Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[bleedgreen]

I think you'll be surprised at how a 31 year old making 5 mil per for the next 4 years, coming off the season he just had (pacing for 16 goals and 42 points over 82 games), considering the advantageous situation he was in (74% o-zone starts mostly beside Crosby and Malkin) is perceived.

Teams are not going to want to take on that contract. Pens will either move him for next to nothing - if not at a loss - or hang onto him and hope he recoups some value. I could see a bottom feeder picking up Smith for a 3rd or 4th, spoon feeding him minutes and hoping to deal him for a 2nd at the deadline with retention.

This is why your comparison of RR to Bunting is ridiculous. Bunting is two to three years younger, is outscoring him, is scoring at a higher rate with the Pens and only has two years left at 4.5. RR is struggling at 30 with four years left at 5….

In what world do these two have the same value?!? Were you able to type that comparison with a straight face? Smith is four years older with term left, Bunting is cheaper and out scoring him. Bunting brings more to the table (whether you can stand that part of the game or not) then either of them do.

Saying Bunting is a no value player who has the same trade value as those two was one of the more ridiculous things you’ve said in this thread. Which is impressive considering your body of work.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

This is why your comparison of RR to Bunting is ridiculous. Bunting is two to three years younger, is outscoring him, is scoring at a higher rate with the Pens and only has two years left at 4.5. RR is struggling at 30 with four years left at 5….

In what world do these two have the same value?!? Were you able to type that comparison with a straight face? Smith is four years older with term left, Bunting is cheaper and out scoring him. Bunting brings more to the table (whether you can stand that part of the game or not) then either of them do.

Saying Bunting is a no value player who has the same trade value as those two was one of the more ridiculous things you’ve said in this thread. Which is impressive considering your body of work.

And Smith has only one year left at 5 mil, has put up virtually identical numbers to Bunting this year and last, plays defense that Bunting can't, and I don't attribute any more value to him than a 3rd or 4th this summer either.

Last season, we got Smith for a 3rd with 2 years left on his deal, coming off a better season than Bunting this year.

He's a top 6 3rd wheel making top 6 3rd wheel money. You can sign these players in UFA any given year - you don't make them a cornerstone of a Guentzel deal.

Guentzel has 12 points in 8 games. That's an actual needle mover.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

 

[Gurglesons]

Good player. Crazy that Dubas got burned for both the LW and RW on Carolina’s top line.

 

[chethejet]

We will see on Jake. Jeff carter was the second coming for a while when he joined the Pens. Let the Canes sign him for 9 million AAV for 7 years. Bunting is a good LW and gives the Pens some play that they haven't had here. No one is saying they are close. But if Pens hit on a couple of the prospects with Bunting, that is a very good deal for the Pens.

 

[newsportsfan123]

We will see on Jake. Jeff carter was the second coming for a while when he joined the Pens. Let the Canes sign him for 9 million AAV for 7 years. Bunting is a good LW and gives the Pens some play that they haven't had here. No one is saying they are close. But if Pens hit on a couple of the prospects with Bunting, that is a very good deal for the Pens.

Jeff Carter was 36…

 

[spockBokk]

We will see on Jake. Jeff carter was the second coming for a while when he joined the Pens. Let the Canes sign him for 9 million AAV for 7 years. Bunting is a good LW and gives the Pens some play that they haven't had here. No one is saying they are close. But if Pens hit on a couple of the prospects with Bunting, that is a very good deal for the Pens.

I’d be flabbergasted if the Canes offered him $9M.

 

[Gurglesons]

I’d be flabbergasted if the Canes offered him $9M.

Would be shocked to see him get less..

 

[Boxscore]

Would be shocked to see him get less..

He will need to leave money on the table to stay with the Canes. If he feels it's the best fit and he can make another 4-5 runs at the Cup, it could be worth eating a few bucks. Living in Carolina, playing in a low-pressure situation on a stacked team with talent like Nikishin and Nadeau about to join the fold is a very cozy situation for a player. Not to mention they are well-coached and have such a fun vibe going for them with all the cool things they do for the fans. Playing for the Canes could be one of the best situations to be in right now, top-to-bottom.

 

[Gurglesons]

He will need to leave money on the table to stay with the Canes. If he feels it's the best fit and he can make another 4-5 runs at the Cup, it could be worth eating a few bucks.

Doubt it. He's going to cash in. Already has a cup.

 

[Boxscore]

Doubt it. He's going to cash in. Already has a cup.

Either way he's cashing in. But, if the Canes offer him a competitive long-term deal, there's zero chance he's giving up the chance to play with Aho and Svechnikov in sunny Carolina just to make an extra couple mil in a lesser situation. Unless he wants to sign long-term in Chicago, or a surprise team like the Avs find money for him, I don't see him anxious to leave the Canes. Just my opinion.

 

[Bruce Granville]

I’d be flabbergasted if the Canes offered him $9M.

6x10 + 2x2

 

[Turin]

Still astonished some people are mad that Guentzel got the most back from any rental UFA in the salary cap era, as if it wasn't enough.

Happy he's doing well. Still want him to come back, but he wasn't gonna be doing this with Pittsburgh the rest of this season anyway. If there was a chance he was gonna leave, you had to deal him.

 

[66-30-33]

Pens offer Jake 1M a year to a 7 year deal. Leaves money on the table for Pens to get more good wingers at 1M/year and we will make a god team full of old people!

 

[Gurglesons]

Still astonished some people are mad that Guentzel got the most back from any rental UFA in the salary cap era, as if it wasn't enough.

Happy he's doing well. Still want him to come back, but he wasn't gonna be doing this with Pittsburgh the rest of this season anyway. If there was a chance he was gonna leave, you had to deal him.

Take off the black and gold glasses lol.

Either way he's cashing in. But, if the Canes offer him a competitive long-term deal, there's zero chance he's giving up the chance to play with Aho and Svechnikov in sunny Carolina just to make an extra couple mil in a lesser situation. Unless he wants to sign long-term in Chicago, or a surprise team like the Avs find money for him, I don't see him anxious to leave the Canes. Just my opinion.

so offer him 9 mil x 7.

Maybe you can take him down to 8.5 mil. What loyalty does he have to stay in Carolina?

 

[Chan790]

Take off the black and gold glasses lol.



so offer him 9 mil x 7.

Maybe you can take him down to 8.5 mil. What loyalty does he have to stay in Carolina?

None. I think the pressure here is on Carolina. I've been saying it for a while, the Canes need 6 top-6 F and 4 top-4 D, everything else is fungible and you make your hard decisions elsewhere.

If Guentzel leaves or we trade Necas, you have to replace them somehow...and I don't see how we can.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Either way he's cashing in. But, if the Canes offer him a competitive long-term deal, there's zero chance he's giving up the chance to play with Aho and Svechnikov in sunny Carolina just to make an extra couple mil in a lesser situation. Unless he wants to sign long-term in Chicago, or a surprise team like the Avs find money for him, I don't see him anxious to leave the Canes. Just my opinion.

Might not be a lesser situation.

There was only one other team in the league that had a better present than the Pens in 2008, and none with a better future, but Hossa still picked Detroit.

 

[SomeDude]

Still astonished some people are mad that Guentzel got the most back from any rental UFA in the salary cap era, as if it wasn't enough.

Repeating this doesn’t make it any more true.

Just look back at the Smyth trade, Edmonton got a 1st and Isles top 2 prospects: O’Marra and Nilsson, both recent 1st round picks. At the time Nilsson was in his rookie year and looking pretty good.

So, essentially 3 first round picks in value for a pure rental. Not only that, the best the Pens can do is the 31st pick in the unlikely event Carolina makes it to the Finals. Edmonton got 15 overall in that deal.

They all busted (like the odds are all/most of the pieces the Pens got will), but hindsight doesn’t mean it wasn’t more value. It took 30 seconds to find this one and I’m sure there are more.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Repeating this doesn’t make it any more true.

Just look back at the Smyth trade, Edmonton got a 1st and Isles top 2 prospects: O’Marra and Nilsson, both recent 1st round picks. At the time Nilsson was in his rookie year and looking pretty good.

So, essentially 3 first round picks in value for a pure rental. Not only that, the best the Pens can do is the 31st pick in the unlikely event Carolina makes it to the Finals. Edmonton got 15 overall in that deal.

They all busted (like the odds are all/most of the pieces the Pens got will), but hindsight doesn’t mean it wasn’t more value. It took 30 seconds to find this one and I’m sure there are more.

Pens trade for Hossa.

 

[mattihp]

Koivunen with assists on both Kärpät goals right now

 

[bleedgreen]

Repeating this doesn’t make it any more true.

Just look back at the Smyth trade, Edmonton got a 1st and Isles top 2 prospects: O’Marra and Nilsson, both recent 1st round picks. At the time Nilsson was in his rookie year and looking pretty good.

So, essentially 3 first round picks in value for a pure rental. Not only that, the best the Pens can do is the 31st pick in the unlikely event Carolina makes it to the Finals. Edmonton got 15 overall in that deal.

They all busted (like the odds are all/most of the pieces the Pens got will), but hindsight doesn’t mean it wasn’t more value. It took 30 seconds to find this one and I’m sure there are more.

Thank you for being the first person to at least make an effort.

I’d take the canes package all day. Pono is at least equivalent to O’Marra. He’s more developed and has had more success at the AHL level than O’Marra would have early on. Nilsson to Kouivunen is to me at worst comparable and I’d take Koivunen. Nilsson has already played in the NHL and had been demoted for over a year to the AHL. He was always questionable to make it as he was undersized and while skilled unlikely to skill his way to an NHL career, he didn’t play two ways. He had fallen from grace as a top prospect for the Isles and was a bit of a reclamation project for the Oilers. Koivunen has been on a better development path and hasn’t already failed at his first attempt at the NHL. If you did both their drafts over both of these Canes prospects would be in the first round. The drop in picks is there, but the pens also got Bunting who is a top six winger right now on an affordable contract for two more years. Plus a ppg prospect. The pick is Philly’s second at worst. I know a first would look better but a late round first is no different than a second to me because everyone lists are so different, but that’s not a good argument here.

So you had to got back SIXTEEN YEARS to find a comparable trade. Smyth was a captain, a heart and soul grinder and a guy who could score big goals. Jake is a better pure skill guy who has great intangibles and Smyth was a better leader/intangibles guy who had good skill. I think they’re comparable but it was a bigger deal across the league imo that Smyth got traded.

So this is the fight against this Jake trade not being good enough. Sixteen years ago Smyth got a comparable package that I’m sure some people will try to argue was better. It wasn’t imo. I think this is just further proof the Pens made out very well here and the Canes paid a steep price. It’s one of the biggest if not the biggest return for a rental in 20 years. Quit your complaining and get your posts about how bad you screwed the Canes over and how you knew it the whole time if you can get Jake back in the summer.

 

[SomeDude]

Thank you for being the first person to at least make an effort.

I’d take the canes package all day. Pono is at least equivalent to O’Marra. He’s more developed and has had more success at the AHL level than O’Marra would have early on. Nilsson to Kouivunen is to me at worst comparable and I’d take Koivunen. Nilsson has already played in the NHL and had been demoted for over a year to the AHL. He was always questionable to make it as he was undersized and while skilled unlikely to skill his way to an NHL career, he didn’t play two ways. He had fallen from grace as a top prospect for the Isles and was a bit of a reclamation project for the Oilers. Koivunen has been on a better development path and hasn’t already failed at his first attempt at the NHL. If you did both their drafts over both of these Canes prospects would be in the first round. The drop in picks is there, but the pens also got Bunting who is a top six winger right now on an affordable contract for two more years. Plus a ppg prospect. The pick is Philly’s second at worst. I know a first would look better but a late round first is no different than a second to me because everyone lists are so different, but that’s not a good argument here.

So you had to got back SIXTEEN YEARS to find a comparable trade. Smyth was a captain, a heart and soul grinder and a guy who could score big goals. Jake is a better pure skill guy who has great intangibles and Smyth was a better leader/intangibles guy who had good skill. I think they’re comparable but it was a bigger deal across the league imo that Smyth got traded.

So this is the fight against this Jake trade not being good enough. Sixteen years ago Smyth got a comparable package that I’m sure some people will try to argue was better. It wasn’t imo. I think this is just further proof the Pens made out very well here and the Canes paid a steep price. It’s one of the biggest if not the biggest return for a rental in 20 years. Quit your complaining and get your posts about how bad you screwed the Canes over and how you knew it the whole time if you can get Jake back in the summer.

I didn’t have to go back 16 years. I clicked on a random year post 05/06 on capfriendly trade history and looked. Like I said, it took 30 seconds.

None of the prospects the Pens received are in the same level of where both O’Marra and Nilsson were regarded when the trade happened.

All the rest is just fluff. Those are the facts.

Jake is also not coming back here. The Pens suck and are going to suck for a long time. Getting out and playing meaningful games again will make Jake wonder why he didn’t want to leave earlier. Dubas himself said they had no talks of extension once the season started. The only people who think he’s coming back are delusional Pens fans.

I’m also not saying the Pens got ripped off. It’s possible the guys they got turn out to be successful. If there is any one area that I kind of sort of trust Dubas, it would be scouting.

I fully disagree with the notion it’s the “highest price ever paid for a rental” is all. The price paid is on par with what the top few options at the deadline go for typically.

I believe Guentzel is one of the best players to ever be available at the deadline (talking currently play, not past their prime) and feel the return was a bit underwhelming as such. In the end, the market dictates the price and it is what it is. Maybe in 30 years Dubas will write a book and tell the other offers but we’ll likely never know.

 

[bleedgreen]

I didn’t have to go back 16 years. I clicked on a random year post 05/06 on capfriendly trade history and looked. Like I said, it took 30 seconds.

None of the prospects the Pens received are in the same level of where both O’Marra and Nilsson were regarded when the trade happened.

All the rest is just fluff. Those are the facts.

Jake is also not coming back here. The Pens suck and are going to suck for a long time. Getting out and playing meaningful games again will make Jake wonder why he didn’t want to leave earlier. Dubas himself said they had no talks of extension once the season started. The only people who think he’s coming back are delusional Pens fans.

I’m also not saying the Pens got ripped off. It’s possible the guys they got turn out to be successful. If there is any one area that I kind of sort of trust Dubas, it would be scouting.

I fully disagree with the notion it’s the “highest price ever paid for a rental” is all. The price paid is on par with what the top few options at the deadline go for typically.

I believe Guentzel is one of the best players to ever be available at the deadline (talking currently play, not past their prime) and feel the return was a bit underwhelming as such. In the end, the market dictates the price and it is what it is. Maybe in 30 years Dubas will write a book and tell the other offers but we’ll likely never know.

lol then find more if there’s so many and it isn’t big deal. It’s a rental. You’re making it sound like it’s what the top few options go for every year, then find more examples. This isn’t on par with anything aside from the best deals out there for a couple of generations.

Koivunen is absolutely at the same level if not higher than either of those two. O’Marra didn’t exactly have the highest expectations bud. Nilsson had already washed out with the Isles. Koivunen finished sixth in the league in scoring, almost a ppg and it’s against men. He’s the same age Nilsson was at the time of the trade. Nilsson was on his way down as a top prospect and Koivunen is still on his way up.

It WAS 16 years ago! Who cares how long it took to look up lol. It isn’t hard to look any of it up. The point has been that for all the complaining no one would take the five seconds and even try to make the argument. This is at least the equivalent to that trade, and that was a huge trade. It’s not remotely underwhelming.

 

[Darren McCord]

Either way he's cashing in. But, if the Canes offer him a competitive long-term deal, there's zero chance he's giving up the chance to play with Aho and Svechnikov in sunny Carolina just to make an extra couple mil in a lesser situation. Unless he wants to sign long-term in Chicago, or a surprise team like the Avs find money for him, I don't see him anxious to leave the Canes. Just my opinion.

He will be anxious for money and his last contract. He will be the top UFA prize on the market. He can easily get 9+

I could see him going to a team like Buffalo as well. they have 20 mill in cap space with like no one to sign.

Buffalo is close and a player like Jake will make them a playoff team.

 

[SomeDude]

Koivunen is absolutely at the same level if not higher than either of those two. O’Marra didn’t exactly have the highest expectations bud. Nilsson had already washed out with the Isles. Koivunen finished sixth in the league in scoring, almost a ppg and it’s against men. He’s the same age Nilsson was at the time of the trade. Nilsson was on his way down as a top prospect and Koivunen is still on his way up.

This is why it’s hard to take you serious. You are false. O’Marra was projected as a potential top 5 pick heading into the draft year. I had partial season tickets for the Otters back then. Nilsson in no way “washed out” with the Isles by the trade. He already had NHL games under his belt and was almost a PPG in the AHL. Koivunen has played great and is the best piece they got, but he’s hardly a sure bet.