Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR] F Seth Jarvis signs extension with the Hurricanes (8 years, $7.420087M AAV; deferred salary in 9th year)

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Dec 30, 2013
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How did you determine a discount rate to bring down the NPV of the Y7 lump sum bonus payment of 4.55M to 4.03?

Is there a standard rate used by NHL for cap purposes on deferred payments based on year of payment (PV table type thing)?
LIBOR + 1.25 is what the CBA states, so presumably it is SOFR + 1.25.

The 8/29 rate was 5.33% so I assume it will be ~6.58% a year.

No idea what the Jarvis deferred bonus will be, but I think a $4,000,000 year one payment deferred to year nine would be worth $2,659,869, or around $332,000/year.

I, however, am running on one hour of sleep today, so I could be way off :laugh:
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
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Zito didn't manipulate numbers
He didn't say "best" GM, he said smartest.

In my 34 year career in IT/Tech, there were guys way smarter than me that weren't as good at the job as I was. And there were guys not as smart as me that were better at the job than I was.

Smart (IQ / Intelligence) doesn't guarantee success in a job.

Zito is clearly a better GM right now, without question. Tulsky hasn't proven anything as a GM yet, but the guy is very, very smart. Will it translate to being a good GM? Who knows.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
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The more and more of this crap we get, the more and more I hate the salary cap.

When it was a set of rules for valuing players and constraining team building, with a goal for cost certainty and fairness between big and small market teams, it was actually pretty fun. It put GM's in the driver's seats of their team's competitiveness, which is a downside to an actual ice hockey league, but it was fun from a fan perspective for those of us who enjoy team-building.

But the longer it goes on, the more it becomes about having teams of lawyers pouring over the CBA to find and exploit loopholes until the NHL decides to pounce, the less fun it is. I like the NHL because I want to watch hockey teams, not GM's having a scheme-off like it's Spy vs Spy.

Close the freaking loopholes and enforce the spirit of the cap, not just the law. Having a Byzantine tax code of a salary cap is no fun for fans because we cannot follow it, doesn't even deliver the cost certainty that is the fundamental premise of the salary cap from the owner's perspective, and is ultimately unfair because the NHL will always be subjective in who they punish for transgressions.

The Tanev contract is bogus. Mark Stone going on LTIR every year until the playoffs is bogus. These deferred payments are bogus. End them. But instead the league is just going to shrug and then have a lockout in five years when they realize these deferred payments have completely screwed up the Hockey Related Revenue calculations for the salary cap and that it led to an immediate inflation of contracts.
The cap itself isn’t the issue though. And you noted correctly it has lots of benefits.

The issue here is the NHL is an incompetent joke of an organization that can’t write solid rules that can’t be gamed by loopholes.

For example, the NBA has a salary cap, huge salaries for Star players and injuries as well. But when a high salaried, Star player gets injured their rules for LTIR-type situations don’t invite the gaming/cheating we see in the NHL. The rule itself was written in a way where it can’t be gamed. Common sense requirements in the rule like an NBA lead investigation of the injury is written right into the rule, in the NHLs version it’s optional.
 
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Malkinstheman

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Aug 12, 2012
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As a player it doesn't make sense to go down this deferred salary path imo. The time value of money of loss is too great and the cap savings are so minimal. The Canes are only saving 500k on the cap by deferring. The player is till better off front loading the contracts and getting most of it in bonuses.

Any smart agent should and will tell the team to kick rocks if they propose something like this tbh.
 

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Jun 12, 2006
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The issue here is the NHL is an incompetent joke of an organization that can’t write solid rules that can’t be gamed by loopholes.
While the NHL can indeed be a "joke" (cough, cough, Dept. of Player Safety, cough, cough), it's not a loophole if is explicitly included in the CBA.

It's the same thing when people decry tax loopholes. It's part of the law, so describing it as a loophole is incorrect. Don't like it, then vote for people who will change it.

And much like taxes, GMs should take every advantage that the CBA allows.
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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While the NHL can indeed be a "joke" (cough, cough, Dept. of Player Safety, cough, cough), it's not a loophole if is explicitly included in the CBA.

It's the same thing when people decry tax loopholes. It's part of the law, so describing it as a loophole is incorrect. Don't like it, then vote for people who will change it.

And much like taxes, GMs should take every advantage that the CBA allows.
It’s true loopholes exist in taxes and the CBA. And using that loophole doesn’t make it illegal. But whether or not that loophole was intended is a different discussion. The LTIR rules set in the CBA for example were meant to allow teams to still compete in the playoffs if to one of their key players happened. It also allows injured players to get back into the season.

It wasn’t intended to give teams a Cap advantage though. That’s an unintended result of a poorly written LTIR rule.
 
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MasterofGrond

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Feb 13, 2009
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As a player it doesn't make sense to go down this deferred salary path imo. The time value of money of loss is too great and the cap savings are so minimal. The Canes are only saving 500k on the cap by deferring. The player is till better off front loading the contracts and getting most of it in bonuses.

Any smart agent should and will tell the team to kick rocks if they propose something like this tbh.
There are advantages to the player and team beyond the specific number. Players may benefit from a tax perspective if they leave a high tax jurisdiction post playing career. Ownership may prefer to dump the money down to a time they don’t plan to own the team anymore, Nats style.

It’s just a question of math, it’s possible a team makes an offer that is financially advantageous to the player compared to their “straight” offer. I wonder if the non deferred option was a good bit lower than 60M.
 

Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
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So would deferred payments count against the players share of HRR for escrow? Would they be subject to clawback as well? Could see this causing escrow to skyrocket again if so which was a major issue for players before.
Of course it would count. They are getting a paycheck for hockey

So that means that the cap hit for year 9 is 3.2 million? (.4×8)
 
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Cool structure, I guess a learned something today.

Does someone smarter than me have a good guess how/who sourced this? Some options and none of them really make sense (to me):
1. Probably not the Canes, looks like they did something similar with Slavin and that was not reported, plus if you're doing something you think is smart, rule #1 is you don't say anything (but it was a nice PR if the goal is to look smart)
2. Seravalli clearly has a source or 2 in the league office going back to expansion draft at least - but that said this was a relatively complex deal and maybe more sensitive with leaking post-Marek? Also awful day in the NHL yesterday and LDW, so timing is pretty crude/weird at best.
3. Competing Agent? Assuming teams will start to offer these more and could marginally grow the pie? That said, Jarvis did them a solid, agents/players like cash up from for good reason
4. Competing Team? Not a great look for other teams to have another team be the first to advertise a cap "loop-hole"
 

Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
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So how would a comparable contract for Leon Draisaitl work for the Oilers?

What's the max amount they could defer on a otherwise 13 or 14 million contract for example?

What if they deferral period was longer than just contract term + 1 year? Is there a limit to how long you can defer for? In this Jarvis case it looks like they just deferred some salary into an extra 1 year.
 

Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
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As a player it doesn't make sense to go down this deferred salary path imo. The time value of money of loss is too great and the cap savings are so minimal. The Canes are only saving 500k on the cap by deferring. The player is till better off front loading the contracts and getting most of it in bonuses.

Any smart agent should and will tell the team to kick rocks if they propose something like this tbh.

Depends on tax issues. Ohtani didn't agree to a deferred contract with the Dodgers out of the goodness of his heart, he knows full well if he defers salary he can avoid paying an extra 14% in tax just by moving to a tax free state other than California after he retires. He could save even more than that if he moves out of the US entirely and has a primary residence in say ... Dubai or something. He could still spend most of the year in the US or Japan or where ever.
 

RCGP2

Registered User
Mar 8, 2018
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He didn't say "best" GM, he said smartest.

In my 34 year career in IT/Tech, there were guys way smarter than me that weren't as good at the job as I was. And there were guys not as smart as me that were better at the job than I was.

Smart (IQ / Intelligence) doesn't guarantee success in a job.

Zito is clearly a better GM right now, without question. Tulsky hasn't proven anything as a GM yet, but the guy is very, very smart. Will it translate to being a good GM? Who knows.
Oh I'm sorry I didn't realise all the GMs took an IQ test, please post the results so I don't make the same mistake next time.
 

tsujimoto74

Moderator
May 28, 2012
30,355
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While the NHL can indeed be a "joke" (cough, cough, Dept. of Player Safety, cough, cough), it's not a loophole if is explicitly included in the CBA.

It's the same thing when people decry tax loopholes. It's part of the law, so describing it as a loophole is incorrect. Don't like it, then vote for people who will change it.

And much like taxes, GMs should take every advantage that the CBA allows.

Loopholes only aren’t loopholes if they’re intentional. Accidental oversight creating room for manipulation/abuse is still a loophole.
 

AcerComputer

Registered User
Aug 4, 2014
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As a player it doesn't make sense to go down this deferred salary path imo. The time value of money of loss is too great and the cap savings are so minimal. The Canes are only saving 500k on the cap by deferring. The player is till better off front loading the contracts and getting most of it in bonuses.

Any smart agent should and will tell the team to kick rocks if they propose something like this tbh.
If Matthews, Marner, Taves, Rielly, Nylander all did this, the Leafs would have an extra $2.5 in cap space this whole time.
 

Petes2424

Registered User
Aug 4, 2005
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Before everyone starts congratulating the Canes for finding a new loophole, and fans start trying to figure out how their team can circumvent this new loophole, take a step back and ask yourself why teams don’t do more deferred contracts?

This is nothing new. Teams know all about them.

There’s probably 20-30 of them currently. The problem is, the higher the salary, the least likely a player would accept deferred bonuses.

There’s going to be some upset agents with Jarvis’ agent. Namely Lucas Raymond’s agent, because now Detroit may try pushing deferred payments in their negotiations, since Jarvis and Raymond have been watching each other’s negotiations all summer.

There’s 2 major reasons we don’t have more deferred contracts.

First…. Players/agents don’t want to wait for their money, AND secondly, the cap or AAV savings, isn’t as much as people are thinking it can be. It’s only triggered when there’s an annual deferred bonus, and that’s then divided by the term of any deal.

So for all those Edmonton fans trying to figure out how they can sign Leon and add another $5 million dman, don’t get your hopes up. Even if Leon took half of $14 million in deferred payments, you still only save $875k on his AAV.

Most players don’t want anything to do with “deferred money.” In fact, that’s why they want signing bonuses up front, and every July 1.

That really is the main reason.

The second big reason is, the team can only save a relatively small % of AAV because a player would never agree to massive amounts being deferred. No different than you or I. We all wanna get paid for working. I’m not sticking around if my boss keeps wanting to pay me next January, for working in August.

The AAV only effects the team, not the player. Players may say they care (so fans think they’re really good guys lol) but they don’t care in the grand scheme of things. They wanna get paid.

Lucas Raymond’s agent for example, is likely NOT happy with the Jarvis contract. Because it makes it look like Jarvis settled for deferred payment. Raymond’s agent would much rather have a $7.9 AAV with any bonus money starting the day the contract is signed. Where Detroit might now be saying, look, we’ll give you $8 million per so it’s more than Jarvis, but with a $5 million per year deferred payment. Which would make his AAV $7.375 rather than $8 million.

From what I understand about deferred payments, and give me somewhat of a pass, as it’s been at least 15 years since I was briefed on this.. That 9th year only comes into play when there’s an annual deferred payment built into the contract. I also believe, there’s a capped percentage for those payments. Whether that’s 40% or 50%, I’m pretty certain that’s the case. I’ll have to confirm that with people who would know.

Regardless, the better the player, the more he can demand contract terms, and getting his money later, isn’t high on his list.

In this Raymond example, I used over 50% of his deal. In the Jarvis deal, it’s 40%.

It also can’t be lump sums either. For example, you can’t pay someone $1 a year for 8 years, and then $49,999,992 in the 9th year of a $50 Million contract. Obviously the player wouldn’t agree to it either.

Let’s say that player would agree to a $5 million deferred bonus each year though. That final $5 million payment would then be divided by 8 ($625k) and that number would then be deducted from his yearly AAV. So instead of having a $6.25 AAV, it would be $5.625 million.

Once again though, if I remember correctly, there’s a cap on the percentage. But still, even pretending the player is only taking $1.25 million per season and the rest in deferred money, you’re STILL only saving $625k on the AAV.

No player that’s being offered a $50 million deal, is gonna agree to that.

So if you tried doing it with Draisaitl let’s say. If you had him defer $5 million per year of a $14 million contract, his AAV would still be $13.375 million. Let’s say he did the same 40% Jarvis did. It would only take his AAV down to $13.3 million.

Once again, I believe there’s a cap on the percentage of money you can defer, but even if Draisaitl deferred half of his pay, his AAV would STILL only go down to $13.125 million AAV.

So even if one of the Top players in the league took half of his pay in deferred bonuses, his AAV doesn’t even drop $1 million.

That’s why we don’t see it much. Players just aren’t willing to accept deferred payments and it doesn’t help teams, as much as people think it could, because to trigger that 9th year of payments, he has to have a yearly deferred bonus in the contract, and that’s what they get to use, divided by the contract’s term.

At the end of the day, we probably won’t get an answer to why Jarvis agreed to 40% of his salary being deferred. I guarantee his agent’s text messages blew up from other agents with one word. “Why?”

Do the Canes have liquidity issues? Maybe so. Maybe they can only spend a certain amount in bonus money per season, and this season is already capped out. It would be a logical thing anyway. Maybe Jarvis just thought, no bid deal, I’ll ultimately get the money anyway and he loves playing there. Who knows.

One thing’s for certain. You’re not gonna start seeing more deferred payments now. Maybe you will in Carolina as they keep trying to keep high-end players more than previously, but overall? Players around the league aren’t gonna do it.

It’ll be interesting to see Raymond’s new deal though, because people have had these two contracts connected all summer. So if Raymond wants the $7.9, will Detroit give it to him but with deferred money, to match Jarvis? We’ll see.
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
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You have some good points and some errors. A few errors which stood out to me:

- Jarvis is deferring less than 25% of his contract, not 40%.
- There is no limit on the % of deferred compensation in the CBA.
- The CBA allows the possibility to actually pay a player $1 per year over 8 years with a lump sum $49m+ in year 9. The contract would have to assign the deferred money over years 1-8 with a distribution complying to CBA contract variation limits. The actual AAV of the contract would depend on the deferred money details.

Your major theme I fully agree with is this isn’t automatically beneficial or preferred by players. In fact I suspect deferred payments would on average be more beneficial to the team than the player.
 

Derailed75

Registered User
Jan 5, 2021
5,132
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Danville
Before everyone starts congratulating the Canes for finding a new loophole, and fans start trying to figure out how their team can circumvent this new loophole, take a step back and ask yourself why teams don’t do more deferred contracts?

This is nothing new. Teams know all about them.

There’s probably 20-30 of them currently. The problem is, the higher the salary, the least likely a player would accept deferred bonuses.

There’s going to be some upset agents with Jarvis’ agent. Namely Lucas Raymond’s agent, because now Detroit may try pushing deferred payments in their negotiations, since Jarvis and Raymond have been watching each other’s negotiations all summer.

There’s 2 major reasons we don’t have more deferred contracts.

First…. Players/agents don’t want to wait for their money, AND secondly, the cap or AAV savings, isn’t as much as people are thinking it can be. It’s only triggered when there’s an annual deferred bonus, and that’s then divided by the term of any deal.

So for all those Edmonton fans trying to figure out how they can sign Leon and add another $5 million dman, don’t get your hopes up. Even if Leon took half of $14 million in deferred payments, you still only save $875k on his AAV.

Most players don’t want anything to do with “deferred money.” In fact, that’s why they want signing bonuses up front, and every July 1.

That really is the main reason.

The second big reason is, the team can only save a relatively small % of AAV because a player would never agree to massive amounts being deferred. No different than you or I. We all wanna get paid for working. I’m not sticking around if my boss keeps wanting to pay me next January, for working in August.

The AAV only effects the team, not the player. Players may say they care (so fans think they’re really good guys lol) but they don’t care in the grand scheme of things. They wanna get paid.

Lucas Raymond’s agent for example, is likely NOT happy with the Jarvis contract. Because it makes it look like Jarvis settled for deferred payment. Raymond’s agent would much rather have a $7.9 AAV with any bonus money starting the day the contract is signed. Where Detroit might now be saying, look, we’ll give you $8 million per so it’s more than Jarvis, but with a $5 million per year deferred payment. Which would make his AAV $7.375 rather than $8 million.

From what I understand about deferred payments, and give me somewhat of a pass, as it’s been at least 15 years since I was briefed on this.. That 9th year only comes into play when there’s an annual deferred payment built into the contract. I also believe, there’s a capped percentage for those payments. Whether that’s 40% or 50%, I’m pretty certain that’s the case. I’ll have to confirm that with people who would know.

Regardless, the better the player, the more he can demand contract terms, and getting his money later, isn’t high on his list.

In this Raymond example, I used over 50% of his deal. In the Jarvis deal, it’s 40%.

It also can’t be lump sums either. For example, you can’t pay someone $1 a year for 8 years, and then $49,999,992 in the 9th year of a $50 Million contract. Obviously the player wouldn’t agree to it either.

Let’s say that player would agree to a $5 million deferred bonus each year though. That final $5 million payment would then be divided by 8 ($625k) and that number would then be deducted from his yearly AAV. So instead of having a $6.25 AAV, it would be $5.625 million.

Once again though, if I remember correctly, there’s a cap on the percentage. But still, even pretending the player is only taking $1.25 million per season and the rest in deferred money, you’re STILL only saving $625k on the AAV.

No player that’s being offered a $50 million deal, is gonna agree to that.

So if you tried doing it with Draisaitl let’s say. If you had him defer $5 million per year of a $14 million contract, his AAV would still be $13.375 million. Let’s say he did the same 40% Jarvis did. It would only take his AAV down to $13.3 million.

Once again, I believe there’s a cap on the percentage of money you can defer, but even if Draisaitl deferred half of his pay, his AAV would STILL only go down to $13.125 million AAV.

So even if one of the Top players in the league took half of his pay in deferred bonuses, his AAV doesn’t even drop $1 million.

That’s why we don’t see it much. Players just aren’t willing to accept deferred payments and it doesn’t help teams, as much as people think it could, because to trigger that 9th year of payments, he has to have a yearly deferred bonus in the contract, and that’s what they get to use, divided by the contract’s term.

At the end of the day, we probably won’t get an answer to why Jarvis agreed to 40% of his salary being deferred. I guarantee his agent’s text messages blew up from other agents with one word. “Why?”

Do the Canes have liquidity issues? Maybe so. Maybe they can only spend a certain amount in bonus money per season, and this season is already capped out. It would be a logical thing anyway. Maybe Jarvis just thought, no bid deal, I’ll ultimately get the money anyway and he loves playing there. Who knows.

One thing’s for certain. You’re not gonna start seeing more deferred payments now. Maybe you will in Carolina as they keep trying to keep high-end players more than previously, but overall? Players around the league aren’t gonna do it.

It’ll be interesting to see Raymond’s new deal though, because people have had these two contracts connected all summer. So if Raymond wants the $7.9, will Detroit give it to him but with deferred money, to match Jarvis? We’ll see.

Thats a whole lot of letters to say some people place some things above money. Kinda like Jose Ramirez for the Cleveland Guardians. He could have added a lot of money to his contract signing somewhere else, and I'm sure it pissed off a lot of his fellow players that he took a much lower offer, but he has priorities in life and money was not the top factor.

Maybe Jarvis is the same way?
 
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HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
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131
LIBOR + 1.25 is what the CBA states, so presumably it is SOFR + 1.25.

The 8/29 rate was 5.33% so I assume it will be ~6.58% a year.

No idea what the Jarvis deferred bonus will be, but I think a $4,000,000 year one payment deferred to year nine would be worth $2,659,869, or around $332,000/year.

I, however, am running on one hour of sleep today, so I could be way off :laugh:

You have some good points and some errors. A few errors which stood out to me:

- Jarvis is deferring less than 25% of his contract, not 40%.
- There is no limit on the % of deferred compensation in the CBA.
- The CBA allows the possibility to actually pay a player $1 per year over 8 years with a lump sum $49m+ in year 9. The contract would have to assign the deferred money over years 1-8 with a distribution complying to CBA contract variation limits. The actual AAV of the contract would depend on the deferred money details.

Your major theme I fully agree with is this isn’t automatically beneficial or preferred by players. In fact I suspect deferred payments would on average be more beneficial to the team than the player.
Another major factor in "WHY" we don't see this more often is the interest rate environment.

It has only been recently (the last 18-24 months) that most indexed rates have jumped over 5% to create a big enough delta in the NPV of 8 years of deferred comp to have any significant AAV "savings".

The exact same contract for Jarvis under a 3% lower rate environment would have only netted $2 million in AAV savings over 8 years instead of the $3.2 million that it did under today's interest rate environment.
 
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Broberg Speed

Registered User
Oct 23, 2020
7,987
5,366
You have some good points and some errors. A few errors which stood out to me:

- Jarvis is deferring less than 25% of his contract, not 40%.
- There is no limit on the % of deferred compensation in the CBA.
- The CBA allows the possibility to actually pay a player $1 per year over 8 years with a lump sum $49m+ in year 9. The contract would have to assign the deferred money over years 1-8 with a distribution complying to CBA contract variation limits. The actual AAV of the contract would depend on the deferred money details.

Your major theme I fully agree with is this isn’t automatically beneficial or preferred by players. In fact I suspect deferred payments would on average be more beneficial to the team than the player.
If the player ends up getting "paid more overall" from a contract which includes deferred bonuses than he would have received from a regular non-deferred bonus contract I fail to see how the player doesn't benefit.

Some teams will be willing to pay exceptional players more within the framework of loaded contractual future bonuses if they can lower the cap hit and ice a better hockey team because of this. Of course the player benefits as well as the club.
 

TLEH

Pronounced T-Lay
Feb 28, 2015
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The reason you don't see this more is that deferring money that could be making you more money doesn't really make sense for a player to do.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
132
131
The reason you don't see this more is that deferring money that could be making you more money doesn't really make sense for a player to do.
It's not as simple as the player choosing the same $ amount now vs later. The team is not offering him that full amount within the 8 year term and can't fit it under the cap.

Choose one:
1) You get $15,670,000 in 8 years +1 day
2) $3,074,796 today + $3,288,177 in a year + $5,467,722 in 8 years = total of $11,830,695
 

TLEH

Pronounced T-Lay
Feb 28, 2015
20,577
17,109
Bomoseen, Vermont
It's not as simple as the player choosing the same $ amount now vs later. The team is not offering him that full amount within the 8 year term and can't fit it under the cap.

Choose one:
1) You get $15,670,000 in 8 years +1 day
2) $3,074,796 today + $3,288,177 in a year + $5,467,722 in 8 years = total of $11,830,695
I'm taking the one that pays me the most money as early as possible. Inflation in 9 years will make those dollars less, also minus the money that he could have earned investing it. He's an elite player, its not like he had to do this to get more money. He could have gotten an 8x8 right now and it would have been fine and I think he'll only get better.

The deal he took really helps the team (and makes him set for life, along with his kids kids, so its obviously sweet either way).
 

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