Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part III]

[Junohockeyfan]

Where do the Canes intend to play KK? Left wing?

Click to read more...

 

[Jeune Poulet]

By design, a successful offer-sheet is only successful if the offer is an overpayment.

In a salary cap league, overpaying is not a success. It's a big fail.

This is another example of misunderstanding the purpose of offer sheets. It's not a tool for teams to poach players.

It's a tool for players who haven't reached complete autonomy yet to get proper compensation.

 

[PB37]

In a salary cap league, overpaying is not a success. It's a big fail.

This is another example of misunderstanding the purpose of offer sheets. It's not a tool for teams to poach players.

It's a tool for players who haven't reached complete autonomy yet to get proper compensation.

Is there a link to the design of the official purpose of offer sheets?

 

[goforit]

Ok... other than the OS stuff, which has been discussed for a couple of months now, is it possible to know how Kotkaniemi has played in Carolina training camp? I'm curious. Thanks.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Ok... other than the OS stuff, which has been discussed for a couple of months now, is it possible to know how Kotkaniemi has played in Carolina training camp? I'm curious. Thanks.

Gretzky-like. A god amongst gods.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

In a salary cap league, overpaying is not a success. It's a big fail.

Well, don't you agree that in this case, Carolina:
a) Had the cap space so it's irrelevant if they paid him $3M or $6M.
b) It's a 1 year deal, so it's not a fail as it relates to long term cap management, which is where overpaying in a salary cap league bites teams.

So in that light, it's not a "big fail". You can argue that it's not the best use of THIS YEAR's cap space, and that's a fair argument, although they tried to acquire a top 9 forward through UFA and trade and that didn't work out. Personally, as I've stated, I'm not a big fan of the move, but I don't see it as a "big fail" either. If they signed him to an offer sheet that was long term deal at that price, then I'd tend to agree more.

This is another example of misunderstanding the purpose of offer sheets. It's not a tool for teams to poach players.

It's a tool for players who haven't reached complete autonomy yet to get proper compensation.

Huh? If that was the only purpose of an offer sheet, then the clause wouldn't exist. It certainly is a tool for players to get improved compensation for sure, but it is 100% also a tool for a team to acquire a player that is a "free agent". In order for it to be successful, it has to be enough that another team won't match. It's not that complicated.

 

[goforit]

Gretzky-like. A god amongst gods.

I come here for that kind of stuff. Thanks for that valuable input!

 

[tarheelhockey]

Well, don't you agree that in this case, Carolina:
a) Had the cap space so it's irrelevant if they paid him $3M or $6M.
b) It's a 1 year deal, so it's not a fail as it relates to long term cap management, which is where overpaying in a salary cap league bites teams.

So in that light, it's not a "big fail".

Another way to look at it, in terms of value proposition is that they spent:
~$3M + 1st/3rd to have Kotkaniemi's services for the current season. This is basically a TDL deal with a little extra value on both sides from the fact that it's for 82 games, not 20.
~$3M for the fact that he is an RFA, not a UFA. This is the cost of doing business when it comes to offer sheets.

The latter is what makes this trade "expensive", but the alternatives were:
- Add another unsigned forward. That would be one of the guys like Galchenyuk or Gusev who is currently on a PTO just trying to make a roster.
- Sit on the cap space for the rest of the season, waiting to make a similar trade to the one they just made.

From a Canes POV, this was the most efficient option on the table for getting a player they actually wanted for a full season. Otherwise they would almost certainly be in a position of taking a lesser player, or sitting around waiting for an equal player with only a fraction of the season left. Ending up with a better player is highly unlikely, not because Kotkaniemi is something special, but because really good players don't normally get traded for only a 1st/3rd.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ok... other than the OS stuff, which has been discussed for a couple of months now, is it possible to know how Kotkaniemi has played in Carolina training camp? I'm curious. Thanks.

There's not much info about training camp as it's closed to the public so we are only getting blurbs from the press etc..
He's played in 1 pre-season game with Trochek and Teravainen. He looked "decent" 5v5, although his skating (as advertised) is awkward. Looked really good on a couple power plays where he could use his vision and skills. It was against a mostly AHL TB lightning team though so take it with a grain of salt.

I guess he scored in a team scrimmage the other day as well, but there wasn't much to read from that as it was just a team scrimmage.

He'll play tonight again. I envision that if they keep him on the wing, it will take a while to adjust to a new system, new coach, new position, and new teammates, so I'm not expecting much for the first 10 games or so. It will be after that where I feel we can make a better judgement.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

My biggest problem with the offer sheet is that Carolina blew their biggest TDL piece to pick up a giant question mark in Kotkaniemi. A veteran FA or even a small trade for a vet to be a place holder till the TDL or (slightly earlier) probably results in a better player for Carolina.

1st and 3rd at TDL gets you a more established, and probably better player with multiple prime years left. Boils down to I don't think Kotkaniemi is or will be a big enough difference maker this year compared to what a 1st and 3rd can get at the TDL.

Also, Carolina is not 100% guaranteed to make the playoffs. A good trade deadline pickup could also help swing what I believe will be a very tightly packed Metro division. Caps, Pens and Isles will all most likely make a TDL splash, and those all happen to be three of Carolina's biggest obstacles to getting one of the three auto Metro spots.

Except GMDW has been on record stating how the team is under the beliefs of not giving a 1st rounder for a rental. He’s said if he were to give up a 1st at the deadline they’d want it to be for someone with term that they’d want around for awhile. They did give up a 1st at tdl for Skjei, and he had term, is still with the team, and Carolina had an extra 1st to spare that year.

And while KK is on a 1 year contract, the circumstances of bringing him in is that he has upside, would still be under team control, and has the potential of being a core guy if he could develop right in Carolina. Carolina’s hoping for a Sam Bennett/Elias Lindholm type scenario

 

[goforit]

There's not much info about training camp as it's closed to the public so we are only getting blurbs from the press etc..
He's played in 1 pre-season game with Trochek and Teravainen. He looked "decent" 5v5, although his skating (as advertised) is awkward. Looked really good on a couple power plays where he could use his vision and skills. It was against a mostly AHL TB lightning team though so take it with a grain of salt.

I guess he scored in a team scrimmage the other day as well, but there wasn't much to read from that as it was just a team scrimmage.

He'll play tonight again. I envision that if they keep him on the wing, it will take a while to adjust to a new system, new coach, new position, and new teammates, so I'm not expecting much for the first 10 games or so. It will be after that where I feel we can make a better judgement.

Thanks for that man! Hope the best for him and the Canes!

 

[Foppberg]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Kotkaniemi go down as the best Hurricane of all time.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

Personally, as I've stated, I'm not a big fan of the move, but I don't see it as a "big fail" either. If they signed him to an offer sheet that was long term deal at that price, then I'd tend to agree more.

I too want to go on record as saying I'm not a big fan of the move overall. I feel like Carolina re-shuffled the deck as far as offseason acquirements go, which is not great considering GMDW's stated that he feels the team is in their window to compete. While ultimately Carolina is going to need for players like Svech, TT, Necas, and even Aho to elevate their game to get past the hump, they should've strengthened areas of their games by adding on to what they have instead of replacing guys we didn't to sign. However, I can see why Carolina did this. If KK can pan out to what he was projected to be, I could see this extending Carolina's window.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Kotkaniemi go down as the best Hurricane of all time.

It's a tie, technically. Kotkaniemi is a 2.0 PPG player in his Hurricanes history. He is tied with Hurricanes legend and hall of famer Morgan Geekie, who once sported a 2.0 PPG. Geekie might be better as Geekie had 1.50 goals per game too, and Kotkaniemi has a paltry 1.0 goals per game.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

Well, don't you agree that in this case, Carolina:
a) Had the cap space so it's irrelevant if they paid him $3M or $6M.
b) It's a 1 year deal, so it's not a fail as it relates to long term cap management, which is where overpaying in a salary cap league bites teams.

So in that light, it's not a "big fail". You can argue that it's not the best use of THIS YEAR's cap space, and that's a fair argument, although they tried to acquire a top 9 forward through UFA and trade and that didn't work out. Personally, as I've stated, I'm not a big fan of the move, but I don't see it as a "big fail" either. If they signed him to an offer sheet that was long term deal at that price, then I'd tend to agree more.

I don't know. I think the Hurricanes had something going. They are an intriguing team with potential. I see no reason why they wouldn't have had opportunities to tweak the lineup early in the season. Maybe some valuable players become available on the market, or someone's not working out that you need to replace.

Huh? If that was the only purpose of an offer sheet, then the clause wouldn't exist. It certainly is a tool for players to get improved compensation for sure, but it is 100% also a tool for a team to acquire a player that is a "free agent". In order for it to be successful, it has to be enough that another team won't match. It's not that complicated.

Yeah, it is complicated because if you overpay, you haven't added to your team, you have subtracted. That's the reality of a cap league. Lucic at 1M AAV ? Worth valuable picks. Lucic at 6M AAV? must pay pick to get rid of him. So yeah, it's not just about acquiring players. Anyone can do that. You have to get some bang for the buck or it's a fail.

You seem to misunderstand the system. The possibility of acquiring the player is mostly there to keep teams honest. You aren't free like a UFA yet, but you are given some tools to negotiate market value in the form of offers that can be matched. The compensation system is in place so that a stingy team can't tell a RFA first liner that they will stick to a 2.5M offer, because someone else will offer 7, 8,M easily, possibly more. Eventually, teams negotiate an honest deal with their RFAs or they match a reasonable offer. That's what the system is for. To make sure guys like Aho gets what they deserve. Not to lose picks for the privilege of paying a guy who can barely stand on his skates 6M.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't know. I think the Hurricanes had something going. They are an intriguing team with potential. I see no reason why they wouldn't have had opportunities to tweak the lineup early in the season. Maybe some valuable players become available on the market, or someone's not working out that you need to replace.

Maybe, but that's it. It's just a "maybe". There typically aren't a lot of early season tweaks available, outside of distressed assets, because most teams aren't selling. So that's the flip side. "maybe" they could have had an opportunity. Maybe not.

Yeah, it is complicated because if you overpay, you haven't added to your team, you have subtracted.

That's such nonsense. Canes added Kotkaniemi. You can rightfully say they could have spent the money better, but they have in no way "subtracted".

That's the reality of a cap league. Lucic at 1M AAV ? Worth valuable picks. Lucic at 6M AAV? must pay pick to get rid of him. So yeah, it's not just about acquiring players. Anyone can do that. You have to get some bang for the buck or it's a fail.

Totally irrelevant example. Kotkaniemi is 1 year, Lucic was long term. Not sure why you can't acknowledge that when talking about a salary cap environment because that is very important. If someone took a chance on Lucic after Boston for 1 year, it wouldn't have been a big deal at all. Canes needed a top 9 forward, had cap space and spent it.

You seem to misunderstand the system. The possibility of acquiring the player is mostly there to keep teams honest. You aren't free like a UFA yet, but you are given some tools to negotiate market value in the form of offers that can be matched. The compensation system is in place so that a stingy team can't tell a RFA first liner that they will stick to a 2.5M offer, because someone else will offer 7, 8,M easily, possibly more. Eventually, teams negotiate an honest deal with their RFAs or they match a reasonable offer. That's what the system is for. To make sure guys like Aho gets what they deserve. Not to lose picks for the privilege of paying a guy who can barely stand on his skates 6M.

LOL, how condescending of you.

Bergevin didn't make an offerseet to Aho so that Aho would get fairly paid. He did so to try and acquire him and made the upfront bonuses so large that he thought Dundon would balk at it. GMs don't care of other team's RFAs get "fairly paid". If they make an offer sheet, they are 100% trying to acquire that player. And if you want it to be successful, you have to make it in a way that the other team may balk (high upfront money in Aho's case, overpayment in Kotkaniemi's case).

Yes, the RFA offer sheet is a tool for RFAs to use to get fairly compensated, but no GM is going to make an offer sheet without thinking he can acquire the guy.

Anyhow, I've stated my position and I am done on it. We'll just disagree and move on as neither will change our views. I'm not a big fan of the move so hopefully it will turn out, just disagree with your assessment of the situation.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Because trading away a 1st round pick for a rental is a terrible move no one should ever make? Worst case scenario KK scores 5 pts over 82 games and gets put on waivers. Most likely scenario he scores 40 pts, team is a bubble playoff team.

Unless you mean that pick ends up being a top 5 pick. Then yes that may haunt them until that player retires.

Worse gambles have been made, for less games, for first rounders. I seriously doubt Carolina isn't a playoff team which makes the pick worth the exchange easily.

 

[ismelofhockey]

I don’t agree people saw Zadina more at three than Tkachuk and that Tkachuk was considered more of a top ten guy.

2018 NHL Mock Draft | 2018 NHL Draft | NHL Draft (mynhldraft.com) Tkachuk at 7
2018 NHL Draft Rankings - HockeyProspect.com Tkachuk 3
2018 NHL Draft Rankings: Final Top 100 - The Puck Authority Tkachuk at 15
2018 NHL Draft Rankings | Scouching (wordpress.com) Tkachuk at 11
2018 NHL Draft Final Consensus Rankings (thehockeywriters.com) Tkachuk at 4
Kotkaniemi surges into top five of TSN Draft Ranking - TSN.ca Tkachuk at 3, but MacKenzie says Zadina could go 3rd just as well
NHL Draft big board: Final rankings of top 100 prospects in 2018 class | Sporting News Tkachuk 7

It wasn't clear cut. Tkachuk had his believers and so did Zadina.

 

[jfhabs]

Another way to look at it, in terms of value proposition is that they spent:
~$3M + 1st/3rd to have Kotkaniemi's services for the current season. This is basically a TDL deal with a little extra value on both sides from the fact that it's for 82 games, not 20.
~$3M for the fact that he is an RFA, not a UFA. This is the cost of doing business when it comes to offer sheets.

The latter is what makes this trade "expensive", but the alternatives were:
- Add another unsigned forward. That would be one of the guys like Galchenyuk or Gusev who is currently on a PTO just trying to make a roster.
- Sit on the cap space for the rest of the season, waiting to make a similar trade to the one they just made.

From a Canes POV, this was the most efficient option on the table for getting a player they actually wanted for a full season. Otherwise they would almost certainly be in a position of taking a lesser player, or sitting around waiting for an equal player with only a fraction of the season left. Ending up with a better player is highly unlikely, not because Kotkaniemi is something special, but because really good players don't normally get traded for only a 1st/3rd.

Dvorak is a better player right now and signed for less. Significant part of the decision was to get back at Bergevin/Molson for the Aho offersheet. It wasn't the optimal decision hockey or cap management wise imo.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Dvorak is a better player right now and signed for less. Significant part of the decision was to get back at Bergevin/Molson for the Aho offersheet. It wasn't the optimal decision hockey or cap management wise imo.

He was only "cheaper" in the monetary sense, as it cost the Habs more in assets to get Dvorak than it did for the Canes to get Kotaniemi.

Notably, in Montreal's dream scenario where the Canes implode and miss the playoffs, ramping up the value of their 1st which was traded to Montreal, that 1st will end up with Arizona rather than the Habs because of the Dvorak trade.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Dvorak is a better player right now and signed for less. Significant part of the decision was to get back at Bergevin/Molson for the Aho offersheet. It wasn't the optimal decision hockey or cap management wise imo.

Pretty sure it was actually mainly because the GM-Borg identified Kotkaniemi as a target they wanted to acquire (we love distressed assets or finding a value player). Habs were asking for way more than he was worth, and Canes actually found the le'hostile offre (1st + 3rd) to be cheaper...it also happened to work out that they could throw a few petty jabs in from the Aho OS. It would be bad business to do an OS like that strictly as a vengeance move, rather the stars just happened to align nicely for them in this instance

 

[tarheelhockey]

Pretty sure it was actually mainly because the GM-Borg identified Kotkaniemi as a target they wanted to acquire (we love distressed assets or finding a value player). Habs were asking for way more than he was worth, and Canes actually found the le'hostile offre (1st + 3rd) to be cheaper...it also happened to work out that they could throw a few petty jabs in from the Aho OS. It would be bad business to do an OS like that strictly as a vengeance move, rather the stars just happened to align nicely for them in this instance

I think the Aho offer sheet actually did factor in, but not the way the "revenge" narrative has it framed.

The one major reason not to use offer sheets is the cartel-like silent agreement that it's simply not done. That unwritten rule keeps RFAs from getting any traction with contract demands, which ultimately lets teams squeeze them and sign them cheap. If teams start going after each other with offer sheets, it's mutually assured destruction for everyone when their own RFAs come up for renewal.

Prior to the Aho offer sheet, maybe the Canes identify the potential to go after Kotkaniemi, but back off for the sake of maintaining the truce. But once Bergevin crossed that line, there was no longer a truce to uphold. I can very much believe that Dundon told his front office to consider Habs RFAs open for poaching if a desirable situation were to come up, and Kotkaniemi happened to fall into the parameters.

If that's true (and it's my speculation, but I believe consistent with the facts and with Dundon's business philosophy) it's not a matter of revenge. It's a matter of "if you're not going to observe the unwritten rules which save us money on RFAs, then **** it I'm coming after yours as aggressively as possible".

 

[Theodore450]

He was only "cheaper" in the monetary sense, as it cost the Habs more in assets to get Dvorak than it did for the Canes to get Kotaniemi.

Notably, in Montreal's dream scenario where the Canes implode and miss the playoffs, ramping up the value of their 1st which was traded to Montreal, that 1st will end up with Arizona rather than the Habs because of the Dvorak trade.

That’s false. The top 10 potential pick that you gave up is definitely worth more. Season can collapse easy and teams just don’t go around dropping 1st that are unprotected before the season starts and the team is truly viewed.

remember when the islanders added Vanek? We’ve come a long way since then. This trade can turn out any way, but let’s not pretend dvorak costed more

 

[Tryamw]

That’s false. The top 10 potential pick that you gave up is definitely worth more. Season can collapse easy and teams just don’t go around dropping 1st that are unprotected before the season starts and the team is truly viewed.

remember when the islanders added Vanek? We’ve come a long way since then. This trade can turn out any way, but let’s not pretend dvorak costed more

Unless the Hurricanes Pick is top 10 Dvorak cost more 1st and 2nd vs 1st and third. I would assume this is considered factual. Now if it's top 10 Then they are trading a not as high pick and a second.
Note I concur that this is possible I think it's unlikely however..

 

[tarheelhockey]

That’s false. The top 10 potential pick that you gave up is definitely worth more. Season can collapse easy and teams just don’t go around dropping 1st that are unprotected before the season starts and the team is truly viewed.

remember when the islanders added Vanek? We’ve come a long way since then. This trade can turn out any way, but let’s not pretend dvorak costed more

It would take a hell of a collapse for the Canes to drop that far. They finished 3rd overall last season. This year, a top-10 pick means finishing 23rd or lower. The Canes might not be as strong as last year, but surely they are still one of the twenty two best teams in the league.

If they finish 24th, guess who gets that 11th overall pick? Arizona. You want to talk about a costly trade, that would be a costly trade. So be careful what you wish for in terms of hoping for the Canes to struggle. It doesn't make the Habs look better if Carolina bombs the season and then you miss the payoff because you traded that pick away for Kotkaniemi's (your #3OA) replacement.

Even if we view the 1st round picks as a wash, it's a simple fact that a 2nd is worth more than a 3rd. So yes, in everything but monetary terms Dvorak did cost more to acquire.