Carolina - 50 picks since 2019
- Thread starter Big Daddy Cane
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The Hurricanes won the cup in 2006 but that was the 2005-2006 season.
So they finished 4th in 2019 and 1st in 2020.
Regarding paragraph 1, the Canes traded down 4 times in the 2021 draft and once in 2023 and 2020. They tend to take entirely boom and bust players. They see little need in drafting Clark Bishops anymore, and they tend to go for really small players or players in smaller leagues or players who might have had an injury. They tend to get players who have top 6 forward or top 4 D or starting goalie potential, but with much lower "floors".
The calculus is that bottom 6 forwards and 3rd pairing defenders and backup goalies are easily and cheaply acquired in free agency or trade.
Will the strategy work? It's completely open. The most recently drafted players to stick are Svechnikov (2nd overall) and Jarvis (13th overall). Kochetkov (2nd round) is close. Next year, it's likely that a rookie forward will see time but probably won't be a regular. On D, there aren't any spots available.
In teams of Hurricanes yore (like pretty much the entirety of 2000-2019), these players would not only have made the team already, but they'd be in starting roles. Guys like Jamieson Rees and Antonni Honka would have already made the team. But that's largely a function of "our team sucks and our budget is low and we don't attract free agents" than having an amazing farm system.
Nowadays, Rod wants the players to actually make the team by having a good camp. He's pretty meritocratic. A guy like Jalen Chatfield came in this year and stole a spot from Ethan Bear and Dylan Coghlan because he was flat out better. He played 78 games this year, and all the playoffs. Warren Foegele was that way when he was a rookie too.
Gaylord Q Tinkledink
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- Apr 29, 2018
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Canes drafting recently is what you do when you're competing and want to stay competing.
They're swinging for the fences with a lot of picks. They hit depending on how much they hit they can deal that prospect as a piece, or main piece for players that are better and in the NHL, or use that prospect to replace a roster player at a cheaper deal and potentially trade said roster player away for futures to replenish the prospect pool.
They're swinging for the fences with a lot of picks. They hit depending on how much they hit they can deal that prospect as a piece, or main piece for players that are better and in the NHL, or use that prospect to replace a roster player at a cheaper deal and potentially trade said roster player away for futures to replenish the prospect pool.
This has got to be one of the most embarrassing runs of posts you'll ever see on this site right?
I mean holy shit hahahahahaha.
Prior to 2019, which is probably too early to call, they were consistently getting 2-3 NHL players per draft including some real talent.
I also think people don’t realize there is an element of luck. You can do all the right things and it still not turn out your way.
AhosDatsyukian
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- Sep 25, 2020
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ehh it's kinda early to even evaluate the results.
2018: Svech at 2 obviously was a no-brainer but a stud. Jack Drury in the 2nd round looks like a really solid pick, he's a good asset and has shown well in his limited NHL opportunity so far. No 3rd rounders, a couple 4th rounders not likely NHLers but hit on Sellgren in the 6th round who projects as a future NHL 3rd pair D.
2019: Suzuki in the 1st round is really tough to evaluate due to his strange eye injury that derailed his development. Kochetkov in the 2nd was a great pick already. Rees in the 2nd looks like a future contributor in the bottom 6, Honka looks decent and Rizzo showing well for a 7th rounder.
2020: Jarvis was a great pick, Gunler and Ponomaryev in the 2nd have nice potential and Nikishin in the 3rd was a massive steal. Ronan Sealey in the 7th looking great too for where he was taken.
2021: No 1st rounder, Morrow looking really good for a 2nd rounder despite a bit of a disappointing year. Heimosalmi, Koivunen have some potential still. Guslistov very solid for a 7th rounder and a potential future bottom 6 NHL C.
2022: Hard to evaluate, no 1st and took a lot of boom/bust Russians in this draft.
2023: Obviously just happened so no results
Overall they've hit on several already top 6 F or top 4 D with a handful of others with potential to get there, a stud young G in Kochetkov and others who look like they can be solid depth. No huge glaring misses/busts in there. Suzuki probably the worst, but again no team can predict their 1st round pick getting an eye injury less than a year after the draft that resulted in a permanent blind spot in the middle of his eye...
List of Carolina Hurricanes draft picks - Wikipedia
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mriswith
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- Oct 12, 2011
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I like their approach and strategy in general but they're making the same mistake Gillis did when he ran the most successful ever version of the Canucks. Refusal to pay up and commit significant futures to win now pieces when the team was at its peak, too addicted to dumpster diving and a mirage of being a contender forever via dumpster diving and mediocre draft picks.
They only have 1-2 years remaining on all of their amazing contracts, this is peak Carolina right now. They should have been heavy buyers the last two years and should be heavy buyers this year and next, but they won't. They'll keep dumpster diving and clinging to mediocre futures.
They'll still be a good team in a few years but they might regret not committing to winning a cup at their zenith. Colorado has no regrets for recognizing when the team was peaking and committing.
They only have 1-2 years remaining on all of their amazing contracts, this is peak Carolina right now. They should have been heavy buyers the last two years and should be heavy buyers this year and next, but they won't. They'll keep dumpster diving and clinging to mediocre futures.
They'll still be a good team in a few years but they might regret not committing to winning a cup at their zenith. Colorado has no regrets for recognizing when the team was peaking and committing.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Fair. They definitely hit at a much better rate on their high picks than the Canes did in their down years. Something as simple as Nylander over Fleury and McAvoy or Chychrun over Bean and the Canes likely have at least 1 cup in the past half decade IMO. I think they still have a couple years left as the team to beat in the division at least though, they were playing at a 120+ point pace before the Svech injury and if the cap starts escalating as expected they may be able to keep most of the core together.
I mean, hard to say on guys picked during the time period that they've been maximizing the number of picks. They didn't start drafting with this draft strategy until 2019, and in the timeframe have already had Kochetkov and Jarvis make the show, with Nikishin showing as a guy who legitimately would be on that list as well if not for his KHL contract. We likely won't even really begin to see the real results on this draft strategy for another 4 years but some of the early returns are pretty good. Blake, Robidas, Morrow, and Nikishin all look like guys that should have went much higher in their draft years but they didn't fit the traditional draft profile or in Nikishin's case they ignored health concerns and it's paid off so far.
Unfortunately they might not end up being the greatest case study because of how the whole situation with the Chicago Wolves played out. There's at least 4 guys already that for most any other organization would have been signed where their rights were allowed to expire (Orr, Wall) or they are returning to college for another year (Morrow, Rizzo) simply because there's nowhere to put them at present. A good chunk of their European talent is at least able to be loaned back to their teams in the KHL, Liiga, and SHL, but they're still looking for a place for 11 other guys they have under contract to play next season from what I can tell.
Tufted Titmouse
13 Cups.
- Apr 5, 2022
- 6,222
- 8,322
ehh it's kinda early to even evaluate the results.
2018: Svech at 2 obviously was a no-brainer but a stud. Jack Drury in the 2nd round looks like a really solid pick, he's a good asset and has shown well in his limited NHL opportunity so far. No 3rd rounders, a couple 4th rounders not likely NHLers but hit on Sellgren in the 6th round who projects as a future NHL 3rd pair D.
2019: Suzuki in the 1st round is really tough to evaluate due to his strange eye injury that derailed his development. Kochetkov in the 2nd was a great pick already. Rees in the 2nd looks like a future contributor in the bottom 6, Honka looks decent and Rizzo showing well for a 7th rounder.
2020: Jarvis was a great pick, Gunler and Ponomaryev in the 2nd have nice potential and Nikishin in the 3rd was a massive steal. Ronan Sealey in the 7th looking great too for where he was taken.
2021: No 1st rounder, Morrow looking really good for a 2nd rounder despite a bit of a disappointing year. Heimosalmi, Koivunen have some potential still. Guslistov very solid for a 7th rounder and a potential future bottom 6 NHL C.
2022: Hard to evaluate, no 1st and took a lot of boom/bust Russians in this draft.
2023: Obviously just happened so no results
Overall they've hit on several already top 6 F or top 4 D with a handful of others with potential to get there, a stud young G in Kochetkov and others who look like they can be solid depth. No huge glaring misses/busts in there. Suzuki probably the worst, but again no team can predict their 1st round pick getting an eye injury less than a year after the draft that resulted in a permanent blind spot in the middle of his eye...
List of Carolina Hurricanes draft picks - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The two home runs were 2nd and 13th overall. The rest, I feel, is pretty comparable to how most teams fare - some hits and some misses. Nikishin has the possibility of being a big hit if he reaches his potential and also comes to NA.
Every team has their version of Morrow, Drury, etc.
Mark Stones Spleen
Trouba's elbow
KeithIsActuallyBad
SPEEN!
Mark Stones Spleen
Trouba's elbow
KeithIsActuallyBad
SPEEN!
Maybe I've been in a coma the last 15 years but I don't think they've won more than 1 Stanley Cup that came at the expense of my team.
Tufted Titmouse
13 Cups.
- Apr 5, 2022
- 6,222
- 8,322
Top 10 teams in terms of pt% over the last 5 years:
Top 10 playoff wins (included 11 because I am pathetic):
What are you basing "best run team in hockey" on? Revenue, pts%, Cups...none of those metrics would say they are the best run team in hockey.
I would say the best run orgs in the last 5-10 years have been Tampa, Colorado, Boston. Those 3 seem to be the cream of the crop.
The next group would be made up of Carolina, Vegas, St. Louis, maybe Dallas.
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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Seems hard to disprove the bad grades at the deadline given the difference in success between the regular season and playoffs. In theory, giving yourself as many opportunities as possible in a good strategy but winning in the playoffs is also not a pure luck play like Roulette, so at some point you might have to assume something is wrong with the mix and make substantive changes.
- Mar 10, 2010
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The one thing to keep in mind on this topic is survivorship bias. It’s an easy “yes” when you gauge the cost benefit of going all on rentals looking back after winning the cup. However, how about the other 15 teams that give up assets for their crack at the cup and come up empty. So much draft capital squandered with nothing to show for it.
When you are a rich team, and attract free agents easy, it’s not as punitive but if the opposite is true then draft capital is gold.
When you are a rich team, and attract free agents easy, it’s not as punitive but if the opposite is true then draft capital is gold.
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GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
I think the term 'best run team in hockey' is a bit hyperbole and also kind of impossible to prove. I think it's fair to say they are a very process driven org with a clear strategy and road map for how they operate and this has brought a good amount of success.
I don't disagree with your claim that over the last 5 years it would be fair to put Boston, Tampa, Colorado, Vegas ahead of the Canes if we are only looking at results, but I think it's equally important to look at what each of these organizations were working with from the start of 5 years ago, and what has led to their success.
Tampa, Colorado, and Boston all had elite talent and major building blocks in place already. They sustained success but didn't really have to do a ton to get them to a high level... they were already there. Going into the 2018-2019 season, the Canes were viewed to be a bottom feeder team that lacked any elite talent and a fairly weak pipeline overall. They were gifted Svech at #2 in the draft and that certainly helped to some degree but not nearly on par with what the upper echelon teams in the league had. In a very short period of time they went from a loser team and org to one of the best in the league by just about any metric. Ownership, coaching, culture changes have led to that as well as front office approach. It was a complete overhaul.
Overall I think you would have to say Vegas is the best run team in the league over the last 5 years because they literally did it from nothing. They have been to 2 cup finals, won 1 of them (very convincingly) and made a conference final. That's an excellent 5 year stretch for any team but even more so for a team starting from scratch.
You can make arguments for all of the other teams over that stretch as 2nd place, and if you want to place more importance on cup wins then that's perfectly fair, but Carolina absolutely deserves to be in that conversation as a top 5 run org based on process and results.
Also, while I totally understand you wanting to include playoff wins for selfish reasons but really, it should be playoff series wins that are more important. Doesn't matter if you sweep or get swept honestly, you won or lost the series and that's all that truly matters. So for the Leafs... yeah, that's not gonna be a great stat to go by but at the end of the day that's a better gauge of how successful you are in the playoffs.
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Archijerej
Registered User
This was basically Marc Bergevin's strategy in his last three years, except for the making the playoffs part.
