Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[Dipsy Doodle]

Koivunen had 56 points in 59 games in Liiga as a 20 year old. Why would you assume that he has a bottom 6 ceiling?? He might be in Pittsburgh's bottom 6 next year, but his ceiling is absolutely top 6.

I also realize it's not sexy to bring up, but Bunting wasn't a cap dump here. He was on a 50 point pace for Carolina like last year in Toronto and he has hit 60 points in Toronto with great centers. And he will have great center play in Pittsburgh. Worst case scenario Bunting is another asset to flip for even more prospects in a year or 2.

Re-read what I wrote. I made specific mention of top 6 3rd wheel.

Bunting is an adequate 2nd liner, not unlike Rakell or Smith in terms of recent production and impact. The problem is that all of those players are about 3 tiers below an elite winger like Guentzel, and there's no replacing him.

 

[FerrisRox]

Re-read what I wrote. I made specific mention of top 6 3rd wheel.

Bunting is an adequate 2nd liner, not unlike Rakell or Smith in terms of recent production and impact. The problem is that all of those players are about 3 tiers below an elite winger like Guentzel, and there's no replacing him.

I don't think that Michael Bunting is an "adequate 2nd liner" on a good hockey team.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

For context:

"Any romantic notion that the Penguins are going to reverse course and offer Guentzel a contract extension would appear to be misguided. No serious discussions between Guentzel’s agent (Ben Hankinson) and Dubas have ever taken place.

Guentzel has zero desire to leave Pittsburgh, but no one is expecting him to stay past this week."

https://theathletic.com/5323245/2024/03/07/jake-guentzel-trade-rumors-penguins/

"Dubas said the Penguins attempted to sign Guentzel prior to the season, but when it didn’t happen, he chose to keep their positioning and options open after the year began.

“The way that I have to look at it is, do I believe in the group? Yes, I do. I think we showed that in the summer trying to improve it every way we can. We can argue about the success of those transactions and moves, and that's fine,” Dubas said. “But once it starts, my job is to take care of the long-term of the group. When we couldn't get to that point – and I don't blame them for one second if they think that maybe we should have gone further – I think Jake deserves all that he gets.

“So, if there's any blame to go on that, I would take it myself, but I viewed it at that point as, once we got to a certain level, that we had to then go through the year and see the way that the year went. In the event that we’re in the spot that we're in, or we had a lot of injuries and we weren't in the mix, (then) we would have the ability to move either Jake or others to begin to recoup some assets.”

Guentzel was anything but intent on leaving Pittsburgh. Dubas just wasn't playing ball. It's all there in black and white.

https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/dubas-talks-deadline-tough-decision-to-trade-guentzel

I don't think that Michael Bunting is an "adequate 2nd liner" on a good hockey team.

I may have been too generous.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I’m still confused. Was there a better offer out there? How did Dubas do a bad job getting one the best rental returns out there?

That's my question. I can't imagine there were any better offers out there. I thought Vancouver was going to make a play for him but that probably involved moving Lindholm to a 3rd party (wasn't that the rumor?).

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That's my question. I can't imagine there were any better offers out there. I thought Vancouver was going to make a play for him but that probably involved moving Lindholm to a 3rd party (wasn't that the rumor?).

Guentzel.

Didn't.

Want.

To.

Go.

Dubas forced his hand...to get an underwhelming collection of low ceiling prospects. That is the problem.

 

[bleedgreen]

Guentzel.

Didn't.

Want.

To.

Go.

Dubas forced his hand...to get an underwhelming collection of low ceiling prospects. That is the problem.

You’d have them sign Jake to an 8 year extension? He’s 29/30 and not a speedster. Brains can get you places but for how long?

It’s completely fair for Dubas to not believe in the group anymore after giving it a season. Not a lot of people outside of Pittsburgh believe in that group. Hating on the gm for recognizing it and shifting gears doesn’t make any sense. Hating on the return makes even less sense. No one has provided me a better return for a rental in comparison.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

The best rental on the market, but that's not even the main point.

If the return was going to be that low, the Pens were better served keeping an elite winger they won't be able to replace than add mediocre prospect depth that likely won't help them much now or later.


See above.

The Pens got five assets for two to four months of a player. A roster player, three second round prospects, and an additional 2nd that could turn into a first is a damn good haul for not coming with an extension to Carolina, especially when you could potentially get the player back after the season.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Guentzel.

Didn't.

Want.

To.

Go.

Dubas forced his hand...to get an underwhelming collection of low ceiling prospects. That is the problem.

So can't they just re-sign him in the offseason?

 

[SEALBound]

Given the state of the Penguins, trading Jake was the correct decision. That is what teams do when they are in the position the Penguins are in. Penguins fans have screamed for years for "good asset management" and when a GM finally does it, they are pissed. Pretty typical.

If Jake didn't want to leave, he can say no to any and all offers and resign with the Penguins on July 1st. There is absolutely NOTHING that suggests that will not (or cannot) happen. Nothing.

The return for Jake is about as good as you're going to get for a rental (which was 1000% his understood situation at the time of the trade). It's all about perspective though.

Bunting, Pono, Koivunen, Luius, 1st/2nd, 5th. I mean, I don't know of any recent rental trades that brought back that much. But if the trade was:

Bunting, 2024 2nd, 2025 2nd, 2024 4th, conditional 2024 1st (or 2026 2nd), and a conditional 5th - Penguins fans would likely have been going bonkers over what a haul a roster player, 3 2nds, a 4th, and 5th was. The difference here is that we have good insight as to how 2 of those 2nd round picks and the 4th are turning out 1-3 years past their draft date. Dubas said he wanted players over picks. He got it. He wanted to restock the Penguins prospect pool. He did it.

We all knew Jake was going to play well. This isn't a shock to literally anyone that has an IQ higher than a bottle of ketchup. It's why teams wanted him and it's why he went for more than a 2nd + 4th as most other rental top 6 wings did.

I just don't see the problem. There is no problem. There is only whining.

 

[chethejet]

Dubas had more insight as things went along. The Pens aged out faster than most expected. He saw the play and quite frankly is not going to expose his plan here. He will move assets like Rust, Karlsson after next year with favorable contracts. He will trade Smith at the draft. Jake was simply a luxury on the titanic. Pens are going south and a complete rebuild is now the direction. sullivan will be back as his deal is to much for them to eat. But Dubas will get assistant coaches who bring a much-needed change to an outdated stale system. Sullivan after next year is gone unless he changes what he is coaching.

 

[Ezpz]

Dubas had more insight as things went along. The Pens aged out faster than most expected. He saw the play and quite frankly is not going to expose his plan here. He will move assets like Rust, Karlsson after next year with favorable contracts. He will trade Smith at the draft. Jake was simply a luxury on the titanic. Pens are going south and a complete rebuild is now the direction. sullivan will be back as his deal is to much for them to eat. But Dubas will get assistant coaches who bring a much-needed change to an outdated stale system. Sullivan after next year is gone unless he changes what he is coaching.

Now we see why hextall didn't want to extend Letang or Malkin. I'm sure he and burke thought they were cooked with that core as well but they wanted to set the record for longest three team mates. They're still good players but you can't build a core around them anymore. I wonder if they'll try to trade all three to the same destination.

 

[Chrispy]

Re-read what I wrote. I made specific mention of top 6 3rd wheel.

Bunting is an adequate 2nd liner, not unlike Rakell or Smith in terms of recent production and impact. The problem is that all of those players are about 3 tiers below an elite winger like Guentzel, and there's no replacing him.

I don't think PPG in a men's league at age 20 tops out as a third wheel on the top 6 either. He's about a year behind where Aho was in development, as Aho's transition year at Karpat came before he was drafted, while Koivunen had a transition year at Karpat after being drafted before blowing up this year.

You're not getting a guaranteed Guentzel replacement for 2-3 months of Guentzel. That's not realistic.

 

[Unsustainable]

We told yall he was good.

I knew he was good. He was the one I wanted most after the EP40 trade didnt happen.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You’d have them sign Jake to an 8 year extension? He’s 29/30 and not a speedster. Brains can get you places but for how long?

It’s completely fair for Dubas to not believe in the group anymore after giving it a season. Not a lot of people outside of Pittsburgh believe in that group. Hating on the gm for recognizing it and shifting gears doesn’t make any sense. Hating on the return makes even less sense. No one has provided me a better return for a rental in comparison.

Ask Joe Pavelski. High IQ players typically age well since theyre not dependent on wheels. I'm confident in Guentzel being worth the contract he gets for the duration of Crosby's run in Pittsburgh, and tradeable afterward.

In terms of consistency, you're not going to get a much better bet at wing than Guentzel in FA. Which, again, is why trading him for a collection of middling prospects isn't a prudent move if you genuinely have designs on competing, which Dubas has gone on record to say. He also said prior to the deadline that he would prioritize quality over quantity in a Guentzel deal, which also came up short.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

So can't they just re-sign him in the offseason?

If you were a player that wanted to stay somewhere, but the GM didn't make any attempts to re-sign you since the off-season and traded you, would you feel valued by the org?

If you had a good playoff run with a younger team that did prioritize you, would you be inclined to go back to the one that didn't?

Things get a lot murkier. What was once a sure thing becomes a shot in the dark. Which is why those sorts of re-signs after deadline deals are so rare.

 

[Lemieuxs]

Jake is going to get over 10M.
He deserves it too.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you were a player that wanted to stay somewhere, but the GM didn't make any attempts to re-sign you since the off-season and traded you, would you feel valued by the org?

If you had a good playoff run with a younger team that did prioritize you, would you be inclined to go back to the one that didn't?

Things get a lot murkier. What was once a sure thing becomes a shot in the dark. Which is why those sorts of re-signs after deadline deals are so rare.

It’s almost been 2 weeks. Get over it.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I don't think PPG in a men's league at age 20 tops out as a third wheel on the top 6 either. He's about a year behind where Aho was in development, as Aho's transition year at Karpat came before he was drafted, while Koivunen had a transition year at Karpat after being drafted before blowing up this year.

You're not getting a guaranteed Guentzel replacement for 2-3 months of Guentzel. That's not realistic.

Do you believe Koivunen's realistic ceiling is to be a first option winger on a scoring line? Truly? Because I believe that would be a minority opinion.

And Guentzel is well beyond that. So no, nobody expected a guaranteed Guentzel replacement. But a prospect with a good chance at being a good scoring line winger should've been the bare minimum.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

But a player with a good chance at being a goid scoring line winger should've neen a bare minimum.

Literally Koivunen.

And a prospect with a good chance at being a useful middle 6 player.

And a current 50 point player.

And a pick from 30-50.

And a decent lottery ticket in Lucius, who leads his team in scoring in the NCAA.

You can keep throwing your two week hissy fit or you can recognize that even if you hate every piece involved, Dubas got a lot of legitimate pieces (AKA not crap) for a rental winger in a year where trade values seemed to be very low.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Literally Koivunen.

And a prospect with a good chance at being a useful middle 6 player.

And a current 50 point player.

And a pick from 30-50.

And a decent lottery ticket in Lucius, who leads his team in scoring in the NCAA.

You can keep throwing your two week hissy fit or you can recognize that even if you hate every piece involved, Dubas got a lot of legitimate pieces (AKA not crap) for a rental winger in a year where trade values seemed to be very low.

Koivunen does not have a good chance at being a good scoring line winger. He has a chance, if everything breaks right, at some point becoming some kind of top 6 winger, but that's not the same thing at all. We have a lot of top 6 wingers now, but Rust's the only good one...and not a very good first option either.

It's a pure quantity for quality deal (again, contrary to Dubas' stated objective) that officially closed any hope of the Pens contending, and all for a lesser return than anyone - even most opposition fans - were predicting.

At a certain point Dubas decided that getting anything for Guentzel was better than nothing in some misguided attempt to kickstart the post-Crosby era. We'd have been better off if we'd kept Guentzel and flushed the rest of the wretched complementary pieces.

Sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It’s almost been 2 weeks. Get over it.

That reply button is optional.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

If you were a player that wanted to stay somewhere, but the GM didn't make any attempts to re-sign you since the off-season and traded you, would you feel valued by the org?

If you had a good playoff run with a younger team that did prioritize you, would you be inclined to go back to the one that didn't?

Things get a lot murkier. What was once a sure thing becomes a shot in the dark. Which is why those sorts of re-signs after deadline deals are so rare.

So Guentzel didn't want to go circa the trade deadline, but he was also mad that Dubas didn't make him feel valued?

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

So can't they just re-sign him in the offseason?

With all due respect, why would Guentzel want to go back? The Pens are not going to be a contender for a while and his skills would just be absolutely wasted there. Sid and Malkin are probably retiring in a year or 2 and then there's really nothing worth being around for.

He's better off making a name for himself elsewhere and proving he didn't need to play in their shadow to be good.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Koivunen does not have a good chance at being a good scoring line winger. He has a chance, if everything breaks right, at some point becoming some kind of top 6 winger, but that's not the same thing at all. We have a lot of top 6 wingers now, but Rust's the only good one...and not a very good first option either.

It's a pure quantity for quality deal (again, contrary to Dubas' stated objective) that officially closed any hope of the Pens contending, and all for a lesser return than anyone - even most opposition fans - were predicting.

At a certain point Dubas decided that getting anything for Guentzel was better than nothing in some misguided attempt to kickstart the post-Crosby era. We'd have been better off if we'd kept Guentzel and flushed the rest of the wretched complementary pieces.

Sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

I’d say Koivunen has a 25% chance to be a top 6 wing. That’s pretty good.

on the bolded- says the grown man throwing a fit that his team traded Jake Guentzel lmao. Can’t even save it for a Crosby level player haha

 

[Turin]

For context:

"Any romantic notion that the Penguins are going to reverse course and offer Guentzel a contract extension would appear to be misguided. No serious discussions between Guentzel’s agent (Ben Hankinson) and Dubas have ever taken place.

Guentzel has zero desire to leave Pittsburgh, but no one is expecting him to stay past this week."

https://theathletic.com/5323245/2024/03/07/jake-guentzel-trade-rumors-penguins/

"Dubas said the Penguins attempted to sign Guentzel prior to the season, but when it didn’t happen, he chose to keep their positioning and options open after the year began.

“The way that I have to look at it is, do I believe in the group? Yes, I do. I think we showed that in the summer trying to improve it every way we can. We can argue about the success of those transactions and moves, and that's fine,” Dubas said. “But once it starts, my job is to take care of the long-term of the group. When we couldn't get to that point – and I don't blame them for one second if they think that maybe we should have gone further – I think Jake deserves all that he gets.

“So, if there's any blame to go on that, I would take it myself, but I viewed it at that point as, once we got to a certain level, that we had to then go through the year and see the way that the year went. In the event that we’re in the spot that we're in, or we had a lot of injuries and we weren't in the mix, (then) we would have the ability to move either Jake or others to begin to recoup some assets.”

Guentzel was anything but intent on leaving Pittsburgh. Dubas just wasn't playing ball. It's all there in black and white.

https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/dubas-talks-deadline-tough-decision-to-trade-guentzel

I may have been too generous.

I don’t believe any of that, there’s no reason to.