Friedman: Carolina likely to offer an 8 year, $100+ M contract to Rantanen before the deadline

[TheBigLetowski]

Not Biz, he staked out the take that the trade would cost Rantanen money

Hard to take that guy seriously, but i did see that.

 

[Chrispy]

Just for discussion sake, take a look at Slavin’s extension kicking on next year, almost all bonus:

https://puckpedia.com/player/jaccob-slavin

The wrinkle…I believe the last year’s SB is deferred. Not sure how deferred $$$ would fly with Rantanen, but the Canes have changed the way in which their contracts are structured.

Jarvis has a $4M signing bonus in 2024, $4M in 2026, and $5.57M in 2032 as part of his deal. Also 3 sets of deferred signing bonuses in addition to that.

 

[torniojaws]

What playstyle does he fit then?

Colorado

 

[Fatass]

I keep being amazed at how many people don’t know (or understand how big of a difference it is) that after July 1st you can only sign 7-year deals. It’s a lot of money for these superstar players who would get +10m and max term.

Of course. But what’s stopping the player from still signing with Carolina on July 1? He can look at offers from other clubs and force the Canes to pay even more. This player, because of his superstar status and the position the Canes put themselves into trading for a guy of this level as a coming UFA, has all the leverage.
There is no reason for him to not wait until July 1. Canes might offer 12.5 x 8 now but be forced into paying 13.5 x 8 if they want to keep the player. And pay most if the contract up front in bonuses too.

 

[spockBokk]

Of course. But what’s stopping the player from still signing with Carolina on July 1? He can look at offers from other clubs and force the Canes to pay even more. This player, because of his superstar status and the position the Canes put themselves into trading for a guy of this level as a coming UFA, has all the leverage.
There is no reason for him to not wait until July 1. Canes might offer 12.5 x 8 now but be forced into paying 13.5 x 8 if they want to keep the player. And pay most if the contract up front in bonuses too.

8yrs is off the table at 12:01am on 7/1 regardless of if he signs with CAR or any other team, not that hard to grasp

 

[Fatass]

8yrs is off the table at 12:01am on 7/1 regardless of if he signs with CAR or any other team, not that hard to grasp

Then the Canes AAV will bump up, as will the way the contract is paid out. Some clubs might offer 15 x 7 and mostly in bonus dollars.plus he gets to pick his destination.
IMO the player waits. The cap is going up by some big numbers.

 

[spockBokk]

Then the Canes AAV will bump up, as will the way the contract is paid out. Some clubs might offer 15 x 7 and mostly in bonus dollars.plus he gets to pick his destination.
IMO the player waits. The cap is going up by some big numbers.

Who’s going to offer $15M? That’s a bit outlandish

 

[SmokeyDuck]

If the Canes cant sign him, he would be perfect on a line with Carlsson...especially if he can take faceoffs. Would they trade him or use him for the playoffs and let him walk?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Notebook: Could Mikko Rantanen Actually Get Traded Again?

Seventeen days ago the hockey world, and fans around this team in particular, were stunned when Mikko Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes — suddenly ending his storied 10-year stint with the Colorado Avalanche. Seventeen days ago it was the biggest news in the NHL. Seventeen days...

coloradohockeynow.com

After speaking to several people, the general feeling is that Rantanen is still struggling with the shock value of this whole thing. He didn’t want to leave Colorado. It wasn’t supposed to happen.

The contract negotiations were what they were. But this isn’t the first time a superstar player in the prime of his career has tried to play hardball. More often than not, the team ends up making up the difference and the player gets signed. We saw it with Gabriel Landeskog just four years ago, albeit he wasn’t the same caliber player that Rantanen is now.

But still. The idea that Rantanen was stunned by the trade is very much real. Did he put too much trust in his agent? Did he truly understand that Chris MacFarland and the Avs were serious about moving him before March 7? I’m not entirely sure. But I do think there is some truth to that.

I believe that Rantanen thought he had time to figure things out before the deadline. But I also think MacFarland wasn’t going to take that risk. If the Avs woke up on March 8 with Rantanen still on the roster and a deal not signed, the player would’ve had all the bargaining power.

I’m genuinely not sure if Rantanen is ever going to figure it out this season. He felt like he was on top of the world a month ago. He was second in the league in points behind his linemate Nathan MacKinnon and well on his way to a league-altering extension.

Now? He’s playing three minutes less per game on a team and in a system that isn’t quite working for him yet. He’s no longer playing with MacKinnon or Cale Makar and he’s trying to overcome the emotions of this entire ordeal while still producing so he doesn’t cost himself money on his next contract.

There’s a lot of pressure.

 

[FissionFire]

If I’m Rantanen I easily decline. He will make probably 15M+ minimum on the open market with the huge cap bump and basically every single team able to afford him.

 

[eco's bones]

He'd have to be offered 14.25 (give or take) to hit 100 million on a 7 year deal. So unless someone goes up to 15 (which could happen) Carolina likely has the highest total money on the table already. And if the rumor is 100 million plus then they'd be ready to go up to the equivalent of 15 million it seems.

They have Niskinen coming over for next year to shore up the D, still need a RD probably unless they really trust Morrow. Even signing Rantanen they still have something like 15-18 million in cap space to play with.

Niskinen does look like a great prospect.

By the way if I'm Rantanen I'm not signing the first piece of paper someone throws in front of me. If the Canes are offering $12.5 out of the gate that might just be the starting point. Don't be surprised if/when you do sign him you're in that $13.5/14 mil territory. There could be other things. Some players just don't like certain places or they have a favorite dream team. Maybe they just don't like the way they fit....the coach or his system. But if I'm the Canes GM none of that really matters now. If I'm the Canes GM I got to get this done. Got too much invested in getting this player to fail at signing him especially after last year with Guentzel.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

Who’s going to offer $15M? That’s a bit outlandish

I would on the Habs honestly. 15x7 since the Habs don't really have cap problems.

 

[NikF]

I'd say 8 times out of 10 spending huge money on 28 year old wingers isn't the best idea. If you're paying massive money for an elite winger, the moment he isn't super elite anymore he is massively overpaid, wingers are dime a dozen. If a center or a D drops a level of play, at least they're still contributing to the more valuable position and match-ups. Wingers are like seasoning on a dish, important to get the right flavor around the main components.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

No clue if he re-signs in Carolina but I’d put substantially lower odds that he goes back to Colorado.

All this talk of ‘he’s stunned by the trade. He doesn’t want to be in Carolina…’ You think he wants to go back to a team that is trying to compete and trades him mid season because they are negotiating on a deal? That’s very much giving we don’t want you energy from Colorado and big time superstars aren’t likely to reciprocate that with a please take me back mentality. They’re gonna move on and lose that GMs number.

For him to go back to Colorado they would have to pay him even more than what they were offering because they don’t have the 8th year anymore. So if they weren’t going to go over a certain number before why would they do it now and make their internal cap situation worse? Why would Rantanen go back for less? The trade moves both parties considerably further apart than they were before

 

[milehigh11]

Whatever team dishes out 14+ million for Rantanen will have buyers remorse shortly after

He is not a play driver and if you are paying someone 14+ million he better be able to drive his own line. That's not Mikko.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Why Do I feel like Rantanen will sign somewhere for 7 years and 2-3 years later he ends up in LITR

 

[luiginb]

Whatever team dishes out 14+ million for Rantanen will have buyers remorse shortly after

He is not a play driver and if you are paying someone 14+ million he better be able to drive his own line. That's not Mikko.

I don't expect him to be an over .7 PPG player in Carolina during the next 8 years (will be 29 in October), 14 mil should buy you better.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

...while I don't think he's gonna be worth his MASSIVE contract, he's 28, not 38...

yeah most guys peak offensively at like 26

there’s some exceptions but it’s pretty consistent amongst high end players

 

[twostroke2023]

Welcome to Edmonton

Terrible weather for 5-6 months a year and a generally bad city. He’d be an idiot to go there imo.

 

[HawksDub89]

Terrible weather for 5-6 months a year and a generally bad city. He’d be an idiot to go there imo.

I’d be surprised if he signed with any of the Canadian teams.

 

[twostroke2023]

I’d be surprised if he signed with any of the Canadian teams.

Oh for the rest of Canada you can also add insanely high taxes to the mix. They aren’t low in Alberta but at least they don’t have provincial sales tax in AB

 

[torniojaws]

Would be interesting to see in the 4 Nations tournament, if he gels well with Barkov rather than Aho. Could be an interesting option to sign in Florida, as they are a contender for sure.