster moves will be achieved during this particular offseason.

It might be too early for them to have a real long term plan yet. Waddell was just hired a matter of weeks ago. It's too much to expect the guy to move here, get to know everyone, and understand the value of all the players and where we are at, and land the FAs and make the trades and so on.

He's shown at several points that he's just beginning to learn about the team, like not knowing that we had the option to keep our 2nd round pick. Some of the moves don't make a lot of sense.

This was something I brought up last Fall when it looked like Jarmo had the Sword of Damocles hanging over his neck. Hanging on to Jarmo all year only to get a replacement after the season, when there's no time for the new guy to prepare for the big late June / July 1st moves, has some significant downsides.

But 5x5.5M for Monahan is such a head scratcher for me. Yes, good veterans are needed to set right standards for younger players and to help them develop several aspects of their games, but that price and term for a player as slow and worn out (possibly) as Monahan is just too much. I'll be surprised if that contract isn't going to a significant problem for us sooner or later.

It's the least surprising contract to my mind. Great short term fit, and in the last couple seasons, you're right that it probably won't be good. But you can put a forward like that deeper in the lineup and I bet Monahan will still be money in the bumper position. That or he'll be on LTIR. It's not that much money.

Second reason why I found the signing a bit baffling was the trade rumor regarding 4OA for Necas+ which allegedly didn't happen because Necas didn't want to sign an extension here (btw it sounded like a catastrophic deal for CBJ imo). Now, let's assume Waddell wants to add fast players. Necas is a fast player so he fits their plans well. Let's also imagine Necas "accepts" the trade and signs a big contract with CBJ. Then we move onto free agency. Monahan expresses he interested in signing with CBJ. Is Waddell still going to offer him 5x5.5 as what ended up happening in reality? If Waddell said yes to that, would you have been happy with that decision? And if Waddell said no, would it make you wonder why? After all, Necas and Monahan are fundamentally different type of forwards, they don't bring same elements to the Jackets top-6.

So far I haven't got the impression that Waddell has been very patient and strategic with his moves, and it's making me uncomfortable. I hope he or someone here could prove my concerns completely unnecessary.

Personally Necas doesn't fit my vision for what I want the Blue Jackets to do - which is get away from one and done rush players. But teams do have room for a lot of different player types. I don't think in general a club adding both Monahan and Necas would be an issue.

 

[majormajor]

It’s funny - not wrong, not bad, not misplaced, just funny - that we’re all “need to solve the center problem” and now we’re building lineups and we don’t have room for Boone, Fantilli, Voronkov, Sillinger and Kuraly to play center.

Funny indeed.

We appear to have a good number of players who can hold the center position in a middle-six capacity. We just happen to not have a real 1C yet, and we have a rather strange (IMO) insistence on putting our youngest and most immature players at center.

 

[ProfessorFink22]

This was something I brought up last Fall when it looked like Jarmo had the Sword of Damocles hanging over his neck. Hanging on to Jarmo all year only to get a replacement after the season, when there's no time for the new guy to prepare for the big late June / July 1st moves, has some significant downsides.

The slight irony being that we wouldn't have had access to D-Wad at all without wating until after the season. I feel like to positives outweigh the negative timing.

 

[rubenflamshep]

As long as Waddell keeps Siren and Timmins on the payroll, I’m not worried.

They're the braintrust behind the third-best drafting record in the last ten years so if he doesn't tinker with them he should be fine

 

[CannonFire1]

While that sounds nice as a fan of the Jackets, I have doubts about any metric that would rank the Stars 2nd worst in drafting. Their record in recent years is pretty amazing.

 

[rubenflamshep]

While that sounds nice as a fan of the Jackets, I have doubts about any metric that would rank the Stars 2nd worst in drafting. Their record in recent years is pretty amazing.

That's a fair point! This is more of a metric around "how well do you pick people that put in games in the NHL". Doing this by point-share or WAR is in the works and would translate to more of a "how well do you draft impact players?" metric.

If we drill into Dallas for fun, the thing that stands out to me is that outside of the obvious hits (Robertson, Hintz, etc.) they overall tend to miss on their picks (missing on Honka at 14th overall was particularly costly). Would be interesting to see how much ground they gain in a point-share or WAR-based model.

 

[majormajor]

That's a fair point! This is more of a metric around "how well do you pick people that put in games in the NHL".

Which is far from the most important question when it comes to drafting.

Drafting players who could be replaced by $1m UFAs provides no value to a team.

 

[rubenflamshep]

Which is far from the most important question when it comes to drafting.

Drafting players who could be replaced by $1m UFAs provides no value to a team.

So it sounds like you would value a point-share or WAR-based scoring metric?

 

[tunnelvision]

It might be too early for them to have a real long term plan yet. Waddell was just hired a matter of weeks ago. It's too much to expect the guy to move here, get to know everyone, and understand the value of all the players and where we are at, and land the FAs and make the trades and so on.

I agree, and this kind of supports my fear that Waddell might not have been very patient and strategic in his time here. If he doesn't know CBJ players well enough yet, why was he in such "hurry" to acquire Necas? Can he already tell Necas will be more valuable for the team than Marchenko, Chinakhov, Johnson etc. come playoff time so he decided this guy gets a pricey long-term deal because he will be one of our core wingers but this and that guy are definitely not?

This was something I brought up last Fall when it looked like Jarmo had the Sword of Damocles hanging over his neck. Hanging on to Jarmo all year only to get a replacement after the season, when there's no time for the new guy to prepare for the big late June / July 1st moves, has some significant downsides.

Ideally the team would have a new GM in place well ahead of offseason and it would be the person they think is the best fit but it's not always possible get both wishes fulfilled.

Personally Necas doesn't fit my vision for what I want the Blue Jackets to do - which is get away from one and done rush players. But teams do have room for a lot of different player types. I don't think in general a club adding both Monahan and Necas would be an issue.

Yes, in general it wouldn't be an issue for a team. But in CBJ's case, I don't think we're ready to make the determination that Necas' contract is something we will have plenty of room for 2-4 years from now.

 

[Xoggz22]

So it sounds like you would value a point-share or WAR-based scoring metric?

I believe there are several dynamics that have to go into a draft success rate (and if this was covered, my bad). This data would have to be over some specified period as a single year isn't a fair judge in my opinion. I also wouldn't account for where they played their games as several drafted players get moved and develop in other organizations better than their own (opportunity, teaching, system, etc.):

1) Hit Rate - how many picks actually make it to the NHL (not a do all/end all metric but shows some measure of talent identified)
2) "Round" success rate - the first round is typically expected to be a "no brainer" for NHL talent. How well did their first round picks perform (games, points, metrics). Each round has a probability of making the NHL, did they exceed or miss the target in each round over a set period of time.
3) Games Played - Anyone that plays more than a cup of coffee says something about the draft record (yes, development is key but the draft is the initial expectation that they would play - did they and how many games)

I didn't include points because that can shift success rates based on the type of player drafted (defense, defensive defenseman/forward), but that certainly could add to a strength when picking a forward in the 3rd round that becomes a PPG player for a decade... That may be considered by some to be lucky but you have people doing this select task for a reason.

I don't know how you could tie al this together and not even sure it's worth it but I think these three points are easy enough to pull data for. This biggest issue I see... While the GM has the last say so, the scouts are doing the heavy lifting and bringing reports to the GM. GM is only as good as his scouts when it comes to the draft table. GMs get out and scout but not as a full time gig.

Just my senseless rambling, but I try to look at those team from a team success rate and then look at where the players ended up to see if they are actually being developed and as we know in CBJ land, that's what we're really looking for right now. DEVELOPMENT. There is way too much talent in the pipeline for this team to not have a sustainable winner for an extended perior, but it won't happen if they don't get time and coaching and put in the right situation to develop. We've been through this time over time. To waste this prospect pool and young NHL team would simply be brutal for this city.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

I agree, and this kind of supports my fear that Waddell might not have been very patient and strategic in his time here. If he doesn't know CBJ players well enough yet, why was he in such "hurry" to acquire Necas? Can he already tell Necas will be more valuable for the team than Marchenko, Chinakhov, Johnson etc. come playoff time so he decided this guy gets a pricey long-term deal because he will be one of our core wingers but this and that guy are definitely not?

so we’re still knocking him for something he didn’t do lmao

 

[EspenK]

I would value games played a lot more if the players were on teams like Boston, TB, Carolina, etc. Good teams. Not like recent vintage CBJ.

 

[tunnelvision]

so we’re still knocking him for something he didn’t do lmao

Are you trying to say intentions don't matter at all?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

so we’re still knocking him for something he didn’t do lmao

Enh I get what you're saying but...

it depends on why he didn't do it.

 

[majormajor]

I agree, and this kind of supports my fear that Waddell might not have been very patient and strategic in his time here. If he doesn't know CBJ players well enough yet, why was he in such "hurry" to acquire Necas? Can he already tell Necas will be more valuable for the team than Marchenko, Chinakhov, Johnson etc. come playoff time so he decided this guy gets a pricey long-term deal because he will be one of our core wingers but this and that guy are definitely not?

I think there's a decent rationale for preferring Necas to those guys because he's a better player right now. But I wonder if Waddell had watched all of our games if he'd think that would be the player type we were short on.

so we’re still knocking him for something he didn’t do lmao

Of course.

If I catch you trying to fistfight Mike Tyson, and he gently refuses to punch you, then I'm still going to question your judgment.

 

[EspenK]

I think there's a decent rationale for preferring Necas to those guys because he's a better player right now. But I wonder if Waddell had watched all of our games if he'd think that would be the player type we were short on.

I'm betting he would. The guy has averaged .67 ppg for his career over 5 seasons, is a good skater, isn't a smurf and can possibly play C. I'm not sure we have any of those on the roster. Bird in the hand theory.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Still think a Necas Laine deal makes sense for both teams . Carolina has good center play , Laine probably reverts back to a 40g season scorer . For the life of me , I’ll never understand how Jarmo never surrounded Laine , or Gaudreau with competent centers .. Waddell did in what 3 weeks ..

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Still think a Necas Laine deal makes sense for both teams . Carolina has good center play , Laine probably reverts back to a 40g season scorer . For the life of me , I’ll never understand how Jarmo never surrounded Laine , or Gaudreau with competent centers .. Waddell did in what 3 weeks ..

It sounded like Monahan wanted to go to Columbus. It takes two to tango.

 

[NotCommitted]

@rubenflamshep Ranking them that way seems more like a team suck-o-meter, with poor teams at the top. Well actually it doesn't even really work for that, I'm not sure what ranking them by GP relative to draft position is good for? It does definitely need something more to be really useful for much. Something around WAR might be more useful, that sounds like an idea worth exploring.

I think nailing a top10 pick makes a far bigger impact than getting "more than expected" GP out of a 2nd or 3rd rounder. And judging by "games played" doesn't really tell us the difference between getting Rantanen 10th OA (570gp) and Lawson Crouse 11th OA (504gp)

 

[NotCommitted]

@KJ Dangler Jarmo was definitely aware of the need, but it's not easy getting those guys without ridiculous overpays and Monahan being available and willing to sign I think is more about luck than genius of Waddell. And Monahan hasn't done anything in CBJ sweater yet. 48, 28, 23, 17. That's Sean Monahan's point totals of the 4 seasons prior to 23-24 and the reason 5x5.5 got a 83gp 59pt center signed.

 

[KJ Dangler]

@KJ Dangler Jarmo was definitely aware of the need, but it's not easy getting those guys without ridiculous overpays and Monahan being available and willing to sign I think is more about luck than genius of Waddell. And Monahan hasn't done anything in CBJ sweater yet. 48, 28, 23, 17. That's Sean Monahan's point totals of the 4 seasons prior to 23-24 and the reason 5x5.5 got a 83gp 59pt center signed.

I hear you, and don’t buy it .. There were plenty of guys made available , centers , in the past 5 years .. May have required an overpay , but if you bring in a Laine , a Gaudreau , you can’t have the 31st worst group of centers in the league ..

Waddell came in and said you don’t win in today’s nhl without centers and a good blueline , you have Lindstrom drafted , sign Monahan . I’m not a of the mindset that Jarmo made it a priority to go out and get a good center ..

 

[ColumbusTrill]

Are you trying to say intentions don't matter at all?

We don’t know what the return would have been nor do we know how close the deal was to happening. Of course I would want him to explore every option to make the team better. Maybe he was trying to keep 4 and get necas.

 

[Monk]

so we’re still knocking him for something he didn’t do lmao

You got a lot of response posts when a simple "Yes" would have been sufficient

Too many unknowns to knock him on this, I'm with ya.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I’m not a of the mindset that Jarmo made it a priority to go out and get a good center ..

it is quite literally the only thing jarmo talked about through multiple drafts/free agency cycles, and the only thing people asked him about.

he absolutely made it a priority, but it takes two to tango. off the top of my head:

• they were reportedly in on compher last summer, but he chose detroit
• they were repeatedly connected to kevin hayes, who i believe invoked his NTC once they hired babcock
• friedman said they pushed hard for lindholm early last season, but that it didn't come to fruition (could've been an extension thing or a "we're in last place" thing, or both)
• they were reportedly all over horvat, who was also extension-eligible, and didn't get it done

that's just guys in the last 1.5-ish years and just off the top of my head. the common thread there (and with necas) is that the players all had a say in it – whether by NTC or by needing an extension.

48, 28, 23, 17. That's Sean Monahan's point totals of the 4 seasons prior to 23-24 and the reason 5x5.5 got a 83gp 59pt center signed.

it's worth putting a big caveat on the 17 there as that came in 25gp and was the first time he'd been skating on healthy hips in years. think his year was ended by a different injury?

either way, pre hip injury monahan was pretty awesome (0.77 p/gp, including his outlier season in 18-19). since coming back from hip surgery in 22-23, he's at 0.70p/gp. so… pretty similar production, with less TOI/GP to boot.

 

[tunnelvision]

You got a lot of response posts when a simple "Yes" would have been sufficient

Too many unknowns to knock him on this, I'm with ya.

We are probably using different definitions for the word "knock", I thought of it as a synonym to "criticize" in this context.

So far I haven't got the impression that Waddell has been very patient and strategic with his moves

and this kind of supports my fear that Waddell might not have been very patient and strategic in his time here.

I tried to be careful with my words there since I never meant to harshly criticize him, but to express my concerns/fears that could be proven false or unnecessary later at some point when we know better. In my mind criticizing would be stating it bluntly "I don't think Waddell has been patient and strategic..." or something like that.

That is why "we're still knocking him for something he didn't do lmao" felt kind of an unfair response to my original post (it almost seems like a strawman or moving goalposts) and it didn't deserve a simple yes or no answer from me.