Value of: Carolina Defensemen

[caniac247]

Weird, every time I hear about Canes D-men, I ask myself the same question.

And your answer is Ward and Lack. Maybe watch a Canes game sometime.

The defense was not to blame. They actually did quite well keeping shots down. The goalies just couldn't save the shots that got through.

 

[Xspyrit]

And your answer is Ward and Lack. Maybe watch a Canes game sometime.

The defense was not to blame. They actually did quite well keeping shots down. The goalies just couldn't save the shots that got through.

I am a goalie and I can certify you that I could care less about the quantity of shots faced but I do care about the quality of chances against, even if it results in a SA or not. In fact, I become a wall when I receive more shots rather than 1 breakaway and a 2 on 1. Too bad WOI is down as we could have some data on HDSCA and MDSCA

Of course I don't watch 82 Canes games a year but I do watch some there and there on top of Sens and Habs games, and even though I think the Canes defense is the strength in that line-up, I also find it quite overrated by some.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

But if the Canes really have so many elite/top pairing guys, I question why they had a -28 goal differential and missed the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. A mystery, that.

If Edmonton has so many elite forwards, I have to question why they were 26th in the NHL in scoring, missed the playoffs for the 10th straight season and have drafted in the top 5 again (six of the last seven years)?

Weird, every time I hear about Canes D-men, I ask myself the same question.

The answer, which I think you know, is simply because a teams record and goal differential isn't solely based on how the defensemen perform. To answer your question more specifically though:

1) The Canes played 3 rookies for the majority of the season. How many teams have done that and made the playoffs? There were learning curves early on especially and the team was brutal in Oct/Nov. Nobody is saying these guys were awesome from day 1, nor are we saying they didn't have their ups and downs.

2) Canes fans aren't saying all these guys are #1 D studs right now (nor that all of them will be), we are saying they have looked very good at a young age, they progressed well as the season went on and we like their potential, which is what value is partially based on and why we aren't inclined to trade them unless the deal makes sense. (referring mainly to Slavin, Hanifin, Pesce).

3) Part of "goal differential" is scoring goals and the Canes forwards are pretty, well...bad. Being 28th in the league for GF is a big reason they were a -28 and a big reason they didn't make the playoffs.

4) Our goalies sucked, particularly in Oct/Nov....but pretty decent from early december on (when coincidentally, the Canes record was much better).

So let's look at it based on the above questions you guys posted:

Goal differential: 24th in the league; NHL Finish: 18th in the league

Now what contributed to that?
Goal For: 27th in the league
PP: 24th in the league
Goals Against: 18th in the league
PK: 6th (best) in the league
Shots Against: 5th (best) in the league
Goalie SV%: 29th in the League

So doesn't this tell you the big problems in Carolina was goal scoring, PP and goal tending and really not defense? Yes, I get that shot quality also matters and don't get me wrong, with 3 rookies, losing Faulk for 25% of the season, etc... they had their share of struggles, but it's overly simplistic to just look at goal diff and team record to make a statement of the defensemen.

 

[TT1]

I was impressed by Slavin last season, it's very likely that he'll end up being a solid top 4 dman. Pesce is meh, he'll probably be a bottom pairing Dman.

asking price for Slavin?

 

[HockeyHead21]

If Edmonton have so many elite forwards, I have to question why they were 26th in the NHL in scoring, missed the playoffs for the 10th straight seasons and have drafted in the top 5 again (six of the last seven years)? [/B]

burn

 

[Avs44]

I was impressed by Slavin last season, it's very likely that he'll end up being a solid top 4 dman. Pesce is meh, he'll probably be a bottom pairing Dman.

asking price for Slavin?

He's already comfortably a top four defensman...he has the potential, at the least, to be a high end #2 defensman. The price on him should be a top young forward.

 

[Homesick]

If Edmonton have so many elite forwards, I have to question why they were 26th in the NHL in scoring, missed the playoffs for the 10th straight seasons and have drafted in the top 5 again (six of the last seven years)? [/B]

burn

They had 1 "elite" forward in McDavid(who missed half the season), a star with Taylor Hall, a good 2C in RNH, 1RW Eberle, and Draisaitl who apparently is unproven and can't be considered a 2C.

It's a joke though that a Canes fan thinks Pesce will get a return of Eberle

 

[Avs44]

They had 1 "elite" forward in McDavid(who missed half the season), a star with Taylor Hall, a good 2C in RNH, 1RW Eberle, and Draisaitl who apparently is unproven and can't be considered a 2C.

It's a joke though that a Canes fan thinks Pesce will get a return of Eberle

Pesce never would right now, but simultaneously, I don't think Yakupov really gets it done either. Carolina clearly needs high end young forwards, but Pesce isn't worth any of the high end forwards on the Oilers, and I doubt the Canes have interest in Yakupov or someone of that sort...so it seems the obvious answer is there's no fit here and to move the discussion on.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

They had 1 "elite" forward in McDavid(who missed half the season), a star with Taylor Hall, a good 2C in RNH, 1RW Eberle, and Draisaitl who apparently is unproven and can't be considered a 2C.

Wait, you mean we are allowed to apply context to these blanket statements?

Yep....context is precisely the point I was subtly making when I posted that about the Oilers forwards. Canes have a terrible set of forwards (probably the worst in the NHL), have terrible goaltending (2nd worst last year in the NHL), lost 1 starting D (Wiz) for the season on his first shift, lost Faulk for 1/4 of the season and started 3 true rookies on defense for most of the season. So don't you think it's pretty silly for the guy to say "if they have such good defensemen, why did they have a goal differential of X and not make the playoffs"?

 

[GoldiFox]

They had 1 "elite" forward in McDavid(who missed half the season), a star with Taylor Hall, a good 2C in RNH, 1RW Eberle, and Draisaitl who apparently is unproven and can't be considered a 2C.

It's a joke though that a Canes fan thinks Pesce will get a return of Eberle

I know you are just [mod] trying to make an argument look more extreme in your favor by putting words in other's mouths... But the "price a team would have to pay" to acquire an asset that is currently extremely valuable to that team is far from what one "thinks a player would return".

In this case, the Oilers would have to offer Eberle if they wanted a chance at Pesce. There is no universe in which Yakupov gets close. That doesn't necessarily mean that Pesce is worth Eberle, that is simply the only piece that would be of interest to the Canes. Take it as a "not interested" if it makes you feel better.

 

[NotOpie]

After being so highly touted in his draft -1 year and seeing his stock sink significantly during his draft year, it's not surprising that people don't think highly of him as a prospect. Just look to Brandon Saad as a positive example of possibly being better than people think. Of course, the counter to that is John McFarland, Nick Ebert, and a thousand other highly touted juniors whose stock sank like a stone.

Both Roland McKeown and Haydn Fleury were told by their coaches to focus nearly exclusively on the defensive side of the game the year after they were drafted. Both put on muscle and both improved that side of their game significantly. They both came back this season to have outstanding years.

Once drafted, the only market where your stock counts initially is with the team that drafted you. The Hurricanes have expressed nothing but support, happiness, and praise for both Fleury and McKeown. There is no disappointment anywhere with these guys except from those who bandy their names about in trade proposals on HF Boards.

 

[ManofSteel55]

A non-elite but very good young veteran top-6 W...yeah, that's totally not worth a young, physical, established two-way top-4 RHD.

Non elite among NHL'ers, but among the top 10 point producing right wingers. Top line RW, not top 6.

 

[Homesick]

Spoken like someone who has never seen Pesce play.

Pesce would cost Eberle at a minimum and I doubt the Canes even move him for that given their lack of RHD depth.

I know you are just trolling here, trying to make an argument look more extreme in your favor by putting words in other's mouths... But the "price a team would have to pay" to acquire an asset that is currently extremely valuable to that team is far from what one "thinks a player would return".

In this case, the Oilers would have to offer Eberle if they wanted a chance at Pesce. There is no universe in which Yakupov gets close. That doesn't necessarily mean that Pesce is worth Eberle, that is simply the only piece that would be of interest to the Canes. Take it as a "not interested" if it makes you feel better.

I still fail to see how Pesce is so valuable. You have yet to provide any evidence that he is anything more than a bottom pairing defenseman(and all the stats point in that direction)
I never made an offer for him it was in fact you that just randomly said "Eberle at a minimum" That is a case of extremely overrating your players

 

[ManofSteel55]

Pesce never would right now, but simultaneously, I don't think Yakupov really gets it done either. Carolina clearly needs high end young forwards, but Pesce isn't worth any of the high end forwards on the Oilers, and I doubt the Canes have interest in Yakupov or someone of that sort...so it seems the obvious answer is there's no fit here and to move the discussion on.

We don't really have a spot for Pesce anyway, not sure why other Oil fans are asking about him. We could use Slavin, and I don't think the Eberle ask is unreasonable for him in terms of value.

 

[Xspyrit]

If Edmonton has so many elite forwards, I have to question why they were 26th in the NHL in scoring, missed the playoffs for the 10th straight season and have drafted in the top 5 again (six of the last seven years)?

Good counter lol

The answer, which I think you know, is simply because a teams record and goal differential isn't solely based on how the defensemen perform. To answer your question more specifically though:

1) The Canes played 3 rookies for the majority of the season. How many teams have done that and made the playoffs? There were learning curves early on especially and the team was brutal in Oct/Nov. Nobody is saying these guys were awesome from day 1, nor are we saying they didn't have their ups and downs.

2) Canes fans aren't saying all these guys are #1 D studs right now (nor that all of them will be), we are saying they have looked very good at a young age, they progressed well as the season went on and we like their potential, which is what value is partially based on and why we aren't inclined to trade them unless the deal makes sense. (referring mainly to Slavin, Hanifin, Pesce).

3) Part of "goal differential" is scoring goals and the Canes forwards are pretty, well...bad. Being 28th in the league for GF is a big reason they were a -28 and a big reason they didn't make the playoffs.

4) Our goalies sucked, particularly in Oct/Nov....but pretty decent from early december on (when coincidentally, the Canes record was much better).

So let's look at it based on the above questions you guys posted:

Goal differential: 24th in the league; NHL Finish: 18th in the league

Now what contributed to that?
Goal For: 27th in the league
PP: 24th in the league
Goals Against: 18th in the league
PK: 6th (best) in the league
Shots Against: 5th (best) in the league
Goalie SV%: 29th in the League

So doesn't this tell you the big problems in Carolina was goal scoring, PP and goal tending and really not defense? Yes, I get that shot quality also matters and don't get me wrong, with 3 rookies, losing Faulk for 25% of the season, etc... they had their share of struggles, but it's overly simplistic to just look at goal diff and team record to make a statement of the defensemen.

Thank you for a more detailed answer. Yes I am aware of what you are saying, Sens had also many other problems as to why they were bad defensively last year.

1) Cameron. Not sure if he didn't have the room or if his system was just poorly inefficient or if it was a combination of both, but the team went from a 99 pts season and a 2.54 GA/G to a 85 pts season and a 2.94 GA/G

2) Cowen and Wiercioch : those guys at one point looked very promising too, but finally weren't up to the task and weren't reliable enough to fill a second pairing job

3) Ceci : is very young and needed a veteran and not young guys struggling. Ceci has looked a lot better being paired with Phaneuf. Definitely showing top pairing potential with how he ended the season and his performance on Team Canada

4) did I say Phaneuf? Yeah, Sens were definitely missing a great veteran to solidify the defense

5) Turris and MacArthur : both injured pratically all year (Turris played 26 games healthy and MacArthur none)

Anyway, concerning the Canes, my opinion is that the weakness of the team comes from the forward group. It seems that I might be correct according to what you said. Also, I think pretty much everyone think that. But my initial comment was that, while these young D-men are fine, they are not world beaters yet like certain comments seem to imply. Like the guy saying that Pesce should return Eberle at a minimum... lol comon

 

[GoldiFox]

I still fail to see how Pesce is so valuable. You have yet to provide any evidence that he is anything more than a bottom pairing defenseman(and all the stats point in that direction)
I never made an offer for him it was in fact you that just randomly said "Eberle at a minimum" That is a case of extremely overrating your players

You have to actually watch them and put some context to the situation. Looking at NHL.com stats relating to a Rookie defenseman playing his first year of Pro hockey and making a conclusion that he is a career bottom pairing D is just silly. Especially considering he played top-4 minutes at ES and on both the PP/PK. If you want to see why Pesce has a decent shot of developing into a big, two-way, mobile top-4 RHD then I suggest you actually watch a few games of his.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Anyway, concerning the Canes, my opinion is that the weakness of the team comes from the forward group. It seems that I might be correct according to what you said. Also, I think pretty much everyone think that. But my initial comment was that, while these young D-men are fine, they are not world beaters yet like certain comments seem to imply.

That's fair. I think the vast majority of Canes fans recognize that these guys, while they've looked good so far (except Murphy), are all still not fully proven and not "world beaters" today (including Hanifin). They are what they are, young, talented defensemen who had solid first seasons and who seem to have a bright future, some brighter than others.

You'll have to forgive us a bit if we get a bit over-excited about our D prospects though. Since Rutherford was allergic to drafting/developing defensemen, before Faulk, the best (and really only) "home grown" NHL defenseman the Canes have ever had (that stuck) is Nik Wallin. So to see Hanifin, Pesce, and Slavin have solid rookie seasons along side Faulk, and to see Fleury, McKeown, Bean and even Carrick in the pipeline, it's like an alternate universe for us.

 

[MinJaBen]

We don't really have a spot for Pesce anyway, not sure why other Oil fans are asking about him. We could use Slavin, and I don't think the Eberle ask is unreasonable for him in terms of value.

I don't understand this at all...you (Oilers fans) are usually going on and on about the need for RHD and the lack of need for LHD when you make your proposals or shoot down others. Then you say you have no room for Pesce (RHD) but could use Slavin (LHD)...did the trade for Larsen fill you up on the right side all of a sudden?

 

[McTrashBoat]

I don't understand this at all...you (Oilers fans) are usually going on and on about the need for RHD and the lack of need for LHD when you make your proposals or shoot down others. Then you say you have no room for Pesce (RHD) but could use Slavin (LHD)...did the trade for Larsen fill you up on the right side all of a sudden?

Well it pushed Sekera down to the 2nd pairing, which could put Fayne on the 3rd pairing, so kind of.

I honestly don't know Pesce that well, is he playing 5th there? We don't really need more 5ish guys.

 

[cptjeff]

Pesce never would right now, but simultaneously, I don't think Yakupov really gets it done either. Carolina clearly needs high end young forwards, but Pesce isn't worth any of the high end forwards on the Oilers, and I doubt the Canes have interest in Yakupov or someone of that sort...so it seems the obvious answer is there's no fit here and to move the discussion on.

Out of the Canes D, Yakupov would get you Murphy, if Murphy didn't need to be replaced with an expansion draft eligible d-man instead. Not Pesce. Not Slavin.

Not sure why Oilers fans think Yakupov is worth anything at all, really. He's a borderline NHLer with a terrible contract.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Well it pushed Sekera down to the 2nd pairing, which could put Fayne on the 3rd pairing, so kind of.

I honestly don't know Pesce that well, is he playing 5th there? We don't really need more 4/5 guys.

Another thing is that although he's better on his LHD side, Slavin acquitted himself pretty well playing on the RHD side for a while so he could fill a need there also. It's kind of pointless because the Canes, from what I can tell, are very high on him so I don't see him being available.

In terms of Pesce, he played #4 this past year and expect him to do the same this coming year, although it's not set in stone. "Most" Canes fans see a D this year of:

Slavin-Faulk
Hanifin-Pesce
Hainsey-Murphy or Tennyson.

Who knows after training camp if Fleury or McKeown will make a push, but I think they'll start in the AHL but camp will help decide that. Carrick is another one that could push for a 6/7 spot.

 

[Brock Anton]

They had 1 "elite" forward in McDavid(who missed half the season), a star with Taylor Hall, a good 2C in RNH, 1RW Eberle, and Draisaitl who apparently is unproven and can't be considered a 2C.

It's a joke though that a Canes fan thinks Pesce will get a return of Eberle

Interesting. I don't recall many Oilers fans claiming that RNH was only a 'good' #2C or that Taylor Hall was just a 'star' in the billion Faulk to EDM threads this summer. I seem to remember RNH being championed as a #1C and Hall being a elite sniper. What changed?

 

[ManofSteel55]

I don't understand this at all...you (Oilers fans) are usually going on and on about the need for RHD and the lack of need for LHD when you make your proposals or shoot down others. Then you say you have no room for Pesce (RHD) but could use Slavin (LHD)...did the trade for Larsen fill you up on the right side all of a sudden?

We could use a RHD, but the real need is for potential top pair guys. We have a pile of them, but none who are actually there yet aside from Larsson (and maybe Klefbom if he can stay healthy). I see that in Slavin, not in Pesce.

We need organizational depth on the right side, but cheap guys (in terms of both salary and cost to aquire), and that isn't really Pesce either. You guys wouldn't give him away for the cost we would want to pay (the cost of a 5/6 d-man). And rightfully so I guess.

The need for quality still is more important than the need for a d-man who shoots with any specific hand.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Interesting. I don't recall many Oilers fans claiming that RNH was only a 'good' #2C or that Taylor Hall was just a 'star' in the billion Faulk to EDM threads this summer. I seem to remember RNH being championed as a #1C and Hall being a elite sniper. What changed?

Hall isn't nor was ever championed as an elite sniper. He doesn't have the shot for that. Near elite left winger? Sure. Elite? Nope. He had consistency issues last year as well which hurt our team. He was great for part of the year, next to invisible for another part.

Nuge can be a #1C I believe. His injuries really screwed up his season last year though.

 

[Readytostart]

Both Roland McKeown and Haydn Fleury were told by their coaches to focus nearly exclusively on the defensive side of the game the year after they were drafted. Both put on muscle and both improved that side of their game significantly. They both came back this season to have outstanding years.

Once drafted, the only market where your stock counts initially is with the team that drafted you. The Hurricanes have expressed nothing but support, happiness, and praise for both Fleury and McKeown. There is no disappointment anywhere with these guys except from those who bandy their names about in trade proposals on HF Boards.

Yeah, I didn't make my point as well as I'd have liked to. I used Brendan Saad as an example of someone whose stock fell during his draft year, but turned out to be an above-average NHLer. What matters most is what you do when you're drafted, and what the organization that drafts you wants you to do to prepare to be a pro.