Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

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I don't think Carolina has ever had a player come in at the deadline and perform the way Guentzel has. Like, 8 points in 5 games is insane and normally it takes a bit for players to learn the system. Kuznetsov is also fitting in well with 5 points in 7 games which is probably more surprising considering he was one of the worst forwards this year.

(Playoffs + Regular Season)
Vincent Trocheck: 1-3-4 (15 gp)
Brady Skjei: 0-3-3 (15 gp)
Sami Vatanen: 0-3-3 (7 gp)

If we go farther back
Cory Stillman: 5-11-16 (21 gp)
Erik Cole 2-18-20 (35 gp)
Jussi Jokinen: 8-14-22 (45 gp)
Tuomo Ruutu: 4-7-11 (17 gp)
Anson Carter: 1-0-1 (10 gp)
Mark Reechi: 11-12-23
Doug Weight: 7-22-29 (46 gp)

Cheering for the Canes unless they face Toronto in the East.

Guentzel is commanding 8+ 9 million for a reason. 40 goal scorer. Solid set up man. Playoff point per game player.

May be the goal scorer needed to help the Canes get to the 3rd or 4th round.
 
I don't think Carolina has ever had a player come in at the deadline and perform the way Guentzel has. Like, 8 points in 5 games is insane and normally it takes a bit for players to learn the system. Kuznetsov is also fitting in well with 5 points in 7 games which is probably more surprising considering he was one of the worst forwards this year.

(Playoffs + Regular Season)
Vincent Trocheck: 1-3-4 (15 gp)
Brady Skjei: 0-3-3 (15 gp)
Sami Vatanen: 0-3-3 (7 gp)

If we go farther back
Cory Stillman: 5-11-16 (21 gp)
Erik Cole 2-18-20 (35 gp)
Jussi Jokinen: 8-14-22 (45 gp)
Tuomo Ruutu: 4-7-11 (17 gp)
Anson Carter: 1-0-1 (10 gp)
Mark Reechi: 11-12-23
Doug Weight: 7-22-29 (46 gp)
okay, but have you considered that you're wrong and that the analysis from Nucks fans (and others) leading up to the deadline is actually more accurate than literally Guentzel's entire career on-ice performance?
 
Guentzel has been a great fit on the team. He came as advertised. Poor defensively, but excellent nose for the net and great vision offensively. His best attribute indeed is finding smart plays for high danger shots in the slot. He is a wizard of knowing when to pass and shoot. His shot is deceptive.

The Canes have had to adjust a lot to get an infusion of skill from Kuznetsov and Guentzel. They literally aren't used to guys making that pretty pass on a 2-on-1 and are seemingly used to trying to shoot through a goalie and not around him. :laugh:

Also we need to not play Jarvis with Aho + Guentzel as Jarvis is going to score 40 points in the last 15 games and price himself out with his next contract. Gotta put him back on the Staal & Martinook line as it's best for the team. :naughty:
Been watching your team and I agree. He's a good fit. Carolina is filled with structurally sound and defensively responsible players. It insulates him well and allows him to do what he does best. I hope he extends with you guys. He'd be wasted on a rebuilding penguins team.
 
Opinion hasn't changed since the trade:

Pens got fleeced.

Deserved a much better return for what Guentzel brings a team than a grab bag of 2nd rounders. Should've re-signed him instead.
Presumably it was the best return they had available so what can you do :dunno:

I doubt their ability to re-sign Guentzel depended on if he stayed there or not. I'm sure Jake is seeing what everybody is seeing where the Pens are headed, and playoff teams will for sure be interested. Low chance he would've signed with the Pens on July 1st without thinking through the other options first.

And if the Pens for some reason are willing to load up the cash to try and entice him with money, this trade doesn't prevent them from doing so after the cap goes up.
 
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The best trade piece in 2 decades and Dubas absolutely blew it.
Not only that, but a better winger than the Pens are going to see for the rest of Crosby's time here. They ain't replacing Guentzel.

Presumably it was the best return they had available so what can you do :dunno:

I doubt their ability to re-sign Guentzel depended on if he stayed there or not. I'm sure Jake is seeing what everybody is seeing where the Pens are headed, and playoff teams will for sure be interested. Low chance he would've signed with the Pens on July 1st without thinking through the other options first.

And if the Pens for some reason are willing to load up the cash to try and entice him with money, this trade doesn't prevent them from doing so after the cap goes up.
All signs are that the Pens didn't make any overtures since last off-season.

Given that approach, and the fact that they moved him, its doubtful he returns. He was not prioritized, and he should have been.
 
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Opinion hasn't changed since the trade:

Pens got fleeced.

Deserved a much better return for what Guentzel brings a team than a grab bag of 2nd rounders. Should've re-signed him instead.
You're prob right about his value being more than what they got.

but I struggle to understand why you think they should have re-signed him. For what purpose? The Pens must accept their shame, and commit to managing the twilight years of Crosby and the inevitable rebuild
 
Given that approach, and the fact that they moved him, its doubtful he returns. He was not prioritized, and he should have been.
Why though? They're headed for a rebuild in a couple years. Guentzel is already 30 by the time next season starts, and with the cap going up, should price himself at around 9M if the Meier contract is any indication.

It's one of those things that yes he makes the team better now, but long-term he's unlikely to play up to his potential without a top line center which will lower his value, and combined with his contract, it's not worth it.

If they were in a playoff spot then they definitely would've sacrificed these assets for one more chance to compete and go for it, but the teams play made this decision for Dubas to get the assets that he could. The Pens are not in a position to pass up futures.

The best case scenario for this trade actually looks pretty good if I'm being honest. Sure, the worst case is a tad underwhelming, but again, you have to assume it's the best offer they got. Dubas waited all the way to the end.

The reason I say best case is good is because the Canes have as good of a chance as anybody to go to the finals, and Bunting (who fits the Pens short-term plans of trying to stay competitive) can turn into a decent rental asset a couple years from now if he puts up 2nd line numbers. After retention that's a very affordable player and it'll be a contract year for him so the effort to have a good season is going to be there for sure. That could be as high as a 2nd rounder, like the Hawks got for Domi last year.
 
They basically got 3 2nds for a rental. I'm not upset about the return.

Would have preferred a solid 1st though, but it's a fine trade.
The best rental on the market, but that's not even the main point.

If the return was going to be that low, the Pens were better served keeping an elite winger they won't be able to replace than add mediocre prospect depth that likely won't help them much now or later.

I’m still confused. Was there a better offer out there? How did Dubas do a bad job getting one the best rental returns out there?
See above.
 
The best rental on the market, but that's not even the main point.

If the return was going to be that low, the Pens were better served keeping an elite winger they won't be able to replace than add mediocre prospect depth that likely won't help them much now or later.


See above.
But they couldn’t keep him. He was going to market. Signing Jake to a huge term extension does nothing for them, and I’ve read he was going to test the market anyways. Why are you assuming they could’ve re signed him?

Best rental return pretty much ever.
 
Why though? They're headed for a rebuild in a couple years. Guentzel is already 30 by the time next season starts, and with the cap going up, should price himself at around 9M if the Meier contract is any indication.

It's one of those things that yes he makes the team better now, but long-term he's unlikely to play up to his potential without a top line center which will lower his value, and combined with his contract, it's not worth it.

If they were in a playoff spot then they definitely would've sacrificed these assets for one more chance to compete and go for it, but the teams play made this decision for Dubas to get the assets that he could. The Pens are not in a position to pass up futures.

The best case scenario for this trade actually looks pretty good if I'm being honest. Sure, the worst case is a tad underwhelming, but again, you have to assume it's the best offer they got. Dubas waited all the way to the end.

The reason I say best case is good is because the Canes have as good of a chance as anybody to go to the finals, and Bunting (who fits the Pens short-term plans of trying to stay competitive) can turn into a decent rental asset a couple years from now if he puts up 2nd line numbers. After retention that's a very affordable player and it'll be a contract year for him so the effort to have a good season is going to be there for sure. That could be as high as a 2nd rounder, like the Hawks got for Domi last year.
If you trade Guentzel for Bunting, you are not truly trying to stay competitive for the next 2 years, whatever Dubas says.

The return they got sucked - they absolutely are in a position to pass on a mess of prospects with CEILINGS of bottom 6/top 6 3rd wheels if they truly wanted to compete for the rest of Crosby's time as a Penguin.
 
But they couldn’t keep him. He was going to market. Signing Jake to a huge term extension does nothing for them, and I’ve read he was going to test the market anyways. Why are you assuming they could’ve re signed him?

Best rental return pretty much ever.
Everything I've heard from Dubas himself and local beat writers suggests otherwise.

Where did you see he was intent on going to market? Link?
 
If you trade Guentzel for Bunting, you are not truly trying to stay competitive for the next 2 years, whatever Dubas says.

The return they got sucked - they absolutely are in a position to pass on a mess of prospects with CEILINGS of bottom 6/top 6 3rd wheels if they truly wanted to compete for the rest of Crosby's time as a Penguin.
Koivunen had 56 points in 59 games in Liiga as a 20 year old. Why would you assume that he has a bottom 6 ceiling?? He might be in Pittsburgh's bottom 6 next year, but his ceiling is absolutely top 6.

I also realize it's not sexy to bring up, but Bunting wasn't a cap dump here. He was on a 50 point pace for Carolina like last year in Toronto and he has hit 60 points in Toronto with great centers. And he will have great center play in Pittsburgh. Worst case scenario Bunting is another asset to flip for even more prospects in a year or 2.
 

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